1ShotNLife
EOG Enthusiast
LSU over Notre Dame will be my biggest exposure since the Rutgers over Louisville play in early November. I have analysed the hell out of this game and believe the oddsmaker has been caught sleeping. I will release the write-ups for over 59 points between Oregon-BYU on Monday, December 11, and Virginia Tech -3 over Georgia on Tuesday, December 12.
Wednesday January 3, 2007
LSU ? 8 over Notre Dame ? College Bowl Game of the Year
Preponderance of angles support LSU side that not only outmatches Notre Dame in almost every area of the field, but will have no problem being emotionally prepared covering single digit number in anticipation of biggest bowl game since Nich Saban national title days for Tigers.
Notre Dame?s main weakness, their vulnerable secondary, plays perfectly into LSU?s strength (LSU?s passing game). Much like USC?s Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith tormented and out-muscled Irish DB?s and safeties, look for similar dynamic to unfold in Sugar Bowl with WR trio of Bowe, David, and Doucet. Tiger QB Jamarcus Russell (#3 in country in pass efficiency) should scorch Irish team that is simply outclassed as this game is the softest number in the College Football Bowl Rotation.
Conversely, Notre Dame?s passing strength and star QB Brady Quinn should struggle as athletically gifted and dynamic LSU secondary (#3 pass def in country) are poised to stymie WRs Samarja, McKnight and returning TE Carson. Notre Dame?s two losses( Michigan and USC), and more importantly three close calls (Mich St., UCLA, and Georgia Tech) exposed them for being a marginal team with a lucrative bowl agreement putting them in a spot that sees a step up in class on both sides of the ball they will not be able to handle .
QB Quinn has been under pressure for most of season (30 sacks, Irish 90<SUP>th</SUP> in country in sacks allowed), and do not see a respite as LSU can pressure QB?s with best in the country (3<SUP>rd</SUP> in sacks with 3.5 per game). Game should unfold with aggressive LSU defense applying constant pressure on Irish which leads to 3 turnovers setting up 17 pts off of turnovers. See run game marginalized as early LSU scores force Quinn to pass from onset, thereby putting Heisman candidate in compromising passing downs against LSU strength. Foresee numerous 2<SUP>nd</SUP> and 3<SUP>rd</SUP> and longs, only exacerbating Notre Dames match-up malaise .
Conclusion ? Oddsmaker caught napping as softest line on the board (-8 at open, presently at -9) gives tremendous value on LSU side that should be able to take advantage of numerous match-up advantages, both offensively and defensively, allowing LSU to win the game by 21-28 pts.
Cheers,
John
Wednesday January 3, 2007
LSU ? 8 over Notre Dame ? College Bowl Game of the Year
Preponderance of angles support LSU side that not only outmatches Notre Dame in almost every area of the field, but will have no problem being emotionally prepared covering single digit number in anticipation of biggest bowl game since Nich Saban national title days for Tigers.
Notre Dame?s main weakness, their vulnerable secondary, plays perfectly into LSU?s strength (LSU?s passing game). Much like USC?s Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith tormented and out-muscled Irish DB?s and safeties, look for similar dynamic to unfold in Sugar Bowl with WR trio of Bowe, David, and Doucet. Tiger QB Jamarcus Russell (#3 in country in pass efficiency) should scorch Irish team that is simply outclassed as this game is the softest number in the College Football Bowl Rotation.
Conversely, Notre Dame?s passing strength and star QB Brady Quinn should struggle as athletically gifted and dynamic LSU secondary (#3 pass def in country) are poised to stymie WRs Samarja, McKnight and returning TE Carson. Notre Dame?s two losses( Michigan and USC), and more importantly three close calls (Mich St., UCLA, and Georgia Tech) exposed them for being a marginal team with a lucrative bowl agreement putting them in a spot that sees a step up in class on both sides of the ball they will not be able to handle .
QB Quinn has been under pressure for most of season (30 sacks, Irish 90<SUP>th</SUP> in country in sacks allowed), and do not see a respite as LSU can pressure QB?s with best in the country (3<SUP>rd</SUP> in sacks with 3.5 per game). Game should unfold with aggressive LSU defense applying constant pressure on Irish which leads to 3 turnovers setting up 17 pts off of turnovers. See run game marginalized as early LSU scores force Quinn to pass from onset, thereby putting Heisman candidate in compromising passing downs against LSU strength. Foresee numerous 2<SUP>nd</SUP> and 3<SUP>rd</SUP> and longs, only exacerbating Notre Dames match-up malaise .
Conclusion ? Oddsmaker caught napping as softest line on the board (-8 at open, presently at -9) gives tremendous value on LSU side that should be able to take advantage of numerous match-up advantages, both offensively and defensively, allowing LSU to win the game by 21-28 pts.
Cheers,
John
arty
