Questionable line moves (or lack of moves)

[August West]

THis has been my favorite angle lately. When one team is taking the vast majority of wagers (at least 70%), but the line moves in the other direction.

Cincinatti vs Rutgers was a textbook example last week. Here are a few that make you :+clueless .


<TABLE class=bet cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=bet_cell_b style="BORDER-RIGHT: #999999 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #999999 1px solid">Georgia Tech 72.08%
Georgia 27.92%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_b style="BORDER-RIGHT: #999999 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #999999 1px solid">6032 Bets</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Line opened at Georgia -1 and its now painted Georgia -3 across the board.
I'm taking Georgia.

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<TABLE class=bet cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=bet_cell_b style="BORDER-RIGHT: #999999 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #999999 1px solid">Ala Birmingham vs C Florida </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b style="BORDER-RIGHT: #999999 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #999999 1px solid">Ala Birmingham 82.91%
C Florida 17.09%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_b style="BORDER-RIGHT: #999999 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #999999 1px solid">632 Bets
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Line opened at Pickem, but is now painted C Fla -3 across the board.
i'm taking Central Florida.

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<TABLE class=bet cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=bet_cell_a style="BORDER-RIGHT: #999999 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #999999 1px solid">SMU vs Rice </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a style="BORDER-RIGHT: #999999 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #999999 1px solid">SMU 9.01%
Rice 90.99%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_a style="BORDER-RIGHT: #999999 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #999999 1px solid">1908 Bets
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Line opened at Rice -4.5, but it is now a Pickem.
I'm taking SMU.

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<TABLE class=bet cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=bet_cell_a style="BORDER-RIGHT: #999999 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #999999 1px solid">San Jose St vs Idaho </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a style="BORDER-RIGHT: #999999 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #999999 1px solid">San Jose St 94.99%
Idaho 5.01%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_a style="BORDER-RIGHT: #999999 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #999999 1px solid">1756 Bets</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Line opened at SJS -7.5 but its now SJS -7 across the board. With 95% of the wagers on SJS, shouldn't it have moved to like -9 or higher to try to even out the action?
I'm taking Idaho.


Anyone have any thoughts to this type of line handicapping?

 

[dirty]

Re: Questionable line moves (or lack of moves)

That is a pretty good angle I think works alot...I have used it before....I don't know the Math to it.... but Cannon has a system for it I am sure...or something similar

 

[pvcpipe]

Re: Questionable line moves (or lack of moves)

some people call it "lopsided money," although it would be more accurate to call it "lopsided public."

usc fits this system as well, as 58% public backing the underdog ND, yet line has moved from 7 to 9.

 

[SaintUrban]

Re: Questionable line moves (or lack of moves)

What do you do with this one?

UF (57.17%), FSU (42.83%), but line has moved from -7.0 on the road favorite to -9.5, back down to -8.5.

My screen name gives away my rooting interest in this one, but nobody gets rich laying points on the road with the Gators.