If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Posting record 17-9


I have been posting these at another forum (across the street and this is my record there) and I havve decided to post them at a few other forums in an attempt to help some others. There are some pretty good cappers here that I look at in some sports. Below is a little background on how I make my selections. By education I am a damn rocket scientist and I analyze data very well. I think this program has huge potential.

I worked with Baker from this forum on an NBA totals program sharing ideas last year. I thought it had great possibilities. I had some other ideas I wanted to try to verify but unfortunately Baker has disappeared and the results and the program went with him. So I hired someone else to start a new program and it is still a work in progress but I believe I have enough data that makes it valid. I still have some other things I want to implement into the program to see if I can continue to test my theories and improve my results. The baseline of the program is what was started with Baker and now improved and modified (at least I hope improved). So this thread is in honor of Baker and lets see if we can make the dough rise!!!

My program will give selections on every game with a couple of games just too close to call. I will typically give just one selection. I am going to track both my selections posted here along with the overall record (the overall record is just for you to watch and you can believe it or not).

Today's selections:

NJ Under 198
SA Over 181

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
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N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Two under for today, an early game and a late game

Toronto Under 208 1/2
Denver under 213 1/2

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
 
Cannon

Cannon

Banned
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Hot women much better than gambling any day.
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Sunday Take Washington Over 194

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star<!-- / message -->
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

0-1 Sunday, off to a brilliant start, NO is vey up and down on the road and they sure didn't show up.

Record 18-14

Northern Star
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Spent the day analyzing some numbers because unfortunately the program isn't set-up to track them for me. I intentionally put a bias in the program towards the under because I think the line has a bias towards favorites and overs. I looked back about a month and a half. The program picks approximately 2 unders for every over. When the program picks and over it is hitting well over 60%. The unders are coming in at about 54% (respectable but definite room for improvement). This % has come down sine the allstar break. Part of the reason is that since the allstar break over all in the NBA there have been 60 over to just 44 unders, I expect this to even out and the under % to increase.

The other thing I did was look at how the program has done predicting each team. I used to calculate a number for each game in the NBA 15-20 and bet based on a difference from my line to the betting line. I used information like offensive and defensive fg%, free throw shooting % and rebounds both offensive and defensive to determine a number. It so happened that I seemed to always lose when I bet on the Timberwolves and I noticed it. Even though their offensive and defensive fg% were better than some opponent they would lose. I came to the conclusion that it was because they were a good fg% team but they didn't get fouled much and got beat because of the number of free throws per game. There were a couple of teams it just didn't work good with. It may be the same with this program that a few of the teams are just harder to predict and i should leave them off for awhile and see how it plays out. The worst one was one I used yesterday in New Orleans. I guess I was a day late with this anaysis.

The last thing is just a random opinion on handicapping in general. Assume the total on a game is 200. There is going to be a bell type distribution of final scores around 200. Now you have a game like SA and Phoenix a few weeks ago and they scored like 160 points. If you picked the under you look like a genius and the over an idiot. Those games are going to even out where you were never close in your calculation of the predicted score. I estimate there are about 40% of the games which fall into this category. Now we have the other 60% of the games that are going to be relatively close to the predicted score. We just want to hit a decent % on those games and do the best we can by shopping for a good line. If we go 20-20 on the games you could never have predicted hopefully hit in the 37-23 range for the other 60 games, overall we would hit 57%. To do that though I think we need teams that are relatively steady in their performance day in and day out San Antonio is a team that is steady and the program is hitting 80% on games involving them. I hope the added analysis today results in a better understand of the program and increased winning %.

Three games today and a pass on all three.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
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Enfuego

Enfuego

EOG Dedicated
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Northern Star said:
Posting record 17-9


I have been posting these at another forum (across the street and this is my record there) and I havve decided to post them at a few other forums in an attempt to help some others. There are some pretty good cappers here that I look at in some sports. Below is a little background on how I make my selections. By education I am a damn rocket scientist and I analyze data very well. I think this program has huge potential.

I worked with Baker from this forum on an NBA totals program sharing ideas last year. I thought it had great possibilities. I had some other ideas I wanted to try to verify but unfortunately Baker has disappeared and the results and the program went with him. So I hired someone else to start a new program and it is still a work in progress but I believe I have enough data that makes it valid. I still have some other things I want to implement into the program to see if I can continue to test my theories and improve my results. The baseline of the program is what was started with Baker and now improved and modified (at least I hope improved). So this thread is in honor of Baker and lets see if we can make the dough rise!!!

My program will give selections on every game with a couple of games just too close to call. I will typically give just one selection. I am going to track both my selections posted here along with the overall record (the overall record is just for you to watch and you can believe it or not).

Today's selections:

NJ Under 198
SA Over 181

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

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Click to expand...

Your record shouldn't be carried over from another forum. Posted record is what you post here.
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Nothing real strong today, program singled out two unders but we know how they have been doing. 2-1 on unders yesterday and I expect it will be pretty close to 50-50 on o/u by the end of the month (from the allstar break). Let's wait and see. Only one line has gone down from the opener, which makes me believe even more we are going to start seeing some unders.


Based on yesterday's post it would look foolish to post an under.


A couple of the other categories point to an over so let's run with one today.

detroit over 194

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
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N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Overall the NBA games totals went 4-4, so o/u's 5-6 last 11. Won the over yesterday bringing the record to

19-14

Northern Star
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

NBA o/u 8-4 bringing the total to 13-10 the last 23.

Went 1-0 yesterday bring the record to 20-14

Northern Star
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Overs continue to cash in the NBA and I like unders but lets stay with the overs for now:

Dallas over 181 even without Dirk

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

All 3 games go over in the NBA last night, now 16-10 last 26.

Winner last night on Dallas Over.

Record now 21-14.



Won't break the over trend right now

Toronto Over 192 1/2


As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Nba totals continue to go over, 9-3 last night 25-13 the last 38, I still think the linemakers make a correction and it will be closer to 50/50 by the end of the month.

Won again last night

Bringing the record to 22-14


Still not bucking the over trend

Take Washington over 196


As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

NBA games go 11-4 to the over the last two days, now 36-17 the last 53 games.

I win my last selection bring the record to 23-14


Going to continue with the overs and not buck the trend:

Today take Boston Over 192



As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

In a hurry today, lost with Phil/Boston over yesterday, nice shooting Phil, 31% for the game.

Record 23-15

Selection for Tuesday Minnesota over 184

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

<TABLE class=tborder id=post5188215 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_5188215 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid">In a hurry today, won Minnesota over yesterday. Some wild line moves going on in the nba totals.


Record 24-15


Selection for Wednesday Boston over 202 1/2


As Always Good Luck


Northern Star
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N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Lost for the second time this week on Boston Over last time out.

Record now 24-16


A little more even distribution on overs and unders this week which is good because I prefer to play unders.

Take Houston Under 194 1/2

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Won last night with Houston Under


Updated Record 25-16 61%


Looks like an over night to me so lets play the first game on the schedule

Washington Over 196 1/2


As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

I gave a hint yesterday that I liked the games to go over, I played every game over yesterday except the Boston game under and had a really good night. The more data I get the more confident I am with the program. I am more than pleased with the performance.


Won the selection yesterday to bring the record to

26-16 62%


Today we are going to the last game on the schedule and taking

Sacramento Under 212


As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
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N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Top of the day to you!!


Won the selection again yesterday :houra :houra :houra to bring the record to

27-16 63%


I have lost the last two times I posted a Boston game but I am a little stubborn (combination of Irish and German) and those that know me can attest to that. In Honor of St Patrick's Day take:

Boston Over 177


As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Finally Won with Boston last night


Record now 28-16 64% :houra :houra :houra


Northern Star
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Yesterday I handicapped the games, made my plays and then had to run some errands. I was all set to put Miami over as my selection. I came back and the line had moved 5 points. I still liked the game but I thought anyone following would be playing at a significantly worse number. It seems like the games I am playing are moving 4-5 points and I know its not me moving the numbers.


On to tonight's selection:

Cleveland Under 185


As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
 
N

Northern Star

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If You Don't Play These You Must Hate $$$$$

Won the last time out with Cleveland Under

:houra :houra :houra :houra

Brings the record to 29-16 64%

Users of this site must hate $$$$$$, Only coments have been about my use of the english language. Maybe no one is even looking at this thread here?! :+clueless :+clueless :+clueless

I am going to use the Boston game again and I am just 1-2 the last three using Boston but I am stubborn.


Take Boston Over 188 1/2


As Always Good Luck

Northern Star
 
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