Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

Bucsfan67

Bucsfan67

EOG Master
Gonna go ahead and post my plays for Sunday, as i may not be around until about noon.....record does not include Saturday, which sadly looks like its gonna be a losing day, barring some comebacks.....gotta get back on track, and Sunday is a good day to start.....Good luck on your wagers as well...lets close out the weekend big...


TB/Fla OVER 10 (-110).....1 unit

Mets (+108).....2 units

Cincy (+137).....1 unit

Col/Balt UNDER 8.5 (+105)....2 units

SanFran (-127).....1 unit

LADodgers (-110).....2 units

Boston/Ariz UNDER 8 (-105)....3 units (fav play)

Texas (-102).......2 units

LAA/Stl OVER 9 (-110)..... 2 units
 
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FriscoKid

EOG Member
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

A question

I noticed you are posting a lot of totals plays lately. And now you are posting them early (like a day in advance). Do you consider factors like weather and umpire tendencies in your totals capping? If so, isn't that hard to do so far in advance? Surely you can't be capping on the basis of starting pitcher only, for that is exactly how the books set the number. The only edge the players have on totals is on late breaking info that comes out after the number is set, things like umpire tendencies and weather and late breaking scratches in lineups.
 
jacksorbetter

jacksorbetter

EOG Dedicated
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

FriscoKid said:
A question

I noticed you are posting a lot of totals plays lately. And now you are posting them early (like a day in advance). Do you consider factors like weather and umpire tendencies in your totals capping? If so, isn't that hard to do so far in advance? Surely you can't be capping on the basis of starting pitcher only, for that is exactly how the books set the number. The only edge the players have on totals is on late breaking info that comes out after the number is set, things like umpire tendencies and weather and late breaking scratches in lineups.
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Please stop calling him Shirley.
 
IDENTITY

IDENTITY

2
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

frisco - very good question, my friend. however, your question assumes that one cannot make a good play based on the teams, starting pitchers, and general lineups. True, one cannot factor in the umpire, weather, and exact starting lineup, but can't one make an educated opinion based on these facts?
 
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BOBBYW

EOG Dedicated
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

THANX BF AND GLTY.....THERE ARE SO MANY WAYS TO HANDICAPP.....YOU TAKE THE TOP TEN CAPPERS HERE AT EOG AND YOU WILL GET 5 ON ONE SIDE AND 5 ON THE OTHER SIDE.....GO FIGURE
 
Bagiant

Bagiant

EOG Dedicated
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

Maybe we should break it to Frisco that Bucs uses the "coin flip" method for his totals picks.
 
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FriscoKid

EOG Member
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

IDENTITY said:
frisco - very good question, my friend. however, your question assumes that one cannot make a good play based on the teams, starting pitchers, and general lineups. True, one cannot factor in the umpire, weather, and exact starting lineup, but can't one make an educated opinion based on these facts?
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Absolutely. As an example, I can make an educated guess on who will win the 2009 Superbowl as well. However, it might make my educated guess a little less of a guess if I wait for data that will complete the picture, such as rosters, scheduling, 2008 season results, 2009 draft picks, etc. My educated guess actually becomes an edge if I make a futures play on who will win the 2009 Superbowl after the books hang a futures line, but before they adjust accordingly to any data that comes in after they hang that line, and before the money adjusts it to the correct price.

The only reason I am asking that question is because I see a pattern lately of Bucs releasing more and more totals plays, earlier and earlier. No doubt he is a proven long-term winner, so I was wondering if there was a method to this, (perceived) madness, or if this is a by-product of his losing streak. My hope is this isn't a way for him to stick his head in the sand (post a bunch of next days total plays a day early before the previous days record is posted, and walk-away for a day, hoping to see some favorable results when the games are done). If that is the case, some blind followers could get hurt.
 
Bucsfan67

Bucsfan67

EOG Master
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

FriscoKid said:
Absolutely. As an example, I can make an educated guess on who will win the 2009 Superbowl as well. However, it might make my educated guess a little less of a guess if I wait for data that will complete the picture, such as rosters, scheduling, 2008 season results, 2009 draft picks, etc. My educated guess actually becomes an edge if I make a futures play on who will win the 2009 Superbowl after the books hang a futures line, but before they adjust accordingly to any data that comes in after they hang that line, and before the money adjusts it to the correct price.

The only reason I am asking that question is because I see a pattern lately of Bucs releasing more and more totals plays, earlier and earlier. No doubt he is a proven long-term winner, so I was wondering if there was a method to this, (perceived) madness, or if this is a by-product of his losing streak. My hope is this isn't a way for him to stick his head in the sand (post a bunch of next days total plays a day early before the previous days record is posted, and walk-away for a day, hoping to see some favorable results when the games are done). If that is the case, some blind followers could get hurt.
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I apologize for releasing my plays TOO EARLY, as i wasnt gonna be around this morning...

I didnt realize it was gonna HURT the followers.....I should certainly be more considerate of others, and get permissions before posting my plays.....thanks for bringing it to my attention, i will try to do better...
 
Bucsfan67

Bucsfan67

EOG Master
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

BOBBYW said:
THANX BF AND GLTY.....THERE ARE SO MANY WAYS TO HANDICAPP.....YOU TAKE THE TOP TEN CAPPERS HERE AT EOG AND YOU WILL GET 5 ON ONE SIDE AND 5 ON THE OTHER SIDE.....GO FIGURE
Click to expand...


Thanks Bobby...
 
IDENTITY

IDENTITY

2
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

Frisco - Buxy can release his plays whenever he wants. He releases them early to be considerate. So others can get his plays...Otherwise, they would not be posted for us to see.
 
Bucsfan67

Bucsfan67

EOG Master
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

...and to answer your question, although i said i wasnt gonna engage these "conspiracy" theories, and people's baseless accusations, No i am NOT doing anything different...I post what i play, and i play what i like, where i see value....i post early, if i think i wont be around to get them done, its not some COVERUP to post early because i lost....I think i post my record, accurate and visible, as WELL AS ANYONE on any forum...i dont run from my losing days, and dont try to conceal my record EVER.....and besides, just because i have been in a slump lately, my record is NOTHING to hide, or be ashamed of anyway...

End of subject for me...
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

FriscoKid said:
A question

I noticed you are posting a lot of totals plays lately. And now you are posting them early (like a day in advance). Do you consider factors like weather and umpire tendencies in your totals capping? If so, isn't that hard to do so far in advance? Surely you can't be capping on the basis of starting pitcher only, for that is exactly how the books set the number. The only edge the players have on totals is on late breaking info that comes out after the number is set, things like umpire tendencies and weather and late breaking scratches in lineups.
Click to expand...

Home plate umpire assignments (and tendencies) are well known the day before for most baseball games (certainly almost all for Sunday games). MLB doesn't release the assignments for the first game of a series so for these games, the actual umpire assignments aren't known until the lineups are released. Most umpires are fairly neutral to the total over the long run.

Generally, the weather (storms, hot/cold) is pretty well known 24 hours before the game. The exceptions are venues like Wrigley Field where the wind plays an important role as well as venues with retractable domes.

Certainly, late breaking news or player lineup changes can be important, but many times these factors can work in your favor as much as against you.

Overall, for a small percentage of games, certain totals probably should not be played early, especially those with volatile weather and the first game of a series.
 
Mr. NBA

Mr. NBA

EOG Dedicated
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

I always enjoy looking to c who you're on bucs........we all win some and lose some. good luck today and at +54 units I would not complain....lol. im just trying to stay above the mendoza line:bank: .
 
Bucsfan67

Bucsfan67

EOG Master
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

Mr. NBA said:
I always enjoy looking to c who you're on bucs........we all win some and lose some. good luck today and at +54 units I would not complain....lol. im just trying to stay above the mendoza line:bank: .
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Thanks MN, i am happy with my record as well, although its around 47 now after yesterday.....

Am i dissappointed that i have lost back half of my early winnings? HELL YES, I am

But I'm also happy that my start was awesome enough, to be able to endure a cold streak (that we all go through) and STILL BE UP a nice chunk after riding it out......when i got hot again soon, i wont be coming from (-) , i will already be ahead a nice chunk, and be able to build on it..
 
IDENTITY

IDENTITY

2
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

ur having a huge season so far buxy. you dont need to defend yourself. were just having a discussion, buxy.
 
B

BSims

EOG Addicted
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

Wagering early does have the problem of potentially missing some late information. On the other hand, the lines in effect at that time also reflect only knowledge available at that time.
 
guitarjosh

guitarjosh

EOG Addicted
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

The Mets Suck! I still think it was a good bet though.
 
Bucsfan67

Bucsfan67

EOG Master
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

guitarjosh said:
The Mets Suck! I still think it was a good bet though.
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Glavine sure didnt have it today, and im kinda surprised they left him in as long as they did, when he started getting roughed up in the 5th....

Had they got him out alittle sooner, it would still be a game, as the mets have put another 3 runs on the board..
 
IDENTITY

IDENTITY

2
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

shapin out to be a very nice day for ya, buxy. let's hope texas ends an amazing day...
 
Bucsfan67

Bucsfan67

EOG Master
Re: Bucsfan67 Sunday Bases..(295-265, +54.60 units, ytd..)

cheapseats said:
Any lean on the ESPN game tonight...
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not really...i dont know much about this kid they called up to pitch for braves tonight, and while i think Lilly will pitch pretty good against the braves, i dont like that Ramirez is out for Cubs, and Lee is struggling....so im leaving it alone, and rooting for the cubs
 
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