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Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

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  • #81
    Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Originally posted by michael777 View Post
    Go eat some real man's food





    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

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    • #82
      Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

      Your Small Potatoes

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      • #83
        Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

        Interesting dilemma for the owners of Audible since they are also principal owners of Justify. Do you enter Audible & compromise Justify's chances & future breeding value?
        The art of learning is learning who to ignore ~LeAnn Rimes

        Comment


        • #84
          Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

          Originally posted by Heim View Post
          Interesting dilemma for the owners of Audible since they are also principal owners of Justify. Do you enter Audible & compromise Justify's chances & future breeding value?
          Audible could be entered as an insurance policy if Justify is over the top,and shows up just to draw a crowd and generate interest.If not 100% Justify can be entered make an appearance and not be pushed too far on the track,Audible would then be the real go horse for the connections.Justify would still have earned his stripes running in all 3 TC races, and Audible gets a breeding boost too if he can win the Belmont...

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          • #85
            Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

            Justify is worth a hundred million(100,000,000) dollars WITHOUT running in the Belmont.

            The only way they put Justify on the track three(3) weeks from now is if he intends to win the race.

            Having Justify to show up at Belmont to run a flat race to somehow draw in the crowds is laughable.


            Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

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            • #86
              Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

              Justify will win

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              • #87
                Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                its trainer-speak do with it what you will

                “He did something totally different yesterday. He got challenged early. Good Magic was pushing him out the whole way,” Baffert said. “He had a five-eighths run, so that's probably why he didn't have a lot of kick at the end. But Mike said he could have won by more. When he knew he had it he just coasted to the wire. When he was pulling up and the horses came to him, he takes off again. It was close, but for him, what he's done – fifth race – it's pretty incredible.”

                “I think the Belmont will be easier on him, the way it's set up,” said Baffert, who trains Justify for WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, Starlight Racing and Head of Plains Partners.
                Baffert made three failed attempts to pull off a sweep of the Triple Crown with Derby and Preakness winners Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and War Emblem (2002) before getting the job done in 2015 with American Pharoah, who ended a 37-year Triple Crown drought that followed Affirmed's successful bid in the 1978 Belmont. American Pharoah's success makes the Triple Crown challenge somewhat less daunting.
                “I think it's a little bit different. Before we'd go there thinking it's going to be so difficult. Something always goes wrong. I just feel with this horse, he's so talented, something can go wrong and he'd still win,” Baffert said. “He's a superior horse. Yesterday, they tried something different and he handled it. He's not one-dimensional.”

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                • #88
                  Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                  Agree with most of that. Smith had the horse in hand late and admitted to never seeing Bravazo. This could have been a disastrous mistake. Watching the replay he definitely had Tenfold measured. Can't get a decent view of the gallop out but Smith said Justify re-broke when he saw Bravazo.
                  Any contributions greatly appreciated
                  http://fullertoncares.com/
                  http://www.sctbrescue.org/

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                  • #89
                    Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                    Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                    Let me re-think my position for a moment.

                    Would Baffert scratch a horse on the doorstep of racing immortality?
                    I'll Have Another
                    Any contributions greatly appreciated
                    http://fullertoncares.com/
                    http://www.sctbrescue.org/

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                    • #90
                      Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                      Baffert also said during the post game that he was blowing after the race and he looked a little heavy in the paddock from them going so easy on him between races

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                      • #91
                        Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                        I also think what happened to Bolt D'oro and Good Magic will help Justify in the Belmont. No trainer is now going to want to run early with Justify after seeing the consequences of trying to do so.
                        Any contributions greatly appreciated
                        http://fullertoncares.com/
                        http://www.sctbrescue.org/

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                        • #92
                          Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                          Chad Brown was pissed after the race at Ortiz...see how that manifests itself down the road

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                          • #93
                            Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                            Originally posted by The Meatman View Post
                            Because Justify will run a different race going twelve(12) furlongs.

                            These "supposed" closers NEVER show up in the Belmont.

                            Other than Victory Gallop of course.


                            Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
                            The Meatman nailed it. The Belmont is rarely a closers race.

                            Comment


                            • #94
                              Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                              He is a proverbial stick if he gets way with :48 and :12 and change, and his most lily upsetter (Audible) won't run of course. Unless someone enters an antagonist he might have it real easy.

                              Comment


                              • #95
                                Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                Originally posted by jasson621 View Post
                                He is a proverbial stick if he gets way with :48 and :12 and change, and his most lily upsetter (Audible) won't run of course. Unless someone enters an antagonist he might have it real easy.
                                Have to think Audible would get a big shot in the race. Pletcher prioritizes the Belmont, and has won it 3 times since 2007.

                                Some real mediocre horses have won the Belmont: Tapwrit, Creator, Ruler on Ice, Da Tara, Jazil, and Tonalist among others in recent years.

                                Comment


                                • #96
                                  Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                  I have to see who else is going to run but this horse has made me some coin. Not only in the derby and Preakness but by taking field in pool 1(4.40) and pool 2 (7.00)

                                  Comment


                                  • #97
                                    Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                    horses bred by into Mischief have never won a race longer than 1 mile and 3/16 (he obviously has a couple winners at 1 mile 1/8) . against this top set of 3 year olds will Audible really be the first one in this 1 1/2 mile spot?

                                    Comment


                                    • #98
                                      Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                      Originally posted by trytrytry View Post
                                      horses bred by into Mischief have never won a race longer than 1 mile and 3/16 (he obvioulsy has a couple winners at 1 mile 1/8) . against this top set of 3 year olds will Audible really be the first one in this 1 1/2 mile spot?
                                      How big is the sample size and who were the horses that tried? If its a few 30/1 shots, then it doesn't become real relevant.

                                      Comment


                                      • #99
                                        Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                        Originally posted by Valuist View Post
                                        Have to think Audible would get a big shot in the race. Pletcher prioritizes the Belmont, and has won it 3 times since 2007.

                                        Some real mediocre horses have won the Belmont: Tapwrit, Creator, Ruler on Ice, Da Tara, Jazil, and Tonalist among others in recent years.
                                        Same ownership as Justify, I don't see them running Audible. As a fan I wish they would though.

                                        Comment


                                        • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                          Originally posted by Valuist View Post
                                          How big is the sample size and who were the horses that tried? If its a few 30/1 shots, then it doesn't become real relevant.
                                          looks like 699 babies of racing age and none have done it so far. and if they are not trying ever there is an obvious reason. he is the leading sire $$$ wise of 2 years olds and 3 yr olds last year so hes a GREAt stud. for mile races and below. I do of course think he will get a baby a graded win at a 1 1/4 classic distance or 1 3/16 Preakness distance and even a 1 1/2 some day. its going to happen but against this TOP set of 3rd old crops I personally doubt its this year with Audible.


                                          Statistical summary for the registered progeny of Into Mischief:
                                          Northern Hemisphere


                                          8 crops
                                          799 foals
                                          7 crops of racing age
                                          627 foals of racing age
                                          158 current 2 year old foals
                                          172 yearlings
                                          0 weanlings


                                          In North America / USA, Canada, England, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
                                          Japan, UAE, and all other available Northern Hemisphere data:


                                          3 champions
                                          16 graded blacktype winners
                                          37 blacktype winners
                                          32 blacktype placers


                                          Lifetime Current Current Lifetime
                                          Year 2-Year-Olds 2-Year-Olds


                                          Foals of Racing Age 627 627 158 627
                                          Starters(/foals of RA) 376(60%) 211(34%) 5(3%) 263(42%)
                                          Winners (/foals of RA) 262(42%) 79(13%) 1(1%) 103(16%)
                                          Blacktype Winners
                                          (/foals of RA) 37(6%) 9(1%) 0(0%) 17(3%)
                                          Blacktype Placers
                                          (/foals of RA) 32(5%) 14(2%) 0(0%) 17(3%)
                                          Starts 4,166 632 7 800
                                          Wins (/starts) 753(18%) 105(17%) 1(14%) 133(17%)
                                          Placings (/starts) 1,141(27%) 187(30%) 2(29%) 222(28%)


                                          Earnings $34,168,056 $5,529,874 $47,045 $7,789,316
                                          Avg Earnings
                                          /starter $90,872 $26,208 $9,409 $29,617
                                          Avg Earnings /start $8,202 $8,750 $6,721 $9,737
                                          Median Earnings $40,352
                                          Avg Earnings Index 2.02 2.28 1.16 1.93
                                          Comparable Index 1.68
                                          Avg Distance Raced 6.69 f 6.78 f 4.64 f 6.31 f
                                          Avg Winning Distance 6.69 f 6.82 f 4.50 f 6.39 f
                                          Avg Max. Win Distance 7.08 f 6.82 f 4.50 f 6.52 f
                                          Avg Min. Win Distance 6.24 f 6.66 f 4.50 f 6.32 f
                                          Chief Earner:
                                          Goldencents $3,044,000
                                          Audible $1,003,520
                                          Sombeyay $24,000
                                          Practical Joke $739,800

                                          Comment


                                          • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                            Originally posted by trytrytry View Post
                                            looks like 699 babies of racing age and none have done it so far. and if they are not trying ever there is an obvious reason. he is the leading sire $$$ wise of 2 years olds and 3 yr olds last year so hes a GREAt stud. for mile races and below. I do of course think he will get a baby a graded win at a 1 1/4 classic distance or 1 3/16 Preakness distance and even a 1 1/2 some day. its going to happen but against this TOP set of 3rd old crops I personally doubt its this year with Audible.



                                            Statistical summary for the registered progeny of Into Mischief:
                                            Northern Hemisphere


                                            8 crops
                                            799 foals
                                            7 crops of racing age
                                            627 foals of racing age
                                            158 current 2 year old foals
                                            172 yearlings
                                            0 weanlings


                                            In North America / USA, Canada, England, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
                                            Japan, UAE, and all other available Northern Hemisphere data:


                                            3 champions
                                            16 graded blacktype winners
                                            37 blacktype winners
                                            32 blacktype placers


                                            Lifetime Current Current Lifetime
                                            Year 2-Year-Olds 2-Year-Olds


                                            Foals of Racing Age 627 627 158 627
                                            Starters(/foals of RA) 376(60%) 211(34%) 5(3%) 263(42%)
                                            Winners (/foals of RA) 262(42%) 79(13%) 1(1%) 103(16%)
                                            Blacktype Winners
                                            (/foals of RA) 37(6%) 9(1%) 0(0%) 17(3%)
                                            Blacktype Placers
                                            (/foals of RA) 32(5%) 14(2%) 0(0%) 17(3%)
                                            Starts 4,166 632 7 800
                                            Wins (/starts) 753(18%) 105(17%) 1(14%) 133(17%)
                                            Placings (/starts) 1,141(27%) 187(30%) 2(29%) 222(28%)


                                            Earnings $34,168,056 $5,529,874 $47,045 $7,789,316
                                            Avg Earnings
                                            /starter $90,872 $26,208 $9,409 $29,617
                                            Avg Earnings /start $8,202 $8,750 $6,721 $9,737
                                            Median Earnings $40,352
                                            Avg Earnings Index 2.02 2.28 1.16 1.93
                                            Comparable Index 1.68
                                            Avg Distance Raced 6.69 f 6.78 f 4.64 f 6.31 f
                                            Avg Winning Distance 6.69 f 6.82 f 4.50 f 6.39 f
                                            Avg Max. Win Distance 7.08 f 6.82 f 4.50 f 6.52 f
                                            Avg Min. Win Distance 6.24 f 6.66 f 4.50 f 6.32 f
                                            Chief Earner:
                                            Goldencents $3,044,000
                                            Audible $1,003,520
                                            Sombeyay $24,000
                                            Practical Joke $739,800
                                            How many actually have tried it (running at 1 1/4 miles or longer)? We know Practical Joke ran in the 2017 Derby and Audible obviously ran in the Derby this year. And the sire is only partially responsible for the bloodline. Audible has one advantage over Justify; he's fresher having sat out the Preakness.

                                            Comment


                                            • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                              Originally posted by Valuist View Post
                                              How many actually have tried it (running at 1 1/4 miles or longer)? We know Practical Joke ran in the 2017 Derby and Audible obviously ran in the Derby this year. And the sire is only partially responsible for the bloodline. Audible has one advantage over Justify; he's fresher having sat out the Preakness.
                                              goldenscents is the best example. great S anita Derby huge Beyer, wagered in the Derby obviously , 17th place.

                                              came back however to win that Fall the Breedrs cup mile (a tremendous horse!!!) no disrespect to him or Into Mischief!

                                              the fact that so few try show in general they cant get anywhere near that distance!

                                              I dont have a full list handy!

                                              Comment


                                              • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                Originally posted by jasson621 View Post
                                                Same ownership as Justify, I don't see them running Audible. As a fan I wish they would though.
                                                I forgot about that. That likely alone could keep him from running. I guess Pletcher could point him toward the Haskell or Travers instead. Probably a good idea; the Belmont wipes out a lot of horses.

                                                Comment


                                                • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                  Dave, I trust you'll point me in the direction of the horse 3rd race off a layoff.....naturally that's the winner.
                                                  The art of learning is learning who to ignore ~LeAnn Rimes

                                                  Comment


                                                  • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                    I have 20/1 and 6.5/1 saying that he will...Belmont will be stacked; going to be tough but I believe Justify pulls it off

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                                                    • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                      Winner of Preakness received 0.5 TG

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                                                      • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                        According to Bloodhorse no Audible in Belmont

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                                                        • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                          Originally posted by Valuist View Post
                                                          Have to think Audible would get a big shot in the race. Pletcher prioritizes the Belmont, and has won it 3 times since 2007.

                                                          Some real mediocre horses have won the Belmont: Tapwrit, Creator, Ruler on Ice, Da Tara, Jazil, and Tonalist among others in recent years.
                                                          Originally posted by jasson621 View Post
                                                          Same ownership as Justify, I don't see them running Audible. As a fan I wish they would though.
                                                          Originally posted by Valuist View Post
                                                          I forgot about that. That likely alone could keep him from running. I guess Pletcher could point him toward the Haskell or Travers instead. Probably a good idea; the Belmont wipes out a lot of horses.

                                                          I thought I finally caught Valuist with a bad opinion.

                                                          But in the end he came around to see the light.

                                                          Comment


                                                          • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                            My Boy Jack out too. Ownership conflict with Justify....
                                                            The art of learning is learning who to ignore ~LeAnn Rimes

                                                            Comment


                                                            • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                              looks like its just Justify and lightly raced but rested since derby perfect belmont Hofburg to consider on top now.

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                                                              • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                10 horse field chalk has the rail 4/5 in the program

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                                                                • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                  Baffert entered a 2nd horse in Belmont

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                                                                  • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                    Are #5 restoring hope and #9 noble indy auto scratches due to their ties to justify?

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                                                                    • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                      Originally posted by pocketheadies View Post
                                                                      Are #5 restoring hope and #9 noble indy auto scratches due to their ties to justify?
                                                                      totally ignore #5 in first couple places yes. he wont run his race style to win. NOble indy will run to win, not saying he has much of a shot.

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                                                                      • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                        good, nice to see baffert dominate as usual

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                                                                        • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                          I hoped for the same effort in the Belmont as the Preakness..worked out

                                                                          TG
                                                                          Preakness 0.5
                                                                          Belmont 0.25

                                                                          Comment


                                                                          • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                            A $2 win parlay on Justify in all three Triple Crown races returned slightly less than 10/1.

                                                                            BLUELINE grabbed 16/1 at Heritage on Justify to win the Triple Crown.

                                                                            Though BLUE had to sweat an injury to Justify with his prop because I assume "all bets were action."

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                                                                            • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                              Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                                                                              A $2 win parlay on Justify in all three Triple Crown races returned slightly less than 10/1.

                                                                              BLUELINE grabbed 16/1 at Heritage on Justify to win the Triple Crown.

                                                                              Though BLUE had to sweat an injury to Justify with his prop because I assume "all bets were action."
                                                                              a great score on a great horse.

                                                                              but if you shopped a bit at A books and played justify to win each time, at the normal USA offshore sports , wonder what you could get to. I dont recall the derby win price +400? or preakness +110?

                                                                              the Belmont alone an hour before the race +130 and +135 bookmaker and dimes, on Justify was available. plug in those ~25% better prices in all three races,

                                                                              anyway great find, good sweat and nice cash!

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                                                                              • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                                It was the first time I made a triple crown bet.
                                                                                I'm only funded at a few books so options were limited for that wager and because of the perception that his Preakness was not a good effort his Belmont price was higher than expected

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                • Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                                  Originally posted by blueline View Post
                                                                                  It was the first time I made a triple crown bet.
                                                                                  I'm only funded at a few books so options were limited for that wager and because of the perception that his Preakness was not a good effort his Belmont price was higher than expected
                                                                                  that is true, the FOG bowl race spooked again the so called wise guys (who got HAMMERED all triple Crown just a blood bath) sharps and syndicates to wagers against in Belmont.
                                                                                  great hit, was fun to follow with you thanks for sharing.

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