Who's No. 1?
posted: Wednesday, July 19, 2006 | Feedback | Print Entry
filed under: Fantasy NFL, Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander
Welcome to July 19. Yep, not a minute too soon to be blogging about fantasy football again!
Really, there is no offseason at all, as we've been writing about fantasy football since the previous regular season ended. We had rankings, cheat sheets, columns, chats -- in early January. Now you get blogs. (Those who are worried about the loss of fantasy baseball blogs need not worry, I won't cut back on those yet.)
So for this week, let's start out with the most pressing question for fantasy footballers in 2006. There are many, but the big one has to be, who goes first? When you're drafting your teams on ESPN.com you'll see
Larry Johnson is No. 1. Same in plenty of the preview magazines. You know what?
I'm going with
Shaun Alexander.
It's a matter of opinion and taste, really, and certainly one cannot be faulted -- or go wrong -- with either choice. Sure, Johnson was a fantasy monster last season, after being a relative afterthought on draft day. (You remember that
Priest Holmes guy, the one who was drafted in the top five, don'tcha?) Johnson didn't do a whole lot the first eight weeks of the season, as he was ranked No. 24 among running backs. He had his moments, his talent was tantalizing, and fantasy owners knew that if he got his chance, he'd be terrific. Then Holmes went down, and Johnson dominated. That quickly the fantasy season was never the same. You faced the team with Johnson, you were in trouble.
From Week 9 to the end of the season, Johnson accumulated 254 ESPN performance points. For comparison sake, Alexander had 204 in that span, and only five other players even managed half of Johnson's fantasy production those final nine weeks. These guys were clearly the best, and Johnson was even better than Alexander, who ended the season as the top guy. Consider Johnson was marginal from Weeks 2 through 8 and still he caught
LaDainian Tomlinson for second overall in fantasy, regardless of position.
I know all this, and still I want Alexander if I get that coveted first pick. I'm not particularly worried about Johnson, who has a new coach, the threat of Holmes returning, whatever excuse you want to come up with. I'm taking him second, ahead of Tomlinson.
But Alexander doesn't concern me either, and while I doubt he puts up the same stats again, I also don't buy into this contract season theory that supposedly fueled his record-breaking 28 touchdowns. He's a great player. He's been a great player for years, consistent and productive no matter the situation. The Seahawks haven't gotten worse. Alexander isn't done yet. The easy way out is to call Alexander and Johnson 1 and 1a. I'm taking a minor stand and saying if I get a first pick, it's going to be Alexander.
Yes, I'm the fellow who generally takes the sure thing over the potential upside, not forgetting about how great it would be to cash in on the next big thing, but seldom overlooking what we do know. We know what Alexander has done, and pretty much what he's capable of doing for a few more years. So what if he's older? So what if Johnson has more upside? Alexander's safe. I've been fortunate to receive the No. 2 pick in a few drafts I've already done, experts leagues, the ones you see on other web sites and magazines, and Johnson's gone first, I've gleefully grabbed Alexander after. Tomlinson always goes third.
We'll check back in a few weeks, now that drafts have begun on our site, and see who you are taking first, but I'm thinking Johnson will be the pick. Again, it makes perfect sense. He's a yardage and scoring machine, and Alexander probably scores 10 fewer times than in 2005. Should make for a good blog. Share your thoughts, I'll run some feedback on this issue soon.
While the debate will continue on who goes first, there is one thing we can all agree on: You don't want to pick fourth! More on that in future blogs, as well as my thoughts on all positions, strategies, trends, injuries, you name it.
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Talked about wide receivers on The Hot List on ESPNEWS Tuesday, and when I sat down in the chair, host Steve Bunin asked me why
Marvin Harrison wasn't in the discussion. We were, after all, discussing who the top receivers were, and no Colts made the list. Harrison's certainly on my list, but he's not No. 1.
My choice is
Steve Smith of the Panthers, which certainly isn't going out on any limb, but why should I? I think statistically he is numero uno, so why tell people
Lee Evans is going to break out and be the best. (Of course that
could happen, but I doubt it.) Smith was the best receiver last season, and the No. 9 player in fantasy, and I think he can do it again. Doesn't matter when he's double teamed and everyone knows
Jake Delhomme is looking his way. He still had 103 receptions and 13 total touchdowns. The addition of
Keyshawn Johnson shouldn't affect that too much, in fact, it might make things easier for him.
At the same time, while I see the point on Johnson over Alexander, Carolina's Smith could be as low as four or five on your list of receivers, and I don't see that as a problem either. Rotowire.com's Jeff Erickson, my partner on the ESPNEWS segment Tuesday, went with
Torry Holt of the Rams. Sounds fair to me. Kevin Rounce, partner in crime on the
Fantasy Focus podcast from Tuesday, thinks
Terrell Owens reclaims his top spot. It's bold, and makes perfect sense. Owens is going to be a fantasy monster again. One magazine I saw went with
Chad Johnson of the Bengals. I think these are the only four receivers I can make a strong case for as No. 1 at the position. Harrison,
Randy Moss, both
Arizona Cardinals, they can come next.
The thing is, the order doesn't matter too much in a draft because we know where these top receivers are going, and you're likely only going to get one of the top four guys. When Smith or one of the others goes early in round two, the other top fellows follow. If I pick 15th, and Smith goes at 14, I'm not going to be real upset to snap up Owens, Holt or Johnson, probably in that order.
***
Let's check out some mail that has built up:
? Nathan, Seattle: "I've got too many potential keepers in my football keeper league and not enough tangible evidence to keep any of them but LaDainian Tomlinson. I can keep three players, two from the same position. Tomlinson is the only clear choice, but I've also got Terrell Owens,
Anquan Boldin,
Brian Westbrook,
DeShaun Foster,
Deuce McAllister and
Marc Bulger. Last year I was planning on keeping T.O. and McAllister, but now that
Reggie Bush is going to be too expensive not to play some of the time, I'm thinking Westbrook. My one constraint is we get three extra points awarded for rushing or receiving over 100 yards, which Westbrook rarely does. I can't believe what I'm thinking, but perhaps Boldin and T.O. would be the smartest choices. Any thoughts concerns or insults appreciated."
Eric: Well, I have no insults here, and I agree that those two receivers make fine keepers. It's true that running backs rule the roost in fantasy football, but I don't know if I consider your other running backs as terrific keepers. McAllister is coming off a major knee injury and might be a backup. Westbrook is going late first round in some leagues, but I worry about his durability, and believe
Ryan Moats will see a lot of playing time. I'd definitely keep Owens, so your choice is down to Westbrook or Boldin. Your call. I'd probably keep Westbrook because I'd be scared of who my second running back might end up being.
? Nick, Bay City, Mich.: "Hey Eric, I was reading ESPN's fantasy football magazine the other day and while looking at the 12-team expert draft you participated in, I realized something. You took Deuce McAllister and
Julius Jones over
Domanick Davis! Davis wound up falling to the fourth round somehow, and it all started with you passing on him. Explain yourself!"
Eric: Easy answer from me on this one, but it is an important one. That draft occurred a few weeks
before the NFL draft, which really needed to be made clear. Draft today, obviously, it all changes. At that time in early April, all indications were that the Texans were going to draft Reggie Bush and thus make Dom Davis a backup. Who knew the Saints would get this beautiful Easter present? So at the time of the draft, it was kind of assumed that Bush would be a Texan, thus reducing the value of Davis and making McAllister a decent No. 2 running back. Of course that didn't happen, so now Davis resumes his status as a possible No. 1 back (late first rounder) and nobody wants McAllister. I mean, do you really think I would have drafted
Jimmy Smith in the eighth round if I knew he'd retire a month later? It's ludicrous. People not only in Jacksonville were stunned when the productive Smith, the No. 19 wide receiver from last season, retired in early May. He had a contract. His statements a few weeks earlier were about getting back to Honolulu (Pro Bowl) and the Super Bowl. Who knew he'd step away? Maybe he'll come back, but I don't think we're playing that league out anyway. We drafted
five months prior to the season! So enjoy the mag's mock draft, as it can be informative and helpful, but I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't point out that one important fact about the date!
***
By the way, we've received a number of e-mails asking what happened to the Tuesday radio show, and here's the answer: The folks at ESPN Radio decided to turn it into a podcast. So if you want questions answered on that podcast, which I hear has been popular on iTunes, please continue to send the questions in. The
Sunday morning Fantasy Focus remains alive and well live from 7-9 a.m. ET, and we take phone calls and e-mails during that show, which is on national ESPN Radio. Check your local affiliate. Fantasy owners can also get questions answered twice a week starting next week in the chat room, likely on Tuesdays and Fridays at 10 a.m. ET. We talk fantasy for an hour at that time each weekday. Here's the
baseball wrap from today and last Friday's
football wrap.
