If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

Finance said:
Dude! That's a lot of thinking about what everyone else is thinking...Huh?
Click to expand...

I just gave reasons for taking either side. My decision comes down to my methods REGARDLESS of what anybody else says or thinks.

I'm just making excuses in case i lose thats all. :LMAO





GET THAT $$$$ :dancefool
 
B

breakerbreaker

EOG Enthusiast
Re: If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

its 1/2 time and im not really like n your chances. Im not watching the game but maybe dirk being out effects there team defence. If you ever played basketball you would understand that. The computer doesnt explain everything. Maybe there just hittin all there 1/2 quart shots. good luck.Im almost thinkin about middlin it, but maybe ill take the over 92 again. public likes the under, im sure you still do to. Hopefully u have last laugh, but then theres tommorrow. GL winner winner
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

breakerbreaker said:
its 1/2 time and im not really like n your chances. Im not watching the game but maybe dirk being out effects there team defence. If you ever played basketball you would understand that. The computer doesnt explain everything. Maybe there just hittin all there 1/2 quart shots. good luck.Im almost thinkin about middlin it, but maybe ill take the over 92 again. public likes the under, im sure you still do to. Hopefully u have last laugh, but then theres tommorrow. GL winner winner
Click to expand...



It's all stats bro. I could care less who plays (if dirk is out) :smokesmal the books will trick the sharps and the public more than 50%. This system should win or atleast keep me honest for the hole season. If dirk was playing i gaurentee this line wouldn't be where it is. I don't care if i lose this game, it's only 1 game and the circumstances were shady before i even bet it so i'm not worried.

I tired my working college capping for NBA but the lines are to sharp. I would never have plays. That's why i stick to the statistical fades. It keeps me busy.
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

1. Houston under 181 Loss

6-6 -6 units
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

3.8

1. Dallas -13.5 (fade play, no reason this line should be THIS high)
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

1. Dallas -13.5 Winner

1-0 +1 unit

7-6 54% +.4 units
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

3.10

1. LAC -2

Not a system play or nething, i just don't think Miami wins. See my other thread i started for why.
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

3.12

1. Atlanta +6 (-125) to win 5 units

This might be the end of my season if i lose this. Everyone knows how important this game is to Houston but Atlanta isn't a push off. They come into this game with just about the same record as Houston does on the road and are getting points. Last time these 2 teams met it was at Houston and Houston embarrassed them by winning by 19. Atlanta is one of those teams that could care less how they play on the road but when they play in their house they are a different animal. Expect a very close game tonight. I took the time to work out one capping method that is the most accurate I've ever done. It took almost 2 hours just to look at this game but i wanted to get the spreadsheet done for later games. Here's what i came up with.


Houston 98 (+-.78)
Atlanta 97 (+- 2.85)


6 points is just wayyy to many for a game that should come down to the final minutes.

Good luck guys! :cheers
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

I was going to upload a graph also supporting why ATL is the play but it ain't letting me....o well
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

YTD
7-8 -6 units

I've lost the last 3 games by a combined 4 points losing close to 7 units.


3.13

1. Wash -3 (-115) to win 5 units

Cleveland on a back to back coming to Washington for the game tonight. So far this season Washington has played Cleveland twice at Cleveland and lost both of those. Washington will be up for this game trying to avoid the 'sweep'. Math model shows Washington as a 3 point favorite not factoring in the back to back for Cleveland. Cleveland struggles on the road with a 16-18 road record while Washington sports a comfortable 18-14 home record. Expect those Wizards to get that dub and the cover while they're at it.

Cleveland 92
Washington 98
 
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tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

Also Butler is back in the mix tonight for Washington :+excited-
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

2. GS over 236 (-115)

(A fade play)

Joe Public method says under.

Sharp method says total 236 (UNDER).

When the sharps and the joe's like the same play, the books cash.

These plays don't happen everyday, but they've been keeping a float. I mean come on, a line this high you always have to take the under right?? Books are smart. This is the methodology behind the fades.
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: If i don't hit > 52% in this thread i will retire!!

So that's 4 losses by a combined 5 points. Un-freaking believable.
 
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