NCAA Friday Plays..

K

kcjhawk3

EOG Senior Member
Just a very bland start to postseason play. Hopefully we can start to get it going today. Here are my early plays and I will be back later with afternoon and night thoughts:

Albany +8.5 (-108)- After a pretty boring day yesterday I think the tide will change today and it could start here. Virginia is way overseeded in this tournament and they are not playing well at all right now as they have lost their last two games. Their defense or lack there of that ranks 158th in DE could really spell problems today. The Cavs really don't turn their opponents over at all and Albany led by Jamar Wilson is a formidable offensive team and I think they can hang around by simply scoring points in this game. Virginia is just 5-9 ATS as a favorite because of their poor defense and I think Albany will be in this game until the end and the Great Danes seem to raise their game when the lights are shining the brightest.

North Texas +18 (-101)- You know the Sun Belt has fallen on hard times when they are 18-point dogs in the first round of the tournament, but I think North Texas will show themselves well today. First of all they are a very mature team that is chalked full of juniors and seniors and it takes men to compete with the size and athletic ability of the Tigers. Also this team is playing so well right now. They have won 5 straight and covered in all of them. They usually rise their game when playing better compeitiion as they have gone 7-2 ATS against teams with winning records. You have to score to compete with Memphis and UNT ranks 97th in OE and I am still a bit suspect of Memphis.

YTD- 312-275 +10.84 units
 
K

kcjhawk3

EOG Senior Member
Re: NCAA Friday Plays..

Late afternoon plays:

Texas A&M-CC/Wisconsin Under 135 (-105)- I see no reason why Wisconsin isn't going to want to keep this game low scoring. Corpus Christi's game is very simple in that they want to run and utilize their primary strength and that is their offense. That is exactly what the Badgers are so great at taking away from teams. Wisconsin ranks 292nd in pace and they are a great defensive team ranking 5th in DE. The Badgers have been playing brutally ugly games of late that have resulted in 6 of 7 going under going under to end the season and I expect a similar effort tonight.

Nevada -1.5 (-113)- Nevada really got a raw deal being placed as a number 7 seed considering their season going 28-4 and they have a point to prove as a result. I think in this game Nevada is simply the more talented and athletic team. They are a core of players led by Fazekas that has played together for a very long time. Their greatest strength is their great scoring ability ranking 10th in DE and I think that will be the difference in this game. Nevada is a bad matchup for the Jays as they have gone 6-0 ATS against teams that hold their opponents to under 64 a game. Nevada has too much firepower for Creighton.

LBSU +8 (-111)- My Virginia play isn't looking good, but LBSU is a far superior team to Albany. LBSU has the athletes to hang around this game and the offense to exploit a weak Vols defense. When you look at pace in this game I feel that LBSU will be completely prepared for the Vols uptempo style because they play that exact style. LBSU is playing great ball as a team right now as they have covered 8 of their last 10 games and I just not covinced that Tennessee is near good enough to cover this spread.
 
Ags Win

Ags Win

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Re: NCAA Friday Plays..

Great thread and advice, jhawk...well, until lenbb decided to litter in yours as he has all the other ones, that is.
 
Ags Win

Ags Win

2
Re: NCAA Friday Plays..

Thanks for cleaning up the SPAM, mods...you do a great job. Now I'm the one cluttering up Hawk's thread - SORRY about that! I promise those were in response to a post...I promise. Good luck Hawk.
 
K

kcjhawk3

EOG Senior Member
Re: NCAA Friday Plays..

Just can't seem to get on a roll at all in this tournament. Hope to get 3-1 tonight and get something going. If all goes well early I may add a play late.

Kansas -18.5 (-106)- The Jayhawks have the most to prove of any of the 1 seeds in their first game considering none of the players in this game for KU has ever won an NCAA Tournament game. I just think that Niagara is not a good matchup for the Jayhawks. Niagara is going to try and run and their already suspect defense that ranks 230th in DE is going to get really exploited by offensive rebounds and easy baskets in transition. The impressive offesnive performance by Clif Brown and the Purple Eagles in the play-in game is only going to motivate the Jayhawk's 1st ranked defensive team to shut down Niagara even more. KU is going to try to step on Niagara's throat tonight and I don't see them letting up.

VT -2.5 (-113)- If Stanford proved anything it is that Illinois, Arkansas, and Stanford are not very good. Illinois simply cannot score enough to compete with good teams like VT. They rank 154th in OE and they have really been exploited when they climb the ranks as they are just 5-14 ATS against teams with winning records. VT is a team that plays great when motivated and with their seniors I see no reason why they don't come out guns a blazing tonight and play well. When you consider the talent levels and the resumes of who these teams have beat it should be a DD victory for the Hokies. Illinois simply put is a NIT team.

USC -2 (-105)- Same story applies to Arkansas in this game. This to me is a near identical game to the VT game. Arkansas really struggles when they face teams that can defend well because they can really struggle to score ranking 114th in OE and the Trojans are a very solid defensive team. We also have yet another case of the veterans of USC who have never really played in NCAA Tournament games will come out highly focused in this matchup. USC is the better team and they are another team that raises their level of play when playing quality teams going 18-6 ATS against teams with winning records and I see them really putting the clamps down on the Hogs attack.

Holy Cross +8 (-107)- My primary weakness all tourney long as been with spreads very similar to this, but I feel this one could be different. Holy Cross is a very well coach team by Ralph Willard and this is a team that is brimming with confidence right now losing just two games since the beginning of 2007. Holy Cross can play the type of game that SIU wants to play. They rank 6th in DE and they have a very gifted scorer in Keith Simmons that has the ability to avoid the prolong droughts that SIU frequently thrusts upon their opponents. SIU is just 10-13 ATS when favored and they frequently are locked in close, low-scoring battles. I think that Holy Cross will stick in this game and the Salukis always struggle at pushing out leads.
 
K

kcjhawk3

EOG Senior Member
Re: NCAA Friday Plays..

Quick NIT add:

Marist +7 (+101)- I really think it is human nature for NC State to have a huge letdown spot tonight. They get to play at home and I would be very surprised if they have the same type of effort they have had over the last week. First of all this is their 6th game in the 8 days which has to wear on them. Also Marist seems to be one of the more excited teams to be in the NIT as anyone when you look at how they reacted to their big win at OSU. Marist didn't even shoot the ball well in that game at 37% and they are a better offensive team than that and NC State is not a great defensive bunch ranking 107th in DE. Marist isn't going to be run out of the gym tonight and they play a very similar style to NC State and I really could see Marist winning another road game at a BCS school.
 
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