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Singling the big chalk in a Pick 4

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  • #41
    Originally posted by BenoitPaire2 View Post

    Cause you are as big of a square as there is in horse racing.
    He's also a disease trying to infect anything around him with his nomsense

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    • #42
      My clients are happy with my suggestion of fading the worst handicapper on EOG. Even after Justify won the TC, down 18 units since.

      A born loser is a born loser, worst than Brock Landers anyday of the week.

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      • #43
        Did the wager win ?

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        • #44
          Originally posted by trytrytry View Post
          I feel Blue is mostly correct but it only matters that way in most cases, if the big favorite he is describing is in the first leg.



          How do you ignore this then?



          I don't agree with the playing for pick 3 prices.

          Huge difference in the additional legs.

          Look at belmont late pick 4 on Sunday:

          Race 6... 3/2 Mo Diddley won.. paid $5.20
          Late pick 3 starting in 7th paid $27.25 for $1.
          Late pick 4 starting in 6th paid $174.50 for $1.

          A 3/2 choice in a 4 horse race was a $147.25 difference between pick 3 and pick 4.

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          • #45
            Classic example of why the pick 4 and pick 5 are better bets.

            Belmont today:

            Race 1, first leg of pick 5... the 7/5 chalk wins.
            Race 2, first leg of pick 4... the 4/5 chalk wins.

            $1 pick 5 pays $570
            $1 pick 4 pays $272
            $1 pick 3 ending in race 5... pays $88.50

            A $1 DD that paid $5 is the difference between paying $570 in p5 and $88.50 in p3.

            The pick 5 pays $570, and thats with pick 3s of: $21, $45 and $88.

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            • #46
              Originally posted by trytrytry View Post
              I feel Blue is mostly correct but it only matters that way in most cases, if the big favorite he is describing is in the first leg.



              An interesting phenomenon with the public supporting the favorite in the opening leg of a multi-race bet.

              It seems to happen at all tracks, big and small.

              I've found the tougher the wager, the more the public leans on the favorite.

              Beat an odds-on favorite in a Pick-6 sequence and overlays abound.

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              • #47
                I assume the same holds true in single-race exotics like the trifecta, superfecta, Super High 5, etc.

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                • #48
                  you want some watch Mohawk tonight. One race has ML 6/5, 7/5 and 8/5 in the same race. Lazurus will be 1/9 3/5 ML and if it were a 'real' track he woul d have about 250K on him to show. But on stakes nights like this thats what you get. But there are a couple races with lay overs but they also have a clear second choice. If you get every second choice to win you might make some money but not likely.

                  Although race one has an 8/5 ML but I think he gets beat. Problem is I expect the one that beats him will actually be the favorite. If that was the third race it might have been hidden but in race one everyone is going to have a lot of 'info' to go on. But I think the 3 will be bet and more than likely will be the favorite in that race.

                  Race 2 is obvious and the 5 is a single there. Of course people will try to beat him with the 8 but its not likely.

                  Race 3 another short ML with a 9/5 but that race is interesting and IMO any of the top 3 can win it and if they cook each other then a shocker wouldnt really shock. But if they dont drive the 3 like a retard it lays over.

                  Race 4 most interesting race of the night. I hate the rail at Mohawk but the best horse has the 9 hole which is probably worse than the rail. But the two best horses have those spots. So what do you do? Punt and play the 5 the one they stiffed last week who is up in class and a 10-1 ML....

                  Race 5 the pay off race. 3 is an absolute lay over and will be 3/5 and only because enough people will bet the 7 to keep the 3 from being 1/9.

                  Race 7 is another 2/5 shot race. And again only reason not 1/9 because people will bet the other 'logical' one in there. But if they didnt have the 10 hole (in a race with a trailer) they might have a semi legit shot.

                  Race 8 has 3 that can win but one of them will be even money I suspect.

                  Race 9 1/9 with bridge jumpers in the show pool or should.

                  Race 10 is the one with a 6/5,7/5 and 8/5 ML. 7/5 won the Hambo but the 6/5 beat that one easy last time out. Neither have raced in 3 weeks probably why the 1 is 8/5.

                  Race 11 has a potential to be an odds on but I dont like the 2-1 ML and I am not sure many others will either.

                  But basically 9 of 13 races will have horses well below even money in them tonight at Mohawk. Could be as many as 10. 5 of them will be 3/5 or less.

                  Could night to watch not a good night to bet. Although in a couple of the not so obvious races there are some I dont mind, and like I said I like a 10-1 ML but I doubt he goes off 10-1.


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                  • #49
                    Originally posted by Gabe View Post
                    My clients are happy with my suggestion of fading the worst handicapper on EOG. Even after Justify won the TC, down 18 units since.

                    A born loser is a born loser, worst than Brock Landers anyday of the week.
                    You have no friends and you have no clients.
                    You have a sick need for validation.from strangers online.
                    Even if I were the worst gambler on the planet it doesn't erase the fact you are mentally unstable.
                    I'm waiting for the day you snap...it will come

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                    • #50
                      Damn, posted a pick 5 and was 4/4 and it ran 2nd. Thought I had the $661

                      You know what me and my boys call that, getting bluelined.

                      blueline til this day has showcased the canny ability to be the worst handicapper in the history of the forums. He has no idea that everyone
                      laughs behind his back. Guy was 13 units down, luckboxed a 16-1 justify TC bet, then just 3 months later is down 13 units again. I warned
                      everyone that I could that blueline is the epitome of a square, gets bad lines, has zero talent, no feel and follows the wrong statlines. Warned
                      everyone to fade him, you can read this on twitter. A lot of people go into that EOG best bet thread to see what blueline is on.

                      Brock landers was never this bad. Blueline's historic failure NCAAF thread last year was a joke, never had a winning week and
                      picked nothing but square selections. Read his horse comments, anyone with a clue knows he has zero knowledge.

                      I am thankful everyday that I'm not him.

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                      • #51
                        Originally posted by wantitall4moi View Post
                        Race 4 most interesting race of the night. I hate the rail at Mohawk but the best horse has the 9 hole which is probably worse than the rail. But the two best horses have those spots. So what do you do? Punt and play the 5 the one they stiffed last week who is up in class and a 10-1 ML....


                        Nice 13-1 shot there. Even with him the pick 5 pays dog shit. I didnt play it tonight just sat and waited for him to go.

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                        • #52
                          Originally posted by wantitall4moi View Post

                          Nice 13-1 shot there. Even with him the pick 5 pays dog shit. I didnt play it tonight just sat and waited for him to go.
                          Actually he went off more than 13-1 paid 36.20. Like I said pick 5s are garbage even with him. The horse that will be 2/5 is 76 bucks for 20 cents. And the only other horse you could play is 102. SO that is a great example of using your pick 5 money (I probably would have put 42 or so into it tonight trying to beat a couple) But 20 WP got me back 481 on a single horse. So six times what I would have got if the 3 wins here and almost 5 times what the 7 was going to give me. If one of them doesnt win I get jack shit.

                          So once again a nice case study in all these theories people like to throw around. But it also what happens in these races when you have 4/5 and 1/5 horses winning.

                          The pick 4 COULD pay a little bit and I didnt bet that but I would have probably played 5,9/3,7/2,3,4,6,10/2,8. Thats only 8 bucks for 20 cents. I think even if the fav wins here and the 2 wins the last race I would not have lost money.

                          But still happy with ferreting that one out after watching him last week.

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                          • #53
                            Originally posted by Gabe View Post
                            I am thankful everyday that I'm not him.
                            Posted that sometime ago about you and I'm glad to see it stuck.

                            One thing I can never compete with is you got a 15yo drunk and had sex with her..you're a scumbag rapist

                            BP called you a square and that sent you off the rails...just waiting for Heim to say something to send you over the edge...its the same pattern with you day after day

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                            • #54
                              ugh 10-1 shot wins there the pick 4 pays now....

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                              • #55
                                278 with a 2/5 and 650 with the only other one I could have played. for 8 bucks it would have been worth the shot I guess.

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                                • #56
                                  Well glad I didnt bet it now LOL. The 8 got the trip I thought the 10 would get. 10 got a great trip which you dont expect there especially with a trailer. 8 hung every step horse breaks in his face still only beat length and a half...

                                  That pick 4 was 550 for 20 cents.

                                  Well thats it, this next race could be interesting as far as betting goes but I suspect one of them will get hammered. More than Likely the 4, but there isnt much you can do in there unless youre looking for some long one to split a couple of the logical ones.

                                  Been looking for the 1 to win in race 11 for a couple weeks tonight might be the night. But I dont like the rail at Mohawk. But up in class with no wins showing is what I like to see.

                                  And London Seelster in the 13th is way over due but a 10 hole and he cant leave. But with Roy he might. And not a ton of speed. He will be big odds I suspect I will prebet him and look at the results tomorrow...

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                                  • #57
                                    http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1118005

                                    6-0 +6.00 units


                                    Blueline, we're on different levels dude. Can't deny that.





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                                    • #58
                                      A 6 game sample that's priceless...so many losing chalks just disregarded...do me a favor write my name on a Fremont well drink ticket like you did with Heim...that will improve my power rating

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                                      • #59
                                        dude there are 15+ people who fade your every play. You have been losing nonstop for 2+ years, I feel sorry for your inept ass.

                                        You are mentioned all the time in my FACEBOOK group, twitter and among other platforms. We all laugh and make fun of you!!

                                        Think it's time you just shut up and keep them fades coming. Can't wait to see what Mr. Inept has for tomorrows NFL. Let me guess a big ml fave that is life or death to possibly win. Flip those coins son, get our fade ready.


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                                        • #60
                                          your clients are about as real as your Twitter followers...if you can , write my name on a plaza drink ticket....better yet get one of those street performers downtown to hold it and take a picture of it...my power rating would soar

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                                          • #61
                                            Mohawk special in this race (11th) the 5. Definitely live not sure if he can win. I dont like horses first time around the track but serious money on this one all over the place.

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                                            • #62
                                              5 pulled too latye just missed...

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                                              • #63
                                                going bombs away in this one went degenerate and hit a couple there I wasnt going to bet.

                                                So trying a super. 8,10/4,5,8,10/4,5,8,10/All. 10 WP 8/all exacta all/8 exacta 10/all exacta all/10 exacta

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