MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

[buffettgambler]

Thanks guys for the compliments yesterday. I may add up to three games later today depending on future line movement.




Devil Rays @ Yankees
Play: Devil Rays +270
Intrinsic Value: +217
Consider Betting Price: +249
Comment:
It?s hard to pass up any team at this price this early in the season. This holds especially true for a pesky Devil Rays team that has always played the Yankees hard. Even when being backed by the best lineup in baseball, at this point of his career, it?s hard to make a case for Pettite warranting such a rich line. It took a while for Pettitte to find himself last year, as he was one of the worst pitchers in the league during the first half of the season. Don?t be surprised if he starts slow out of the gates once again this year, as he has always been known as a slow starter. Although Pettitte could be a problem for young and impatient lineups, he is a finesse pitcher that feels much more comfortable pitching to hitters he has a past history against. Case and point was last year, when he struggled against inferior lineups that he didn?t have hitters with a past history. The Devil Rays have one of the most underrated lineups in the American league, stockpiled with young talent who has shown a propensity to play to the level of their competition.

There is not much to like about the Devil Rays pitching match up against the Yankees lineup. The Devil Rays send a mediocre starter on the mound that is backed by the worst pen in baseball, and must face the best lineup in baseball. However I feel that I am being more than compensated for this huge disadvantage with the price books are offering for people to take the Devil Rays. Even though I think the Devil Rays have the worst chance of winning on Wednesday compared to any other team, they hold one of the better values, trading over 50 basis points off of their intrinsic value.
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[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

Blue Jays @ Tigers
Play: Tigers -104
Intrinsic Value: -125
Consider Betting Price: -115
Comment:
It seems like books really think highly of the Blue Jays this year, but possibly too highly. It?s rare for a book to disrespect the prior years league champs this early in the season, and I won?t hesitate taking this good of a home team when undervalued. Robertson is coming off his best year, and is at a prime age to continue his upward trend. He has always been prone to have dead arm late in the season, and has put forth one of the higher disparities of pre and post all star break numbers since entering the league. Simply put, if bettors plan to back Robertson, they should do it early in the season when he is much more effective. The Blue Jays killed southpaws all last year, and it is no surprise that Robertson struggled against them. However, their lineup is not as dangerous against southpaws (but still dangerous) this year, and the loss of Molina should benefit Robertson, as no other player on last years lineup gave him more problems. There are no big bats remaining that have shown to have the upper hand against Robertson. Being backed by one of the deepest and best bullpens in the league should allow the Tigers to curtail the Blue Jays bats throughout the game. Although the Blue Jays have a potent lineup, there might not be a lineup in baseball that has shown a higher disparity of productivity at home compared to the road.

When on, Burnett is one of the hardest pitchers to hit. However, being on is a guessing game with him, making him not a terribly compelling bet on the road when not getting basis points in compensation. Since coming off TJ surgery, he has been on a heavily monitored pitch count, which should hold especially true this early in the season. Combine that with the notion of his high rate of pitches per batter, and Burnett going more than five innings in this game might be hard. This does not bode well for the Blue Jays, as although they a decent bullpen, their value comes from the backend and lack the ideal depth to replace Burnett early. The Tigers have a deep lineup that hit well at home last year despite their pitch friendly confines.
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[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

Indians @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -102
Intrinsic Value: -118
Consider Betting Price: -108
Comment:
With the way the line moved off the open, it seems like the public has once again fallen in love with the Indians bats. As a value bettor, I will gladly go against them when this event occurs. With Contreras and Buerhle?s true worth well below their perception and market price, Garland probably provides White Sox bettors the most value, as he might be the best pitcher on the team, yet doesn?t get the same respect as the other two when it comes to market pricing. After following 05?s career year slowly, Garland bounced back late last season, posting a solid ERA well below four after the break. Although he has the propensity to allow a lot of home runs, making him vulnerable pitching in a hitters park, he has actually performed much better at home, including a solid start against the Indians here last year. He has done a good job limiting his walks, which could prevent the Indians bats from doing damage and keep him out of the wind up. The White Sox performances are correlated to emotion more than most teams, leading me to believe that this may be a good spot for them to bounce back after opening day?s embarrassment.

The Indians are not the only lineup in this game that could do damage against any pitcher in the league, as the White Sox have one of the best lineups in the league, and is tailor made for this park. Today they have a good chance to showcase just that, as they are up against a pitcher that they have had past success against. Westbrook has always struggled on the road, and appears to be getting less comfortable away from home, posting a five plus road ERA last year. If he wants to turn this trend around, he will have to do it against a team whose three best hitters have had the upper hand against him. The addition of Erstad paid immediate dividends Monday, and has a good chance of doing so again today, as he managed six hits in 14 at bats against Westbrook. Westbrook?s early season limited pitch count will force a sub par bullpen to face a potent lineup that they have struggled against more than ideally suitable. Hard to pass up the White Sox at home without having to lay basis points this early in the season.
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[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

Devil Rays @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -108
Intrinsic Value: -140
Consider Betting Price: -130
Comment:
This is the third straight day in a row that I am backing the Rockies, as linesmakers appear to be placing a price tag nowhere near their true worth. I am not terribly excited about betting on Lopez, but feel that he should be backed by some solid run support and a fast ?pulling of the plug? if he struggles. Davis is coming off a horrific year and was rewarded by a suspect signing. Although his numbers should improve off of last year, they should not improve by the amount books are apparently speculating with this line. A change of scenery might help matter, but not having Moehler (the catcher he performed much better with) calling the game should be missed. As mentioned during the past two days, the Rockies have a potent and underrated lineup, and that holds just as true when going up against left handed pitchers. Davis has always been much more effective at home, and not having a past history at Coors has been more of a liability for pitchers than an asset. Not an ideal innings eater and a small pitch count early in the season, should allow the Rockies to see this poor Diamondbacks bullpen for their third consecutive day.

There is not much to like about Lopez, but the lineup he is up against compliments his style. He lacks an overpowering pitch, forcing him to depend on movement and location. Going up against a young and impatient lineup should help his strategy of forcing hitters to swing at bad pitches. Being backed by a bullpen with relievers that could eat up more than an inning at a time should allow the Rockies to pull the plug on him early. At even price at home, I will take a stab at him.
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[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

Rangers @ Angels
Play: Angels -144
Intrinsic Value: -172
Consider Betting Price: -160
Comment:
Like the Rockies, this is the third straight game I am on the Angels. As I am not terribly bullish on the Angels in my valuation model, it appears that most of the value on them is a byproduct of an overvaluation on the Rangers. This is the third straight game in which the Rangers overrated lineup is set up to face quality pitching from inning one to nine I this game. Although not getting the recognition compared to other young pitching prospects in the American League, Santana has a bright future ahead of him. He is also a fundamental cappers dream, as he is a very situational pitcher. Working in his favor is that he has shown one of the highest disparities of home and away numbers over the last couple of years, and generating a 3.09 home ERA in that time span has been matched by just a handful of pitchers. Although the Rangers bats have got the upper hand over Santana, they have yet to show capable of doing damage at Santana?s home, as he put forth a quality start both times in this park. Being backed by an elite bullpen should give the Angels the advantage in the later innings.

McCarthy was a big name prospect a lot of teams wanted early last year, but Cooper and Williams were not willing to give up on him at all costs. This was due to him possessing one of the best 12 to 6 curves in the league. However, displaying a consistent lack of location and then confidence in this pitch gave the White Sox reason to open up options. Although mostly a bullpen pitcher, he didn?t reach six innings once last year, and shouldn?t again Wednesday. Being backed by a bullpen that lacks depth should allow the Angels improved lineup to have scoring opportunities throughout this game.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

Red Sox @ Royals
Play: Royals +146
Intrinsic Value: +112
Consider Betting Price: +127
Comment:
Put an overrated and overpriced team up against an underrated under priced team and it is no surprise the Royals are coming with some nice value in this game. They showed on opening day that they have young bats spread around the lineup that could do their fair share of damage. They are primed for potentially another big game, as they face a power pitcher that is not afraid to go at a hitter, which is exactly what a young and aggressive lineup wants. In fact, Becket was one of the worst first pitch pitchers in baseball last year, and with a depreciating curveball, will be forced to throw more favorable pitches for the Royals again this year. Beckett has always been more comfortable at home, while the Royals are one of the more underrated home hitting teams in the league. If the Royals are once again able to jump out early and prevent Papplebon from being a factor and the Red Sox will be forced to put up mediocre pitchers on the mound after Beckett.

Perez has been a big waste of talent. Along with his injuries has been a lack of motivation stemmed by the not liking how he was treated in Las Angeles. Starting the season with a new team from the beginning might revitalize his career. He pitched well in his only start against Boston last year, and might put forth another solid outing, as the Red Sox are a lineup much more potent at home and against right handed pitchers. Although not backed by a solid bullpen, I feel more than compensated for this concern with the market price I am getting.
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[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

A?s @ Mariners
Play: A?s -115
Intrinsic Value: -136
Consider Betting Price: -118
Comment:
Note: I got in on this line early yesterday at -105. At most shops current price, the A?s trade at a price above my target entry position.
I claimed a couple of years ago that Harden and Hernandez will be the two most dominant pitchers in the American League in the upcoming years. Backing Hernandez paid off on opening day, and getting value on Harden just two days later is nice. Harden has lacked durability, but when healthy has been flat out dominant. He brings to the table a mid 90?s fastball with a lot of movement, a nasty hard slider and effective changeup. He is one of the hardest pitchers to hit, and his only concern has been his lack of control at times- a deficiency that is minimized against free swinging lineups. That is exactly what he is up against on Wednesday with the Mariners lineup. It is no surprise that Harden has owned the Mariners in the past few years, pitching 42 innings and allowing just seven runs (1.49 ERA and sub one whip). Being backed by the second best bullpen in the American league will make it really hard for the Mariners to put runs on the board throughout this game.

A converted bullpen pitcher, Batista left the American league last year to become a starter for the Diamondbacks. The result was an unimpressive ERA and high Whip. The reward was a trip back to the American league and a 9 million dollar contract. In his mid 30?s, the best years are now behind him. Although up against an anemic lineup, it is a lineup that has given him a lot of problems in the past, as he has posted a five plus ERA against the A?s. Batista has actually preferred pitching on the road throughout his career, and has been noticeably easier to pick up at the night. His propensity to allow a high rate of base runners should hurt him in this game, as the A?s lack power and are best when in a manufacturing runs role. He is not known to eat up innings, which is a concern for the Mariners, as he is backed by a bullpen that now lacks depth with two key free agent losses.
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[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

Padres @ Giants
Play: Padres +104
Intrinsic Value: -128
Consider Betting Price: -115
Comment:
Wrong team favored in this game, but I am not surprised. Don?t get me wrong, I am a big fan of Cain, and was actually touting him before most ever heard of him. When on, his stuff is as overpowering as any. But finding that comfort zone is hard for him this early in the season. Last year he really struggled early on, as locating his pitches simply not happening. If history repeats itself, the Padres have the lineup to take advantage of this lack of control Cain is also a pitcher that is much better suited being on a team that has a solid bullpen, as his propensity to accumulate high pitch counts early in games forces an early exit. This does not bode well for him, as he is backed by a sub par bullpen. Cain dominated the Padres in every game last year, but faced them each time in the second half of the season. His propensity to be rusty early on leaves me to believe that he might struggle more this time. Either way, he shouldn?t see more than six innings, and possibly not even that.

I don?t think there was a more dominant road pitcher in baseball last year compared to Young, a pitcher who has always preferred pitching on the road. Last year, he was nearly unhittable pitching on the road, posting a 2.41 ERA and 1.71 OBA. He also showed his best stuff prior to the break. Although he has yet to pitch at this park, it is a park tailor made for his fly ball pitching tendencies. Young was dominant against both right and left handed bats, a nice asset against a balanced lineup like the Giants. Being backed by the best bullpen in the national league will make it hard for the Giants to score throughout this game. I will take the basis points and the Padres.
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[mgmhatesme]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

BG, any thought on the total of the CWS/CLE game? Heavy wind 22-28mph blowing out there. Two lineups that can get some hits to take advantage. The total is at 10.5, -110

Heavy wind at Tor/Det also at 27/28mph but blowing right to left.

Thanks-

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

MGM,
I am going to try to shy away from totals this year (especially early on). But my opinions are:

Routine flyballs in other parks are home runs in Cellular. The wind blowing out will make that park even more live, which could send this total flying over with the bats in both lineups. Both bullpens should be overmatched as well. Hard not to make a case for the Over, but what I dont like is that both starters are sinkerball pitchers (Westbrook has the better sink) that could offset the weather variables by keeping the ball on the ground. Vanover has a strike zone that opens things up for the sink as well. But forced to play a total, and I would easily go with the Over.

In the Toronto game, the wind is blowing out as well, but other weather variables in that game won't make the park as live. My biggest concern with my Tigers bet is the fact Robertson has really been easy to pick up during day game throughout his career. Going up against a Blue Jays lineup that see southpaws well already has me concerned. HPU is more of a pitchers ump, but still a lean on the Over in this game as well.

Good luck today.

 

[zerocage]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

Red Sox @ Royals
Play: Royals +146
Intrinsic Value: +112
Consider Betting Price: +127
Comment:
Put an overrated and overpriced team up against an underrated under priced team and it is no surprise the Royals are coming with some nice value in this game. They showed on opening day that they have young bats spread around the lineup that could do their fair share of damage. They are primed for potentially another big game, as they face a power pitcher that is not afraid to go at a hitter, which is exactly what a young and aggressive lineup wants. In fact, Becket was one of the worst first pitch pitchers in baseball last year, and with a depreciating curveball, will be forced to throw more favorable pitches for the Royals again this year. Beckett has always been more comfortable at home, while the Royals are one of the more underrated home hitting teams in the league. If the Royals are once again able to jump out early and prevent Papplebon from being a factor and the Red Sox will be forced to put up mediocre pitchers on the mound after Beckett.

Perez has been a big waste of talent. Along with his injuries has been a lack of motivation stemmed by the not liking how he was treated in Las Angeles. Starting the season with a new team from the beginning might revitalize his career. He pitched well in his only start against Boston last year, and might put forth another solid outing, as the Red Sox are a lineup much more potent at home and against right handed pitchers. Although not backed by a solid bullpen, I feel more than compensated for this concern with the market price I am getting.
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you're right on.. get the value while you still can on the royals

 

[mgmhatesme]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

Thanks for the reply BG, im going to take a flyer on that CWS/CLE over but pass on the other.

In other weather news:
- TB/NYY game is PPD due to rain
- Slight wind impacts for the Cubs game as well as the Mets game both blowing out around 16mph, but may slow down a tad as the game wears on.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

Devil Rays @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -108
Intrinsic Value: -140
Consider Betting Price: -130
Comment:
This is the third straight day in a row that I am backing the Rockies, as linesmakers appear to be placing a price tag nowhere near their true worth. I am not terribly excited about betting on Lopez, but feel that he should be backed by some solid run support and a fast ?pulling of the plug? if he struggles. Davis is coming off a horrific year and was rewarded by a suspect signing. Although his numbers should improve off of last year, they should not improve by the amount books are apparently speculating with this line. A change of scenery might help matter, but not having Moehler (the catcher he performed much better with) calling the game should be missed. As mentioned during the past two days, the Rockies have a potent and underrated lineup, and that holds just as true when going up against left handed pitchers. Davis has always been much more effective at home, and not having a past history at Coors has been more of a liability for pitchers than an asset. Not an ideal innings eater and a small pitch count early in the season, should allow the Rockies to see this poor Diamondbacks bullpen for their third consecutive day.

There is not much to like about Lopez, but the lineup he is up against compliments his style. He lacks an overpowering pitch, forcing him to depend on movement and location. Going up against a young and impatient lineup should help his strategy of forcing hitters to swing at bad pitches. Being backed by a bullpen with relievers that could eat up more than an inning at a time should allow the Rockies to pull the plug on him early. At even price at home, I will take a stab at him.
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I'll take the liberty to correct typo Devil Rays to Arizona.
Grrrrrrrreat day yesterday, Buffett.............Congrats.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

Thanks hitman.

I might was well put the the intrinsic values of the games I have not bet up.

Reds -130 (Price target -118) Cubs +130 (price target +145)
Dodgers +102 (price target +115) Brewers -102 ( price target +112)
Astros -140 ( price target -128) Pirates +140 ( price target +160)
Mets -106 (price target +104) Cardinals +106 ( price target +121)
Twins -111 ( price target +102) Orioles +111 (price target +128)
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[footdocml]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

Just another note about the weather. It is COLD here in Chicago. Harder to hit in the cold weather. This early in the season you have to look at more than the wind. It is about 41 and very windy which makes it even more miserable.....and sprinkle in a few snow flakes.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

Adding one more play, as late money on the Cubs allowed the Red to hit my target price.


Cubs @ Reds
Play: Reds -115
Intrinsic Value: -130
Consider Betting Price: -118
Comment:
Prior to seasons start I was really looking forward to fading the Reds when Arroyo was on the mound. The reason was that they have an overrated lineup and Arroyo is prone to regress from last years season, which appeared to make them an anti value play. However, that is not the case in this game. The National League had problems with Arroyo and his backwards style. This holds especially true for the Cubs, who were downright dominated by him throughout the season, managing to score just four runs in nearly 36 innings against him. Arroyo pitched his best early in the season, when hitters timing was off, as his high speed velocity and backwards tendencies were maximized. The Cubs improved lineup did not live up to the hype on opening day, and they might have to wait another day. The addition of Soriano should pay dividends today, as his aggressive style was eaten alive by Arroyo last year, as he managed just one hit in 15 at bats. Arroyo?s Achilles heal is his propensity to struggle against left handers, yet the Cubs lineup is loaded from the right side. Even though he allows a lot of home runs and pitches in a hitter?s park, he was one of the best home pitchers in baseball last year.

Lilly has always been one of the worst road pitchers in baseball since entering the league. He has also been plagued throughout his career allowing the long ball, which could really be a problem pitching against a home run hitting lineup in a home run hitting park. He is also prone for a letdown start in this game. Being known to struggle mentally coupled with fighting the flu the last couple of days makes him vulnerable after the adrenaline wears off. Although backed by a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen with four pitchers who have struggled against the Reds.
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[THE SHRINK]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

Thanks for the plays....

 

[mgmhatesme]

Re: MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

another winning day, nice picks BG