Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Top 10 Prospects - AL East
This is the first of six columns looking at each club's top 10 prospects. The AL East is covered below and will be followed by the NL East next week. Once all of the divisions have been featured, I'll turn the lists into an overall top 150.
Players with more than 50 innings pitched, 130 at-bats or 45 non-September days on an active roster are excluded from the lists below. I also don't include anyone with significant experience in Japan.
Baltimore Orioles
baltimoreorioles.com
1. Matt Wieters - C - DOB: 05/21/86 - ETA: April 2009
.283/.364/.415, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 15/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 106 AB (HWL Honolulu)
As hapless as the Orioles sometime appear, they did do one big thing right last year, drafting Wieters and Jake Arrieta despite their bonus demands and then getting them signed. Of course, it helped that they freed up money by giving away their second- and third-rounders to bring in Danys Baez and Chad Bradford. They also declined to offer LaTroy Hawkins arbitration and secure themselves a supplemental first-rounder.
Wieters, the fifth overall pick, immediately became the class of Baltimore's system after signing just minutes before the Aug. 15 deadline. He's compared to Jason Varitek because he's a switch-hitter out of Georgia Tech. During his college career, he hit .359 with 35 homers and a 108/152 K/BB ratio in 704 at-bats. He should be able to muscle at least 20 homers per years in the majors. Hitting for average might be an issue, but his patient approach will lead to solid OBPs even if he bats .250-.260. On defense, he'll be solidly above average, but probably less than a Gold Glover. He's polished enough that he could survive in the majors this year if necessary. He figures to see action by September at the latest, and Ramon Hernandez could be cleared out of the way so that he can take over as a regular in 2009.
2. Billy Rowell - 3B - DOB: 09/10/88 - ETA: 2011
.273/.335/.426, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 104/31 K/BB, 3 SB in 352 AB (A- Delmarva)
Rowell hit .328/.415/.503 in his pro debut after being drafted ninth overall in 2006, but he wasn't very effective as an 18-year-old in full-season ball. The left-handed hitter did finish with a solid .299/.358/.480 line against right-handers. The power especially was pretty impressive for someone so young. However, he hit .185/.258/.247 versus lefties. Rowell, who missed the first month and a half with a strained oblique, has at least as much to prove defensively as he does offensive, as it's questionable whether he'll last at third. Since he's error-prone and he's going to slow down as he fills out, he might fit better at first. There's an awful lot to like about his potential -- he should develop 30-homer ability -- but he needs to improve his approach, especially versus lefties.
3. Chorye Spoone - RHP - DOB: 09/16/85 - ETA: May 2009
10-9, 3.26 ERA, 108 H, 133/67 K/BB in 152 IP (A Frederick)
Spoone, who sported 90/80 K/BB ratio in 129 IP in the Sally League in 2006, was the Orioles' most improved player in 2006. What made him especially intriguing was that he got nearly three outs on the ground for every one through the air last season. Spoone throws 92-94 mph and shows a pretty good curve. He's also made progress with his changeup. Since he has more upside than Garrett Olson and a better chance or reaching it than Radhames Liz or Brandon Erbe, expect him to start drawing a lot more notice this season.
4. Garrett Olson - LHP - DOB: 10/18/83 - ETA: Now
9-7, 3.16 ERA, 95 H, 120/39 K/BB in 128 IP (AAA Norfolk)
1-3, 7.79 ERA, 42 H, 28/28 K/BB in 32 1/3 IP (Baltimore)
A steady lefty out of Cal Poly, Olson averaged three strikeouts per walk at every level until arriving in the majors last July. He was wild for the Orioles, but he still fanned 28 in 32 1/3 innings. With an 88-92 mph fastball and an above average slider, he projects as a fourth starter or maybe something a little more. The strained forearm that ended his 2007 season doesn't appear to be a major concern going forward.
5. Troy Patton - LHP - DOB: 09/03/85 - ETA: June 2008
6-6, 2.99 ERA, 96 H, 69/33 K/BB in 102 1/3 IP (AA Corpus Christi)
4-2, 4.59 ERA, 44 H, 25/11 K/BB in 49 IP (AAA Round Rock)
0-2, 3.55 ERA, 10 H, 8/4 K/BB in 12 2/3 IP (Houston)
The prize from the Miguel Tejada trade might not be. Patton remained fairly effective last season, but after fanning 303 batters in 294 1/3 innings to begin his pro career, he struck out just 94 in 151 1/3 innings. Also, including the three he allowed in the majors, he gave up 18 homers, two more than his previous career total. Patton's fastball averaged 88-91 mph, rather than the old 90-93 mph, and his curveball didn't have the same bite it did previously. Also, he missed time at the end of the season with biceps tendinitis. He'll be dropping significantly after coming in at No. 42 in the Midseason Top 150. He looks like fourth-starter material right now.
6. Nolan Reimold - OF - DOB: 10/12/83 - ETA: Sept. 2008
.233/.410/.433, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 4/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 30 AB (R GCL Orioles)
.306/.365/.565, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 47/17 K/BB, 2 SB in 186 AB (AA Bowie)
.245/.331/.453, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 33/11 K/BB, 2 SB in 108 AB (AFL Phoenix)
Reimold missed most of the first half of last season with a strained oblique, but he put up nice numbers when healthy for Double-A Bowie. He was less impressive in the Arizona Fall League. Reimold has to cut back on the strikeouts against right-handers if he's going to make it as a regular outfielder. He has 25- to 30-homer power and he's an asset defensively in a corner, so he if can hit .260, he should prove to be pretty useful. The Orioles could give him a look this summer if they eventually part with Luke Scott.
7. Radhames Liz - RHP - DOB: 10/06/83 - ETA: Aug. 2008
11-4, 3.22 ERA, 101 H, 161/70 K/BB in 137 IP (AA Bowie)
0-2, 6.93 ERA, 25 H, 24/23 K/BB in 24 2/3 IP (Baltimore)
Rushed from Double-A to the majors, Liz was able to have some success as a reliever (1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 IP) for the Orioles at the end of last season, though he was a failure as a starter (11.49 ERA in four outings). Liz has closer-type stuff in the form of a mid-90s fastball and a hard curve. The Orioles aren't giving up on him as a starter yet, but neither his changeup nor his command has come along, and they do have an obvious need at the end of games with Chris Ray set to miss the season. Liz figures to open the season in Triple-A Norfolk's rotation, but it might not be long before he gets a long look as a short reliever.
8. Brandon Erbe - RHP - DOB: 12/25/87 - ETA: 2010
6-8, 6.26 ERA, 127 H, 111/62 K/BB in 119 1/3 IP (A Frederick)
Erbe entered last year as the Orioles' top prospect after going 5-9 with a 3.22 ERA, 88 H, 133/47 K/BB in 114 2/3 IP for low Single-A Delmarva as an 18-year-old in 2006. His 2007 was a bust, but it's not like he was awful all season. He had a 3.18 ERA in April and a 2.61 ERA during June. Even while posting a 7.19 ERA after the break, he had a 60/27 K/BB in 56 1/3 innings. Part of the problem was that the Orioles wanted him relying less on his mid-90s fastball. Since he's still very young and apparently healthy, he could quickly reemerge as a top prospect this year.
9. Brandon Snyder - 1B/3B - DOB: 11/23/86 - ETA: 2011
.283/.354/.422, 11 HR, 58 RBI, 107/44 K/BB, 0 SB in 448 AB (A- Delmarva)
.378/.398/.544, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 23/5 K/BB, 0 SB in 90 AB (HWL Honolulu)
Snyder was a shortstop and a catcher in high school. The Orioles used him at the latter position after making him the 13th overall pick in the 2005 draft, but it never seemed likely that he'd stick there. A torn labrum in his shoulder repaired in 2006 ruled him out as a catcher for 2007, and the move to draft Wieters seemed to guarantee that he wouldn't be moving back in 2008. The Orioles tried Snyder as a third baseman in Hawaii with rather encouraging results. If it turns out he can't cut it there, he's probably looking a permanent move to first. A .323 average from July on at Delmarva last season looks like a sign that he's about to break through and start putting up quality numbers.
10. Jake Arrieta - RHP - DOB: 03/06/86 - ETA: June 2009
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 8 H, 16/7 K/BB in 16 IP (AFL Phoenix)
Arrieta, a TCU product, received late first-round money from the Orioles after sliding to the fifth round in the draft. His impressive debut in the Arizona Fall League came as a reliever, but he projects as a nice middle-of-the-rotation starter with his low-90s fastball and sharp slider. It's possible that he'll reach the majors before the end of 2008, though if he did, that'd probably mean things didn't go so well with guys like Hayden Penn, Olson and Patton.
Next five: RHP Jim Hoey, 1B-3B Scott Moore, RHP Pedro Beato, RHP Bob McCrory, RHP David Hernandez
Easily the deepest list the Orioles have had in the time I've been doing this. McCrory is a significantly better prospect than he was a year ago, yet he drops a spot. Hernandez, who had a 168/47 K/BB ratio in 145 1/3 innings in high-A ball, probably would have ranked ninth on last year's list. The club may have just one top-notch prospect, but it says a lot that Hoey still projects as a quality setup man and can't crack the top 10.
2007 top 15: Brandon Erbe, Billy Rowell, Nolan Reimold, Garrett Olson, Pedro Beato, Radhames Liz, Jim Hoey, Brandon Snyder, Jeff Fiorentino, Keiron Pope, Ryan Adams, Pedro Florimon, Bob McCrory, Val Majewski, Jim Johnson
2006 top 15: Nick Markakis, Hayden Penn, Adam Loewen, Nolan Reimold, Garrett Olson, Val Majewski, Brandon Snyder, Jim Johnson, Brandon Erbe, Jeff Fiorentino, Radhames Liz, Sendy Rleal, Aaron Rakers, Chris Britton, David Haehnel
2005 top 10: Nick Markakis, Adam Loewen, Hayden Penn, John Maine, Val Majewski, Jeff Fiorentino, Chris Ray, Mike Fontenot, Jacobo Sequea, Walter Young
2004 top 10: Denny Bautista, Erik Bedard, Adam Loewen, Matt Riley, John Maine, Nick Markakis, Don Levinski, Val Majewski, Daniel Cabrera, Mike Fontenot
2003 top 10: Erik Bedard, Luis Jimenez, Rich Stahl, Matt Riley, Darnell McDonald, Daniel Cabrera, Dustin Yount, Steve Bechler, Rommie Lewis, Tripper Johnson
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Boston Red Sox
1. Clay Buchholz - RHP - DOB: 08/14/84 - ETA: May 2008
7-2, 1.77 ERA, 55 H, 116/22 K/BB in 86 2/3 IP (AA Portland)
1-3, 3.96 ERA, 32 H, 55/13 K/BB in 38 2/3 IP (AAA Pawtucket)
3-1, 1.59 ERA, 14 H, 22/10 K/BB in 22 2/3 IP (Red Sox)
A 2005 supplemental first-round earned through the loss of Pedro Martinez to the Mets, Buchholz emerged as the game's top pitching prospect during the middle of last season, only to be challenged by Joba Chamberlain by year's end. Using a 91-95 mph fastball and two outstanding complimentary pitches in his curve and changeup, the Texas native was able to pitch a no-hitter versus the Orioles in just his second major league start. He was shut down in late September because of some arm fatigue, but it was nothing that was expected to linger. Assuming that the rest of Boston's starters make it through the spring healthy, Buchholz is probably going to get some additional minor league time early on. He hardly needs it, but it could serve to keep his innings total down. He's still sure to have a chance to make a big impact this year, and he could prove to be an ace two or three years from now.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury - OF - DOB: 09/11/83 - ETA: Now
.453/.518/.644, 0 HR, 13 RBI, 7/6 K/BB, 8 SB in 73 AB (AA Portland)
.298/.360/.380, 2 HR, 28 RBI, 47/32 K/BB, 33 SB in 363 AB (AAA Pawtucket)
.353/.394/.509, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 15/8 K/BB, 9 SB in 116 AB (Red Sox)
Ellsbury failed to excel in Triple-A after a red-hot start in Double-A last season, but he helped make up for that by hitting more homers during a 116-at-bat audition with the Red Sox than he had in 436 at-bats in the minors. Ellsbury already offers excellent defense and exceptional basestealing ability. He doesn't walk a whole lot, but his ability to make contact should see to it that he's at least a fair leadoff hitter. Whether he's truly the 10- or 15-homer guy he appeared to be during the final month of last year will determine if he's merely an above average regular or a future All-Star. Like Johnny Damon, he takes a completely different approach when he wants drive the ball. Most of the time, he's an inside-out guy. Since it seems to work for him, he could prove to be a better all-around hitter than the minor league numbers suggest. Either way, he should be a very good fantasy outfielder for the foreseeable future.
3. Lars Anderson - 1B - DOB: 09/25/87 - ETA: 2010
.288/.385/.443, 10 HR, 69 RBI, 112/71 K/BB, 2 SB in 458 AB (A- Greenville)
.343/.489/.486, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 9/11 K/BB, 0 SB in 35 AB (A Lancaster)
The Red Sox gambled on several big-ticket players in the 2006 draft, and while they couldn't land Matt LaPorta after selecting him in the 14th round, they did get Anderson, an 18th-rounder, to forgo his college scholarship by giving him supplemental first-round money. It looks like an outstanding investment so far. Anderson has an advanced approach and a swing that promises 30-homer power after he fills out. His glove lags behind his bat, but he'll be an adequate first baseman in time. He could prove to be a No. 3 or No. 4 hitter in a major league lineup.
4. Jed Lowrie - SS - DOB: 04/17/84 - ETA: April 2009
.297/.410/.501, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 58/65 K/BB, 5 SB in 337 AB (AA Portland)
.300/.356/.506, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 33/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 160 AB (AAA Pawtucket)
.163/.236/.245, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 14/10 K/BB, 3 SB in 98 AB (AFL Mesa)
Lowrie isn't the new Dustin Pedroia, but the two share some similarities. Both put up great numbers at top college programs (Arizona State and Stanford, respectively), yet neither was looked at as a true first-rounder coming out of school because of a perceived lack of athleticism. The Red Sox drafted both and used them at shortstop, even though neither figured to stay there for long. Lowrie has displayed surprisingly strong range at the position, but since he doesn't have a great arm, he still projects better at second. One of the best hitters in the minors over the final four months of last season, Lowrie could be a doubles machine at Fenway. He's also strong enough to hit 10 homers per year, and he knows the value of a walk. Because they have no place to play him, the Red Sox are open to trading him. However, they're not going to let a potential above average regular go cheap.
5. Michael Bowden - RHP - DOB: 09/09/86 - ETA: July 2009
2-0, 1.37 ERA, 35 H, 46/8 K/BB in 46 IP (A Lancaster)
8-6, 4.28 ERA, 105 H, 82/33 K/BB in 96 2/3 IP (AA Portland)
The Red Sox had little choice but to go to Lancaster for two years once they were dumped by their Carolina League affiliate. Worried about what kind of an effect it would have on their top pitching prospects, they had Buccholz skip the level. However, Bowden did start the year there and ended up dominating for a month and a half, even though the conditions were proving even more inhospitable than predicted. Unfortunately, Bowden didn't keep it up after reaching Double-A in May. Left-handers hit .299 against him, and his flyball tendencies started catching up to him, though he did finish 5-2 with a 3.42 ERA in nine starts after the break. Bowden throws 91-95 mph and has a swing-and-miss curveball. If he can learn to spot that pitch better and improve his changeup, he'd be a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. As is, he looks like more of a No. 3 or No. 4.
6. Justin Masterson - RHP - DOB: 03/22/85 - ETA: May 2009
8-5, 4.33 ERA, 103 H, 56/22 K/BB in 95 2/3 IP (A Lancaster)
4-3, 4.34 ERA, 49 H, 69/18 K/BB in 58 IP (AA Portland)
A 4.33 ERA isn't normally the type of figure that gets a player moving up prospect lists, but Masterson did it while spending most of the season at Single-A Lancaster. Things were so crazy there that the JetHawks scored 1,081 runs in 140 games, despite not having any top prospects in the lineup. Masterson got moved up in July and didn't see his ERA drop in a more typical offensive environment, though he did improve both his strikeout and groundball rates. On the season, he got 2 ? groundouts for every one through the air. It's his low-90s sinker that figures to be his ticket to the majors, though some still believe he'd be best utilized as a late-game reliever. He's shown signs of improving his changeup and he can get strikeouts with his slider, so he has a chance of developing into a No. 3 starter. He's more likely than Bowden to help out this year.
7. Ryan Kalish - OF - DOB: 03/28/88 - ETA: 2011
.368/.471/.540, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 12/16 K/BB, 18 SB in 87 AB (SS-A Lowell)
It was just 23 games, but Kalish turned a lot of heads in the New York-Penn League before wrist surgery shut him down in mid-July. Like Anderson, he was bought away from a scholarship in 2006, getting second-round money despite being Boston's ninth-round pick. A left-handed hitter, Kalish offers very good speed and a terrific approach. His build suggests he'll be at least a 15-homer guy by the time he's a finished product. He may not stay in center -- the Red Sox shouldn't need him there anyway -- but he has the arm for right field. His appearance in the Johan Santana rumors won't be the last time he's mentioned in trade talks.
8. Brandon Moss - OF - DOB: 09/16/83 - ETA: June 2008
.282/.363/.471, 16 HR, 78 RBI, 148/61 K/BB, 3 SB in 493 AB (AAA Pawtucket)
.280/.379/.440, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 6/4 K/BB, 0 SB in 25 AB (Boston)
After maintaining a 900 OPS through the end of June, Moss slumped at Pawtucket over the final two months of the season, something that may have cost him his chance of making the Red Sox as a reserve this year. He still had a fine season for a 23-year-old in the International League. He hangs in pretty well against left-handers and he's a fine defensive right fielder capable of handling center when absolutely necessary. The Red Sox also have him working out at first base. Odds are that he'll never be good enough to start for Boston, but since he could post a solid average and hit 20 homers per year, maybe he'll get a look as a regular elsewhere. Another fast start would help his chances of being traded.
9. Daniel Bard - RHP - DOB: 06/25/85 - ETA: 2010
3-5, 6.42 ERA, 55 H, 38/56 K/BB in 61 2/3 IP (A- Greenville)
0-2, 10.13 ERA, 21 H, 9/22 K/BB in 13 1/3 IP (A Lancaster)
0-0, 1.08 ERA, 8 H, 15/15 K/BB in 16 2/3 IP (HWL Honolulu)
Viewed as a top-10 talent in the 2006 draft, Bard slipped to No. 28 because of his bonus demands. The Red Sox got him signed too late for him to pitch in 2006 and then had him start 2007 at the ridiculous offensive environment at Lancaster. Bard was awful there and little better following his demotion, but he did bounce back as a reliever in the Hawaiian Winter League, even if he kept walking far too many guys. Bard still has one thing that can't be taught: a fastball that's topped out at 101 mph. He also possesses a slider than comes and goes as a plus pitch. Perhaps he's just a reliever, but he could prove to be a very good one.
10. Oscar Tejeda - SS - DOB: 12/26/89 - ETA: 2013
.295/.344/.399, 1 HR, 21 RBI, 27/15 K/BB, 6 SB in 173 AB (R GCL Red Sox)
.298/.347/.394, 0 HR, 12 RBI, 26/6 K/BB, 4 SB in 94 AB (SS-A Lowell)
Given a $550,000 bonus to sign out of the Dominican Republic in 2006, Tejeda is the one player in Boston's top 10 that wasn't drafted by the team. A talented defensive shortstop, Tejeda exceeded expectations by more than simply holding his own as a 17-year-old last year. It looks like he'll get a crack at full-season ball at age 18. Tejeda probably won't offer big-time power, but he hits plenty of liners and runs well. It'll be 2009 or 2010 before he's ready to put up particularly good minor league numbers.
Next five: LHP Nick Hagadone, OF Jason Place, C George Kottaras, 1B [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=778"]Chris Carter[/URL], OF Josh Reddick
Unwilling to pay the price for Johan Santana, the Red Sox still have what may be the game's deepest farm system. I think left-hander Kris Johnson would have made every other team's top 15. Craig Hansen, who had a little too much service time to qualify anyway, would have come in 17th. Two very notable 2007 draft picks, Will Middlebrooks and Ryan Dent, failed to crack the lists, as did big international signings Michael Almanzar and Che-Hsuan Lin. ? Hagadone was Boston's top pick last year and offers middle-of-the-rotation potential. ? Place, a 2006 first-rounder, remains a big-time project after striking out 160 times last season. Still, as one of the circuit's youngest players, he managed an OPS 35 points above the league average in Hawaii over the winter. ? Kottaras hit .318/.389/.582 in the second half for Triple-A Pawtucket. He probably won't be a starting catcher, but he should contribute as a role player. ? Reddick hit .306/.352/.531 as a 20-year-old in the Sally League.
2007 top 15: Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, George Kottaras, Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, Jason Place, Bryce Cox, Kris Johnson, Brandon Moss, Lars Anderson, David Murphy, Felix Doubront, Edgar Martinez, Justin Masterson
2006 top 15: Andy Marte, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Craig Hansen, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kelly Shoppach, Jed Lowrie, Manny Delcarmen, Brandon Moss, Luis Soto, Clay Buchholz, Edgar Martinez, David Murphy, Abe Alvarez
2005 top 10: Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Kelly Shoppach, Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester, Anibal Sanchez, Abe Alvarez, Luis Soto, Brandon Moss, David Murphy
2004 top 10: Kevin Youkilis, Hanley Ramirez, Kelly Shoppach, Charlie Zink, David Murphy, Jon Lester, Chad Spann, Juan Cedeno, Matt Murton, Abe Alvarez
2003 top 10: Hanley Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Freddy Sanchez, Phil Dumatrait, Kelly Shoppach, Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Tony Blanco, Josh Hancock, Jerome Gamble
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New York Yankees
1. Joba Chamberlain - RHP - DOB: 09/23/85 - ETA: Now
4-0, 2.03 ERA, 25 H, 51/11 K/BB in 40 IP (A Tampa)
4-2, 3.35 ERA, 32 H, 66/15 K/BB in 40 1/3 IP (AA Trenton)
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 18/1 K/BB in 8 IP (AAA Scranton)
2-0, 0.38 ERA, 12 H, 34/6 K/BB in 24 IP (AL New York)
Perhaps the game's most dominant reliever after being called up last season, Chamberlain is everything the Yankees could ask for in an heir to Mariano Rivera in the closer's role. Still, the rotation is likely where he belongs long-term and he's expected to spend most of 2008 starting, even if he begins the year in the bullpen in an effort to restrict his innings total. Chamberlain used a 96-100 mph heater and outstanding slider to succeed as a reliever. He'll return his curveball and changeup to the mix as a starter, though he may not need to use either a lot even if he loses three or four mph off his fastball. Just how strong those two pitches are will determine whether he develops into a legitimate ace. The curve has drawn the better reviews of the two.
2. Jose Tabata - OF - DOB: 08/12/88 - ETA: 2010
.307/.371/.392, 5 HR, 54 RBI, 70/33 K/BB, 15 SB in 411 AB (A Tampa)
The numbers Tabata has put up at such a young age relative to his competition the last two years make him look like a truly special player. However, his right wrist problems have to be taken into account. He's had issues for two years now, and it was reported by Baseball America last season that the Yankees had sent him to five different hand specialists. In August, he had the hamate bone removed. If it turns out that it was a cure-all, then Tabata should put in a nice showing as perhaps the youngest player in Double-A this season. If not, it'll be time to start getting very worried. Tabata projects as a quality defensive right fielder capable of hitting for average and displaying 20-homer, 40-double power.
3. Ian Kennedy - RHP - DOB: 12/19/84 - ETA: Now
6-1, 1.29 ERA, 39 H, 72/22 K/BB in 63 IP (A Tampa)
5-1, 2.59 ERA, 27 H, 57/17 K/BB in 48 2/3 IP (AA Trenton)
1-1, 2.08 ERA, 25 H, 34/11 K/BB in 34 2/3 IP (AAA Scranton)
1-0, 1.89 ERA, 13 H, 15/9 K/BB in 19 IP (AL New York)
Kennedy made some teams nervous when his velocity fell into the high-80s as a junior in college, but the Yankees took him 21st overall in the 2006 draft anyway and were pleasantly surprised when he resumed averaging about 90 mph with his fastball last season. As strong as his curveball and changeup are, he doesn't need to throw any harder than that to last as a middle-of-the-rotation starter in the majors. The Yankees will likely go into the season with him as their fifth starter if they decide to stick Chamberlain in the pen initially. An alternative would be for Kennedy to pitch in middle relief while waiting for a rotation spot to open up.
4. Austin Jackson - OF - DOB: 02/01/87 - ETA: 2010
.260/.336/.374, 3 HR, 25 BI, 59/24 K/BB, 19 SB in 235 AB (A- Charleston)
.345/.398/.566, 10 HR, 34 RBI, 48/22 K/BB, 13 SB in 258 AB (A Tampa)
.333/.600/.667, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 3 AB (AAA Scranton)
When Jackson was moved up to the FSL in late June despite a 710 OPS in the Sally League, it seemed to be just another case of the Yankees being way too aggressive with a prospect. However, Jackson responded to the challenge right away and upped his stock more than any other prospect in baseball during the second half of the season. Still something of a raw talent, Jackson could blossom into a 25-homer guy despite his modest build. He's continuing to learn how to play center field, but he has the speed to last there, and it looks like he'll be a pretty good OBP guy after cutting well back on the strikeouts last season. Expecting him to make Melky Cabrera expendable after this season might be pushing it a little, but there's a good chance he'll prove to be the Yankees' long-term center fielder.
5. Alan Horne - RHP - DOB: 01/05/83 - ETA: Aug. 2008
12-4, 3.11 ERA, 149 H, 165/57 K/BB in 153 1/3 IP (AA Trenton)
Horne, who declined to sign after the Indians made him a first-round pick in 2001, developed into a legitimate prospect two seasons after helping pitch Florida into the finals of the College World Series in 2005. The Tommy John survivor has always had above average stuff, but his history of inconsistency dates back to his college days. If his performance over the first four months of last season demonstrates a new level of commitment, then he should be able to make it as a third or fourth starter. If not, his 90-95 mph fastball and quality curve could still play quite well in relief. I've seen more of him than I have any other pitcher in the minors and I'm still rather skeptical.
6. Dellin Betances - RHP - DOB: 03/23/88 - ETA: 2011
1-2, 3.60 ERA, 24 H, 29/17 K/BB in 25 IP (SS-A Staten Island)
Betances, listed at 6-foot-7 and 185 pounds, is the longest shot among the Yankees' top 10 prospects to have a significant career, but his upside warrants a spot. He just won't quite repeat in the top 150 after being shut down in July with forearm tendinitis. Betances can rush it to the plate in the mid-90s, and his hard curve should prove to be an out pitch in time. Still more of a thrower than a pitcher, he's yet to polish his changeup and he is pretty wild. Odds are that he'll continue to have arm issues, but if not, he could develop into a top starter someday. The compromise scenario would have him making an impact as a reliever in a few years.
7. Jesus Montero - C - DOB: 11/28/89 - ETA: 2012
.280/.366/.421, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 18/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 107 AB (R GCL Yankees)
Montero was arguably the prize of the 2006 international class and took a $2 million signing bonus from the Yankees. His pro debut last season was postponed by a sprained ankle, but he showed plenty of offensive potential after joining the GCL Yankees on July 16. Montero figures to someday offer 30-homer power, and he already shows a fairly advanced approach. If he were a better bet to remain behind the plate, he'd draw consideration as a top-150 prospect already. However, while few question his arm, his lack of receiving and blocking skills likely will eventually force a move to first base. He could develop into a star anyway, but obviously his margin for error isn't so great at the easier position.
8. Daniel McCutchen - RHP - DOB: 09/26/82 - ETA: June 2009
11-2, 2.50 ERA, 86 H, 67/21 K/BB in 101 IP (A Tampa)
3-2, 2.41 ERA, 30 H, 36/12 K/BB in 41 IP (AA Trenton)
McCutchen, a 2006 13th-round pick, got off to a late start last season because he still had some time to go on the 50-game steroids suspension he received two months after being drafted. Originally a reliever at Oklahoma, McCutchen works in the low-90s as a starter and does a nice job against lefties because of a splitter that acts like a changeup. He has a ways to go with his curve, and there's a good chance he'll end up back in the bullpen if he remains with the Yankees. He'd have a better chance of making it as a fourth starter elsewhere.
9. Humberto Sanchez - RHP - DOB: 05/28/83 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Sanchez, the best of the three prospects the Yankees picked up from the Tigers for Gary Sheffield, missed last season following Tommy John surgery. In 2006, he went 10-6 with a 2.63 ERA, 97 H and 129/47 K/BB in 123 IP between Double- and Triple-A. With a mid-90s fastball and a sharp curve, Sanchez possesses closer potential as a reliever. He could make it as a starter, but his command would have to improve considerably. He's going to miss at least the first month of this season, so it's unlikely he'll be seen in the Bronx until after the All-Star break.
10. Jeff Marquez - RHP - DOB: 08/10/84 - ETA: Sept. 2008
15-9, 3.65 ERA, 166 H, 94/44 K/BB in 155 1/3 IP (AA Trenton)
Marquez pitched well enough to win 15 games in the Eastern League as a 22-year-old, but he didn't help his stock very much last year with both his strikeout rate and his groundball rate tumbling. In 2006, he had an 82/29 K/BB ratio in 92 1/3 IP in the FSL and got two outs on the ground for each one through the air. In 2008, he finished at a fairly standard 1.4:1. With a legitimate low-90s fastball, Marquez still has room left to develop. He'll need to improve either his curveball or his change in order to make it.
Next five: 1B Juan Miranda, RHP Jonathan Albaladejo, OF Brett Gardner, RHP Ross Ohlendorf, RHP Kevin Whelan
The Yankees' list really drops off after the top four, with Horne as the only other prospect set to make the Top 150. However, there's an awful lot of depth here. While their prospects in the 5-15 range don't match up so well, they probably have as much upside after No. 15 as any team. Andrew Brackman and Jairo Heredia are a couple of big-time arms, Austin Romine and Francisco Cervelli are interesting catcher prospects and there are several more potential setup men, with Mark Melancon leading the way.
Miranda, a Cuban defector, would rank eighth on the list if we knew for sure that he was really 24. He's probably 26 or so, but he still could contribute as a platoon first baseman. ? Albaladejo and Ohlendorf will get chances to win bullpen spots out of spring training. ... Gardner, who offers tons of speed and some on-base ability from the left side, should prove to be a better version of Jason Tyner.
2007 top 15: Phil Hughes, Jose Tabata, Humberto Sanchez, Tyler Clippard, Joba Chamberlain, Eric Duncan, Dellin Betances, Kevin Whelan, J. Brent Cox, Ross Ohlendorf, Brett Gardner, Ian Kennedy, Christian Garcia, Austin Jackson, Jeff Marquez
2006 top 15: Phil Hughes, Eric Duncan, Jose Tabata, Christian Garcia, C.J. Henry, Tyler Clippard, J. Brent Cox, Melky Cabrera, Marcos Vechionacci, Sean Henn, Austin Jackson, Matt DeSalvo, Jeff Marquez, Eduardo Nunez, Brett Gardner
2005 top 10: Eric Duncan, Robinson Cano, Marcos Vechionacci, Phil Hughes, Jesse Hoover, Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, Bronson Sardinha, Jeff Marquez, Jorge DePaula
2004 top 10: Dioner Navarro, Robinson Cano, Eric Duncan, Jorge DePaula, Rudy Guillen, Estee Harris, Drew Henson, Ramon Ramirez, Scott Proctor, Mark Phillips
2003 top 10: Juan Rivera, Drew Henson, Brandon Claussen, Jorge DePaula, Bronson Sardinha, Sean Henn, Chien-Ming Wang, Danny Borrell, Rudy Guillen, Andy Phillips
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Tampa Bay Devil Rays
1. Evan Longoria - 3B - DOB: 10/07/85 - ETA: May 2008
.307/.403/.528, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 81/51 K/BB, 4 SB in 381 AB (AA Montgomery)
.269/.398/.490, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 29/22 K/BB, 0 SB in 104 AB (AAA Durham)
.318/.380/.682, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 13/4 K/BB, 0 SB in 44 AB (AFL Scottsdale)
Longoria finished with a pedestrian 789 OPS in his first of two seasons at Long Beach St., but he started hitting in the Cape Cod League in 2005 and hasn't stopped since. He had a 1070 OPS for the Dirtbags in 2006, a 957 mark at three levels after being drafted third overall and a 921 OPS in the high minors last season. He's already on the verge of taking over as Tampa Bay's third baseman, though it's possible the team will send him down for the first month or two of the season. Longoria will be a 30-homer guy by 2009 or 2010. His defense at the hot corner isn't stellar, but he should be able to stay at the position for at least the first half of his career. Since he probably won't hit .300 except for in his best years, he could fall short of being a perennial All-Star. Still, he'll be a well above average regular for a long time.
2. David Price - LHP - DOB: 08/26/85 - ETA: Sept. 2008
The Rays haven't let bonus demands scare them away from top talents lately. They used the first overall pick in the 2007 draft to select Price and then gave him a major league deal worth $8.5 million. With a mid-90s fastball, an excellent slider and a track record of success against top collegiate talent, Price has to be regarded as one of the game's top pitching prospects, even if he hasn't thrown a pitch as a pro. He went 11-1 with a 2.63 ERA, 95 H and a 194/31 K/BB ratio in 133 1/3 innings as a junior at Vanderbilt. The Rays waited until August to sign him, as they didn't want him adding to an already heavy workload. He'll be in major league camp this spring, and while he's not being mentioned as a possibility for the Opening Day rotation, he could leap over several other notable youngsters and debut before the end of the year. He might prove to be a legitimate ace in time.
3. Wade Davis - RHP - DOB: 09/07/85 - ETA: Aug. 2008
3-0, 1.84 ERA, 54 H, 88/21 K/BB in 78 1/3 IP (A Vero Beach)
7-3, 3.15 ERA, 74 H, 81/30 K/BB in 80 IP (AA Montgomery)
Once the Rays sort through some of their less talented youngsters, Davis figures to be the first of their top pitching prospects to reach the majors this year. Possessing a fastball in the 91-94 mph range, three complimentary pitches that should all prove useful and command that's improving each year, he could peak as a No. 2 starter. He also has an ideal pitcher's build and a delivery that would seem to help his chances of staying healthy. His changeup keeps left-handers honest, and he induces a fair number of grounders, allowing him to keep his home run rate down. Davis still needs to work on pitching inside, but he isn't far off.
4. Jake McGee - LHP - DOB: 08/06/86 - ETA: May 2009
5-4, 2.93 ERA, 86 H, 145/39 K/BB in 116 2/3 IP (A Vero Beach)
3-2, 4.24 ERA, 19 H, 30/13 K/BB in 23 1/3 IP (AA Montgomery)
One of the hardest throwing lefties in the minors, McGee is capable of reaching 98 mph with his fastball and typically averages right around 93-95 mph. He also offers a true strikeout curveball, and his changeup has come pretty quickly considering where it was when he was drafted in the fifth round in 2004. He does have trouble in the command department, something that will become more apparent as he faces hitters less willing to chase the curve. Still, he possesses about as much upside as any pitcher in the minors, Price included. Hurting his ranking a bit is that he's the most likely of the Rays' three elite pitching prospects to begin experiencing arm woes.
texasrangers.com
5. Reid Brignac - SS - DOB: 01/16/86 - ETA: April 2009
.260/.328/.433, 17 HR, 81 RBI, 94/55 K/BB, 15 SB in 527 AB (AA Montgomery)
.177/.218/.248, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 16/3 K/BB, 1 SB in 113 AB (AFL Scottsdale)
Brignac secured a spot as one of the game's top shortstop prospects while hitting .321/.376/.539 between Single-A Visalia and Double-A Montgomery in 2006, but he couldn't keep it going last season. He did improve as the year went on, though that was versus diluted talent in the Southern League. In the AFL, he managed just four extra-base hits and three walks in 113 at-bats. He was even caught stealing four times in five attempts. Brignac's left-handed swing promises 25-homer potential, and he likely will show the ability to hit for average once he settles into the majors. He still might be more of a bottom-half-of-the-order guy, like Khalil ++++++, but he will have a lengthy career as a regular. Helping his case is that he's answered every question about his ability to stay at shortstop. The Rays will go with Jason Bartlett this year and then consider turning the position over to Brignac in 2009.
6. Desmond Jennings - OF - DOB: 10/30/86 - ETA: 2010
.315/.401/.465, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 53/45 K/BB, 45 SB in 387 AB (A- Columbus)
newyorkmets.com
The Rays hardly seemed to need another top-flight outfield prospect, but they got one last year, as Jennings blossomed less than a year after he was stolen in the 10th round. Now that Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes are gone, with Rocco Baldelli a possibility to follow at some point in the next year, there's actually a pretty clear path for Jennings to the majors, though he's going to need another two seasons in the minors first. Jennings has terrific speed and should develop into an excellent center fielder in time, though he doesn't have a great arm. He shows leadoff potential in the batter's box, and it looks like he's already well on his way to developing modest power. If he can handle more advanced breaking balls, he could become a star.
7. Jeff Niemann - RHP - DOB: 02/28/83 - ETA: July 2008
12-6, 3.98 ERA, 144 H, 123/46 K/BB in 131 IP (AAA Durham)
Niemann finally managed to stay healthy last year, with his only missed time coming in early August because of shoulder fatigue. Still, the 6-foot-9 right-hander didn't display the same kind of velocity that made him the fourth overall selection in the 2004 draft. He still peaks in the mid-90s with his heater, but he was often under that, and neither his curve nor his slider resulted in as many strikeouts as hoped. He's going to have to adapt in order to begin fulfilling his potential and a legitimate changeup would help. He still has above average stuff, so there will be no giving up on him anytime soon. There's a good chance he'll be one of the first starters called up by the Rays this season.
8. Jeremy Hellickson - RHP - DOB: 04/08/87 - ETA: 2010
13-3, 2.67 ERA, 87 H, 106/34 K/BB in 111 1/3 IP (A- Columbus)
minnesotatwins.com
Babied since being drafted in the fourth round in 2005, Hellickson is still under 200 innings as a pro and he averaged just 5 1/3 innings per start last year, even though he was both very effective and quite efficient in the Sally League. Hellickson is consistently in the low-90s with his fastball, and his curveball is equally effective against lefties and righties. His changeup remains his third pitch, but it should be an average major league offering by the time he's ready to join the Rays. With several talented arms ahead of him, it's probably going to be another two full years before he gets his first look.
9. Eduardo Morlan - RHP - DOB: 03/01/86 - ETA: Aug. 2008
4-3, 3.15 ERA, 18 Sv, 55 H, 92/17 K/BB in 65 2/3 IP (A+ Fort Myers)
1-0, 2.25 ERA, 0 Sv, 3 H, 7/3 K/BB in 4 IP (AA New Britain)
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 Sv, 8 H, 7/6 K/BB in 12 2/3 IP (AFL Phoenix)
The Twins were probably right not to let a relief prospect stand in the way of a Delmon Young deal, but the trade sure did look a lot better when it was Juan Rincon included. The Rays ended up with Morlan instead and could have a new closer of the future. Morlan, a full-time reliever for the first time last year, has the mid-90s fastball-slider combination to dominate out of the pen. He could be up for good as soon as the second half of this year, with a setup role possible in 2009.
10. Joel Guzman - 3B/OF - DOB: 11/24/84 - ETA: June 2009
.242/.381/.408, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 117/23 K/BB, 9 SB in 414 AB (AAA Durham)
.243/.282/.378, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 10/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 37 AB (Tampa Bay)
cincinattireds.com
Guzman's stock has slipped considerably, but there's still way too much potential here to drop him from the top 10, even in such a strong organization. Guzman has the strength to someday reach 30 or 40 homers in a major league season, and he did manage to post lines of .287/.351/.475 as a 20-year-old in Double-A in 2005 and .297/.353/.461 in 317 AB for Triple-A Las Vegas in 2006. He's been a bust since arriving in Tampa Bay in the Julio Lugo deal, but he's still playing with guys typically quite a bit older than he is. Maybe the breakthrough will never come, but I think he has a reasonable chance of at least matching [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2353"]Jose Guillen[/URL]'s career, hopefully without cheating to get there.
Next five: C John Jaso, RHP Chris Mason, LHP Glenn Gibson, OF Ryan Royster, OF Fernando Perez
Jaso is going to struggle to stick behind the plate in the majors, but he might have the bat to make it as a DH. ? Mason can't crack the top 10 despite a 2.57 ERA and a 136/44 K/BB ratio in Double-A. He's a possible No. 4 starter. ? Knocked off the list by the acquisition of Gibson for Elijah Dukes was another outfielder, Justin Ruggiano. Of the three outfielders, Royster offers the most upside. Ruggiano is ready to help now, but he'll probably be a bench guy. Perez possesses on-base skills, but not much power and he's not a very good basestealer despite excellent speed.
atlantabraves.com
2007 top 15: Delmon Young, Evan Longoria, Reid Brignac, Jeff Niemann, Elijah Dukes, Joel Guzman, Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Wes Bankston, Jason Hammel, Andrew Sonnanstine, Juan Salas, Mitch Talbot, Jeremy Hellickson, Chuck Tiffany
2006 top 10: Delmon Young, Wes Bankston, Chuck Tiffany, Jeff Niemann, Elijah Dukes, Jason Hammel, Reid Brignac, Andrew Sonnanstine, John Jaso, Wade Townsend, Wade Davis, Chris Mason, Chris Seddon, Shawn Riggans, Jake McGee
2005 top 10: Delmon Young, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Niemann, Jonny Gomes, Wes Bankston, Chad Orvella, Joey Gathright, Reid Brignac, Elijah Dukes, Jason Hammel
2004 top 10: B.J. Upton, Delmon Young, Jonny Gomes, Josh Hamilton, Joey Gathright, Jon Switzer, Chad Gaudin, Doug Waechter, James Houser, Pete Laforest
2003 top 10: Rocco Baldelli, Josh Hamilton, Dewon Brazelton, B.J. Upton, Jonny Gomes, Seth McClung, Antonio Perez, Jason Pridie, Jon Switzer, Wes Bankston
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Toronto Blue Jays
1. Travis Snider - OF - DOB: 02/02/88 - ETA: Aug. 2009
.313/.377/.525, 16 HR, 93 RBI, 129/49 K/BB, 3 SB in 457 AB (A- Lansing)
.316/.404/.541, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 29/15 K/BB, 1 SB in 98 AB (AFL Scottsdale)
One of the most talented hitters in the minors and the Jays' only top-100 prospect, Snider has the potential to be the one star drafted in the first round by Toronto this decade. The team found Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios and Shannon Stewart in the first round in 90s, but the best they have to show for the 2000s so far is Aaron Hill, with Gabe Gross a distant second. A stocky left-handed hitter, Snider would be compared to Matt Stairs even if the two weren't in the same organization. It looks like he'll last in the outfield for at least a few years, and he figures to surpass Stairs offensively because of his ability to hit for average. He might advance quickly enough to reach the majors as a 21-year-old in 2009.
2. Brett Cecil - LHP - DOB: 07/02/86 - ETA: July 2009
1-0, 1.27 ERA, 36 H, 56/11 K/BB in 49 2/3 IP (SS-A Auburn)
If not for their five first- and supplemental first-round picks last year, the Jays would have the weakest prospect list of any organization. Cecil, a Maryland product, was their third selection, going 38th overall. Though he closed in college, the Jays plan on developing him as a starter, and his 88-91 mph fastball and very good slider should allow him to succeed in the middle of the rotation. He does need to perfect a changeup before he'll be ready to move quickly. That he has less mileage on his arm than most may pay off in the end.
3. Kevin Ahrens - SS - DOB: 04/26/89 - ETA: 2012
.230/.339/.321, 3 HR, 21 RBI, 47/25 K/BB, 3 SB in 165 AB (R GCL Blue Jays)
Ahrens, a switch-hitting infielder, looked like something of a reach with the 16th overall selection in the 2007 draft. He's still got a long way to go as a left-handed hitter, and he probably doesn't have the range to stick at shortstop. There is quite a bit of upside here, and since that's something lacking throughout Toronto's system, it's hard to blame GM J.P. Ricciardi for gambling. It's going to take several years, but he could develop into a 25-homer third baseman.
4. J.P. Arencibia - C - DOB: 01/05/86 - ETA: 2010
.254/.309/.377, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 56/14 K/BB, 0 SB in 228 AB (SS-A Auburn)
Arencibia was Toronto's second first-round pick after hitting .330/.450/.545 in his final year at Tennessee. Serious doubts about his ability to remain behind the plate resulted in him dropping to the 21st pick. He should be a 20-homer guy by the time he's ready for the majors, and he's athletic enough to become a quality defensive first baseman if he needs to make the switch. Ideally, he's show enough to remain a catcher and develop into a Mike Lieberthal-type player.
5. Yohermyn Chavez - RHP - DOB: 01/26/89 - ETA: 2012
.301/.389/.494, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 50/20 K/BB, 7 SB in 176 AB (R GCL Blue Jays)
The Jays didn't push Chavez at all in his second year in the U.S., holidng him out of action until June and then sending him to the GCL rather than the New York-Penn League. He responded with nice numbers for an 18-year-old, though he did strike out too much. Chavez offers considerable power potential, and he could turn into an offensive force if he gets himself out less frequently. He won't offer a lot of defensive value as a probable left fielder and he doesn't have great speed, so his bat will have to carry him.
6. David Purcey - LHP - DOB: 04/22/82 - Sept. 2008
3-5, 5.37 ERA, 67 H, 55/16 K/BB in 62 IP (AA New Hampshire)
1-2, 1.23 ERA, 13 H, 25/9 K/BB in 22 IP (AFL Scottsdale)
Even on a list this weak, Purcey was in danger of failing to make the cut until turning in one of the best performances of any pitcher in the Arizona Fall League. A cyst in his left arm limited him to 11 rather unimpressive starts during the regular season last year. The 2004 first-round pick has posted ERAs over 5.00 at each of his last three minor league stops. The Jays knew he was more of a project than most college pitchers when they drafted him, but they were hoping his command would come along. It finally showed signs last year. Purcey has always had plus stuff. He tops out in the mid-90s and gets strikeouts with his curve, so he should at least have a career as a reliever if he remains healthy.
7. Robinzon Diaz - C - DOB: 09/19/83 - ETA: April 2009
.316/.344/.409, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 16/11 K/BB, 5 SB in 301 AB (AA New Hampshire)
.338/.358/.431, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 6/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 65 AB (AAA Syracuse)
Diaz is a solid defensive catcher with a career average of .306 in the minors, but he'd still be in the 10-15 range in most organizations. Strictly backup material, Diaz puts a lot of pitches in play, but shows little power and walks twice a month. On defense, he offers an average arm and plate-blocking skills. The package should make him a long-term backup, though it may be tough for him to break in with the Jays unless the team decides Curtis Thigpen needs to be moved. They'll have a couple of openings in 2009, but it's hard to imagine them pairing the youngsters.
8. Justin Jackson - SS - DOB: 12/11/88 - ETA: 2013
.187/.274/.241, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 44/20 K/BB, 7 SB in 166 AB (R GCL Blue Jays)
Jackson, one of the Jays' supplemental first-round picks in 2007, displays a potentially excellent glove at shortstop and little else right now. He's big enough that he should develop 10- to 15-homer power someday, and he did draw a fair amount of walks while hitting .187 in the GCL. He's certainly not someone fantasy leaguers need worry about anytime soon.
9. Ricky Romero - LHP - DOB: 11/06/84 - ETA: 2010
0-0, 3.86 ERA, 4 H, 2/1 K/BB in 4 2/3 IP (A+ Dunedin)
3-6, 4.89 ERA, 98 H, 80/51 K/BB in 88 1/3 IP (AA New Hampshire)
1-1, 3.86 ERA, 8 H, 12/5 K/BB in 11 2/3 IP (AFL Scottsdale)
Optimistic they were getting a polished left-hander capable of contributing in the near future, the Jays drafted Romero sixth overall in 2005, taking him one spot ahead of where Troy Tulowitzki went. He's battled elbow problems ever since, though he's never undergone surgery. That might yet be an option if he continues to struggle this year. When he's going well, Romero throws in the high-80s and both his curve and change look like major league pitchers. Still, he's a long shot now to develop into a fourth or fifth starter.
10. Trystan Magnuson - LHP - DOB: 06/06/85 - ETA: Aug. 2009
According to Wikipedia, Magnuson had scholarship offers from Louisville for Engineering and from Kentucky to play the violin. He chose the former, walked on to the baseball team and went 56th overall to the Blue Jays in the 2007 draft after posting a 1.09 ERA and a 58/10 K/BB ratio in 58 innings as a senior. A 6-foot-7 lefty with a low-90s fastball and a quality slider, he projects as a setup man.
Next five: 2B John Tolisano, LHP Davis Romero, C Brian Jeroloman, LHP Marc Rzepczynski, RHP Kyle Ginley
Ineligible because of service time: Curtis Thigpen, Brian Wolfe
Thigpen would have ranked fifth, while Wolfe would have slipped into the 10-15 range. ? Tolisano was the Jays' sixth pick last year and could prove quite interesting if he can last at second base. ? Romero ranked seventh a year ago, but he missed the season with a torn labrum and might not return at 100 percent. ? Jeroloman, a University of Florida product, offers quality defense, a left-handed bat and a ton of patience at the plate (57/85 K/BB ratio in 290 AB for Single-A Dunedin), making him a potential backup. If only he possessed even modest power, inserting him into the top 10 would have been an easy call.
2007 top 15: Adam Lind, Travis Snider, Ricky Romero, Curtis Thigpen, David Purcey, Francisco Rosario, Davis Romero, Ryan Patterson, Kyle Yates, Josh Banks, Sergio Santos, Jesse Litsch, Brandon Magee, Chip Cannon, Jamie Vermilyea
2006 top 15: Dustin McGowan, Ricky Romero, David Purcey, Sergio Santos, Josh Banks, Adam Lind, Casey Janssen, Francisco Rosario, Guillermo Quiroz, Vince Perkins, Ryan Patterson, Curtis Thigpen, Davis Romero, Ryan Roberts, Chip Cannon
2005 top 10: Dustin McGowan, Brandon League, Guillermo Quiroz, Aaron Hill, Gabe Gross, Josh Banks, Francisco Rosario, David Purcey, Russ Adams, Vito Chiaravalloti
2004 top 10: Alex Rios, Dustin McGowan, Gabe Gross, Jason Arnold, Guillermo Quiroz, Vince Perkins, Brandon League, Dave Bush, John-Ford Griffin, Aaron Hill
2003 top 10: Gabe Gross, Jayson Werth, Dustin McGowan, Kevin Cash, Russ Adams, Francisco Rosario, Vinnie Chulk, Dominic Rich, Mike Smith, Mark Hendrickson
This is the first of six columns looking at each club's top 10 prospects. The AL East is covered below and will be followed by the NL East next week. Once all of the divisions have been featured, I'll turn the lists into an overall top 150.
Players with more than 50 innings pitched, 130 at-bats or 45 non-September days on an active roster are excluded from the lists below. I also don't include anyone with significant experience in Japan.
Baltimore Orioles
baltimoreorioles.com
1. Matt Wieters - C - DOB: 05/21/86 - ETA: April 2009
.283/.364/.415, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 15/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 106 AB (HWL Honolulu)
As hapless as the Orioles sometime appear, they did do one big thing right last year, drafting Wieters and Jake Arrieta despite their bonus demands and then getting them signed. Of course, it helped that they freed up money by giving away their second- and third-rounders to bring in Danys Baez and Chad Bradford. They also declined to offer LaTroy Hawkins arbitration and secure themselves a supplemental first-rounder.
Wieters, the fifth overall pick, immediately became the class of Baltimore's system after signing just minutes before the Aug. 15 deadline. He's compared to Jason Varitek because he's a switch-hitter out of Georgia Tech. During his college career, he hit .359 with 35 homers and a 108/152 K/BB ratio in 704 at-bats. He should be able to muscle at least 20 homers per years in the majors. Hitting for average might be an issue, but his patient approach will lead to solid OBPs even if he bats .250-.260. On defense, he'll be solidly above average, but probably less than a Gold Glover. He's polished enough that he could survive in the majors this year if necessary. He figures to see action by September at the latest, and Ramon Hernandez could be cleared out of the way so that he can take over as a regular in 2009.
2. Billy Rowell - 3B - DOB: 09/10/88 - ETA: 2011
.273/.335/.426, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 104/31 K/BB, 3 SB in 352 AB (A- Delmarva)
Rowell hit .328/.415/.503 in his pro debut after being drafted ninth overall in 2006, but he wasn't very effective as an 18-year-old in full-season ball. The left-handed hitter did finish with a solid .299/.358/.480 line against right-handers. The power especially was pretty impressive for someone so young. However, he hit .185/.258/.247 versus lefties. Rowell, who missed the first month and a half with a strained oblique, has at least as much to prove defensively as he does offensive, as it's questionable whether he'll last at third. Since he's error-prone and he's going to slow down as he fills out, he might fit better at first. There's an awful lot to like about his potential -- he should develop 30-homer ability -- but he needs to improve his approach, especially versus lefties.
3. Chorye Spoone - RHP - DOB: 09/16/85 - ETA: May 2009
10-9, 3.26 ERA, 108 H, 133/67 K/BB in 152 IP (A Frederick)
Spoone, who sported 90/80 K/BB ratio in 129 IP in the Sally League in 2006, was the Orioles' most improved player in 2006. What made him especially intriguing was that he got nearly three outs on the ground for every one through the air last season. Spoone throws 92-94 mph and shows a pretty good curve. He's also made progress with his changeup. Since he has more upside than Garrett Olson and a better chance or reaching it than Radhames Liz or Brandon Erbe, expect him to start drawing a lot more notice this season.
4. Garrett Olson - LHP - DOB: 10/18/83 - ETA: Now
9-7, 3.16 ERA, 95 H, 120/39 K/BB in 128 IP (AAA Norfolk)
1-3, 7.79 ERA, 42 H, 28/28 K/BB in 32 1/3 IP (Baltimore)
A steady lefty out of Cal Poly, Olson averaged three strikeouts per walk at every level until arriving in the majors last July. He was wild for the Orioles, but he still fanned 28 in 32 1/3 innings. With an 88-92 mph fastball and an above average slider, he projects as a fourth starter or maybe something a little more. The strained forearm that ended his 2007 season doesn't appear to be a major concern going forward.
5. Troy Patton - LHP - DOB: 09/03/85 - ETA: June 2008
6-6, 2.99 ERA, 96 H, 69/33 K/BB in 102 1/3 IP (AA Corpus Christi)
4-2, 4.59 ERA, 44 H, 25/11 K/BB in 49 IP (AAA Round Rock)
0-2, 3.55 ERA, 10 H, 8/4 K/BB in 12 2/3 IP (Houston)
The prize from the Miguel Tejada trade might not be. Patton remained fairly effective last season, but after fanning 303 batters in 294 1/3 innings to begin his pro career, he struck out just 94 in 151 1/3 innings. Also, including the three he allowed in the majors, he gave up 18 homers, two more than his previous career total. Patton's fastball averaged 88-91 mph, rather than the old 90-93 mph, and his curveball didn't have the same bite it did previously. Also, he missed time at the end of the season with biceps tendinitis. He'll be dropping significantly after coming in at No. 42 in the Midseason Top 150. He looks like fourth-starter material right now.
6. Nolan Reimold - OF - DOB: 10/12/83 - ETA: Sept. 2008
.233/.410/.433, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 4/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 30 AB (R GCL Orioles)
.306/.365/.565, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 47/17 K/BB, 2 SB in 186 AB (AA Bowie)
.245/.331/.453, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 33/11 K/BB, 2 SB in 108 AB (AFL Phoenix)
Reimold missed most of the first half of last season with a strained oblique, but he put up nice numbers when healthy for Double-A Bowie. He was less impressive in the Arizona Fall League. Reimold has to cut back on the strikeouts against right-handers if he's going to make it as a regular outfielder. He has 25- to 30-homer power and he's an asset defensively in a corner, so he if can hit .260, he should prove to be pretty useful. The Orioles could give him a look this summer if they eventually part with Luke Scott.
7. Radhames Liz - RHP - DOB: 10/06/83 - ETA: Aug. 2008
11-4, 3.22 ERA, 101 H, 161/70 K/BB in 137 IP (AA Bowie)
0-2, 6.93 ERA, 25 H, 24/23 K/BB in 24 2/3 IP (Baltimore)
Rushed from Double-A to the majors, Liz was able to have some success as a reliever (1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 IP) for the Orioles at the end of last season, though he was a failure as a starter (11.49 ERA in four outings). Liz has closer-type stuff in the form of a mid-90s fastball and a hard curve. The Orioles aren't giving up on him as a starter yet, but neither his changeup nor his command has come along, and they do have an obvious need at the end of games with Chris Ray set to miss the season. Liz figures to open the season in Triple-A Norfolk's rotation, but it might not be long before he gets a long look as a short reliever.
8. Brandon Erbe - RHP - DOB: 12/25/87 - ETA: 2010
6-8, 6.26 ERA, 127 H, 111/62 K/BB in 119 1/3 IP (A Frederick)
Erbe entered last year as the Orioles' top prospect after going 5-9 with a 3.22 ERA, 88 H, 133/47 K/BB in 114 2/3 IP for low Single-A Delmarva as an 18-year-old in 2006. His 2007 was a bust, but it's not like he was awful all season. He had a 3.18 ERA in April and a 2.61 ERA during June. Even while posting a 7.19 ERA after the break, he had a 60/27 K/BB in 56 1/3 innings. Part of the problem was that the Orioles wanted him relying less on his mid-90s fastball. Since he's still very young and apparently healthy, he could quickly reemerge as a top prospect this year.
9. Brandon Snyder - 1B/3B - DOB: 11/23/86 - ETA: 2011
.283/.354/.422, 11 HR, 58 RBI, 107/44 K/BB, 0 SB in 448 AB (A- Delmarva)
.378/.398/.544, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 23/5 K/BB, 0 SB in 90 AB (HWL Honolulu)
Snyder was a shortstop and a catcher in high school. The Orioles used him at the latter position after making him the 13th overall pick in the 2005 draft, but it never seemed likely that he'd stick there. A torn labrum in his shoulder repaired in 2006 ruled him out as a catcher for 2007, and the move to draft Wieters seemed to guarantee that he wouldn't be moving back in 2008. The Orioles tried Snyder as a third baseman in Hawaii with rather encouraging results. If it turns out he can't cut it there, he's probably looking a permanent move to first. A .323 average from July on at Delmarva last season looks like a sign that he's about to break through and start putting up quality numbers.
10. Jake Arrieta - RHP - DOB: 03/06/86 - ETA: June 2009
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 8 H, 16/7 K/BB in 16 IP (AFL Phoenix)
Arrieta, a TCU product, received late first-round money from the Orioles after sliding to the fifth round in the draft. His impressive debut in the Arizona Fall League came as a reliever, but he projects as a nice middle-of-the-rotation starter with his low-90s fastball and sharp slider. It's possible that he'll reach the majors before the end of 2008, though if he did, that'd probably mean things didn't go so well with guys like Hayden Penn, Olson and Patton.
Next five: RHP Jim Hoey, 1B-3B Scott Moore, RHP Pedro Beato, RHP Bob McCrory, RHP David Hernandez
Easily the deepest list the Orioles have had in the time I've been doing this. McCrory is a significantly better prospect than he was a year ago, yet he drops a spot. Hernandez, who had a 168/47 K/BB ratio in 145 1/3 innings in high-A ball, probably would have ranked ninth on last year's list. The club may have just one top-notch prospect, but it says a lot that Hoey still projects as a quality setup man and can't crack the top 10.
2007 top 15: Brandon Erbe, Billy Rowell, Nolan Reimold, Garrett Olson, Pedro Beato, Radhames Liz, Jim Hoey, Brandon Snyder, Jeff Fiorentino, Keiron Pope, Ryan Adams, Pedro Florimon, Bob McCrory, Val Majewski, Jim Johnson
2006 top 15: Nick Markakis, Hayden Penn, Adam Loewen, Nolan Reimold, Garrett Olson, Val Majewski, Brandon Snyder, Jim Johnson, Brandon Erbe, Jeff Fiorentino, Radhames Liz, Sendy Rleal, Aaron Rakers, Chris Britton, David Haehnel
2005 top 10: Nick Markakis, Adam Loewen, Hayden Penn, John Maine, Val Majewski, Jeff Fiorentino, Chris Ray, Mike Fontenot, Jacobo Sequea, Walter Young
2004 top 10: Denny Bautista, Erik Bedard, Adam Loewen, Matt Riley, John Maine, Nick Markakis, Don Levinski, Val Majewski, Daniel Cabrera, Mike Fontenot
2003 top 10: Erik Bedard, Luis Jimenez, Rich Stahl, Matt Riley, Darnell McDonald, Daniel Cabrera, Dustin Yount, Steve Bechler, Rommie Lewis, Tripper Johnson
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Boston Red Sox
1. Clay Buchholz - RHP - DOB: 08/14/84 - ETA: May 2008
7-2, 1.77 ERA, 55 H, 116/22 K/BB in 86 2/3 IP (AA Portland)
1-3, 3.96 ERA, 32 H, 55/13 K/BB in 38 2/3 IP (AAA Pawtucket)
3-1, 1.59 ERA, 14 H, 22/10 K/BB in 22 2/3 IP (Red Sox)
A 2005 supplemental first-round earned through the loss of Pedro Martinez to the Mets, Buchholz emerged as the game's top pitching prospect during the middle of last season, only to be challenged by Joba Chamberlain by year's end. Using a 91-95 mph fastball and two outstanding complimentary pitches in his curve and changeup, the Texas native was able to pitch a no-hitter versus the Orioles in just his second major league start. He was shut down in late September because of some arm fatigue, but it was nothing that was expected to linger. Assuming that the rest of Boston's starters make it through the spring healthy, Buchholz is probably going to get some additional minor league time early on. He hardly needs it, but it could serve to keep his innings total down. He's still sure to have a chance to make a big impact this year, and he could prove to be an ace two or three years from now.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury - OF - DOB: 09/11/83 - ETA: Now
.453/.518/.644, 0 HR, 13 RBI, 7/6 K/BB, 8 SB in 73 AB (AA Portland)
.298/.360/.380, 2 HR, 28 RBI, 47/32 K/BB, 33 SB in 363 AB (AAA Pawtucket)
.353/.394/.509, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 15/8 K/BB, 9 SB in 116 AB (Red Sox)
Ellsbury failed to excel in Triple-A after a red-hot start in Double-A last season, but he helped make up for that by hitting more homers during a 116-at-bat audition with the Red Sox than he had in 436 at-bats in the minors. Ellsbury already offers excellent defense and exceptional basestealing ability. He doesn't walk a whole lot, but his ability to make contact should see to it that he's at least a fair leadoff hitter. Whether he's truly the 10- or 15-homer guy he appeared to be during the final month of last year will determine if he's merely an above average regular or a future All-Star. Like Johnny Damon, he takes a completely different approach when he wants drive the ball. Most of the time, he's an inside-out guy. Since it seems to work for him, he could prove to be a better all-around hitter than the minor league numbers suggest. Either way, he should be a very good fantasy outfielder for the foreseeable future.
3. Lars Anderson - 1B - DOB: 09/25/87 - ETA: 2010
.288/.385/.443, 10 HR, 69 RBI, 112/71 K/BB, 2 SB in 458 AB (A- Greenville)
.343/.489/.486, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 9/11 K/BB, 0 SB in 35 AB (A Lancaster)
The Red Sox gambled on several big-ticket players in the 2006 draft, and while they couldn't land Matt LaPorta after selecting him in the 14th round, they did get Anderson, an 18th-rounder, to forgo his college scholarship by giving him supplemental first-round money. It looks like an outstanding investment so far. Anderson has an advanced approach and a swing that promises 30-homer power after he fills out. His glove lags behind his bat, but he'll be an adequate first baseman in time. He could prove to be a No. 3 or No. 4 hitter in a major league lineup.
4. Jed Lowrie - SS - DOB: 04/17/84 - ETA: April 2009
.297/.410/.501, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 58/65 K/BB, 5 SB in 337 AB (AA Portland)
.300/.356/.506, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 33/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 160 AB (AAA Pawtucket)
.163/.236/.245, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 14/10 K/BB, 3 SB in 98 AB (AFL Mesa)
Lowrie isn't the new Dustin Pedroia, but the two share some similarities. Both put up great numbers at top college programs (Arizona State and Stanford, respectively), yet neither was looked at as a true first-rounder coming out of school because of a perceived lack of athleticism. The Red Sox drafted both and used them at shortstop, even though neither figured to stay there for long. Lowrie has displayed surprisingly strong range at the position, but since he doesn't have a great arm, he still projects better at second. One of the best hitters in the minors over the final four months of last season, Lowrie could be a doubles machine at Fenway. He's also strong enough to hit 10 homers per year, and he knows the value of a walk. Because they have no place to play him, the Red Sox are open to trading him. However, they're not going to let a potential above average regular go cheap.
5. Michael Bowden - RHP - DOB: 09/09/86 - ETA: July 2009
2-0, 1.37 ERA, 35 H, 46/8 K/BB in 46 IP (A Lancaster)
8-6, 4.28 ERA, 105 H, 82/33 K/BB in 96 2/3 IP (AA Portland)
The Red Sox had little choice but to go to Lancaster for two years once they were dumped by their Carolina League affiliate. Worried about what kind of an effect it would have on their top pitching prospects, they had Buccholz skip the level. However, Bowden did start the year there and ended up dominating for a month and a half, even though the conditions were proving even more inhospitable than predicted. Unfortunately, Bowden didn't keep it up after reaching Double-A in May. Left-handers hit .299 against him, and his flyball tendencies started catching up to him, though he did finish 5-2 with a 3.42 ERA in nine starts after the break. Bowden throws 91-95 mph and has a swing-and-miss curveball. If he can learn to spot that pitch better and improve his changeup, he'd be a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. As is, he looks like more of a No. 3 or No. 4.
6. Justin Masterson - RHP - DOB: 03/22/85 - ETA: May 2009
8-5, 4.33 ERA, 103 H, 56/22 K/BB in 95 2/3 IP (A Lancaster)
4-3, 4.34 ERA, 49 H, 69/18 K/BB in 58 IP (AA Portland)
A 4.33 ERA isn't normally the type of figure that gets a player moving up prospect lists, but Masterson did it while spending most of the season at Single-A Lancaster. Things were so crazy there that the JetHawks scored 1,081 runs in 140 games, despite not having any top prospects in the lineup. Masterson got moved up in July and didn't see his ERA drop in a more typical offensive environment, though he did improve both his strikeout and groundball rates. On the season, he got 2 ? groundouts for every one through the air. It's his low-90s sinker that figures to be his ticket to the majors, though some still believe he'd be best utilized as a late-game reliever. He's shown signs of improving his changeup and he can get strikeouts with his slider, so he has a chance of developing into a No. 3 starter. He's more likely than Bowden to help out this year.
7. Ryan Kalish - OF - DOB: 03/28/88 - ETA: 2011
.368/.471/.540, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 12/16 K/BB, 18 SB in 87 AB (SS-A Lowell)
It was just 23 games, but Kalish turned a lot of heads in the New York-Penn League before wrist surgery shut him down in mid-July. Like Anderson, he was bought away from a scholarship in 2006, getting second-round money despite being Boston's ninth-round pick. A left-handed hitter, Kalish offers very good speed and a terrific approach. His build suggests he'll be at least a 15-homer guy by the time he's a finished product. He may not stay in center -- the Red Sox shouldn't need him there anyway -- but he has the arm for right field. His appearance in the Johan Santana rumors won't be the last time he's mentioned in trade talks.
8. Brandon Moss - OF - DOB: 09/16/83 - ETA: June 2008
.282/.363/.471, 16 HR, 78 RBI, 148/61 K/BB, 3 SB in 493 AB (AAA Pawtucket)
.280/.379/.440, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 6/4 K/BB, 0 SB in 25 AB (Boston)
After maintaining a 900 OPS through the end of June, Moss slumped at Pawtucket over the final two months of the season, something that may have cost him his chance of making the Red Sox as a reserve this year. He still had a fine season for a 23-year-old in the International League. He hangs in pretty well against left-handers and he's a fine defensive right fielder capable of handling center when absolutely necessary. The Red Sox also have him working out at first base. Odds are that he'll never be good enough to start for Boston, but since he could post a solid average and hit 20 homers per year, maybe he'll get a look as a regular elsewhere. Another fast start would help his chances of being traded.
9. Daniel Bard - RHP - DOB: 06/25/85 - ETA: 2010
3-5, 6.42 ERA, 55 H, 38/56 K/BB in 61 2/3 IP (A- Greenville)
0-2, 10.13 ERA, 21 H, 9/22 K/BB in 13 1/3 IP (A Lancaster)
0-0, 1.08 ERA, 8 H, 15/15 K/BB in 16 2/3 IP (HWL Honolulu)
Viewed as a top-10 talent in the 2006 draft, Bard slipped to No. 28 because of his bonus demands. The Red Sox got him signed too late for him to pitch in 2006 and then had him start 2007 at the ridiculous offensive environment at Lancaster. Bard was awful there and little better following his demotion, but he did bounce back as a reliever in the Hawaiian Winter League, even if he kept walking far too many guys. Bard still has one thing that can't be taught: a fastball that's topped out at 101 mph. He also possesses a slider than comes and goes as a plus pitch. Perhaps he's just a reliever, but he could prove to be a very good one.
10. Oscar Tejeda - SS - DOB: 12/26/89 - ETA: 2013
.295/.344/.399, 1 HR, 21 RBI, 27/15 K/BB, 6 SB in 173 AB (R GCL Red Sox)
.298/.347/.394, 0 HR, 12 RBI, 26/6 K/BB, 4 SB in 94 AB (SS-A Lowell)
Given a $550,000 bonus to sign out of the Dominican Republic in 2006, Tejeda is the one player in Boston's top 10 that wasn't drafted by the team. A talented defensive shortstop, Tejeda exceeded expectations by more than simply holding his own as a 17-year-old last year. It looks like he'll get a crack at full-season ball at age 18. Tejeda probably won't offer big-time power, but he hits plenty of liners and runs well. It'll be 2009 or 2010 before he's ready to put up particularly good minor league numbers.
Next five: LHP Nick Hagadone, OF Jason Place, C George Kottaras, 1B [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=778"]Chris Carter[/URL], OF Josh Reddick
Unwilling to pay the price for Johan Santana, the Red Sox still have what may be the game's deepest farm system. I think left-hander Kris Johnson would have made every other team's top 15. Craig Hansen, who had a little too much service time to qualify anyway, would have come in 17th. Two very notable 2007 draft picks, Will Middlebrooks and Ryan Dent, failed to crack the lists, as did big international signings Michael Almanzar and Che-Hsuan Lin. ? Hagadone was Boston's top pick last year and offers middle-of-the-rotation potential. ? Place, a 2006 first-rounder, remains a big-time project after striking out 160 times last season. Still, as one of the circuit's youngest players, he managed an OPS 35 points above the league average in Hawaii over the winter. ? Kottaras hit .318/.389/.582 in the second half for Triple-A Pawtucket. He probably won't be a starting catcher, but he should contribute as a role player. ? Reddick hit .306/.352/.531 as a 20-year-old in the Sally League.
2007 top 15: Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, George Kottaras, Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, Jason Place, Bryce Cox, Kris Johnson, Brandon Moss, Lars Anderson, David Murphy, Felix Doubront, Edgar Martinez, Justin Masterson
2006 top 15: Andy Marte, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Craig Hansen, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kelly Shoppach, Jed Lowrie, Manny Delcarmen, Brandon Moss, Luis Soto, Clay Buchholz, Edgar Martinez, David Murphy, Abe Alvarez
2005 top 10: Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Kelly Shoppach, Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester, Anibal Sanchez, Abe Alvarez, Luis Soto, Brandon Moss, David Murphy
2004 top 10: Kevin Youkilis, Hanley Ramirez, Kelly Shoppach, Charlie Zink, David Murphy, Jon Lester, Chad Spann, Juan Cedeno, Matt Murton, Abe Alvarez
2003 top 10: Hanley Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Freddy Sanchez, Phil Dumatrait, Kelly Shoppach, Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Tony Blanco, Josh Hancock, Jerome Gamble
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New York Yankees
1. Joba Chamberlain - RHP - DOB: 09/23/85 - ETA: Now
4-0, 2.03 ERA, 25 H, 51/11 K/BB in 40 IP (A Tampa)
4-2, 3.35 ERA, 32 H, 66/15 K/BB in 40 1/3 IP (AA Trenton)
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 18/1 K/BB in 8 IP (AAA Scranton)
2-0, 0.38 ERA, 12 H, 34/6 K/BB in 24 IP (AL New York)
Perhaps the game's most dominant reliever after being called up last season, Chamberlain is everything the Yankees could ask for in an heir to Mariano Rivera in the closer's role. Still, the rotation is likely where he belongs long-term and he's expected to spend most of 2008 starting, even if he begins the year in the bullpen in an effort to restrict his innings total. Chamberlain used a 96-100 mph heater and outstanding slider to succeed as a reliever. He'll return his curveball and changeup to the mix as a starter, though he may not need to use either a lot even if he loses three or four mph off his fastball. Just how strong those two pitches are will determine whether he develops into a legitimate ace. The curve has drawn the better reviews of the two.
2. Jose Tabata - OF - DOB: 08/12/88 - ETA: 2010
.307/.371/.392, 5 HR, 54 RBI, 70/33 K/BB, 15 SB in 411 AB (A Tampa)
The numbers Tabata has put up at such a young age relative to his competition the last two years make him look like a truly special player. However, his right wrist problems have to be taken into account. He's had issues for two years now, and it was reported by Baseball America last season that the Yankees had sent him to five different hand specialists. In August, he had the hamate bone removed. If it turns out that it was a cure-all, then Tabata should put in a nice showing as perhaps the youngest player in Double-A this season. If not, it'll be time to start getting very worried. Tabata projects as a quality defensive right fielder capable of hitting for average and displaying 20-homer, 40-double power.
3. Ian Kennedy - RHP - DOB: 12/19/84 - ETA: Now
6-1, 1.29 ERA, 39 H, 72/22 K/BB in 63 IP (A Tampa)
5-1, 2.59 ERA, 27 H, 57/17 K/BB in 48 2/3 IP (AA Trenton)
1-1, 2.08 ERA, 25 H, 34/11 K/BB in 34 2/3 IP (AAA Scranton)
1-0, 1.89 ERA, 13 H, 15/9 K/BB in 19 IP (AL New York)
Kennedy made some teams nervous when his velocity fell into the high-80s as a junior in college, but the Yankees took him 21st overall in the 2006 draft anyway and were pleasantly surprised when he resumed averaging about 90 mph with his fastball last season. As strong as his curveball and changeup are, he doesn't need to throw any harder than that to last as a middle-of-the-rotation starter in the majors. The Yankees will likely go into the season with him as their fifth starter if they decide to stick Chamberlain in the pen initially. An alternative would be for Kennedy to pitch in middle relief while waiting for a rotation spot to open up.
4. Austin Jackson - OF - DOB: 02/01/87 - ETA: 2010
.260/.336/.374, 3 HR, 25 BI, 59/24 K/BB, 19 SB in 235 AB (A- Charleston)
.345/.398/.566, 10 HR, 34 RBI, 48/22 K/BB, 13 SB in 258 AB (A Tampa)
.333/.600/.667, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 3 AB (AAA Scranton)
When Jackson was moved up to the FSL in late June despite a 710 OPS in the Sally League, it seemed to be just another case of the Yankees being way too aggressive with a prospect. However, Jackson responded to the challenge right away and upped his stock more than any other prospect in baseball during the second half of the season. Still something of a raw talent, Jackson could blossom into a 25-homer guy despite his modest build. He's continuing to learn how to play center field, but he has the speed to last there, and it looks like he'll be a pretty good OBP guy after cutting well back on the strikeouts last season. Expecting him to make Melky Cabrera expendable after this season might be pushing it a little, but there's a good chance he'll prove to be the Yankees' long-term center fielder.
5. Alan Horne - RHP - DOB: 01/05/83 - ETA: Aug. 2008
12-4, 3.11 ERA, 149 H, 165/57 K/BB in 153 1/3 IP (AA Trenton)
Horne, who declined to sign after the Indians made him a first-round pick in 2001, developed into a legitimate prospect two seasons after helping pitch Florida into the finals of the College World Series in 2005. The Tommy John survivor has always had above average stuff, but his history of inconsistency dates back to his college days. If his performance over the first four months of last season demonstrates a new level of commitment, then he should be able to make it as a third or fourth starter. If not, his 90-95 mph fastball and quality curve could still play quite well in relief. I've seen more of him than I have any other pitcher in the minors and I'm still rather skeptical.
6. Dellin Betances - RHP - DOB: 03/23/88 - ETA: 2011
1-2, 3.60 ERA, 24 H, 29/17 K/BB in 25 IP (SS-A Staten Island)
Betances, listed at 6-foot-7 and 185 pounds, is the longest shot among the Yankees' top 10 prospects to have a significant career, but his upside warrants a spot. He just won't quite repeat in the top 150 after being shut down in July with forearm tendinitis. Betances can rush it to the plate in the mid-90s, and his hard curve should prove to be an out pitch in time. Still more of a thrower than a pitcher, he's yet to polish his changeup and he is pretty wild. Odds are that he'll continue to have arm issues, but if not, he could develop into a top starter someday. The compromise scenario would have him making an impact as a reliever in a few years.
7. Jesus Montero - C - DOB: 11/28/89 - ETA: 2012
.280/.366/.421, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 18/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 107 AB (R GCL Yankees)
Montero was arguably the prize of the 2006 international class and took a $2 million signing bonus from the Yankees. His pro debut last season was postponed by a sprained ankle, but he showed plenty of offensive potential after joining the GCL Yankees on July 16. Montero figures to someday offer 30-homer power, and he already shows a fairly advanced approach. If he were a better bet to remain behind the plate, he'd draw consideration as a top-150 prospect already. However, while few question his arm, his lack of receiving and blocking skills likely will eventually force a move to first base. He could develop into a star anyway, but obviously his margin for error isn't so great at the easier position.
8. Daniel McCutchen - RHP - DOB: 09/26/82 - ETA: June 2009
11-2, 2.50 ERA, 86 H, 67/21 K/BB in 101 IP (A Tampa)
3-2, 2.41 ERA, 30 H, 36/12 K/BB in 41 IP (AA Trenton)
McCutchen, a 2006 13th-round pick, got off to a late start last season because he still had some time to go on the 50-game steroids suspension he received two months after being drafted. Originally a reliever at Oklahoma, McCutchen works in the low-90s as a starter and does a nice job against lefties because of a splitter that acts like a changeup. He has a ways to go with his curve, and there's a good chance he'll end up back in the bullpen if he remains with the Yankees. He'd have a better chance of making it as a fourth starter elsewhere.
9. Humberto Sanchez - RHP - DOB: 05/28/83 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Sanchez, the best of the three prospects the Yankees picked up from the Tigers for Gary Sheffield, missed last season following Tommy John surgery. In 2006, he went 10-6 with a 2.63 ERA, 97 H and 129/47 K/BB in 123 IP between Double- and Triple-A. With a mid-90s fastball and a sharp curve, Sanchez possesses closer potential as a reliever. He could make it as a starter, but his command would have to improve considerably. He's going to miss at least the first month of this season, so it's unlikely he'll be seen in the Bronx until after the All-Star break.
10. Jeff Marquez - RHP - DOB: 08/10/84 - ETA: Sept. 2008
15-9, 3.65 ERA, 166 H, 94/44 K/BB in 155 1/3 IP (AA Trenton)
Marquez pitched well enough to win 15 games in the Eastern League as a 22-year-old, but he didn't help his stock very much last year with both his strikeout rate and his groundball rate tumbling. In 2006, he had an 82/29 K/BB ratio in 92 1/3 IP in the FSL and got two outs on the ground for each one through the air. In 2008, he finished at a fairly standard 1.4:1. With a legitimate low-90s fastball, Marquez still has room left to develop. He'll need to improve either his curveball or his change in order to make it.
Next five: 1B Juan Miranda, RHP Jonathan Albaladejo, OF Brett Gardner, RHP Ross Ohlendorf, RHP Kevin Whelan
The Yankees' list really drops off after the top four, with Horne as the only other prospect set to make the Top 150. However, there's an awful lot of depth here. While their prospects in the 5-15 range don't match up so well, they probably have as much upside after No. 15 as any team. Andrew Brackman and Jairo Heredia are a couple of big-time arms, Austin Romine and Francisco Cervelli are interesting catcher prospects and there are several more potential setup men, with Mark Melancon leading the way.
Miranda, a Cuban defector, would rank eighth on the list if we knew for sure that he was really 24. He's probably 26 or so, but he still could contribute as a platoon first baseman. ? Albaladejo and Ohlendorf will get chances to win bullpen spots out of spring training. ... Gardner, who offers tons of speed and some on-base ability from the left side, should prove to be a better version of Jason Tyner.
2007 top 15: Phil Hughes, Jose Tabata, Humberto Sanchez, Tyler Clippard, Joba Chamberlain, Eric Duncan, Dellin Betances, Kevin Whelan, J. Brent Cox, Ross Ohlendorf, Brett Gardner, Ian Kennedy, Christian Garcia, Austin Jackson, Jeff Marquez
2006 top 15: Phil Hughes, Eric Duncan, Jose Tabata, Christian Garcia, C.J. Henry, Tyler Clippard, J. Brent Cox, Melky Cabrera, Marcos Vechionacci, Sean Henn, Austin Jackson, Matt DeSalvo, Jeff Marquez, Eduardo Nunez, Brett Gardner
2005 top 10: Eric Duncan, Robinson Cano, Marcos Vechionacci, Phil Hughes, Jesse Hoover, Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, Bronson Sardinha, Jeff Marquez, Jorge DePaula
2004 top 10: Dioner Navarro, Robinson Cano, Eric Duncan, Jorge DePaula, Rudy Guillen, Estee Harris, Drew Henson, Ramon Ramirez, Scott Proctor, Mark Phillips
2003 top 10: Juan Rivera, Drew Henson, Brandon Claussen, Jorge DePaula, Bronson Sardinha, Sean Henn, Chien-Ming Wang, Danny Borrell, Rudy Guillen, Andy Phillips
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Tampa Bay Devil Rays
1. Evan Longoria - 3B - DOB: 10/07/85 - ETA: May 2008
.307/.403/.528, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 81/51 K/BB, 4 SB in 381 AB (AA Montgomery)
.269/.398/.490, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 29/22 K/BB, 0 SB in 104 AB (AAA Durham)
.318/.380/.682, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 13/4 K/BB, 0 SB in 44 AB (AFL Scottsdale)
Longoria finished with a pedestrian 789 OPS in his first of two seasons at Long Beach St., but he started hitting in the Cape Cod League in 2005 and hasn't stopped since. He had a 1070 OPS for the Dirtbags in 2006, a 957 mark at three levels after being drafted third overall and a 921 OPS in the high minors last season. He's already on the verge of taking over as Tampa Bay's third baseman, though it's possible the team will send him down for the first month or two of the season. Longoria will be a 30-homer guy by 2009 or 2010. His defense at the hot corner isn't stellar, but he should be able to stay at the position for at least the first half of his career. Since he probably won't hit .300 except for in his best years, he could fall short of being a perennial All-Star. Still, he'll be a well above average regular for a long time.
2. David Price - LHP - DOB: 08/26/85 - ETA: Sept. 2008
The Rays haven't let bonus demands scare them away from top talents lately. They used the first overall pick in the 2007 draft to select Price and then gave him a major league deal worth $8.5 million. With a mid-90s fastball, an excellent slider and a track record of success against top collegiate talent, Price has to be regarded as one of the game's top pitching prospects, even if he hasn't thrown a pitch as a pro. He went 11-1 with a 2.63 ERA, 95 H and a 194/31 K/BB ratio in 133 1/3 innings as a junior at Vanderbilt. The Rays waited until August to sign him, as they didn't want him adding to an already heavy workload. He'll be in major league camp this spring, and while he's not being mentioned as a possibility for the Opening Day rotation, he could leap over several other notable youngsters and debut before the end of the year. He might prove to be a legitimate ace in time.
3. Wade Davis - RHP - DOB: 09/07/85 - ETA: Aug. 2008
3-0, 1.84 ERA, 54 H, 88/21 K/BB in 78 1/3 IP (A Vero Beach)
7-3, 3.15 ERA, 74 H, 81/30 K/BB in 80 IP (AA Montgomery)
Once the Rays sort through some of their less talented youngsters, Davis figures to be the first of their top pitching prospects to reach the majors this year. Possessing a fastball in the 91-94 mph range, three complimentary pitches that should all prove useful and command that's improving each year, he could peak as a No. 2 starter. He also has an ideal pitcher's build and a delivery that would seem to help his chances of staying healthy. His changeup keeps left-handers honest, and he induces a fair number of grounders, allowing him to keep his home run rate down. Davis still needs to work on pitching inside, but he isn't far off.
4. Jake McGee - LHP - DOB: 08/06/86 - ETA: May 2009
5-4, 2.93 ERA, 86 H, 145/39 K/BB in 116 2/3 IP (A Vero Beach)
3-2, 4.24 ERA, 19 H, 30/13 K/BB in 23 1/3 IP (AA Montgomery)
One of the hardest throwing lefties in the minors, McGee is capable of reaching 98 mph with his fastball and typically averages right around 93-95 mph. He also offers a true strikeout curveball, and his changeup has come pretty quickly considering where it was when he was drafted in the fifth round in 2004. He does have trouble in the command department, something that will become more apparent as he faces hitters less willing to chase the curve. Still, he possesses about as much upside as any pitcher in the minors, Price included. Hurting his ranking a bit is that he's the most likely of the Rays' three elite pitching prospects to begin experiencing arm woes.
texasrangers.com
5. Reid Brignac - SS - DOB: 01/16/86 - ETA: April 2009
.260/.328/.433, 17 HR, 81 RBI, 94/55 K/BB, 15 SB in 527 AB (AA Montgomery)
.177/.218/.248, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 16/3 K/BB, 1 SB in 113 AB (AFL Scottsdale)
Brignac secured a spot as one of the game's top shortstop prospects while hitting .321/.376/.539 between Single-A Visalia and Double-A Montgomery in 2006, but he couldn't keep it going last season. He did improve as the year went on, though that was versus diluted talent in the Southern League. In the AFL, he managed just four extra-base hits and three walks in 113 at-bats. He was even caught stealing four times in five attempts. Brignac's left-handed swing promises 25-homer potential, and he likely will show the ability to hit for average once he settles into the majors. He still might be more of a bottom-half-of-the-order guy, like Khalil ++++++, but he will have a lengthy career as a regular. Helping his case is that he's answered every question about his ability to stay at shortstop. The Rays will go with Jason Bartlett this year and then consider turning the position over to Brignac in 2009.
6. Desmond Jennings - OF - DOB: 10/30/86 - ETA: 2010
.315/.401/.465, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 53/45 K/BB, 45 SB in 387 AB (A- Columbus)
newyorkmets.com
The Rays hardly seemed to need another top-flight outfield prospect, but they got one last year, as Jennings blossomed less than a year after he was stolen in the 10th round. Now that Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes are gone, with Rocco Baldelli a possibility to follow at some point in the next year, there's actually a pretty clear path for Jennings to the majors, though he's going to need another two seasons in the minors first. Jennings has terrific speed and should develop into an excellent center fielder in time, though he doesn't have a great arm. He shows leadoff potential in the batter's box, and it looks like he's already well on his way to developing modest power. If he can handle more advanced breaking balls, he could become a star.
7. Jeff Niemann - RHP - DOB: 02/28/83 - ETA: July 2008
12-6, 3.98 ERA, 144 H, 123/46 K/BB in 131 IP (AAA Durham)
Niemann finally managed to stay healthy last year, with his only missed time coming in early August because of shoulder fatigue. Still, the 6-foot-9 right-hander didn't display the same kind of velocity that made him the fourth overall selection in the 2004 draft. He still peaks in the mid-90s with his heater, but he was often under that, and neither his curve nor his slider resulted in as many strikeouts as hoped. He's going to have to adapt in order to begin fulfilling his potential and a legitimate changeup would help. He still has above average stuff, so there will be no giving up on him anytime soon. There's a good chance he'll be one of the first starters called up by the Rays this season.
8. Jeremy Hellickson - RHP - DOB: 04/08/87 - ETA: 2010
13-3, 2.67 ERA, 87 H, 106/34 K/BB in 111 1/3 IP (A- Columbus)
minnesotatwins.com
Babied since being drafted in the fourth round in 2005, Hellickson is still under 200 innings as a pro and he averaged just 5 1/3 innings per start last year, even though he was both very effective and quite efficient in the Sally League. Hellickson is consistently in the low-90s with his fastball, and his curveball is equally effective against lefties and righties. His changeup remains his third pitch, but it should be an average major league offering by the time he's ready to join the Rays. With several talented arms ahead of him, it's probably going to be another two full years before he gets his first look.
9. Eduardo Morlan - RHP - DOB: 03/01/86 - ETA: Aug. 2008
4-3, 3.15 ERA, 18 Sv, 55 H, 92/17 K/BB in 65 2/3 IP (A+ Fort Myers)
1-0, 2.25 ERA, 0 Sv, 3 H, 7/3 K/BB in 4 IP (AA New Britain)
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 Sv, 8 H, 7/6 K/BB in 12 2/3 IP (AFL Phoenix)
The Twins were probably right not to let a relief prospect stand in the way of a Delmon Young deal, but the trade sure did look a lot better when it was Juan Rincon included. The Rays ended up with Morlan instead and could have a new closer of the future. Morlan, a full-time reliever for the first time last year, has the mid-90s fastball-slider combination to dominate out of the pen. He could be up for good as soon as the second half of this year, with a setup role possible in 2009.
10. Joel Guzman - 3B/OF - DOB: 11/24/84 - ETA: June 2009
.242/.381/.408, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 117/23 K/BB, 9 SB in 414 AB (AAA Durham)
.243/.282/.378, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 10/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 37 AB (Tampa Bay)
cincinattireds.com
Guzman's stock has slipped considerably, but there's still way too much potential here to drop him from the top 10, even in such a strong organization. Guzman has the strength to someday reach 30 or 40 homers in a major league season, and he did manage to post lines of .287/.351/.475 as a 20-year-old in Double-A in 2005 and .297/.353/.461 in 317 AB for Triple-A Las Vegas in 2006. He's been a bust since arriving in Tampa Bay in the Julio Lugo deal, but he's still playing with guys typically quite a bit older than he is. Maybe the breakthrough will never come, but I think he has a reasonable chance of at least matching [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2353"]Jose Guillen[/URL]'s career, hopefully without cheating to get there.
Next five: C John Jaso, RHP Chris Mason, LHP Glenn Gibson, OF Ryan Royster, OF Fernando Perez
Jaso is going to struggle to stick behind the plate in the majors, but he might have the bat to make it as a DH. ? Mason can't crack the top 10 despite a 2.57 ERA and a 136/44 K/BB ratio in Double-A. He's a possible No. 4 starter. ? Knocked off the list by the acquisition of Gibson for Elijah Dukes was another outfielder, Justin Ruggiano. Of the three outfielders, Royster offers the most upside. Ruggiano is ready to help now, but he'll probably be a bench guy. Perez possesses on-base skills, but not much power and he's not a very good basestealer despite excellent speed.
atlantabraves.com
2007 top 15: Delmon Young, Evan Longoria, Reid Brignac, Jeff Niemann, Elijah Dukes, Joel Guzman, Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Wes Bankston, Jason Hammel, Andrew Sonnanstine, Juan Salas, Mitch Talbot, Jeremy Hellickson, Chuck Tiffany
2006 top 10: Delmon Young, Wes Bankston, Chuck Tiffany, Jeff Niemann, Elijah Dukes, Jason Hammel, Reid Brignac, Andrew Sonnanstine, John Jaso, Wade Townsend, Wade Davis, Chris Mason, Chris Seddon, Shawn Riggans, Jake McGee
2005 top 10: Delmon Young, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Niemann, Jonny Gomes, Wes Bankston, Chad Orvella, Joey Gathright, Reid Brignac, Elijah Dukes, Jason Hammel
2004 top 10: B.J. Upton, Delmon Young, Jonny Gomes, Josh Hamilton, Joey Gathright, Jon Switzer, Chad Gaudin, Doug Waechter, James Houser, Pete Laforest
2003 top 10: Rocco Baldelli, Josh Hamilton, Dewon Brazelton, B.J. Upton, Jonny Gomes, Seth McClung, Antonio Perez, Jason Pridie, Jon Switzer, Wes Bankston
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Toronto Blue Jays
1. Travis Snider - OF - DOB: 02/02/88 - ETA: Aug. 2009
.313/.377/.525, 16 HR, 93 RBI, 129/49 K/BB, 3 SB in 457 AB (A- Lansing)
.316/.404/.541, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 29/15 K/BB, 1 SB in 98 AB (AFL Scottsdale)
One of the most talented hitters in the minors and the Jays' only top-100 prospect, Snider has the potential to be the one star drafted in the first round by Toronto this decade. The team found Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios and Shannon Stewart in the first round in 90s, but the best they have to show for the 2000s so far is Aaron Hill, with Gabe Gross a distant second. A stocky left-handed hitter, Snider would be compared to Matt Stairs even if the two weren't in the same organization. It looks like he'll last in the outfield for at least a few years, and he figures to surpass Stairs offensively because of his ability to hit for average. He might advance quickly enough to reach the majors as a 21-year-old in 2009.
2. Brett Cecil - LHP - DOB: 07/02/86 - ETA: July 2009
1-0, 1.27 ERA, 36 H, 56/11 K/BB in 49 2/3 IP (SS-A Auburn)
If not for their five first- and supplemental first-round picks last year, the Jays would have the weakest prospect list of any organization. Cecil, a Maryland product, was their third selection, going 38th overall. Though he closed in college, the Jays plan on developing him as a starter, and his 88-91 mph fastball and very good slider should allow him to succeed in the middle of the rotation. He does need to perfect a changeup before he'll be ready to move quickly. That he has less mileage on his arm than most may pay off in the end.
3. Kevin Ahrens - SS - DOB: 04/26/89 - ETA: 2012
.230/.339/.321, 3 HR, 21 RBI, 47/25 K/BB, 3 SB in 165 AB (R GCL Blue Jays)
Ahrens, a switch-hitting infielder, looked like something of a reach with the 16th overall selection in the 2007 draft. He's still got a long way to go as a left-handed hitter, and he probably doesn't have the range to stick at shortstop. There is quite a bit of upside here, and since that's something lacking throughout Toronto's system, it's hard to blame GM J.P. Ricciardi for gambling. It's going to take several years, but he could develop into a 25-homer third baseman.
4. J.P. Arencibia - C - DOB: 01/05/86 - ETA: 2010
.254/.309/.377, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 56/14 K/BB, 0 SB in 228 AB (SS-A Auburn)
Arencibia was Toronto's second first-round pick after hitting .330/.450/.545 in his final year at Tennessee. Serious doubts about his ability to remain behind the plate resulted in him dropping to the 21st pick. He should be a 20-homer guy by the time he's ready for the majors, and he's athletic enough to become a quality defensive first baseman if he needs to make the switch. Ideally, he's show enough to remain a catcher and develop into a Mike Lieberthal-type player.
5. Yohermyn Chavez - RHP - DOB: 01/26/89 - ETA: 2012
.301/.389/.494, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 50/20 K/BB, 7 SB in 176 AB (R GCL Blue Jays)
The Jays didn't push Chavez at all in his second year in the U.S., holidng him out of action until June and then sending him to the GCL rather than the New York-Penn League. He responded with nice numbers for an 18-year-old, though he did strike out too much. Chavez offers considerable power potential, and he could turn into an offensive force if he gets himself out less frequently. He won't offer a lot of defensive value as a probable left fielder and he doesn't have great speed, so his bat will have to carry him.
6. David Purcey - LHP - DOB: 04/22/82 - Sept. 2008
3-5, 5.37 ERA, 67 H, 55/16 K/BB in 62 IP (AA New Hampshire)
1-2, 1.23 ERA, 13 H, 25/9 K/BB in 22 IP (AFL Scottsdale)
Even on a list this weak, Purcey was in danger of failing to make the cut until turning in one of the best performances of any pitcher in the Arizona Fall League. A cyst in his left arm limited him to 11 rather unimpressive starts during the regular season last year. The 2004 first-round pick has posted ERAs over 5.00 at each of his last three minor league stops. The Jays knew he was more of a project than most college pitchers when they drafted him, but they were hoping his command would come along. It finally showed signs last year. Purcey has always had plus stuff. He tops out in the mid-90s and gets strikeouts with his curve, so he should at least have a career as a reliever if he remains healthy.
7. Robinzon Diaz - C - DOB: 09/19/83 - ETA: April 2009
.316/.344/.409, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 16/11 K/BB, 5 SB in 301 AB (AA New Hampshire)
.338/.358/.431, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 6/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 65 AB (AAA Syracuse)
Diaz is a solid defensive catcher with a career average of .306 in the minors, but he'd still be in the 10-15 range in most organizations. Strictly backup material, Diaz puts a lot of pitches in play, but shows little power and walks twice a month. On defense, he offers an average arm and plate-blocking skills. The package should make him a long-term backup, though it may be tough for him to break in with the Jays unless the team decides Curtis Thigpen needs to be moved. They'll have a couple of openings in 2009, but it's hard to imagine them pairing the youngsters.
8. Justin Jackson - SS - DOB: 12/11/88 - ETA: 2013
.187/.274/.241, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 44/20 K/BB, 7 SB in 166 AB (R GCL Blue Jays)
Jackson, one of the Jays' supplemental first-round picks in 2007, displays a potentially excellent glove at shortstop and little else right now. He's big enough that he should develop 10- to 15-homer power someday, and he did draw a fair amount of walks while hitting .187 in the GCL. He's certainly not someone fantasy leaguers need worry about anytime soon.
9. Ricky Romero - LHP - DOB: 11/06/84 - ETA: 2010
0-0, 3.86 ERA, 4 H, 2/1 K/BB in 4 2/3 IP (A+ Dunedin)
3-6, 4.89 ERA, 98 H, 80/51 K/BB in 88 1/3 IP (AA New Hampshire)
1-1, 3.86 ERA, 8 H, 12/5 K/BB in 11 2/3 IP (AFL Scottsdale)
Optimistic they were getting a polished left-hander capable of contributing in the near future, the Jays drafted Romero sixth overall in 2005, taking him one spot ahead of where Troy Tulowitzki went. He's battled elbow problems ever since, though he's never undergone surgery. That might yet be an option if he continues to struggle this year. When he's going well, Romero throws in the high-80s and both his curve and change look like major league pitchers. Still, he's a long shot now to develop into a fourth or fifth starter.
10. Trystan Magnuson - LHP - DOB: 06/06/85 - ETA: Aug. 2009
According to Wikipedia, Magnuson had scholarship offers from Louisville for Engineering and from Kentucky to play the violin. He chose the former, walked on to the baseball team and went 56th overall to the Blue Jays in the 2007 draft after posting a 1.09 ERA and a 58/10 K/BB ratio in 58 innings as a senior. A 6-foot-7 lefty with a low-90s fastball and a quality slider, he projects as a setup man.
Next five: 2B John Tolisano, LHP Davis Romero, C Brian Jeroloman, LHP Marc Rzepczynski, RHP Kyle Ginley
Ineligible because of service time: Curtis Thigpen, Brian Wolfe
Thigpen would have ranked fifth, while Wolfe would have slipped into the 10-15 range. ? Tolisano was the Jays' sixth pick last year and could prove quite interesting if he can last at second base. ? Romero ranked seventh a year ago, but he missed the season with a torn labrum and might not return at 100 percent. ? Jeroloman, a University of Florida product, offers quality defense, a left-handed bat and a ton of patience at the plate (57/85 K/BB ratio in 290 AB for Single-A Dunedin), making him a potential backup. If only he possessed even modest power, inserting him into the top 10 would have been an easy call.
2007 top 15: Adam Lind, Travis Snider, Ricky Romero, Curtis Thigpen, David Purcey, Francisco Rosario, Davis Romero, Ryan Patterson, Kyle Yates, Josh Banks, Sergio Santos, Jesse Litsch, Brandon Magee, Chip Cannon, Jamie Vermilyea
2006 top 15: Dustin McGowan, Ricky Romero, David Purcey, Sergio Santos, Josh Banks, Adam Lind, Casey Janssen, Francisco Rosario, Guillermo Quiroz, Vince Perkins, Ryan Patterson, Curtis Thigpen, Davis Romero, Ryan Roberts, Chip Cannon
2005 top 10: Dustin McGowan, Brandon League, Guillermo Quiroz, Aaron Hill, Gabe Gross, Josh Banks, Francisco Rosario, David Purcey, Russ Adams, Vito Chiaravalloti
2004 top 10: Alex Rios, Dustin McGowan, Gabe Gross, Jason Arnold, Guillermo Quiroz, Vince Perkins, Brandon League, Dave Bush, John-Ford Griffin, Aaron Hill
2003 top 10: Gabe Gross, Jayson Werth, Dustin McGowan, Kevin Cash, Russ Adams, Francisco Rosario, Vinnie Chulk, Dominic Rich, Mike Smith, Mark Hendrickson
