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  • World Cup Thread

    Nine days away, not a lot of buzz around here. Rosters are official now, a few big snubs, I like the positive that Peru gets their striker Guerrero back off the suspension, should be a fun team to watch.

    Let's get some discussion going and make some money.
    If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

  • #2
    Re: World Cup Thread

    What do you make of those practice friendly games, do teams try to win those, like preseason why would any big favorite try too hard with the stars this close? Underdogs?

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    • #3
      Re: World Cup Thread

      Good luck, Goon.

      More NAME teams missed qualifying this team. Think that dampened the buzz a little. Also, I think people see this running out as top-heavy + predictable.

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      • #4
        Re: World Cup Thread

        How good is Guerrero from Peru? He is 34 yrs old, which is a bit old for top-striker.

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        • #5
          Re: World Cup Thread

          It's not how good he is at his point, but his presence creates more space for Farfan and delivery options for Hurtado. He is still a very good finisher, but not on the level he was at Bayern. I am excited to see him play, it would have been cruel for Peru to qualify for the first time since 1982 and not have him there.
          If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

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          • #6
            Re: World Cup Thread

            Of the names missing, who's the best side really? Italy, Chile, Holland, USA, Ivory Coast, Cameroon?

            Aside from Chile, I don't think any of those teams would have had a significant impact in the WC
            If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: World Cup Thread

              Originally posted by ChuckyG View Post
              How good is Guerrero from Peru? He is 34 yrs old, which is a bit old for top-striker.
              i THINK Peru is the most undervalued team in the Cup. I Bet them really big in their 1st game vs Denmark and bet them big to get out of group C. Also bet a little taste at 220-1 to win the Cup just in case they catch lighting in a bottle lol.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: World Cup Thread

                Originally posted by DrunkenGoon View Post
                It's not how good he is at his point, but his presence creates more space for Farfan and delivery options for Hurtado. He is still a very good finisher, but not on the level he was at Bayern. I am excited to see him play, it would have been cruel for Peru to qualify for the first time since 1982 and not have him there.
                Thx, Goon. Peru is a team I have my eye on. Did very well in qualifying.

                I'll throw out one handicapping theory. At an event like this, I feel like the smallish nations with ONE huge name will tend to get overbet. These teams become stylish darkhorse picks.

                Teams I have in mind that will be popular but over-priced:
                * Denmark (w/ Eriksen)
                * Egypt (w/ Salah)
                * Poland (w/ Lewandowski).

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: World Cup Thread

                  A bit unfair to call Denmark a one horse pony.

                  For Egypt, I don't know many people that could name 5 of their starters.

                  Poland is a complete team, they did well at Euro and are only getting better. They've had some injuries so it's hard to tell how effective a guy like Milik will be in the WC but they have the goaltending and some serious skill in MF. I would look for overs in Poland games, they are not a team that can shut things down defensively and they don't mind trading chances. In that group with other lethal strikers, it should be some high scoring games. Basically, if you need to buy a vowel, buy the over
                  If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: World Cup Thread

                    Originally posted by trytrytry View Post
                    What do you make of those practice friendly games, do teams try to win those, like preseason why would any big favorite try too hard with the stars this close? Underdogs?

                    Here in Costa Rica, the men's national team on Sunday pounded Northern Ireland, 3-0, at National Stadium before a big crowd looking to provide a positive send-off for the local heroes on their way to the World Cup.

                    Last week, Northern Ireland earned a scoreless tie with Panama in an international friendly.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: World Cup Thread

                      Just wait until Pelé makes a selection then fade them.

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                      • #12
                        Re: World Cup Thread

                        Or wait until DrunkenGoon publishes a play and follow him.

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                        • #13
                          Re: World Cup Thread

                          Actually, the last WC was a struggle for me, did well with early bets but the day to day action was in the minus. Costa Rica and all those extra time games in the elimination round did me in. I remember Greece late winner to advance to R16 was a big blow.
                          If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: World Cup Thread

                            Russia and Saudi Arabia will kickoff the 2018 World Cup tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. ET.

                            Any thoughts?

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                            • #15
                              Re: World Cup Thread

                              over 2.5 in game one at a nice juicy price in the +140 range
                              3-0 or 3-1

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                              • #16
                                Re: World Cup Thread

                                Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                                Here in Costa Rica, the men's national team on Sunday pounded Northern Ireland, 3-0, at National Stadium before a big crowd looking to provide a positive send-off for the local heroes on their way to the World Cup.

                                Last week, Northern Ireland earned a scoreless tie with Panama in an international friendly.
                                Panama was longest shot on board in one exchange I saw too many zeros to figure out how big a dog they re. but first time, im sure the country will be watching.

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Re: World Cup Thread

                                  Originally posted by DrunkenGoon View Post
                                  Of the names missing, who's the best side really? Italy, Chile, Holland, USA, Ivory Coast, Cameroon?

                                  Aside from Chile, I don't think any of those teams would have had a significant impact in the WC
                                  You answered the question, Chili I think.

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    Re: World Cup Thread

                                    Originally posted by trytrytry View Post
                                    Panama was longest shot on board in one exchange I saw too many zeros to figure out how big a dog they re. but first time, im sure the country will be watching.
                                    They can't put enough 0's behind that number.

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                                    • #19
                                      Re: World Cup Thread

                                      GOTTA GO w/ my boys...........CROATIA.....$100 to win $3030.......pinny

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                                      • #20
                                        Re: World Cup Thread

                                        Play #1: Russia 1H +116 over Saudi Arabia 1 unit

                                        The Saudi's won't be a pushover, they will get strong goaltending and try to frustrate the russians. I expect a bit of a tense start but there are some significant holes in the Saudi defense. They were ecstatic to escape with a 2-1 loss vs Germany but the truth is the Germans could have named their score. They got balls over the top of the Saudi defense and only the lack of chemistry on Werner's side kept the score from exploding, they must've had 10 grade A chances before the break. Russia has struggled to put together results, but I don't expect that to be an issue here, they are pumped and ready to go, they want that early goal to take the pressure off and keep the fans happy, I think they get it and eventually pull away. -1 -120ish is another option but I like the 1H bet bet.
                                        If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

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                                        • #21
                                          Re: World Cup Thread

                                          I'm opposite you here Drunk. I don't think there is much between the teams (don't have to be correct) and am more worried about foul play from Fifa wanting Russia to advance.

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                                          • #22
                                            Re: World Cup Thread

                                            Good luck... Hard for foul play at this point with the VAR, but it could be an issue on a cheap PK off a corner with all the shirt pulling that goes on, I want to see how they deal with that.
                                            If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

                                            Comment


                                            • #23
                                              Re: World Cup Thread

                                              Agree

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                                              • #24
                                                Re: World Cup Thread

                                                Not my dream start lol.

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                                                • #25
                                                  Re: World Cup Thread

                                                  Goon starts the World Cup on a winning note.

                                                  Here's hoping the easy winner is a sign of things to come.

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                                                  • #26
                                                    Re: World Cup Thread

                                                    Originally posted by trytrytry View Post
                                                    over 2.5 in game one at a nice juicy price in the +140 range
                                                    3-0 or 3-1

                                                    Try3 finds a winner at a nice price.

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                                                    • #27
                                                      Re: World Cup Thread

                                                      EOG contributor BLUELINE also liked the Russians today.

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                                                      • #28
                                                        Re: World Cup Thread

                                                        I lost

                                                        fuk saudi arabia
                                                        The real women sport expert

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                                                        • #29
                                                          Re: World Cup Thread

                                                          Did we learn anything from today's game?

                                                          Is Russia better than we thought? Is Saudi Arabia worst team here? Or did 5-0 scoreline flatter Russia?

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                                                          • #30
                                                            Re: World Cup Thread

                                                            Originally posted by ChuckyG View Post
                                                            Did we learn anything from today's game?

                                                            Is Russia better than we thought? Is Saudi Arabia worst team here? Or did 5-0 scoreline flatter Russia?
                                                            2 goals came in stoppage time but the arabs were about as bad as they come. Constant turnovers and very little offense.
                                                            The real women sport expert

                                                            Comment


                                                            • #31
                                                              Re: World Cup Thread

                                                              Originally posted by ChuckyG View Post
                                                              Did we learn anything from today's game?

                                                              Is Russia better than we thought? Is Saudi Arabia worst team here? Or did 5-0 scoreline flatter Russia?
                                                              I don't think we learned much besides Saudi was just awful today.

                                                              Comment


                                                              • #32
                                                                Re: World Cup Thread

                                                                I think Dzagoev's injury is a big blow to Russia going forward. They were ok finding holes in the Saudi defense but that won't be as easy against a well organized Uruguay defense.

                                                                Somehow, people didn't expect the Saudi's to be this bad, but markets adjusted quickly. Uruguay went from -1.5 to -2.25 vs the Saudis later in the group stage, that's as big an adjustment I've ever seen at the WC after one game.

                                                                No bet on the early game tomorrow, I lean to Uruguay but they are the type of team that scrape by and with Salah set to play I don't see an edge there. Leaning under but that's scary with finishers like Suarez, Cavani and Salah on the pitch, good luck with whatever you bet.

                                                                I have bets in the other two games, 1 unit each on
                                                                Morocco -0.5 +129 over Iran

                                                                I have learned the hard way the last few tournaments that asian teams look more competitive on paper than they actually do on the pitch when it comes to world cups. The Iranians have had a few distractions coming into the tournament and Morocco is an opportunistic side. They are air tight defensively, just look at what they did in their qualifiers. 1-0/2-0 looks very likely and the price is good enough for a bet.

                                                                Spain/Portugal DRAW +234
                                                                I think Spain is primed for a blowup again, similar to their Brazil experience. The coaching change doesn't help and they appear to be sitting on a barrel of explosives. I think we will see a cautious approach here from both sides, a draw doesn't hurt either one of, but a loss could see the pressure ratchet up to max level, having to win the last 2 games to have a chance to advance. Anything can happen here, but I have the draw here at closer to 35%, so I'll take a shot. 1-1

                                                                Futures bet:
                                                                Belgium +1050 to win WC 2 units
                                                                I know, a bunch of underachievers... until they achieve something, these guys will put Ovy's Stanley Cup celebrations to shame if they win the WC. This team is more talented than the 86 team, this team has quality and depth in goal, a physical and mobile defense, they have skill and toughness in midfield and they have quicksilver and brute force on offense to unlock any type of defense. If you want a longshot for top scorer, you can do a lot worse than Mertens.
                                                                If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

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                                                                • #33
                                                                  Re: World Cup Thread

                                                                  Thanks for sharing, Goon.

                                                                  Goon submitted his play on Belgium to win the World Cup in EOG's Best Bet thread.

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                                                                  • #34
                                                                    Re: World Cup Thread

                                                                    Saudi Arabia corrupt? Lose 5-0.

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                                                                    • #35
                                                                      Re: World Cup Thread

                                                                      So much for the Russians downplaying their expectations in the opening game.

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                                                                      • #36
                                                                        Re: World Cup Thread

                                                                        End of Ramadan today. We saw the saudis with a lack of appetite for football yesterday, I have no idea how that will impact Egypt today but it is a considerable variable in my books. Uruguay prices have been drifting all week.

                                                                        It's Mo Salah's birthday today. Expect a big game.

                                                                        Speaking of Ramadan, it appears that it ends for most today but apparently lasts for one extra day in Iran, it's based on a crescent moon sighting and an ancient calendar, could that be a factor in Morocco/Iran? apply your best "extra rest" theories here.
                                                                        If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

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                                                                        • #37
                                                                          Re: World Cup Thread

                                                                          Salah not in the starting lineup for Egypt.
                                                                          If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

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                                                                          • #38
                                                                            Re: World Cup Thread

                                                                            Uruguay/Egypt UNDER 2.5 -140 1 unit
                                                                            If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

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                                                                            • #39
                                                                              Re: World Cup Thread

                                                                              most muslims don't believe that BS, they just give it a nod out of fear

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                                                                              • #40
                                                                                Re: World Cup Thread

                                                                                Don't know what they believe but all that cramping by the Egyptians might've had something to do with lack of proper hydration over the last 4 weeks.
                                                                                If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

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