buffettgambler
EOG Veteran
As explained in this thread here, http://forums.eog.com/baseball-betting/a-fundamental-approach-to-handicapping-baseball-78339.html I derive an intrinsic value for every baseball game using my valuation model. Here are the intrinsic values (not the expected market lines) for the opening day games (give or take a few games due to some injuries that may or may not prevent some players from playing).
The first set of numbers represents the intrinsic values of both teams. The next set of numbers represents the equivalent market equilibrium price. The last set of numbers represents the margin of safety required for both teams, essentially meaning what the lowest possible price has to be to place a bet on that team.
NYM@ STL +130/-130 +126/134 +142/-120
Comment: The opening line of this game just came out at pinnacle, and is currently at the exact equilibrium price that is adjusted for vig. No value on either team.
Atl@ Phi +115/-115 +111/-119 +127/-105
Fla @ Was -107/+107 -111/+103 +104/+121
Lad@ Milw +163/-163 +159/-167 +181/-145
Comment: I am expecting the Brewers to opening up at a price well below their intrinsic value in this game and more than likely under my margin of safety, making them a play on opening day. A lot of hidden value in this game is derived based on the notion both starting pitchers are very situational pitchers. Lowe has several unfavorable factors in this match up, while it is quite the opposite for Sheets
Chic@ Reds -135/+135 -139/+131 120/+170
Comment: Expect the Cubs to open up below their intrinsic value in this game. The Reds should be one of the more overvalued teams during the first month of the season.
Pit@ Hou +226/-226 +220/-232 +255/-200
Comment: This simply is not a good fundamental match up for Duke. Expect the Astros to be slightly undervalued in this game.
Tor/Det -105/+105 109/+101 +106/+118
Bos/KC -102/+102 -106/-102 +107/+114
Comment: There probably won?t be another game on Monday that will deviate more from its intrinsic value than this one. I am expecting the Royals to be a nice value play in this game.
Oak/Sea +146/-146 +142-150 +162/-136
Comment: Expect the Mariners to trade below their intrinsic value.
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The first set of numbers represents the intrinsic values of both teams. The next set of numbers represents the equivalent market equilibrium price. The last set of numbers represents the margin of safety required for both teams, essentially meaning what the lowest possible price has to be to place a bet on that team.
NYM@ STL +130/-130 +126/134 +142/-120
Comment: The opening line of this game just came out at pinnacle, and is currently at the exact equilibrium price that is adjusted for vig. No value on either team.
Atl@ Phi +115/-115 +111/-119 +127/-105
Fla @ Was -107/+107 -111/+103 +104/+121
Lad@ Milw +163/-163 +159/-167 +181/-145
Comment: I am expecting the Brewers to opening up at a price well below their intrinsic value in this game and more than likely under my margin of safety, making them a play on opening day. A lot of hidden value in this game is derived based on the notion both starting pitchers are very situational pitchers. Lowe has several unfavorable factors in this match up, while it is quite the opposite for Sheets
Chic@ Reds -135/+135 -139/+131 120/+170
Comment: Expect the Cubs to open up below their intrinsic value in this game. The Reds should be one of the more overvalued teams during the first month of the season.
Pit@ Hou +226/-226 +220/-232 +255/-200
Comment: This simply is not a good fundamental match up for Duke. Expect the Astros to be slightly undervalued in this game.
Tor/Det -105/+105 109/+101 +106/+118
Bos/KC -102/+102 -106/-102 +107/+114
Comment: There probably won?t be another game on Monday that will deviate more from its intrinsic value than this one. I am expecting the Royals to be a nice value play in this game.
Oak/Sea +146/-146 +142-150 +162/-136
Comment: Expect the Mariners to trade below their intrinsic value.
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