Tools NBA season thread

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Just started working on different things to handicap NBA games. For this test, i'm going to be using:

-Linear regression for pts per game based on offensive and defensive rankings to arrive at a final score. I'm also going to use

-Effeciency ratings that basically compares how many possessions a team averages and how many points they score per possession. Then i get an estimated possession count for a team for a game and figure out how many points they will score off of that.

If both of these scores are +3 difference from the actual line AND all the starters for both teams are playing it will be a play. I'm only going to cap certain games a day for this. I might even just pick one game a day b/c this stats crunching takes quite a bit of time. If anyone has any experience with these two strategies of handicapping please share your knowledge. I used Linear regression during NFL and it worked pretty well for me.
 

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tools NBA season thread

2/20/07

First pick with this system.

LR: Mem-111, Sea-112
ER: Mem-100, Sea-103.5

Should be a pretty close game, +7 is just to much to be laying.

If all normal starters are playing, the play is

Mem +7
 

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tools NBA season thread

Thx arch, i see your doing well at 64%. Keep up the good work my man!!
 

Archangel8

EOG Veteran
Re: Tools NBA season thread

tough loss by Memphis...they just didn't couldn't keep up...get them tomorrow...good luck
 

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tools NBA season thread

2/21/07

Play for today:

LR: NY -4
ER: NY 1.3
Actual line Phi -2.5

NY +3 (bought .5)
 

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tools NBA season thread

Just found something odd about my system...check it out and tell me what u think

if i were to fade everything i come up with, heres how things would have been the past 2 days:

2/20/07

Sea-didn't qualify They covered
Boston-didn't qualify They covered
Atl- didn't qualifty They didn't cover
SA- didn't qualifty They covered
Orl- didn't qualifty They didn't cover

Would have been 3-2

Now today would have gone like this

NY- qualify Down big more than likely NOT covering
SA- didn't qualify About to cover
Cha- didn't qualifty We'll see how this goes
Mia-didn't qualify We'll see how this goes
Por-didn't qualifty We'll see how this goes

Games that Qualify pick the other team....games that DONT qualify, pick that team.

Gonnna test this out this week
 

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tools NBA season thread

Final results of the fades

NY- qualify Didnt cover
SA- didn't qualify Might have been push or no cover?
Cha- didn't qualifty Covered
Mia-didn't qualify Didnt Cover
Por-didn't qualifty Covered

Would have been 3-1 leaving out the SA game. That game was either a lose or a push depending on what the line was when i could have bought it. Regardless, the fades have made profit.

Last 2 nights would be 6-3

I'll keep testing out the regular and the fades.
 

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tools NBA season thread

2/22/07
**TESTING**

Fade plays are:

Was -5
Dal -12 (bought .5)

No reg. plays for today.
 

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tools NBA season thread

Fade plays for 2/23/07
**Testing**

Phi +3
Det -2
 
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