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Singling the big chalk in a Pick 4

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  • Singling the big chalk in a Pick 4

    Playing for pick 3 prices with pick 4 risk

  • #2
    Good point, Blue.

    Here's my favorite move in a multi-race Pick 3 or Pick 4 or Pick 5, especially a Pick 5 with the reduced 14% takeout: Hit the all-button but eliminate the top two or three choices in the race.

    For example, in a 10-horse field, knock out the 9/5 morning line favorite and eliminate the second and third choices as well.

    ALL minus ABC.

    Why?

    When I hit the all-button and the favorite or second choice cruises to an easy victory, I feel like a loser.

    What's more, if you think the race is truly a wide-open scramble, you must believe the short-priced horses are vulnerable.

    Comment


    • #3
      Problem with 20 cent pick 5s is everyone hammers them. I play Mohawk exclusively. I have hit more than a few decent pick 5s there. The pay offs are all over the place. It all depend son field sizes. Some night you can get all favorites beaten throw in a 30 dollar horse and it pays 1200 for 20 cents. Another night you can get 3 less than even money horses an 18 dollar horse and a 25 dollar horse and it pays 5K for 20 cents.

      I had one the other night with all second choice horses (off odds not ML odds) and it paid less than 300 for 20 cents. No rhyme or reason to it other than they cheat up there, but now that Woodbine is shut down Mohawk has run fairly true this summer. I think favs are winning at almost 45%, actually I just checked theyre just under 43%. It was higher but the past few weeks favs havent been doing so well.


      Will be really interesting to see how Santa Anita pays. I know there will be a lot of money thrown at it for awhile anyway. but any 20 cent pools are going to be hit or miss, and the 10 cent supers are even worse.

      Comment


      • #4
        here are 6/5 or less MLO..no races off the turf... grouped by volatility index

        VI 15-25 00020 00004 20% 40% 45% 0.44 0.54 0.51
        VI 26-32 00301 00123 41% 61% 75% 0.73 0.80 0.85
        VI 33-37 00691 00307 44% 68% 81% 0.76 0.85 0.90
        VI 38-50 01417 00748 53% 76% 87% 0.82 0.89 0.93


        one example of what I do when Im looking at a day's racing is I do a scan for the 6/5 or less MLOs that fall into the lowest 2 categories for my pick X bets

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by wantitall4moi View Post
          Problem with 20 cent pick 5s is everyone hammers them. I play Mohawk exclusively. I have hit more than a few decent pick 5s there. The pay offs are all over the place. It all depend son field sizes. Some night you can get all favorites beaten throw in a 30 dollar horse and it pays 1200 for 20 cents. Another night you can get 3 less than even money horses an 18 dollar horse and a 25 dollar horse and it pays 5K for 20 cents.

          I had one the other night with all second choice horses (off odds not ML odds) and it paid less than 300 for 20 cents. No rhyme or reason to it other than they cheat up there, but now that Woodbine is shut down Mohawk has run fairly true this summer. I think favs are winning at almost 45%, actually I just checked theyre just under 43%. It was higher but the past few weeks favs havent been doing so well.


          Will be really interesting to see how Santa Anita pays. I know there will be a lot of money thrown at it for awhile anyway. but any 20 cent pools are going to be hit or miss, and the 10 cent supers are even worse.

          One of my very best friends is a steward and was a major part of the consulting and discussion when discussions began to bring the rainbow 6 to SA. I was told the room was divided but it's hard to argue with the success that Gulfstream had. Santa Anita is going to sell the possibility of a "LIFE CHANGING SCORE" pretty hard. Hopefully the racing secretary does a better job writing races so we can have full fields thus big pools and huge payouts.

          Comment


          • #6
            and adding one filter to that data set brings it down to this...its a good place to start for looking to beat big MLO chalks for pickX bets

            Play All 00347 00124 36% 61% 75% 0.67 0.78 0.84

            Comment


            • #7
              Im going to try this on a pk 4 or 5

              Comment


              • #8
                I don't agree with the playing for pick 3 prices.

                Huge difference in the additional legs.

                Look at belmont late pick 4 on Sunday:

                Race 6... 3/2 Mo Diddley won.. paid $5.20
                Late pick 3 starting in 7th paid $27.25 for $1.
                Late pick 4 starting in 6th paid $174.50 for $1.

                A 3/2 choice in a 4 horse race was a $147.25 difference between pick 3 and pick 4.

                Comment


                • #9

                  Los Alamitos Early Pick 4 on Sunday

                  Race 1: 3/5 shot wins

                  R2-4 pick 3: $62
                  R1-4 pick 4: $134


                  Late pick 4
                  Race 5 3/2 shot wins
                  R6-8 pick 3: $60
                  R5-8 pick 4: $167


                  FRIDAY
                  Race 2: 6/5 wins
                  R3-R5 pick 3: $290
                  R2-R5 pick 4: $727



                  Benoit is correct, additional leg makes a major difference.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Gabe View Post
                    Los Alamitos Early Pick 4 on Sunday

                    Race 1: 3/5 shot wins

                    R2-4 pick 3: $62
                    R1-4 pick 4: $134


                    Late pick 4
                    Race 5 3/2 shot wins
                    R6-8 pick 3: $60
                    R5-8 pick 4: $167


                    FRIDAY
                    Race 2: 6/5 wins
                    R3-R5 pick 3: $290
                    R2-R5 pick 4: $727



                    Benoit is correct, additional leg makes a major difference.


                    I'd feel much better if you didn't agree with me.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by BenoitPaire2 View Post
                      I don't agree with the playing for pick 3 prices.

                      Huge difference in the additional legs.

                      Look at belmont late pick 4 on Sunday:

                      Race 6... 3/2 Mo Diddley won.. paid $5.20
                      Late pick 3 starting in 7th paid $27.25 for $1.
                      Late pick 4 starting in 6th paid $174.50 for $1.

                      A 3/2 choice in a 4 horse race was a $147.25 difference between pick 3 and pick 4.
                      I'm mainly a win bettor with doubles and some pick3s.
                      As I'm getting ready to dive back into racing Im seeing it becoming much more difficult to get as many edges in the win pool as there were in the past. Also I'm finding my double prices being decimated.

                      I planned on transitioning into pick4s.
                      I asked someone I know who fires into pick4 and 5 pools for advice on strucuturing etc and the pick 3 prices thing was some of the advice I came away with.
                      ​​​Is your example an outlier..Its one thing for me to keep an eye on

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        That's unfortunate, is there any "real" reasons for that emotion-laden opinion based attack regarding my fact-based response. So you're saying if a different username posted the same exact reply that you would "feel" much better? Possibly one of the more strange replies I've read on the forums in quite some time. I am curious to know why you feel this way though, JK says attack the post not the poster but when someone is consumed and filled with unwarranted hatred it makes them say strange things such as you just said above.

                        Looking forward to your factual response without emotion and opinion.


                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by blueline View Post

                          I'm mainly a win bettor with doubles and some pick3s.
                          As I'm getting ready to dive back into racing Im seeing it becoming much more difficult to get as many edges in the win pool as there were in the past. Also I'm finding my double prices being decimated.

                          I planned on transitioning into pick4s.
                          I asked someone I know who fires into pick4 and 5 pools for advice on strucuturing etc and the pick 3 prices thing was some of the advice I came away with.
                          ​​​Is your example an outlier..Its one thing for me to keep an eye on

                          Its not an outlier at all. So much value in pick 5s compared to the pick 4s and pick 4s compared to pick 3s.

                          if you ask me, anyone who plays the early pick 4 with nyra is losing so much value considering the prices on the pick 5 are usually 3x or 4x that of a pick 4 with a favorite in the first

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Gabe View Post
                            That's unfortunate, is there any "real" reasons for that emotion-laden opinion based attack regarding my fact-based response. So you're saying if a different username posted the same exact reply that you would "feel" much better? Possibly one of the more strange replies I've read on the forums in quite some time. I am curious to know why you feel this way though, JK says attack the post not the poster but when someone is consumed and filled with unwarranted hatred it makes them say strange things such as you just said above.

                            Looking forward to your factual response without emotion and opinion.
                            Cause you are as big of a square as there is in horse racing.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by BenoitPaire2 View Post

                              Cause you are as big of a square as there is in horse racing.

                              But the thing is I wasn't discussing my opinion on the subject, I was posting facts so that doesn't make sense. Honestly, I truly could careless what you think of me because you know zero about me. You obviously have either no knowledge or simply ignored all the handicapping contest money that has been accrued by me or the major money I've won in the last 6 months.

                              If that is how you feel, that's how you feel. Let me know if you want to go HEAD 2 HEAD in a horse racing contest where we pick horses and to avoid being fed horses we can do write-ups on our selections.

                              See son, I deal with facts, you deal with emotions and feelings. You think I suck? so put your money where your mouth is.

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHkrRUTSFr0

                                I explain why a 10-1 ML looks better than a 2-1 ML in detail via video. The longshot ended up running 2nd, while the favorite runs dead last. Yes, suggesting to throw out the favorite and look at the 10-1 ML shot is something a square does.

                                You are clueless and know nothing about me.


                                 

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                                • #17
                                  Hold up,

                                  you go around betting $20WPS on 2 different horses in the same race and you are calling someone a square? Ask any horse racing bettor and they will tell you it doesn't get more square than that. A guy betting 2 horses to WPS in the same race is going around calling people square. LMFAO.


                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    Most of the discrepancies are based on take out, and guaranteed pools. Mohawk has 50K guarantee in the pick 5 and the first pick 4. They eclipse those easily if the fields are big enough. On Saturady as the pick 5 generally has close to if not more than 100K in it.

                                    But singling a big horse goes both ways. I have a decent strat I am not going to talk a lot about but will give Mohawk tonight as a remedial example. But you have multiple tickets with singles on each one then you have some that are spread then you have a few with alls. Obviously going to have to get a little deep and sometimes even for 20 centers youre looking at 169-218 type amounts across all the tickets. And sometimes you hit them on the 4.20 cent options. Sometimes you have all the numbers right but not on the same ticket. But having them pay off would have cost maybe 800 bucks for 20 cents, which in a vast majority of the times that does happen would still be profitable, but for all the ones you cash and lose you would end up losing money overall.

                                    I figure if you cant hit a 20 cent pick 5 for less than 200 bucks (500 to cash the dollar one) then youre seeing stuff that isnt there. Or not seeing obvious ones. Or trying to hard to make a combination that you hope hits and pay a lot out of something that isnt possible.

                                    But like I said having a 1/9 shot get beat isnt a guarantee. Especially if the next obvious horse wins. It just turns a 100 dollar Pick 5 into a 3 hundred dollar one.

                                    Mohawk tonight. good example. the rail horse in race one should be a semi easy single. Obviously can make a case for a couple others in there, but that one even with the rail should go off less than 1/1, but if the 6,7,8 win, even if one of them is 8/1 the 'jackpot' factor isnt going to go up all that much. Even the 4 is 'playable' there but for one like that (the benefit of the first leg) is you get to see the 'playable' ones in the next 4 races you have to guess.

                                    Race two is interesting and there is a hidden horse in there. one with a ML that doesnt reflect how much it will get bet, but since its a double race youre also going to get a heads up there as well, and thats the 5. I personally dont like him but he has been 8/5 in the same class and 9/2 in first start off a Qua after he made a ton of breaks. The 2 is the obvious, and he would be a single in some fashion but this race is basically an ALL race due to a lot of factors. Even though you could probably 'handicap' it down to 4 or 5. In a race with a bunch of maiden trotters you cant really handicap it. SO that race has a little bit of everything. An 'obvious' one, a sleeper/hidden one and an all wouldnt be out of the question. Also the guy who handicaps likes the 7 (likes the 5 second) and doesnt pick the one I think will be the 'obvious' favorite at all.

                                    Third race very similar.Its the 7 or nothing. Even in a trot race he will be 3/5 if not 2/5. He ran for the whole quarter two weeks ago was back at least 20 lengths and beat a field better than this. he is literally 4 to 5 seconds faster than this field. And if he doesnt win then thats your jack pot ticket because (or so you should think) after him there arent any clear cut ones you can use, but you also cant go all in that race either. Well I suppose you could but youre going to need to get your single single in the first 2 races (which will probably be a 10 dollar double) so even a horse that comes from out of left field your starting with a diminished pay off. (generally).

                                    So you have a race 4 with 4 legit horses and one of those 4 should win, could be a fifth which I like but he has been scratched sick and hasnt raced in a month. So basically a 'normal' race.

                                    Race 5 is another interesting one. Last leg so I like to spread, looks to be a two horse race but thing is those two horses are 9 and the 10, not great spots on a 7/8s track. But there are two in there that I like that are 'hidden' well one not hidden as much as you think he is going to improve. The 5 and the 7.

                                    So basically a complete spread ticket would be 1,4,6,7,8/ALL/7/1,3,4,7/5.7.9.10. 144 for 20 cents. Which is actually a playable ticket But if it comes 1/2/7/ and any combination of the last two you have youre likely to lose money.

                                    I will probably single the first 3 then spread the last two on one ticket That will cost 16-48 depending on how many I throw in. SO if I play both those tickets I am into the pick 5 for 160-192 and have a few 40 cent combos. But also want to have a couple options in the first race since we are singling the one on both tickets. So now youre talking another 16-48 bucks there. So now we have a total of 176-250 invested. Which can still be profitable if we get the right combination, but a total bloodbath if the first 3 races do come 1/2/7.


                                    But thats why these things do pay because you can talk yourself in and out of so many combinations. I basically look at potential pay offs. If 'logical' horse win then I think the most its going to pay is between 200-800 for a buck. The most it can pay if its horses you cant pick with tomorrows newspaper then you can get the pool maybe, but the horse I have listed arent going to be any of those. Even if I get a couple of my 'hidden' ones Best I can see is maybe 3K for a buck, so 600 for 20 cents. With basically 2 singles.

                                    SO would I be better off betting 300 win (price of all my pick 5 tickets) on the 1 in the first race, and then (if he wins) parlaying that on the 7 in the third? Depends on the price of the 1 in the first I guess. At even money I would say you get more with the parlay. Because then you bet 600 on the 7 in the third, even at 2/5 thats 540 profit overall. So a slight underlay to my 600 dollar guessitimate of the top pay off I would expect (which ironically would mean the 1 couldnt win the first race). But when you parlay you only need 2 winners. Or you could play the DD and then parlay that onto the 7 in the third or parlay all win money. Or bet a straight pick 3. SO many choices in the first 3 races. But on A Thursday at Mohawk with shitty trotters do you see obvious horses come in? Thus the allure of trying to manufacture something out of nothing with the pick 5.

                                    SO 'smart' bet would be to play the single single single pick 5 ticket, AND the parlay, and hope to scoop the pot. Or maybe spread race two a little bit and throw 24-48 at the pick 5. Will depend on the double pay offs as well as what he one is paying off. Thats the beauty of having a potential single in race one and an obvious single in another leg, you get to theory craft potential pay offs (good and bad) based on knowing what 3 races are more or less going to pay.

                                    But IMO the 'best' option is the $144 pick 5 and hope the 1 loses the first race and the 7 wins the third then you have 16 combinations in the last 2. Its basically a bet and forget. You bet rhe first race and dont have to make any decisions in any of the others.

                                    Which brings us to the pick 4, thats the ball buster, it starts in race 4 where we like 4 (or 5) horses and also includes the pay off of the pick 5 and our 4 horses there. SO that leaves the 6th and the 7th. 6th is nice with 4 or even 5 horses with potential. Race 7 is a great race because everyone will bet the one, so if she loses it could be decent especially with the potential in the first 2. But if you go 4x4x4 then you multiply the number of horses in your 4th leg by 12.80 for a 20 center. So if you go 5 deep in the pay off leg thats 64 bucks. Which by looking at the races is actually a not so bad price.

                                    Problem is even with 4 horses in every race those races are such that you can still get beat. But IMO youre going to have a 65-70% chance of cashing and I would say a 100% chance to go 3/4 too bad they dont pay 3/4 and that one you miss is generally by one that they either bet and you missed or one you liked but saved money to eliminate or used another one instead of him. I would rather have something I couldnt have found at all win that way I dont second guess myself.

                                    But the pick 4 tonight should pay something, but BECAUSE there are seemingly no stick outs everyone is going to spread so that also diminishes the pay offs overall even if you happen to get a 20 dollar horse in their somewhere others are more likely to have him as well.

                                    Yeah I know a typical long winded post, but I am sure people who bet horses a lot know the mind set and thought process.

                                    But an old guy told me once when I was young. He said I knew everything ABOUT betting I just didnt know HOW to bet horses. He was probably right so thats why I do these things the way I do them. Because anyone can pick a few winners but getting them in the right combination is the trick, and even more so at a place like Mohawk where they shove some across that dont figure.

                                    Comment


                                    • #19

                                      Betting a horse to win is very square, especially if they are less than 8/5.. Betting WPS is square as a window.



                                      For example, there was a horse a friend gave me today at KYDOWNS

                                      Instead of betting $9 to win, I decided to bet the pick 3 instead. 3x3x1, ($9)
                                      Horse won and paid $17.20 to win. $9 to win would have gotten me $77.40..

                                      Instead, I hit the pick 3 with two other favorites and it paid $122..If a better price won it would have paid even more.


                                      Turned a 7-1 shot into a 13-1 shot..



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                                      • #20
                                        Originally posted by Gabe View Post


                                        But the thing is I wasn't discussing my opinion on the subject, I was posting facts so that doesn't make sense. Honestly, I truly could careless what you think of me because you know zero about me. You obviously have either no knowledge or simply ignored all the handicapping contest money that has been accrued by me or the major money I've won in the last 6 months.

                                        If that is how you feel, that's how you feel. Let me know if you want to go HEAD 2 HEAD in a horse racing contest where we pick horses and to avoid being fed horses we can do write-ups on our selections.

                                        See son, I deal with facts, you deal with emotions and feelings. You think I suck? so put your money where your mouth is.

                                        Big money? Lmao. I’ve seen your picks.. 80% of them are favorites.

                                        i will do h2h anytime.

                                        i post pick 5s occasionally on twitter... I posted a $8k pick 4 at Belmont in July, and $6k pick 5 from turf paradise in April. Both of which I am positive are bigger hits than you’ve had at any point in your life. You blocked me because you couldn’t take any criticism of your horrible selections

                                        how much do you wanna do the h2h for? Post up with JK?

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                                        • #21
                                          80% favorites, (WRONG)...FAKE NEWS

                                          What's your name on twitter?

                                          Contest type, horse for horse?


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                                          • #22
                                            Are you b.smith who consistently bets (2) horses to win and even mentioned betting (2) price horses to win and the exacta came in and you didn't box? Plus there are no pictures of you, or of you ever even leaving the house which means you could be anybody and have no transparency?


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                                            • #23
                                              Originally posted by Gabe View Post
                                              Betting a horse to win is very square, especially if they are less than 8/5.. Betting WPS is square as a window.



                                              For example, there was a horse a friend gave me today at KYDOWNS

                                              Instead of betting $9 to win, I decided to bet the pick 3 instead. 3x3x1, ($9)
                                              Horse won and paid $17.20 to win. $9 to win would have gotten me $77.40..

                                              Instead, I hit the pick 3 with two other favorites and it paid $122..If a better price won it would have paid even more.


                                              Turned a 7-1 shot into a 13-1 shot..


                                              LMAO you cant make blanket statements like that. If I see a horse with a 3-1 ML and there is a 5/2 in there with him and they have pick 3 pay offs of 44.20 and 56.60 respectively and that horse is paying 7/5 and the ML fav is 2-1 I am betting the 7/5 to win, especially if the other pik 3 pay offs are 4 and 5 times as much.

                                              Or even if you have a 2-1 ML and his horizontal pay offs are 1/8 or less than the rest of the field and he is even 4/5 I am betting him. Most of the time their off odds are reflective of 'squares' trying to beat them, when they cant. There is something to be said that BECAUSE they had a small ML too many 'squares' bet them in the pick 3,4,5s and thats why theyre not getting bet. But that isnt that logical especially for a horse that has shown the ability to win. In Maidens and shit like that possibly, but not in most cases.

                                              4/5 on a horse that should be 2/5 is a damn good pay off.

                                              And you can cherry pick all the examples you want, If one you didnt use won you wouldnt have had anything. Except I assume the one you were given was in the third leg, and if you werent alive you could have bet him to win then. But then you turn a 77.40 ticket into a 68.40 ticket or had you just held and bet the 18 you would have gotten back 154. I assume you would have bet it even if you werent live. Because thats what most people would do. Just because other horse won and it happened to gambler fallacy your way to better odds that isnt really what happened.

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                                              • #24
                                                That was just the most recent example. There are many others where you can get 10-1 on a 5/2 if you do things correctly.

                                                Yes I would still have bet if the pick 3 wasn't alive, why not? Sometimes I will even bet more and go for a mini score.

                                                There are many examples with doubles, if the race before is a two horse race and you can bet two doubles instead of betting to win. In the long term it's the more profitable way to bet and if anyone tells you otherwise they are mistaken. With horse racing it's about being ahead for the "YEAR" not the day.

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                                                • #25
                                                  Originally posted by Gabe View Post
                                                  Are you b.smith who consistently bets (2) horses to win and even mentioned betting (2) price horses to win and the exacta came in and you didn't box? Plus there are no pictures of you, or of you ever even leaving the house which means you could be anybody and have no transparency?

                                                  No idea who you are even talking about, but nice try.

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                                                  • #26
                                                    you said I blocked you on twitter? I only block complete wackos on there and that was the only semi-sane person I ever blocked.

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                                                    • #27
                                                      Back to my Mohawk example, looks like the 7 not the 2 is the big one in race two, but theyre betting the 7,2,5 un that order at least in the doubles.

                                                      If the one gets beat in the first race then its good, which makes that 144. example I posted a pretty decent bet.

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                                                      • #28
                                                        LOL B The Gambler?

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                                                        • #29
                                                          well we get to test that theory got the 7 at 5-1 and second choice to beat the 3/5 favorite. But if my ALL comes in this next race with a nice one THEN even with the 7 winning my pay offs should be decent....

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                                                          • #30
                                                            Dang, some interesting double prices at MOHAWK. First horse paid $12 and the double to the 5/2 ML favorite is paying $128 for $2?


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                                                            • #31
                                                              Anything but the 7 and the pick 5 can pay, even the one I like and the one I thought would be a single are paying 67 and 128 respectively.

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                                                              • #32
                                                                I would like to see the 7 break here....

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                                                                • #33
                                                                  Eh, the #7 wins.,

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                                                                  • #34
                                                                    meh, there is a case study, the 'obvious' single loses the first race, the pre race 'obvious' single breaks in the second and the post time 3/5 walks away with it in a race where ALL was a 'smart' bet. Even though two of the 3 logical/handicapable horses finished 1-3.

                                                                    If the 7 loses the next race it wont matter, but obviously having an ALL you dont want a 3/5 and especially one with a DD thats a third of the next price. My guess is Pick 3 will be around 18 bucks for a dollar with the 7. 24 at the most. Makes it hard to get a pick 5 to justify the 160+ I threw into it....

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                                                                    • #35
                                                                      LOL 16.50 for a buck pick 3. But even so there are a couple others that are paying way too short IMO even with the second choice winning the first race. They are bet in ML order but even at 45 bucks the 3 is short. Thats why I say not all 'singles' are created equal.

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                                                                      • #36
                                                                        so 168 into the pick 5 I have a couple 40 cent numbers but I dont have the 6 in this race and he is coming back to a $23 pick 3. he was the sick one I alluded to in long post. SO i Know which one is going ot beat me. But even so it looks like a cash and lose. If the one had won the first race how sick would these things have been? Pick 5 would have probably paid less than 200 for a buck, its going to struggle to get over 300 with anything i have. SO what looked like a possible decent one has turned into what I said at first....

                                                                        Mohawk tonight. good example. the rail horse in race one should be a semi easy single. Obviously can make a case for a couple others in there, but that one even with the rail should go off less than 1/1, but if the 6,7,8 win, even if one of them is 8/1 the 'jackpot' factor isnt going to go up all that much.

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                                                                        • #37
                                                                          just got nailed at los al. I'm out, GL everyone.

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                                                                          • #38
                                                                            Well live to the 5,7,9,10 40 cents to the 5 20 on the other 3. I lose money I imagine.

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                                                                            • #39
                                                                              well not as bad as I thought they would be. But the 1 is the one I dont have and he is 4th choice and 8/1 ML. Looks like a Mohawk Special. I lose money if the 7,10 or the 9 win and not a bad score ifg the 5 hits and I like the 5. But hard to like one that isnt getting bet much...

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                                                                              • #40
                                                                                I feel Blue is mostly correct but it only matters that way in most cases, if the big favorite he is describing is in the first leg.



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