Frog's late regular season...

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OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Well, first off no reason I should not apologize for flaking out early season. For those who care, and follow me, I offer you a sincere apology, not best wishes. The most I am willing to say about it is my mind and my body both just were not in the shape I needed to be in. Normally I last much longer than that, but I got mentally and physically unwell and my mind was not close to right. I think I survived and became stronger from it, since it did not kill me.

Don't expect me on the front page much as I went fishing, or trolling and saw what was biting. I'll just spend most of my time back here and try to make up for early flake out and put a little extra coin in every's pockets. Pretty much going to roll with same ol set up. Start up with 2-4 units, no 100 unit plays, no dollar amounts. Generally speaking, I like to weigh plays, but not to the point where I have a 4-1 ratio. So if we are fortunate to do well I may slide up to 3-6. Of course I always like to start slow so we can just test the water with a small play here and there.

No bold type, but a lot less fluff. I will try to use the green identification arrow for play posts. Last year I had an outstanding A- run end of season and post season but did not post for the first time in 4 years. So I feel I can keep the string going. I'll try to post plays early, but at worst 15 minutes before tip. The Shrink was kind enough to tolerate me again so why not? Stop in, say hello if you'd like, if not just take it for what it is. No charge.

As always, Best Wishes...OF :cheers
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

(Early bird special) 76ers +6 (2 units)

Some good and some bad here, but enough good for it to be a play. Of course Boston is tough, and have been clicking again. But this spot could be a test. The 76ers have been extremely solid at home, are making a strong push towards the playoffs and have 8 straight at home. Their last lost was a 2 pointer to the Magic, I would take that here. Earlier in the season the 76ers were basically team defenseless, and the Celts made them pay. They are vastly improved in that arena, and it is one of my keys being a defensive dog also. There are some ugly numbers, I think the Celts are 27-1 outright against teams with losing records. But that is outright, and it is hard to say the 76ers are not the 5th or 6th best team in the East, and probably will end up with a winning record. No matter, I think it will be a nailbiter, A div defensive home dog, and my number has it at 1-2, so we get a healthy 4 point value. I like the way the 76ers are closing out two seasons back to back by surging. Some teams quit, some limp, and some rally. I take that rallying battle cry every time.


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

The sixers have "young legs" and are playoff bound. this is going to be a great playoff preview.
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

cassiusclay said:
The sixers have "young legs" and are playoff bound. this is going to be a great playoff preview.
Click to expand...

Awesome avatar. Yes, I think they are young, and getting rid of GM Billy King must have helped. With youth usually comes a lack of team defense for many reasons, they don't know it, where they are supposed to be, where their teammates are supposed to be, and rotations. It seems they are are on the same page now, and Cheeks has always been a good teacher/coach. They almost made the playoffs last year, but this year they could actually be a 5th or 6th seed. The most important thing to me is, they are playing very well, almost never quit, and defend their home court well. Be back tonight.

Best Wishes...OF :cheers
 
Jimmy Hoffa

Jimmy Hoffa

1
Re: Frog's late regular season...

You know how I feel about basketball...

That being said, I may just follow when you release a "Lily Pad Special".

Best of luck FROG.
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

2H 76ers +1 1/2 (2 units)


Philly couuld not have shot worse and are only down by 6. Look for shooting %'s to even out 2H.

Best Wishes...oF :cheers
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Tough 2 losses after taking that break. Philli just didn't have it today. Better luck tomorrow!!
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

that was a tough game, 15-1 run to open the game, sixers got it close but never really got in control. they showed their age, if they are lucky they will play detroit in the 1st round of the playoffs.
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Brings back memories when I was a kid and screwed up in class, punishment, erase the chalkboards and have to go outside and smack the erasers together. I would just choke on the chalk. Drawing parallels to the infamous Fezzik challenge NFL year. Just a shitload of have nots and dogs that get buried. I feel like Diogenes looking for an honest man, forever, looking for a value dog. Normally I would roll off a team and find two or three others. Barely can find one this season. Did any dogs cover last night? Denver.

As far as youth, that was sort of it, but not all of it. Started in the hole, but fought right back, that was youth in front of maybe the first sellout of the season. Big half time honorium, and still, zip. Three reasons, one losing starting pg Willie Green in 1Q, maybe early second, they need him, I thought Carney could fill his shoes, he could not, went 0-5. Played worse defensively. Next other starting backcourt mate do everything Andre Miller crashed to the floor hard early. He still finished up, but you could tell he could not move freely. Third Sam I wasn't Dalambert who was saying he deserved more minutes laid a monster egg, in the only matchup besides point I thought we had an advantage. He was 0-7 or 0-8 before the half, and finsihed with 2 lousy points. I even factored in the real Sam I am Cassel making his debut and stinking it up, which he did. But Rivers was smart enough to continue that experiment later. So the only dog playing worth anything falls apart in front of their first sellout crowd, their biggest game of the year. Not sure how far back I have to go to see a non home cover as a dog from them, but it is way back. Plus they had won 8 staight at home. I am seriously contemplating switching to totals even though they are tricky with a copious amounts of overs. But rather be there than try an pull a dog out of the tiny subset that cover. Back to the drawing chalkboard.

Best Wishes...oF :cheers

Not going to win many games when you shoot 2-17 from beyond the arc. 11.8%
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

pass today, all the totals over 200 save one, and none of these dogs look like anything but mangy mutts. I think the higher scoring has a correlated result to so many dogs just getting blownout. Rahter than chase, I will regroup, most likely wait for a better spot, not going anywhere.


Best Wishes...OF :cheers
 
I

iLoViK

EOG Addicted
Re: Frog's late regular season...

The 3pt % has nothing to do with the loss frog, you just chose a +5.5 playoff contender vs a championship contender... i d say most of the time the -5.5 will play
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Yes that same rationale went to shit last night as playoff contender Philly beat championship contender Motown outright, as a 7 1/2 point dog. Bet down from 9. The 76ers are practically the only value dog out there, in a season with few to none. In fact, I think they and Atl vs. the rockets, and you would be broke betting against the rockets, were the only 2 dogs out of 9 games to cover, another ongoing trend this season. When you have chalk teams and winning streak teams just covering night after night, it is a tough market to win on dogs. I think Utah failed as a road fave also, which has been another ongoing trend. They can't push other teams around on the road. I'll find some way to crack this market, but have been better served trying to find something besides dogs. Hopefully my time will come.

Best wishes...OF :cheers

PS 76ers shot 37.5 from the arc.
 
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O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Suns un 236 1/2 (3 units)

record -4.4 units 0-2.

Looks like highest total of the season so far. Ticked down from opener 238 1/2. Hope that does not make a difference. This number is just too high. The Suns are no longer a sure thing as run and gun with Shaq, and Warriors have been hit and miss as far as scoring because they need to hit a very % of their jumpers. The Suns were able to clown the Grizz, but that is just about routine. You need almost everything to fall into place to make an over this high. I think mid 220's is more like it, especially if game is not close at the end.

Best wishes...OF :cheers
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Unfuckin real. That is how my NBA season has gone as of late. Too jinx myself (Ticked down from opener 238 1/2. Hope that does not make a difference.) Shaq can't stay on the floor for shit, and lose on last score of game. Brutal.


Best Wishes...OF :hung
 
S

success

EOG Member
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Frog, you are a solid capper and I enjoy your writeups. However, I learned the hard way that in the long run one will not win by betting either Suns or GS under, or San Antonio and Detroit (especially at home) over. I agree that 236 was a very high number and was scared to pick the over,but without key injuries I did not and will not be picking the under either.

In tonight's game it was evident that GS was a bit tired in the second half due to playing the night before. Given sufficient rest,GS would have easily broken 120 points, whether Shaq stays on the court or not. Phoenix is still very weak defensively,and so is GS. Both teams still have the mindset that outscoring the opponent is the best "defense" . No disrespect intended, just stating my opinion. Best of luck to you!
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Yes, I need to go on a severe losing streak to prove I won't leave if I do. That's just great.

Well will have some today in fact I will try this one again.

76er +3 1/2 (3 units)

They did not win 8 in a row at home by luck. Then after that home loss, naturally that I had they go on road to beat Detroit outright, something they have not done for years, never with AI. They are still a value dog. The spurs are just not the same this season. They Need outside shooting they do not have, cheap shot Bob may fianlly be done and as a whole they look worse than they have since their first title. Either go +3 low juice or +3 1/2. Should have one or two more, including a total. Yes, that was just a bad ending, bad beat last shot of the game, Shaq played 14 minutes. Oh well, next.


Best wishes...OF :cheers
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

success said:
Frog, you are a solid capper and I enjoy your writeups. However, I learned the hard way that in the long run one will not win by betting either Suns or GS under, or San Antonio and Detroit (especially at home) over. I agree that 236 was a very high number and was scared to pick the over,but without key injuries I did not and will not be picking the under either.

In tonight's game it was evident that GS was a bit tired in the second half due to playing the night before. Given sufficient rest,GS would have easily broken 120 points, whether Shaq stays on the court or not. Phoenix is still very weak defensively,and so is GS. Both teams still have the mindset that outscoring the opponent is the best "defense" . No disrespect intended, just stating my opinion. Best of luck to you!
Click to expand...


I appreciate the feedback. I needed Shaq on the floor becuase he does slow them down. 14 minutes and constant foul trouble did not help. Actually it looked ok until that last meaningless scoring burst with 3 minutes left. The 3 pt % was not helpful either. I do agree with what you say. Normally I avoid unders with certain teams no matter what, but I got sucked in by over adjusted number, which it was, and I always go opposite of all time high, team vs team highs, etc. Peak numbers are just that. But thnaks for the input either way.

Best wishes...OF :cheers
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

TWolves +9 (3 units)

Blazers done close to nothing vs. number at home as of late. Also have a lot of low scoring games. Just looked weak vs. Sac last time out. TWolves still trying vs. tanking. I think the number is 4-5 points too high. Might get lucky with live dog 76ers and try wolf dog next.

Best Wishes OF :cheers
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Suns un 229 1/2 (3 units)

Shaq is not going to get into foul trouble every game at home asd the fans would like to see him play. Plus Kings Miller not exactly a low post center drawing fouls. Kings played well and decent defense last two. Suns go under when Shaq plays significant minutes, trying to integrate him into the offense. Kings can also be very bad offensively if the outside shots are not falling. They can shoot a very low % with guarded little chance shots. Going to try this one again as I think it should be some value if Shaq can stay on the floor. 76ers already outright, so a little bit to play with tonight.

Best Wishes...OF :cheers
 
Jimmy Hoffa

Jimmy Hoffa

1
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Toronto laid frozen eggs on the ice for me tonight.

I'm on board for these two with you Frog.

Good luck. :cheers
 
Spreadbeater

Spreadbeater

2
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Frog,

A buddy of mine told me that you were back posting....although you do not like me and we have had our differences, I always enjoy your posts, as you are the still one of the only NBA people I respect. Hope you have had a good season, I have not. Still up a little, but dwindling down, day by day. I was on the Sixers as well. Love the way they play. Always play hard, try to play some good defense. They look to run at all times, an exciting way to play. Especially with all the athletes on the squad. Love Louis Williams, he looks to have been a real steal. Anyway, best of luck the rest of the season.

P.S. Nice call on the Heat being lotto bound....think that was a vast understatement. :(
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

2-4 -5.0 units.

Sorry Jimmy, not many dogs were there, again. Especially late, TWolves right there, lost by a bucket but others just got demolished. Taking it kinda slow as it could be an ACE type of bloodbath the way I play underdogs. Was a triple away from having a + but that is the name of the game, The Suns was not that far under and the 76ers were a barca. I revisited both losers, and the very next game we got paid back. So at least I am not way off. Again, would be a lot different if dogs were covering, but they are not so can't force. At this juncture I will take a 2-1 night every night. At least you know one thing, I keep it real. Try to do better.

Best wishes...OF :cheers
 
Jimmy Hoffa

Jimmy Hoffa

1
Re: Frog's late regular season...

T'wolves stayed w/Portland and looked like a live dog at the half. Second half they rolled over and played dead. Shit happens.

71 point first quarter looked like a death blow to the under in Phoenix but tired legs preveiled? I dunno, up by 20+ late and then the white guys come in to assure the under?

It's gambling, fight on!
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Will be back here to post 2H play Motown. Goes to half in about 2 min...OF :cheers

Motown un 2H 93 1/2 (2 units) Will write up. Hornets bench totally ineffective, and they miss West bad. Especially his scoring. Don't see pace continuing if game continues the same or score goes more out of hand. A little late in the season to be chasing unwinnable games or going uptempo when playoffs are nearing. Also miracle man Jarvis was 5-5 from the arc, missed attempt #6. I think he will miss a few more. This gets less than 50 3rd Q. And lead stays double digits or increases, I like our chances.

Best Wishes...OF
 
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O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Well not in too bad of shape only down 3.0 units. 3-4 -3.0 units. Hit that stupid ass turkey, but otherwise moving in the right direction. No chasing, staying within paramenters, doing it the right way. Next. If I see anything tonight 2H I might go for something. Will try to give more lead time.

Best wishes...OF :cheers
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Going to have one Kings 2H...
Raptors +2 2H (2 units) Will try to writeup. Kings got off to unreal start shooting 70% for a brief time, but that has slowly gone down. Raptors hustling, playing better ball, getting pretty good looks. Benches heavily going to Raptors even without Bosh. Kings have had pattern this season, playing a couple of great games, then flatter than a pancake. Horribly inconsistent. Not sure how many 3 game winning streaks they have this year, but it ain't many. I'll look it up. The entire season they have 2 three game winning streaks and 1 four game winning streak. I forgot they already got crushed by Suns last night, I like it even better. FYI: Pinny was Raptors +2 +.06 then went all the way to scalp, -.05

Best Wishes...OF
 
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O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Kind of an unlucky tie there. Kings were never covering last minute, and never up by more than 8 entire 4Q. Most of the time it was a 3 or 4 pt game. But no harm done not losing a should have won. I'll try to get some more game plays.

Best wishes...OF :cheers
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Wash over 200 (3 units)

This one has conflicting short term trends vs. team vs team trends. But since both teams are not exactly who they were in history, I think the current trends are much more tell tale. Wash is on a 6 straight over run, 5 straight at home. They are scoring and giving up a total of 12 points more last 5 than season averages. Atl is about the same. Scoring about 7 a game more with Bibby running the floor. I think this game may also be close at the end, with a foul and shoot bonus. Both teams are beginning to uptempo, neither team has skewed numbers by playing lots of ot's or Suns/Warriors. If we were up this would be 4 units, but just hoping to climb out of hole first. At least I proved I would not leave after losing streak, let's keep this mini winning one going.

Best Wishes...OF :cheers
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Like I said, you just hope to get 50% on these swing games. Wash was sailing towards easy over then fell apart 4Q, with home team losing, that is not too common. Either way, another winner, three straight days and back to even. Never been happier to be even. Good thing is my personal momentum has completely shifted, so warming up and a fresh outlook and start.

Best wishes...OF :cheers

Went 53, 54, 54 then clunker 40. Yikes.
 
Hoosier Daddy

Hoosier Daddy

EOG Dedicated
Re: Frog's late regular season...

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Like I said, you just hope to get 50% on these swing games. Wash was sailing towards easy over then fell apart 4Q, with home team losing, that is not too common. Either way, another winner, three straight days and back to even. Never been happier to be even. Good thing is my personal momentum has completely shifted, so warming up and a fresh outlook and start.

Best wishes...OF :cheers

Went 53, 54, 54 then clunker 40. Yikes.
Click to expand...

I was sweating this one as well. :yikess
 
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OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: Frog's late regular season...

This was like last night's tie, looked good, almost there, shit. Actually I thought ez winner 96-92 4:39 left, everything right, close game ahead of pace. Then home team Wash goes 4 minutes no score. That is coaching. You have to get to the line at home when losing. They were settling for jumpers and those were getting blocked. Drive to the hole! In fact in the last 6:37 they missed 3 layups, had 3 jumpers blocked. Whew.

Best Wishes...oF :doh1
 
PSUONE

PSUONE

EOG Veteran
Re: Frog's late regular season...

Thanks for the pick! That was tough to watch the 4Q when I knew all I needed was 40 pts.

Keep it up bud!

:cheers
 
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