mgmhatesme
EOG Addicted
Hello All, new to the forum, followed Buffettgambler over here and looks like a great site. I am basically copying and pasting some info I posted on another site awhile back, perhaps revising it a bit.
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Not saying I am an expert or that there is not more than one way to skin a cat, but I have done fairly well at capping NFL and like the idea that on a forum like this we can all help each out. What I am going to share is how I cap games -- take what you like, throw away what you don't and please feel free to disagree on anything or add items you feel I may have missed and let's have some good conversations about it.
There are 3 steps that I do each week:
1 - Create/modify my list of Underrated and Overrated teams.
2 - Apply situational matchups
3 - Create your own lines before viewing the oddsmakers
---------------------------------------------------------------
STEP 1: CREATING LIST OF UNDERRATED AND OVERRATED TEAMS.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Basically, you are creating your own ideas of power rankings vs. the public consensus and can do this a variety of ways, doesnt matter to me how you prefer to do it, as long as you form your own opinions and have some way to track this.
I think the primary value in a given line is based on public perception. The first step in this is creating a list of teams that are UNDERRATED and teams that are OVERRATED.
Now, before the season has started to use a baseline for what public perception is the easiest is to look at Super Bowl futures. Feel free to use whatever baseline you like as far as public perception (talking with casual sports fans, preseason NFL guides, etc) to deviate from this baseline list as ultimately you need to live with the picks you make.
INDIANAPOLIS 11-2
NEW ENGLAND 8-1
PITTSBURGH 10-1
SEATTLE 10-1
CAROLINA 12-1
DENVER 13-1
DALLAS 15-1
CHICAGO 16-1
WASHINGTON 18-1
SAN DIEGO 20-1
CINCINNATI 20-1
NEW YORK G 20-1
PHILADELPHIA 22-1
MIAMI 22-1
KANSAS CITY 24-1
JACKSONVILLE 28-1
TAMPA BAY 28-1
ATLANTA 33-1
BALTIMORE 33-1
MINNESOTA 35-1
ARIZONA 40-1
OAKLAND 50-1
ST. LOUIS 66-1
CLEVELAND 66-1
NEW ORLEANS 66-1
DETROIT 80-1
GREEN BAY 80-1
BUFFALO 100-1
TENNESSEE 100-1
NEW YORK J 100-1
HOUSTON 100-1
SAN FRANCISCO 150-1
Now, you can create your own ranking of all 32 teams in order of how good you think they are and create the OVERRATED and UNDERRATED list by the difference between your list and the baseline. Or you can just read and research each team in depth and decide at that point. All 32 teams do not make it on my list before the season starts. Generally I have anywhere from 4-8 teams on each list, in order of how far the public perception is off in my opinion.
If you only plan to wager on NFL sides, then you only need to do the above.
If you would like to also wager on NFL totals, then you will need to go a step further and determine OVERRATED and UNDERRATED DEFENSES and OFFENSES. This is obviously much more difficult to find a baseline for. You really need to get an idea of this from your conversations, sportscenter, NFL preseason mags, and last year's overall rankings. The best place to start is certainly last year's overall rankings and adjust from there.
Keep in mind that you are not trying to find the best teams, YOU ARE LOOKING FOR VALUE. High-profile free agents such as Terrell Owens will obviously help Dallas' offense, but it is an easy candidate to consider for an overrated offense or team as the public notices and values that much more than I do. I also think that you need to consider the "Invisible" free agents such as people coming off season-ending injuries from last year. I think the Bears offense and overall team will be different with Rex Grossman back under center this year as opposed to the restricted offense it was under rookie Kyle Orton last year.
In looking at your overrated/underrated teams, please consider:
- Coaching changes, OC/DC changes may be more telling than HC
- Players that are sliding due to age and may be going on reputation
- 2nd and 3rd year players that may be ready to step up
- "Invisible free agents" - players returning from injury
- draft and free agency
- teams that played above/below head last year
- teams that were good/bad 2 years ago and may revert back this year
seriously consider asking 10 CASUAL football fans what they think are the best and worst teams going into the year, and that may give you a clue as the overrated and underrated teams respectively.
Ask about the free agent moves... and that will tell you which are the highest profile and therefore, a candidate for being overvalued. The under the radar free agents and draft picks are the way a team might have improved and not noticed.
Look beyond the records, to see how teams might have been competitive in many of the games they may have lost, or barely won. It does not take much for those breaks to go the other way.
try to be as objective as possible and remove all hometown bias. Just because thy are your team does not mean they are better, and because you hate a team doesnt mean they stink. I find that many times people have a preset bais, make a decision and then set all their energy towards finding data and making convincing arguments to support a decision they came to before making the research. Not a very scientific approach, but it is hard not to do this... try to avoid making any quick "gut" picks.
Look to back teams that have strong front office and coaching direction and fade teams that do not. I dont think that everything that happens with a team makes it to the media. Proactively look for situations where a team may not be on the same page. The difference between winning and losing in the NFL isnt much. Bill Cowher said it best after the season saying something to the effect that he didnt think they were necessarily the best team in the NFL last year, but that they played the best at the right time. Coaches that can get their teams playing the best is a factor that is often underrated by the general public and the oddsmakers as a result.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
BACK TO THE HOW THE ODDS ARE CREATED:
------------------------------------------------------------------
There is a big misconception that oddsmakers are trying to predict the outcome of a game. For example, Bears -3 against Packers -- general public assumes that the oddsmakers are telling us they expect the Bears to win by 3. WRONG. The oddsmakers are trying to create lines that will give the casinos balanced action.
Let me back up a second... Sportsbooks are brokers. They allow a place for people to make wagers on either side and they take a cut of the profit from the winners. So, in reality when you place that wager at a sportsbook, you are not placing it against some common enemy -- you are in reality placing that wager against other sports bettors (Now in a forum like this we can exchange ideas and all learn and win together, however if the entire sports betting community had the same ideas about a game, lines would be perfectly efficient and unbettable).
A sportsbook does not need equal action on every game, I believe roughly 1/3 of games have too little action to matter, 1/3 have equal action, and 1/3 are the "decisions" that will determine whether a sportsbook makes a profit for that day or not. However, sportsbooks and casinos don't like huge amounts of risk. Casinos are public companies and generally like predictable revenues, they dont want their sportsbooks to risk too much. They are not generally trying to create "trap" games although it certainly comes out looking that way due to public misconception of a game. They dont want to expose themselves to huge amounts of risk and losing a bunch of decisions on any given day. So, they are trying generally to create lines that will have somewhat balanced action. This does not mean they require or expect even action, they realize this will not happen, but that is what the lines are trying to do. LINES ARE NOT A PREDICTION OF THE OUTCOME OF A GAME.
The point of all that, spelled out, is this: Public misconception is the largest inefficiency in a given line for a game. So, creating a list of "What's Hot and What's Not" in the NFL or a list of teams that the general public may be overrating or underrating can give you a starting edge in capping your games. Again, the oddsmakers main fault and therefore greatest opportunity for smart bettors is that the lines are created to get balanced action. This adjustment for the public is where value is often found, but it is not the same thing as fading the public consensus week in and week out. Situations and certain match-ups may override this, it is just a tool, a starting point in the way to cap a game.
Now I could write down a list of teams that I feel are underrated and overrated and odds are you will agree with some and disagree with others. But I really think that you should make these lists your own as you will be the one placing your own money on wagers and it is your responsibility.
-------------------------------------------------------------
ON FUTURES WAGERS:
-------------------------------------------------------------
So, we can talk about various teams going into the year, which basically is a discussion about which teams may have value for Super Bowl futures or regular season win loss totals. It is not exactly the same thing, but it is close. Of course, to say that one thinks the Texans might be improved and underrated is not saying that you think they are a smart Super Bowl futures bet. It is closer to saying that you think they might exceed the expected 5.5 regular season win total but you might only be saying that you expect them to be more competetitive in their games and although they may end up with 5,6,7 wins that they will be more competitive in their games. It might not be enough to put in a futures wager, but it still could be enough to put them on an underrated list.
I do not recommend anyone playing futures that only pay even money or less - .87 on the dollar for many of the regular season win totals. The reason for this is that I think the primary advantage that sportsbetting has over the stock market is the speed at which you get a return on your investment. Basically, sports betting is an investment where you get a 91% return or lose it all in 3 hours. The ability to turnover your bankroll many, many times allows the professional sports bettor to get a good return on his money if he can maintain a certain win percentage between 55-60%. The fact that you have to tie up your money over the course of a season for the same payoff that you could get in 1 game makes these future wagers a waste of money in general. Super Bowl futures are slightly different and can offer value since the payout is typically better then you could get from a single game wager. THE ONLY WAY I WOULD WAGER ON REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS IS IF YOU COULD DO SO ON CREDIT. Perhaps people have locals or various situations where they do not need to deposit money up front and do not need to settle up until the wager is decided. In this case, it would be ok to make this wager.
-------------------------------------------------
STEP 2: APPLY SITUATIONAL MATCHUPS:
-------------------------------------------------
It helps to remember that offenses dont play against each other to see who is best, and defenses don't play against each other either. I constantly see people comparing teams offense vs the other team's offense, etc.
Hopefully you have some type of power rankings for each team on pass offense, run offense, run defense, and pass defense. Keep this updated throughout the year based on injuries or adjustments in your ratings based on play. Try to look for situations where a team runs into a mismatch with a weakness going against another team's strength. I know this seems obvious and it is somewhat, although people typically dont take the time to set up ratings or objective opinions before they look at a wager. So, instead they get brainwashed by the media and the oddsmakers into thinking the same thing. Form your own opinions based on what you have seen personally.
Some situations to keep in mind:
- first home game of the season
- last home game of the season (usually not noticed as much)
- first game in a stadium (Cards have a new stadium this year)
- last game in a stadium
- last game before bye
- first game after a bye
- games after blowout wins
- games after blowout losses
- games after "phony" wins
- games after "phony" losses
- injuries are usually given too much consideration, especially injuries to star players. I look for situations when injuries happen in bunches to a given position like OL, or DB that can really hurt a team. All in all, though the star QB, RB, or WR being out is already reflected in the line and therefore no value as a result.
- look to fade teams playing an away, non-divisional opponent... esp non-conference opponent during middle of the season. Teams are basically told and expect to 1) Protect home field, win all home games. 2) Win all divisional games. These are the goals a team has. So, it is normal for a letdown situation to occur unless the team has to win at the end of the year.
- look to fade "sandwich games." Non-divisional games sandwiched between games with division opponents. Especially if the sandwich game is away.
- look to back teams coming off a public embarassment. Bad performances on a nationally televised game can create value for the following week while also providing motivation for the team.
- look to fade teams that could have a letdown game after a physical, important divisional win, now playing against a non-divisional opponent.
- Look for revenge games or various motivational material during the middle of the season. It is natural for players to get tired during the year, and teams can play flat during the middle of the season. If a certain team has a special reason to get motivated for a game... example Peyton Manning NFL sunday ticket commercial against the Titans where he is beating them 28-3 and then throws another TD asking people why they are watching this game.
- I would expect the general public to back favorites and overs a bit more this year based on how last year went. Look for possible value in dogs and unders. More often than not, no team is as good or as bad as the general public makes them out to be. I am not saying that you blindly be a contrarian. But the point is sometimes there is value on the other side as the oddsmakers have to entice dog and under bettors.
- Fundamental factors and teams playing true to form happen at the beginning and end of seasons. Fundamental cappers usually do better during these times of the year; whereas technical cappers usually do better during the middle of the season as they can recognize times when teams may be more motivated then other.
- Look for coaching changes and continuity. A team may not play up to their capabilities early in the season as they get used to the new coaching staff. Teams like KC may be changing from a high offense, no defense mentality to a running team with an emphasis on defense. Teams like Chicago may have more continuity on offense due to playing with the same OC for 2nd year in a row which hasnt happened in awhile. Tennessee had an OC in Norm Chow that was just adapting to the pro game last year and had some struggles. I think this year will be an improvement.
- Travel. Cross country travel, short weeks (after Mon-night game), going on 3 straight road games or 3 of 4 games on the road, etc. Look to fade teams that may be tired in the middle of the season.
- Weather and field conditions. Dome/turf/perfect weather may help offensive or pass oriented teams, whereas windy, rainy, or poor grass conditions may help defensive or run-oriented teams. Wind or poor grass field conditions are typically not given as much consideration as they should and there might be some value here. Also, home games for florida teams or Arizona in September are a larger than normal home field advanatge. Likewise, home games for Buffalo, GB, Chi etc in December are a larger than normal home field advantage.
- Statistics older than 5yrs are almost never relevant. I think its important to be able to sift through what info is relevant in a wager. I could care less how a team perrformed 10 or 20yrs ago.
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STEP 3: CREATE YOUR OWN LINES:
-------------------------------------
Do this before you view the lines created by the oddsmakers. This way you can be sure that you are not influenced by other opinions. Compare your lines to the oddsmakers and find where the biggest difference lies and those are your value games.
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ON MONEY MGMT:
---------------------
The 2 reasons a casino or spoprtsbook wins in the long run are 1) they have a larger bankroll than the player and are never risking a high percentage of their bankroll and 2) they have a percentage advantage over the player. The casino needs both of these factors to win in the long run. I suggest that the professional or long-term sports bettor to think of themselves as a casino and run their business appropriately.
If you do not have an edge, then you should wager everything in one bet and hope to get lucky. Of course, if you dont have an edge you shouldnt gamble in the first place. Would you flip a coin with your friend and pay him $110 if it lands on heads and get paid only $100 if it lands on tails? Even if some of you degenerates (myself included) said yes, you can plainly see that you could not win in the long term and the only successful "strategy" would be to wager everything in one coin toss and hope to get lucky. If you feel you do have an edge and can win more than you lose (like the friend in the above example), than you should wager a much smaller amount, maybe 1% of your bankroll, and wager it as many times as you can. The friend now is assured of winning. This is the same approach a casino or sportsbook takes.
Be careful of the star-rankings or various ways to increase your bet-size as many overbet their bankrolls. Ranking plays by units usually causes the gambler to increase their units over time and leads to overbetting. It is either a bet or it isnt. NO WAGER IS A LOCK. Remember that... you are always playing value and percentages to win. Think of your pick as a poker hand that you are holding.
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SUMMARY:
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Id like to make a quick comment on what I feel is an interesting point on the psychology of gamblers. I think most people get more enjoyment from picking winners without research. The excitement of making easy money. Unfortunately, its neither that easy nor a long-term path towards success. Certainly the majority of gamblers lose money. Thats why the casinos, sportsbooks, and bookies are all in business and do well year after year. It is a certainty. Each person makes a decision whether they will be a winner or loser before the wager is placed. You need to decide which group you want to be in.
I hope everyone on this forum will help each other have a great NFL season. Have fun in your research until then-
<!-- / message -->
-------------------------------------------------------
Not saying I am an expert or that there is not more than one way to skin a cat, but I have done fairly well at capping NFL and like the idea that on a forum like this we can all help each out. What I am going to share is how I cap games -- take what you like, throw away what you don't and please feel free to disagree on anything or add items you feel I may have missed and let's have some good conversations about it.
There are 3 steps that I do each week:
1 - Create/modify my list of Underrated and Overrated teams.
2 - Apply situational matchups
3 - Create your own lines before viewing the oddsmakers
---------------------------------------------------------------
STEP 1: CREATING LIST OF UNDERRATED AND OVERRATED TEAMS.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Basically, you are creating your own ideas of power rankings vs. the public consensus and can do this a variety of ways, doesnt matter to me how you prefer to do it, as long as you form your own opinions and have some way to track this.
I think the primary value in a given line is based on public perception. The first step in this is creating a list of teams that are UNDERRATED and teams that are OVERRATED.
Now, before the season has started to use a baseline for what public perception is the easiest is to look at Super Bowl futures. Feel free to use whatever baseline you like as far as public perception (talking with casual sports fans, preseason NFL guides, etc) to deviate from this baseline list as ultimately you need to live with the picks you make.
INDIANAPOLIS 11-2
NEW ENGLAND 8-1
PITTSBURGH 10-1
SEATTLE 10-1
CAROLINA 12-1
DENVER 13-1
DALLAS 15-1
CHICAGO 16-1
WASHINGTON 18-1
SAN DIEGO 20-1
CINCINNATI 20-1
NEW YORK G 20-1
PHILADELPHIA 22-1
MIAMI 22-1
KANSAS CITY 24-1
JACKSONVILLE 28-1
TAMPA BAY 28-1
ATLANTA 33-1
BALTIMORE 33-1
MINNESOTA 35-1
ARIZONA 40-1
OAKLAND 50-1
ST. LOUIS 66-1
CLEVELAND 66-1
NEW ORLEANS 66-1
DETROIT 80-1
GREEN BAY 80-1
BUFFALO 100-1
TENNESSEE 100-1
NEW YORK J 100-1
HOUSTON 100-1
SAN FRANCISCO 150-1
Now, you can create your own ranking of all 32 teams in order of how good you think they are and create the OVERRATED and UNDERRATED list by the difference between your list and the baseline. Or you can just read and research each team in depth and decide at that point. All 32 teams do not make it on my list before the season starts. Generally I have anywhere from 4-8 teams on each list, in order of how far the public perception is off in my opinion.
If you only plan to wager on NFL sides, then you only need to do the above.
If you would like to also wager on NFL totals, then you will need to go a step further and determine OVERRATED and UNDERRATED DEFENSES and OFFENSES. This is obviously much more difficult to find a baseline for. You really need to get an idea of this from your conversations, sportscenter, NFL preseason mags, and last year's overall rankings. The best place to start is certainly last year's overall rankings and adjust from there.
Keep in mind that you are not trying to find the best teams, YOU ARE LOOKING FOR VALUE. High-profile free agents such as Terrell Owens will obviously help Dallas' offense, but it is an easy candidate to consider for an overrated offense or team as the public notices and values that much more than I do. I also think that you need to consider the "Invisible" free agents such as people coming off season-ending injuries from last year. I think the Bears offense and overall team will be different with Rex Grossman back under center this year as opposed to the restricted offense it was under rookie Kyle Orton last year.
In looking at your overrated/underrated teams, please consider:
- Coaching changes, OC/DC changes may be more telling than HC
- Players that are sliding due to age and may be going on reputation
- 2nd and 3rd year players that may be ready to step up
- "Invisible free agents" - players returning from injury
- draft and free agency
- teams that played above/below head last year
- teams that were good/bad 2 years ago and may revert back this year
seriously consider asking 10 CASUAL football fans what they think are the best and worst teams going into the year, and that may give you a clue as the overrated and underrated teams respectively.
Ask about the free agent moves... and that will tell you which are the highest profile and therefore, a candidate for being overvalued. The under the radar free agents and draft picks are the way a team might have improved and not noticed.
Look beyond the records, to see how teams might have been competitive in many of the games they may have lost, or barely won. It does not take much for those breaks to go the other way.
try to be as objective as possible and remove all hometown bias. Just because thy are your team does not mean they are better, and because you hate a team doesnt mean they stink. I find that many times people have a preset bais, make a decision and then set all their energy towards finding data and making convincing arguments to support a decision they came to before making the research. Not a very scientific approach, but it is hard not to do this... try to avoid making any quick "gut" picks.
Look to back teams that have strong front office and coaching direction and fade teams that do not. I dont think that everything that happens with a team makes it to the media. Proactively look for situations where a team may not be on the same page. The difference between winning and losing in the NFL isnt much. Bill Cowher said it best after the season saying something to the effect that he didnt think they were necessarily the best team in the NFL last year, but that they played the best at the right time. Coaches that can get their teams playing the best is a factor that is often underrated by the general public and the oddsmakers as a result.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
BACK TO THE HOW THE ODDS ARE CREATED:
------------------------------------------------------------------
There is a big misconception that oddsmakers are trying to predict the outcome of a game. For example, Bears -3 against Packers -- general public assumes that the oddsmakers are telling us they expect the Bears to win by 3. WRONG. The oddsmakers are trying to create lines that will give the casinos balanced action.
Let me back up a second... Sportsbooks are brokers. They allow a place for people to make wagers on either side and they take a cut of the profit from the winners. So, in reality when you place that wager at a sportsbook, you are not placing it against some common enemy -- you are in reality placing that wager against other sports bettors (Now in a forum like this we can exchange ideas and all learn and win together, however if the entire sports betting community had the same ideas about a game, lines would be perfectly efficient and unbettable).
A sportsbook does not need equal action on every game, I believe roughly 1/3 of games have too little action to matter, 1/3 have equal action, and 1/3 are the "decisions" that will determine whether a sportsbook makes a profit for that day or not. However, sportsbooks and casinos don't like huge amounts of risk. Casinos are public companies and generally like predictable revenues, they dont want their sportsbooks to risk too much. They are not generally trying to create "trap" games although it certainly comes out looking that way due to public misconception of a game. They dont want to expose themselves to huge amounts of risk and losing a bunch of decisions on any given day. So, they are trying generally to create lines that will have somewhat balanced action. This does not mean they require or expect even action, they realize this will not happen, but that is what the lines are trying to do. LINES ARE NOT A PREDICTION OF THE OUTCOME OF A GAME.
The point of all that, spelled out, is this: Public misconception is the largest inefficiency in a given line for a game. So, creating a list of "What's Hot and What's Not" in the NFL or a list of teams that the general public may be overrating or underrating can give you a starting edge in capping your games. Again, the oddsmakers main fault and therefore greatest opportunity for smart bettors is that the lines are created to get balanced action. This adjustment for the public is where value is often found, but it is not the same thing as fading the public consensus week in and week out. Situations and certain match-ups may override this, it is just a tool, a starting point in the way to cap a game.
Now I could write down a list of teams that I feel are underrated and overrated and odds are you will agree with some and disagree with others. But I really think that you should make these lists your own as you will be the one placing your own money on wagers and it is your responsibility.
-------------------------------------------------------------
ON FUTURES WAGERS:
-------------------------------------------------------------
So, we can talk about various teams going into the year, which basically is a discussion about which teams may have value for Super Bowl futures or regular season win loss totals. It is not exactly the same thing, but it is close. Of course, to say that one thinks the Texans might be improved and underrated is not saying that you think they are a smart Super Bowl futures bet. It is closer to saying that you think they might exceed the expected 5.5 regular season win total but you might only be saying that you expect them to be more competetitive in their games and although they may end up with 5,6,7 wins that they will be more competitive in their games. It might not be enough to put in a futures wager, but it still could be enough to put them on an underrated list.
I do not recommend anyone playing futures that only pay even money or less - .87 on the dollar for many of the regular season win totals. The reason for this is that I think the primary advantage that sportsbetting has over the stock market is the speed at which you get a return on your investment. Basically, sports betting is an investment where you get a 91% return or lose it all in 3 hours. The ability to turnover your bankroll many, many times allows the professional sports bettor to get a good return on his money if he can maintain a certain win percentage between 55-60%. The fact that you have to tie up your money over the course of a season for the same payoff that you could get in 1 game makes these future wagers a waste of money in general. Super Bowl futures are slightly different and can offer value since the payout is typically better then you could get from a single game wager. THE ONLY WAY I WOULD WAGER ON REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS IS IF YOU COULD DO SO ON CREDIT. Perhaps people have locals or various situations where they do not need to deposit money up front and do not need to settle up until the wager is decided. In this case, it would be ok to make this wager.
-------------------------------------------------
STEP 2: APPLY SITUATIONAL MATCHUPS:
-------------------------------------------------
It helps to remember that offenses dont play against each other to see who is best, and defenses don't play against each other either. I constantly see people comparing teams offense vs the other team's offense, etc.
Hopefully you have some type of power rankings for each team on pass offense, run offense, run defense, and pass defense. Keep this updated throughout the year based on injuries or adjustments in your ratings based on play. Try to look for situations where a team runs into a mismatch with a weakness going against another team's strength. I know this seems obvious and it is somewhat, although people typically dont take the time to set up ratings or objective opinions before they look at a wager. So, instead they get brainwashed by the media and the oddsmakers into thinking the same thing. Form your own opinions based on what you have seen personally.
Some situations to keep in mind:
- first home game of the season
- last home game of the season (usually not noticed as much)
- first game in a stadium (Cards have a new stadium this year)
- last game in a stadium
- last game before bye
- first game after a bye
- games after blowout wins
- games after blowout losses
- games after "phony" wins
- games after "phony" losses
- injuries are usually given too much consideration, especially injuries to star players. I look for situations when injuries happen in bunches to a given position like OL, or DB that can really hurt a team. All in all, though the star QB, RB, or WR being out is already reflected in the line and therefore no value as a result.
- look to fade teams playing an away, non-divisional opponent... esp non-conference opponent during middle of the season. Teams are basically told and expect to 1) Protect home field, win all home games. 2) Win all divisional games. These are the goals a team has. So, it is normal for a letdown situation to occur unless the team has to win at the end of the year.
- look to fade "sandwich games." Non-divisional games sandwiched between games with division opponents. Especially if the sandwich game is away.
- look to back teams coming off a public embarassment. Bad performances on a nationally televised game can create value for the following week while also providing motivation for the team.
- look to fade teams that could have a letdown game after a physical, important divisional win, now playing against a non-divisional opponent.
- Look for revenge games or various motivational material during the middle of the season. It is natural for players to get tired during the year, and teams can play flat during the middle of the season. If a certain team has a special reason to get motivated for a game... example Peyton Manning NFL sunday ticket commercial against the Titans where he is beating them 28-3 and then throws another TD asking people why they are watching this game.
- I would expect the general public to back favorites and overs a bit more this year based on how last year went. Look for possible value in dogs and unders. More often than not, no team is as good or as bad as the general public makes them out to be. I am not saying that you blindly be a contrarian. But the point is sometimes there is value on the other side as the oddsmakers have to entice dog and under bettors.
- Fundamental factors and teams playing true to form happen at the beginning and end of seasons. Fundamental cappers usually do better during these times of the year; whereas technical cappers usually do better during the middle of the season as they can recognize times when teams may be more motivated then other.
- Look for coaching changes and continuity. A team may not play up to their capabilities early in the season as they get used to the new coaching staff. Teams like KC may be changing from a high offense, no defense mentality to a running team with an emphasis on defense. Teams like Chicago may have more continuity on offense due to playing with the same OC for 2nd year in a row which hasnt happened in awhile. Tennessee had an OC in Norm Chow that was just adapting to the pro game last year and had some struggles. I think this year will be an improvement.
- Travel. Cross country travel, short weeks (after Mon-night game), going on 3 straight road games or 3 of 4 games on the road, etc. Look to fade teams that may be tired in the middle of the season.
- Weather and field conditions. Dome/turf/perfect weather may help offensive or pass oriented teams, whereas windy, rainy, or poor grass conditions may help defensive or run-oriented teams. Wind or poor grass field conditions are typically not given as much consideration as they should and there might be some value here. Also, home games for florida teams or Arizona in September are a larger than normal home field advanatge. Likewise, home games for Buffalo, GB, Chi etc in December are a larger than normal home field advantage.
- Statistics older than 5yrs are almost never relevant. I think its important to be able to sift through what info is relevant in a wager. I could care less how a team perrformed 10 or 20yrs ago.
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STEP 3: CREATE YOUR OWN LINES:
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Do this before you view the lines created by the oddsmakers. This way you can be sure that you are not influenced by other opinions. Compare your lines to the oddsmakers and find where the biggest difference lies and those are your value games.
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ON MONEY MGMT:
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The 2 reasons a casino or spoprtsbook wins in the long run are 1) they have a larger bankroll than the player and are never risking a high percentage of their bankroll and 2) they have a percentage advantage over the player. The casino needs both of these factors to win in the long run. I suggest that the professional or long-term sports bettor to think of themselves as a casino and run their business appropriately.
If you do not have an edge, then you should wager everything in one bet and hope to get lucky. Of course, if you dont have an edge you shouldnt gamble in the first place. Would you flip a coin with your friend and pay him $110 if it lands on heads and get paid only $100 if it lands on tails? Even if some of you degenerates (myself included) said yes, you can plainly see that you could not win in the long term and the only successful "strategy" would be to wager everything in one coin toss and hope to get lucky. If you feel you do have an edge and can win more than you lose (like the friend in the above example), than you should wager a much smaller amount, maybe 1% of your bankroll, and wager it as many times as you can. The friend now is assured of winning. This is the same approach a casino or sportsbook takes.
Be careful of the star-rankings or various ways to increase your bet-size as many overbet their bankrolls. Ranking plays by units usually causes the gambler to increase their units over time and leads to overbetting. It is either a bet or it isnt. NO WAGER IS A LOCK. Remember that... you are always playing value and percentages to win. Think of your pick as a poker hand that you are holding.
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SUMMARY:
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Id like to make a quick comment on what I feel is an interesting point on the psychology of gamblers. I think most people get more enjoyment from picking winners without research. The excitement of making easy money. Unfortunately, its neither that easy nor a long-term path towards success. Certainly the majority of gamblers lose money. Thats why the casinos, sportsbooks, and bookies are all in business and do well year after year. It is a certainty. Each person makes a decision whether they will be a winner or loser before the wager is placed. You need to decide which group you want to be in.
I hope everyone on this forum will help each other have a great NFL season. Have fun in your research until then-
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