buffettgambler
EOG Veteran
Here are the Over/Under futures I have (or plan to place) place prior to season’s start. Although most bets have yet to be placed in anticipation of better prices, they are certain to be placed, as they are trading well below intrinsic value. I may add more plays at a later date.
National League
1. Braves Over 86 -105
Comment: Although on paper, the Braves have not improved much, they should accomplish a sizable jump off an 84 win total last season. In my opinion, the Braves may be the most underrated team in the NL, and a top three contender in the league. With a lot of hidden free agents in the likes of Mike Gonzalez (only 18 games last year), Texeria (only 54 games for the Braves), and replacing Soriano for Wickman in the closer role from the onset, provides a lot of hidden value on this team. The Braves possess a very underrated bullpen, and a deep pitching staff and deep lineup necessary to prevent prolong losing streaks. The market is discounting wins from this team in exchange for inflating the totals on the Mets and Phillies.
2. Brewers Over 84 -110
Comment: The Brewers have a makeup of a “sexy” team that is usually accompanied by an inflated line. However, their huge drop-off late last season prevented them from bypassing the 84 win clip they should bypass this year. Despite having a lot of hitters coming off career years, these players possess youth and upside potential that should prevent a letdown season. Sizable improvements from Bush, Weeks, and Capuano should add some wins, while key free agent signings to shore up bullpen concerns provides balance to this team. In my opinion, the Brewers are the best team in their division, yet are being overshadowed the perennial high expectation teams like the Cubs.
3.) Nats Over 71.5 -110
Comment: Believe it or not, I feel that the Nationals are better than 3 to 5 teams in the NL on paper, yet are being priced as if they were only better than two. The other good news is the notion that they are a team that plays better than they do on paper. They are a team that constantly gets swept under the rug as they lack any big name sluggers or anything remotely close to a potent line. However, that is something I have not overlooked (valuing them as the second worst lineup in the NL). What the market has not discounted aside from their gritty play not customary for a cellar team is their above average bullpen and pitching staff that should improve off of last year. 73 wins was their total last year. In my opinion, they will at least match that this year.
4. Cubs Under 87.5 -110
Comment: Rarely will you see the Cubs potential not fully quantified in the market place. This year appears to be no exception, being priced higher than all but two teams in the NL. The Cubs have a good lineup, good bullpen, and good pitching staff. However, good does not cut 88 plus wins. The sub par backend of the rotation and closer question marks is not customary for a team with such high expectations. Like most free agents from Japan, the addition of Fukodome is more hype than substance, and will not go unnoticed in the marketplace.
5. DBacks Under 86.5 -105
Comment: In my opinion, the DBacks are the 4th best team in their division, yet are being priced as if they were second to only the Dodgers. The Dodgers, Padres and Rockies are all carrying small value on their Over win expectancy, which appears to be a conglomeration of the overvalued status of the DBacks. Their pitching staff is very solid, but is very ordinary in the NL West. Webb and Haren is a solid 1-2 punch, but both should drop-off from last year’s numbers. Johnson and Davis are well past their prime, and the high standard deviation of expected returns in their pitching staff should provide for streaks good and bad. The talent pool in the NL West has increased substantially this year- making it an attractive division for an Under play or two. The Dbacks appear to be the most intriguing opportunity for such an approach.
6.) Phillies Under 88 -125
Comment: In my opinion, the Phillies are the most overvalued future in the NL this year. This is not much of a surprise, as teams possessing elite lineups usually have high expectations early in the season. However, it is a lineup filled with players prone for a drop-off- players that played integral roles in their team’s success last year. Their pitching staff is well below average, and lacks depth. Their bullpen appears solid on paper, but has many concerns. These team went on a late season tear, and beat up on the NL East last year, to squeak by the 88 win clip. The improved East should take wins off their 42-30 division record, and a late season collapse from the Mets will more than likely not be repeated.
7.) Reds Under 76 -115
Comment:
Here is another team with the public perception of a potent lineup carrying high expectations early in the season. However, even with this team overachieving last season, it didn’t get terribly close to a 76 win mark. They did nothing in the off season to see improvement much improvement. Their lineup is overrated, and actually slightly below average. A drop-off out of Griffey, Gonzalez and Phillips combined with the absence of Hamilton leaves questions to be answered. Their bullpen is below average even with the addition of Cordero, while their pitching staff is the worst in a weak division. This team should remain in the low 70 win total mark this year.
American League
1.) A’s Over 74 -115
Comment: In my opinion, this team is a steal at this price, even if they do trade Blanton. With big names leaving the roster in the likes of Haren, Piazza and Swisher, and not being replaced by any noticeable names in the free agent market, the market is expecting a drop-off from their 76 win mark last year. However, a healthy Harden and Dushseshser shore up a very underrated pitching staff. The return of Street and Foulke, and expected improvement from Calero give the A’s a solid bullpen to compliment their pitching staff. Their lineup is not potent, but more effective than they appear on paper. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team finished above .500
2.) Twins Over 73.5 -115
Comment: Here is another team in which the market over discounted the departures of big name players from their team. Even without Santana, the Twins possess a decent group of young pitchers that could surprise the division. Backed by the best bullpen in the AL and a lineup that has never been accustomed to carrying the team, and it is hard to imagine the Twins witnessing a drastic drop-off from their underachieving season last year. The Twins added some decent free agent signings that add some depth to a to a line that has been weak in the backend.
3.) Devil Rays Over 72 -115
Comment: Although the Devil Rays may be the “sexy” pick early on, this team still may be underrated due to having two big name teams in their division. The Devil Rays problem has always possessed such an inferior bullpen, a deficiency that has been drastically shored up this year (although they still have a below average pen). The Kazmir/Shields combo is very solid, while Garza provides a lot of upside as well. Their lineup has always flown under the radar due to their pitching woes, and this strength should pay more dividends this year. According to my early season power ratings, there is from 3 to five teams worse than the Rays, yet they are priced as if there were only two.
4.) Red Sox Under 94-115
Comment: I paid the price for constantly fading the Red Sox last year, but will have no problem doing it this year if the market presents that opportunity. It appears early on as if they will, as they are priced as if they are the best team in the league-something they no longer are this year. The high standard deviation in their pitching staff, and a bullpen that overachieved last year, should prevent their pitching from being as dominant as they were last year. Their aging lineup is still very solid, but simply overvalued. The Yankees are the best team in their division, while the Angels and Tigers are arguably better as well.
5.) White Sox Under 76 -115
Comment: At first blush, it appeared the White Sox did enough shoring up in their bullpen and adding some hitters to fill holes that were detrimental to their success last year. However, their starting pitching staff is still too weak, and should offset improvements in other facets of this team. This team has stockpiled aging players past their prime in their lineup, bullpen and starting staff, and plays in a division with four teams better than they are. The team underachieved last year at 72. However, being one year older and still having holes, 76 should be hard fro them to bypass.
6.) Mariners Under 85.5 -115
Comment: Last year, the Mariners were one of the teams I bet on the most, as they constantly traded below their intrinsic value until their prolonged winning streak got fully noticed in the market place. However, this team appears to be the most overvalued in this years future market. This team overachieved last year, and added the most hyped free agent in the marketplace in the off season. The Mariners have a top heavy rotation and a top heavy bullpen, which is usually the recipe to an overvaluation. They are no exception. Add an overrated lineup that should rank near the bottom of the league, and we start dealing with a very mediocre team.
National League
1. Braves Over 86 -105
Comment: Although on paper, the Braves have not improved much, they should accomplish a sizable jump off an 84 win total last season. In my opinion, the Braves may be the most underrated team in the NL, and a top three contender in the league. With a lot of hidden free agents in the likes of Mike Gonzalez (only 18 games last year), Texeria (only 54 games for the Braves), and replacing Soriano for Wickman in the closer role from the onset, provides a lot of hidden value on this team. The Braves possess a very underrated bullpen, and a deep pitching staff and deep lineup necessary to prevent prolong losing streaks. The market is discounting wins from this team in exchange for inflating the totals on the Mets and Phillies.
2. Brewers Over 84 -110
Comment: The Brewers have a makeup of a “sexy” team that is usually accompanied by an inflated line. However, their huge drop-off late last season prevented them from bypassing the 84 win clip they should bypass this year. Despite having a lot of hitters coming off career years, these players possess youth and upside potential that should prevent a letdown season. Sizable improvements from Bush, Weeks, and Capuano should add some wins, while key free agent signings to shore up bullpen concerns provides balance to this team. In my opinion, the Brewers are the best team in their division, yet are being overshadowed the perennial high expectation teams like the Cubs.
3.) Nats Over 71.5 -110
Comment: Believe it or not, I feel that the Nationals are better than 3 to 5 teams in the NL on paper, yet are being priced as if they were only better than two. The other good news is the notion that they are a team that plays better than they do on paper. They are a team that constantly gets swept under the rug as they lack any big name sluggers or anything remotely close to a potent line. However, that is something I have not overlooked (valuing them as the second worst lineup in the NL). What the market has not discounted aside from their gritty play not customary for a cellar team is their above average bullpen and pitching staff that should improve off of last year. 73 wins was their total last year. In my opinion, they will at least match that this year.
4. Cubs Under 87.5 -110
Comment: Rarely will you see the Cubs potential not fully quantified in the market place. This year appears to be no exception, being priced higher than all but two teams in the NL. The Cubs have a good lineup, good bullpen, and good pitching staff. However, good does not cut 88 plus wins. The sub par backend of the rotation and closer question marks is not customary for a team with such high expectations. Like most free agents from Japan, the addition of Fukodome is more hype than substance, and will not go unnoticed in the marketplace.
5. DBacks Under 86.5 -105
Comment: In my opinion, the DBacks are the 4th best team in their division, yet are being priced as if they were second to only the Dodgers. The Dodgers, Padres and Rockies are all carrying small value on their Over win expectancy, which appears to be a conglomeration of the overvalued status of the DBacks. Their pitching staff is very solid, but is very ordinary in the NL West. Webb and Haren is a solid 1-2 punch, but both should drop-off from last year’s numbers. Johnson and Davis are well past their prime, and the high standard deviation of expected returns in their pitching staff should provide for streaks good and bad. The talent pool in the NL West has increased substantially this year- making it an attractive division for an Under play or two. The Dbacks appear to be the most intriguing opportunity for such an approach.
6.) Phillies Under 88 -125
Comment: In my opinion, the Phillies are the most overvalued future in the NL this year. This is not much of a surprise, as teams possessing elite lineups usually have high expectations early in the season. However, it is a lineup filled with players prone for a drop-off- players that played integral roles in their team’s success last year. Their pitching staff is well below average, and lacks depth. Their bullpen appears solid on paper, but has many concerns. These team went on a late season tear, and beat up on the NL East last year, to squeak by the 88 win clip. The improved East should take wins off their 42-30 division record, and a late season collapse from the Mets will more than likely not be repeated.
7.) Reds Under 76 -115
Comment:
Here is another team with the public perception of a potent lineup carrying high expectations early in the season. However, even with this team overachieving last season, it didn’t get terribly close to a 76 win mark. They did nothing in the off season to see improvement much improvement. Their lineup is overrated, and actually slightly below average. A drop-off out of Griffey, Gonzalez and Phillips combined with the absence of Hamilton leaves questions to be answered. Their bullpen is below average even with the addition of Cordero, while their pitching staff is the worst in a weak division. This team should remain in the low 70 win total mark this year.
American League
1.) A’s Over 74 -115
Comment: In my opinion, this team is a steal at this price, even if they do trade Blanton. With big names leaving the roster in the likes of Haren, Piazza and Swisher, and not being replaced by any noticeable names in the free agent market, the market is expecting a drop-off from their 76 win mark last year. However, a healthy Harden and Dushseshser shore up a very underrated pitching staff. The return of Street and Foulke, and expected improvement from Calero give the A’s a solid bullpen to compliment their pitching staff. Their lineup is not potent, but more effective than they appear on paper. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team finished above .500
2.) Twins Over 73.5 -115
Comment: Here is another team in which the market over discounted the departures of big name players from their team. Even without Santana, the Twins possess a decent group of young pitchers that could surprise the division. Backed by the best bullpen in the AL and a lineup that has never been accustomed to carrying the team, and it is hard to imagine the Twins witnessing a drastic drop-off from their underachieving season last year. The Twins added some decent free agent signings that add some depth to a to a line that has been weak in the backend.
3.) Devil Rays Over 72 -115
Comment: Although the Devil Rays may be the “sexy” pick early on, this team still may be underrated due to having two big name teams in their division. The Devil Rays problem has always possessed such an inferior bullpen, a deficiency that has been drastically shored up this year (although they still have a below average pen). The Kazmir/Shields combo is very solid, while Garza provides a lot of upside as well. Their lineup has always flown under the radar due to their pitching woes, and this strength should pay more dividends this year. According to my early season power ratings, there is from 3 to five teams worse than the Rays, yet they are priced as if there were only two.
4.) Red Sox Under 94-115
Comment: I paid the price for constantly fading the Red Sox last year, but will have no problem doing it this year if the market presents that opportunity. It appears early on as if they will, as they are priced as if they are the best team in the league-something they no longer are this year. The high standard deviation in their pitching staff, and a bullpen that overachieved last year, should prevent their pitching from being as dominant as they were last year. Their aging lineup is still very solid, but simply overvalued. The Yankees are the best team in their division, while the Angels and Tigers are arguably better as well.
5.) White Sox Under 76 -115
Comment: At first blush, it appeared the White Sox did enough shoring up in their bullpen and adding some hitters to fill holes that were detrimental to their success last year. However, their starting pitching staff is still too weak, and should offset improvements in other facets of this team. This team has stockpiled aging players past their prime in their lineup, bullpen and starting staff, and plays in a division with four teams better than they are. The team underachieved last year at 72. However, being one year older and still having holes, 76 should be hard fro them to bypass.
6.) Mariners Under 85.5 -115
Comment: Last year, the Mariners were one of the teams I bet on the most, as they constantly traded below their intrinsic value until their prolonged winning streak got fully noticed in the market place. However, this team appears to be the most overvalued in this years future market. This team overachieved last year, and added the most hyped free agent in the marketplace in the off season. The Mariners have a top heavy rotation and a top heavy bullpen, which is usually the recipe to an overvaluation. They are no exception. Add an overrated lineup that should rank near the bottom of the league, and we start dealing with a very mediocre team.
