Couple thoughts on tonight's game CHI/STL

[mgmhatesme]

Already known is that the Bears will be without Tommie Harris. Expect the Bears to announce pro-bowl CB Vasher inactive and starting safety Todd Johnson (replacing pro-bowl S Mike Brown on IR) to be replaced by Mike Green. That makes 3 pro-bowl defenders out for the Bears tonight. Mike Green was replaced at S by Daniel Manning this year because of his limited range in coverage which could help open up the deep passes tonight. Vasher will be replaced by Ricky Manning Jr, who is very effective, but the new nickel back will now be rookie Devin Hester who was drafted for his punt-return ability and not his abilities as a corner. DT Tommie Harris loss will be felt more by his one-dimensional replacements. Boone and Ian Scott are very good at defending the run but poor at rushing the passer, Tank Johnson is the opposite but is slightly hobbled by a bum knee. The Bears would also like to move some of their DEs inside to DT to get some interior pass rush.

TEMPO:
I expect the Rams to go to multiple WR fronts and also perhaps a no-huddle offense to keep the DL substitutions from the Bears to a minimum. The Bears will want to establish the run against one of the worst run defenses in the league. When Grossman passes he likes to throw downfield and is very agressive. Should be a high-scoring game.

MATCHUPS:
- Bears will stay in their base cover 2 and not move around their corners, allowing the Rams to get the matchups they want with their WRs against a banged up secondary.
- Rams have not been protecting the passer well since Orlando Pace was put on IR and they will need to move around the pocket, chip with the backs, protect with the TE, etc to stop the rush.

FAMILIARITY:
Lovie Smith was the Rams DC before becoming HC of the Bears. Linehan was OC for the Vikings for awhile before moving to the Dolphins and on to the Rams as HC.

MOTIVATION:
The Rams are playing for a playoff-spot at home; the Bears have clinched a playoff spot and are playing for home-field advantage in the playoffs. Rams QB Bulger has recently called out teammates for not caring whether they win or lose just about getting their paycheck. Linehan has asked the team to look at the next 4 games as a new season and they need to sweep to make the playoffs. Bears QB Grossman is fighting for his job and may be replaced at halftime if he performes poorly in the 1st half. Advantage: Rams

RECOMMENDED WAGERS:
1) Over 41 (buy from 41.5)
2) STL +7 (buy from 6.5)
3) STL ML +245

--------------------------
from Pat Kirwan at nfl.com:
IF YOU LIKE THE BEARS KEEP THESE POINTS IN MIND

1. The Bears are No. 1 in the NFL in punt return average.
2. The Bears are undefeated in the NFC (8-0).
3. Chicago is the top team in the NFL in field goal percentage (21 of 22 from over 30 yards).
4. Chicago has 39 takeaways this season, tops in the league averaging three per game.
5. The Bears have the No. 2 defense in the NFL and No. 1 in average gain per pass.
6. Grossman has thrown more TD passes than any Bears QB in 11 years.
7. Chicago has allowed the fewest points per game with 12.5.
8. St. Louis is only averaging 16 points per game in its last five games.
9. The Rams are last in yards given up per play and the Bears are No. 1.
10. The Bears only give up 12.6 points per game on the road.
IF YOU LIKE THE RAMS KEEP THESE POINTS IN MIND

1. St. Louis has won its last five home games played on Monday night.
2. The Rams have won four straight games against the Bears.
3. Grossman has thrown 14 picks in the last seven games.
4. The Bears allowed 192 yards rushing last week against Minnesota.
5. In three of the last five games, the Bears defense has given up plus-150 yards rushing per game.
6. St. Louis has averaged 27 points per game in its last five games Monday Night Football.
7. The Bears only average 3.57 yards per rush.
8. The Rams are the best offense in the NFL in giving up interceptions.
9. Chicago has lost seven straight on MNF and 1-10 all time.

 

[mgmhatesme]

Re: Couple thoughts on tonight's game CHI/STL

couple more points to add:
- I think the Rams would like to score early in this game in order to get the bears out of the run-heavy offense and force Grossman into obvious passing situations. Expect them to come out with multiple WR formations early and test em deep.
- Bears have a very similiar matchup as they had against the Cards last MNF game they played. Going up against a weak OL with a dynamic passing game. The Bears are not as healthy as they were in the Cardinals game.
- Rex has had 2 season-ending injuries on turf, at Minnesota and at STL.
- off-surface for Bears.

good luck all-

 

[3pointdog]

Re: Couple thoughts on tonight's game CHI/STL

i like it all MGM... lets finish off the week and bang em' hard...

 

[mgmhatesme]

Re: Couple thoughts on tonight's game CHI/STL

thanks 3ptdog, good luck to you tonight

some more thoughts:
last week's performances probably lead more to a let-down for the Bears. Bears had a "sloppy win" which could be a play-against for tonight. Rams had an "embarassing loss" at home as a 6.5 fav which one would look to wager with for tonight. Bears may think that the sub-standard effort displayed last week is ok and that they can still win.
- Both teams are familiar with the cover-2 defense that they will be going up against tonight as each team uses it themselves. I expect this to help the over a bit.
- Grossman may be looking at the end of his Bears career if he does not do well tonight. He has had injury-plagued seasons and if he fails to win tonight's game, expect Griese to replace him... perhaps even at halftime of tonight's game. If that happens, we may be looking at his last game as a starting QB for the Bears as crazy as that sounds. Will be interesting to see how he responds to this pressure, along with his poor MNF game against Arizona, and last week's performance against Vikings where he had a 1.3 rating or whatever.
- This is Rams 1st and only MNF game this season. Rams have a chance to sweep the 4 game schedule and realistic chance at playoffs if they win tonight, with the rest of games against Oakland, Washington, and Minnesota.

 

[Forecast 28]

Re: Couple thoughts on tonight's game CHI/STL

MGM: Keep in mind St. Louis has not been remotely close to a cover
since Orlando Pace went down for the season three games ago...Some
say he is as good an offensive lineman as there is in the NFL...The Rams
lost by 15 at Carolina as a six point underdog, beat SF by three at
home as a 5 point favorite (but were behind for almost the entire
game), and lost by 14 at home to Arizona as a 6.5 point favorite...
In those three games, their offensive line has allowed 13 sacks
(about as high as it gets for three games) and Marc Bulger has
thrown five interceptions...And even without Tommie Harris, the
Bears probably still have an elite front seven...I am not planning
on taking the Bears, but there are some bad matchups here
for St. Louis.

 

[mgmhatesme]

Re: Couple thoughts on tonight's game CHI/STL

True Forecast, good points... STL 0-3 ATS without Pace and Chicago is a healthy 8-4 ATS this year. The Bears do have a deep DL rotation and can afford to miss 1 person, but the Bears will have to decide whether they want someone there that will stuff the run (Boone, Scott) or someone that will rush the passer (Tank, Brown, Idonije). The OL/DL matchups were similiar when the Bears played Arizona on MNF. The Cards did pretty well early in that game by hitting quick passes, 3 and 5 step drops, and avoiding the 7 step drops. The Rams can do this same exact thing as they have a deep WR group against a banged up secondary. I also expect the Rams to come out more no-huddle to keep the Bears DL from rotating the right players they want based on down and distance.

Rams have not played well lately, but on their only MNF game this year, at home, they either win outright or they miss the playoffs. It has come down to that... I think they will be game tonight, its obviously more risky looking at them as a ML winner... I might recommend an approach of something like 1 unit over, 0.5 STL + points, 0.5 unit STL ML. Fri Last week I played the over at 40 at pinnacle before it went up. I dont like the idea of a former coach of the Rams coming back which may help provide a little motivation and was unsure of the side at first glance, but I really dont like the way Grossman is playing and think that the Rams have more to play for in this spot.

 

[3pointdog]

Re: Couple thoughts on tonight's game CHI/STL

it is going to be a lot like plummers last game in den when he knew if he didnt perform well he was done... he did not do well under that kind of pressure and we all know Rex does not do well under any kind of pressure...

lets bang em'.... hard.

 

[Forecast 28]

Re: Couple thoughts on tonight's game CHI/STL

MGM: Sounds like STL may come with their A game tonight, but good that you mentioned head coach going back to former team where he was assistant...There were two upsets yesterday with Mike McCarthy back to San Francisco, and
Sean Payton back to Dallas...And earlier in the year, there was Eric
Mangini back to New England for another big upset.... Lovie Smith back to St. Louis is the first one as a favorite and it is not as
current as the other three, but might provide some motivation for a
team that knows it will be in the playoffs.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: Couple thoughts on tonight's game CHI/STL

Nice post MGM and solid responses. I noticed with the picks you emailed me last week that you had an amazing week. Keep up the good work.

 

[mgmhatesme]

Re: Couple thoughts on tonight's game CHI/STL

it also makes me somewhat nervous that the Public seems to be backing the dog enough to keep the spread down under 7, as usually people don't have much of an appetite for dogs especially prime-time games. But no game is a certainty... anyone can and should be able to make a case for both sides to cover... we just need to determine what people may be missing, determine what is the right info to listen to and what to filter out...

for a Bears cover:
- Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson and a solid OL vs 31st ranked run D
- Bears may want to play hard for Lovie against his former team
- Lovie may know a few things about the weaknesses of some of his defensive players
- Grossman should be familiar with cover 2 defense
- Bears pass rush should be able to get some sacks against a weak OL without Pace

for Rams:
- Need to win this game to make playoffs
- first and only MNF game this year
- at home
- solid WR group against a depleted secondary of the Bears
- Grossman's turnover problems
- off-surface for Bears
- Bears rush defense allowed 178yds to Vikings last week and overall generally leaves lanes open as they "play the run on the way to the passer." Tank Johnson is terrible at defending the run as all he cares about is sacks.

 

[mgmhatesme]

Re: Couple thoughts on tonight's game CHI/STL

BG, yeah it was a great week, noticed you had an awesome week also, gratz. GL tonight, will be interested in seeing your write-up if you decide to do one.

Forecast, I noticed that... In looking at a Rams wager, I dislike the fact the Bears may want to win for the coach and that he may have some info to attack certain defensive players. If they didnt have that going for them tonight, they wouldnt have much of anything I dont think regarding motivation. They already have national respect and have already clinched division. They are playing for home-field, but currently have a 1.5 or 2 game lead (not sure about the tie-breaker with the Saints) Many players should not care much whether they win or lose tonight.

 

[The General]

Re: Couple thoughts on tonight's game CHI/STL

I'v had Bulger and Holt in my fantsy league mainly as starters all yr and they have not been consistent. Suppposedly Bulger shared his displeasure with the team this week. We'll see how the players react. I expect and under in the game, but fade me.