mofome
Banned
OU + 2.5 @ Mizzou
Mizzou and OU are both coming off relatively easy wins this past weekend. Prior to the season most thought this would be the return of OU to the top of the big 12 while Missouri would be a bit of a question mark. But heading into this game, its mizzou that controls its destiny in the conference and is still playing for a BCS bid.
After a slow start last week, the tigers exploded for 31 points in the middle quarters of their game with KNST to put them away. Chase continued to put up huge numbers with 4TDs, no ints, and 262 yards. Missouri got the job done on the ground as well putting up 171 yards with a nice 4.6ypc average. Even in the lopsided victory, Missouri still came away with some questions in their run defense. KNST racked up 262 yards on the ground and managed 5.6 yards a pop. Needless to say, the tigers are happy they wont be seeing the likes of A. Peterson this weekend.
OU had one of its best defensive efforts last week as this unit continues to rise up nationally in terms of total defense. Another effort like last week and they will find themselves in the top 10, but that?s not going to be easy. Col came into the sooner state and got manhandled by the OU defense. OU held Col to 113 total yards and only 2.6ypp. Colorado?s offense is simply too one dimensional and they struggled to move the ball, as we thought they would. But like Missouri, OU didn?t come out of their game with Colorado without some major concerns. Stoops opted to stick with his running game despite the loss of Peterson and they struggled a bit. OU ran the ball 49 times and picked up 3.4ypc. Without Peterson we wondered if Thompson could pick things up and he could not. Thompson threw the ball 27 times and only averaged 4.0ypa. that?s not gonna get it done this week.
Missouri love to throw the ball and that wont change this week. They don?t drop back and throw it deep too often, they like to run a controlled passing offense and spread the defense out. Mizzou currently ranks 18<SUP>th</SUP> in the nation in passing, putting up 254.6 yards per contest. Chase Daniels has only lost once since his jr year in HS and that?s due, in large part, to his ability to take care of the ball. This season chase has an outstanding 19:5, TD:INT ratio. This week the Tigers pass offense will face its biggest test when OU brings their 11<SUP>th</SUP> ranked pass defense to town. OU has only given up 7 passing Tds and has matched each td allowed one for one with Ints. A problem for the OU defense has been their inability to get to the QB, they are 99<SUP>th</SUP> in the nation in sacks with a total of 9 on the year. Missouri does a good job of protecting their qb having only given up 10 sacks in 8 games this season. These stats seem to indicate that Daniels will have the time to pick out his wrs and ou will have to hope to get hands up and deflect a few passes and confuse Chase with coverages. When the tigers look for the big play they go to William Franklin who is putting up over 18ypc and has over 650 yards receiving this season. Its tough to double Wrs in the spread offense and when OU doubles WF, Daniels has no trouble throwing underneath. Franklin is great after the catch and he will be a focal point this week as OU prepares to go to Missouri.
When mizzou chooses to run the ball they do it with decent success. They rank 33<SUP>rd</SUP> in rushing offence and put up a bit over 4.3ypc. Missouri mixes up their runs with a few option looks and runs from the spread to keep teams off balance. Chase doesn?t have great speed, but he picks his spots well and has amassed over 230 rushing yards on the season. On the ground the tigers are led by tony temple whos on his way to a thousand yard season and is averaging over 5.3 yards per carry. OU only ranks 41<SUP>st</SUP> vs. the run but that?s been getting better each week after they were eaten up at Oregon.
Overall I think Missouri will move the ball b/w the 20s but this game will be decided based on their ability to get 7 instead of 3.
The Ou offense is still a question mark without Peterson. Last week they looked below average at home vs. a 1-6 Col team. Thompson wasn?t able to just drop back and throw and that allowed col to keep a decent amount of men in the box and hold the sooners under 3.5ypc. The OU passing attack should benefit from better weather this week. Even still, OU will need to be able to make big plays and keep Missouri from keying on the run if they want to leave with a win. Missouri has a decent pass defense; they only give up 5.41ypa and have 10 take aways. That being said, the tigers haven?t faced many great passing attacks so far this season. OU currently ranks 53<SUP>rd</SUP> in the nation in passing offense. One thing that OU will need to focus on is the attacking Tigers defense who are currently sacking the QB 3.5 times per game. Thompson will face pressure and will have to show that he can keep away from making the big mistakes that he did vs Texas.
As far as running the ball, OU ranks 23<SUP>rd</SUP> with just over 170 yards per game, but most of that was obviously with Peterson in the backfield. The sooners will be facing a very capable Missouri rush defense that is only giving up 3.38ypc.
The sooners will need to be able to run the ball on first down if they are going to have success this weekend on the road. Thompson isn?t likely to drop back on pick apart the tigers and this will be a concern not only on 2<SUP>nd</SUP>/3<SUP>rd</SUP> and longs but also if Missouri has a lead late in the game. This will be one of the biggest games mizzou has had in many years. The tigers are still looking to win the big 12 and sneak into the BCS. Missouri has good balance on both sides of the ball and will be playing in front of their home crowd which should be fired up at noon on Saturday. OU attacked the line of scrimmage a lot vs. Colorado but that may not work vs. the tigers controlled passing attack and their talented QB. While OU has shown well on defense over the last month, they still have a lot of questions on offense and that could be the difference in the game. In a big game like this is often times comes down to the QB that makes plays and limits mistakes; Chase should be the more likely to do each. Lead by an all-conference caliber QB, I expect Missouri to take this game at home and set up a huge game at Nebraska on the first weekend in November.
My play:
Missouri -2.5
...Seriously- Thanks for the nice write up..Know it took some time..You have been thinking quite clearly lately with the writeups and noticed you advised to take Det last night too..Keep up the great work young stud:+bouncing :+signs8-3
