OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Yes you did read it right, I've just sold Oil on the futures market for my maximum ( $50) I could write many paragraphs as to why its going to fall but it would mean putting my dastardly unique globalization derivatives hold one nut while trading system open to abuse.
The point is to have faith in me and not some joker on Wall St who couldnt give a fuck about you and is only looking to pick your pocket. The speculators have had an easy gravy train but now the pillars that have supported their optimism are being taken away one by one leaving them exposed. Its only a matter of time that they run for cover and sell big time, pushing the market down.
The market will be volitile but according to my Guru, the Dog next door who barks continously in an Oil Bull market, has stopped since Wednesday night. Get your cash in the sell market and by September you will be counting your profits. :cheers
 
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

September is the end of the summer driving season.

Makes perfect sense as demand will fall accordingly.
 
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

September is the end of the summer driving season.

Makes perfect sense as demand will fall accordingly.

and the start of the heating oil season. I think oil will trade at about current levels for awhile, but a drop would be good.

I doubt gas ( $4.35 in my area) ever goes under $4 again.
 

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

According to the Dog next Door's barks, the subsides being taken away by far East Governments including China will put pressure on the price to bottom out, however, speculators have in their Port Folios 8 Times the expected future consumption in the next Year.
While the Dollar was falling this position was secure with the fore-mentioned subsides but with the Dollar also bottoming out, these speculators are left in a vunerable situation. Somewhere along the line these geezers are going to sell but more in a drip feed so as to not spook the Market. :cheers
 

msftkid

EOG Addicted
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

Futures are tuff to beat !!!!!! Which exchange are you using? NY Merc or the IPE in London. Do you think CFTC is getting ready to raise the margin requirements in the petroleum complex?
 
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

WB: What do you see oiling dropping to, it's about $135USD a barrel now....

$100 ?
 

The Devil

EOG Master
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

i agree with winbet........I don't know where the bottom is, and gas prices will never drop to the 2 $ level again.........but I can seee 3.20-3.40 by years end.......
 

MRSOSUCOWBOYS

EOG Addicted
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask off the old Lone Ranger
And you don't mess around with shorting oil, da do da do...



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Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

i agree with winbet........I don't know where the bottom is, and gas prices will never drop to the 2 $ level again.........but I can seee 3.20-3.40 by years end.......

Definite Short Buy. Just like Gold a few years ago.
No play here cause I don't know the entry point.

Gas will not fall as it should. Thanks to G FU Bush.
 
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

Saudi Arabia and OPEC nations will be increasing oil production. Put that with the end of the driving season and we'll have a decrease in oil prices.
WINBET: Let us know if there is something else that us investors are not seeing. Thanks.

APPLE
 

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

The price is not going to drop long term but $100 a barrel short term is what the Dog next door is barking, unless I've misjudged a Woof Woof Woof, yap yap Woof totally. :smokesmal:cheers
 
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

Remember Crude Oil prices do not have a direct relationship with gas prices at the pump. They do mirror each other more often than not, but if oil drops $13 a barrel don't expect a 10% drop in price at the pump.

Also, remember the political party backed by big oil in the US. They can make an impact in this upcoming election by perception. A moderate price drop prior to an election with the Republican President in office lends perception to the American people that a Republican must stay in ofice to continue the effect.

Winbet, I agree with you, but believe it will make another run prior to its' decline.
 
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WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

What's the dog's record ?

The Dog is just thankful to be alive but in his last Life he was a Wall St Broker and remembers the 1930s debacle, He often barks to me that his nuts are still sore from that life. :cheers
 

NickPappagiorgio

EOG Dedicated
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

Remember Crude Oil prices do not have a direct relationship with gas prices at the pump. They do mirror each other more often than not, but if oil drops $13 a barrel don't expect a 10% drop in price at the pump.

Also, remember the political party backed by big oil in the US. They can make an impact in this upcoming election by perception. A moderate price drop prior to an election with the Republican President in office lends perception to the American people that a Republican must stay in ofice to continue the effect.

Winbet, I agree with you, but believe it will make another run prior to its' decline.

This is true when Oil prices fall, but when they rise the oil companies use it as an excuse to raise gas prices.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

As I recall, gas prices did fall significantly before the 2004 election.
 

jlawbaker

EOG Senior Member
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

Keep this in mind. All it takes is one major hurricane in the northern Gulf of Mexico to push the price of oil to between $175-$200 a barrel. At that point, you will see $6.00 per gallon for gas.:bank:
 

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

Keep this in mind. All it takes is one major hurricane in the northern Gulf of Mexico to push the price of oil to between $175-$200 a barrel. At that point, you will see $6.00 per gallon for gas.:bank:[/quote

Yes you are correct to some degree but the future risks like you mentioned and War have been taken into account for once with the price. The whole inflation has taken place because of a weak Dollar and various Government policies which both are now being addressed, as I said earlier, speculators now have no safety nets and thats why they will bale out of the market and invest in the Dollar. :cheers
 
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

With the weakness in the US Dollar there is NO WAY I would short oil right now.

I agree, and we are at the start of hurricane season and the summer driving season. Seems like oil has a more likelihood of going up than down in the next 3 months.
 
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

Trying to talk common sense into an absolutely raging bubble is a waste. Is oil overpriced? You betcha. Will it fall? Someday. Will it make you rich betting against it? The graveyard is littered with traders who were right in direction, but off even just a bit in timing.

I'd suggest remembering the old trading adage "Don't try to catch a falling knife." That is what taking the bear case on oil is like right now.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

and the start of the heating oil season. I think oil will trade at about current levels for awhile, but a drop would be good.

I doubt gas ( $4.35 in my area) ever goes under $4 again.

??? I paid $3.85 today..gas will be as low as $3.33 a gallon again.
 

JC

EOG Veteran
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

Yes you did read it right, I've just sold Oil on the futures market for my maximum ( $50) I could write many paragraphs as to why its going to fall but it would mean putting my dastardly unique globalization derivatives hold one nut while trading system open to abuse.
The point is to have faith in me and not some joker on Wall St who couldnt give a fuck about you and is only looking to pick your pocket. The speculators have had an easy gravy train but now the pillars that have supported their optimism are being taken away one by one leaving them exposed. Its only a matter of time that they run for cover and sell big time, pushing the market down.
The market will be volitile but according to my Guru, the Dog next door who barks continously in an Oil Bull market, has stopped since Wednesday night. Get your cash in the sell market and by September you will be counting your profits. :cheers

You make the word speculator sound like a dirty word.
 

Bagiant

EOG Dedicated
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

If oil drops seriously in one day, it might cause some margin calls which could lead to more selling etc. Just as fast as it went up, it could fall.
 
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

Keep this in mind. All it takes is one major hurricane in the northern Gulf of Mexico to push the price of oil to between $175-$200 a barrel. At that point, you will see $6.00 per gallon for gas.[/quote

Yes you are correct to some degree but the future risks like you mentioned and War have been taken into account for once with the price. The whole inflation has taken place because of a weak Dollar and various Government policies which both are now being addressed, as I said earlier, speculators now have no safety nets and thats why they will bale out of the market and invest in the Dollar.

In less than 2 years, gas will be $6 or higher whether or not major hurricanes occur near the Gulf of Mexico.

12io4j2w90
 

seattle slew

EOG Senior Member
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

I'd expect it to fall below $3 for gas by the presidential election because it's such a big issue.

But beware. Oil companies will try and scare people into buying winter heating contracts right now at 4 to $5 a gallon for home heating season that starts in October. Many will fall for it.
 

LobWedgePhil

EOG Addicted
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

In the past, it is true, Oil drops before an election, but I am not so sure that I would go with it this time. So much to go against it. And I know that everyone else here hates it, but I love the high price of oil. That being said, it is to high, it should be about 80 a barrel, not 133, but as my income is based on this, I will not complain.
 
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

Speculators Not to Blame for High Oil Prices
A new study authored by IER economist Robert Murphy , Speculators Fixing Oil Prices? Don’t Bet On It , sheds some much needed light on the role speculation plays in the global oil market.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • Record-high oil prices demand a target, and some politicians are increasingly pointing the finger at speculators in the commodities futures markets. But high oil prices are due to restricted supply, booming demand, and a weakening dollar.
  • There is no hard evidence that speculators are responsible for high oil prices. If the price of oil truly were above the level that the fundamentals could support, we would see growing inventories of crude. But inventory levels show no such pattern.
  • Speculators provide a vital function. By buying when prices are low and selling when prices are high, they actually make oil prices less volatile. Large investment funds provide liquidity to the commodities futures markets, and allow producers and consumers to concentrate on their core businesses.
  • Government restrictions on investment in the oil futures market will only hurt consumers by making the oil market less efficient. New regulations will do nothing to ease oil prices in the long term.
Click here for Murphy’s complete analysis. (60KB PDF).


http://www.institut eforenergyresear ch.org/2008/ 06/23/speculator s-not-to- blame-for- high-oil- prices/
 
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

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I doubt gas ( $4.35 in my area) ever goes under $4 again.
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READILY UNDER $4


<BIG class=pr>Reuters</BIG>
Oil falls 5.4 percent in biggest drop since 2004
Friday August 22, 3:35 pm ET
By Richard Valdmanis
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude oil prices fell more than 5.4 percent on Friday in the biggest one-day slide since 2004 as dealers turned their focus to rising supply levels and weakening global demand.
A rebound in the U.S. dollar encouraged the sell-off, applying downward pressure across the commodities markets by weakening the purchasing power of buyers using other currencies, dealers said.
The slide adds to a more than 20 percent fall in the price of crude since mid-July and could increase the chance oil cartel OPEC will cut official production limits when the group meets in Vienna on September 9.
U.S. crude fell $6.59, or 5.4 percent, to settle at $114.59 a barrel -- the biggest fall in percentage terms since December 27, 2004. London Brent crude fell $6.24 to $113.92 a barrel.
"People who were buying yesterday are taking profits today," said Peter Beutel, analyst at consultancy Cameron Hanover. "There is also renewed technical selling and talk again of demand destruction. The dollar is strong again too."
The declines Friday were encouraged by two reports -- one showing an uptick in OPEC crude oil output and another showing an expected decline in U.S. travel over the September 1 Labor Day holiday weekend as high fuel prices hit consumers.
Industry consultant Petrologistics said on Friday OPEC oil output was expected to rise in August by 450,000 barrels per day, to 32.95 million bpd, a factor that could further beef up inventory levels in consumer nations.
Meanwhile, the U.S. auto and travel group AAA said that Labor Day holiday travel was expected to fall this year by the largest amount in at least eight years as consumers struggle with higher gasoline prices and airfares.
Concerns high energy costs are taking a toll on global fuel demand have played a big role in oil's sharp descent from peaks above $147 a barrel in mid-July. But oil prices remain up about 15 percent so far this year.
Friday's losses came after a big climb in prices earlier in the week that had been supported by rising tension between the United States and Russia, the world's second biggest oil producer.
Russia said this week it would respond with more than just a diplomatic protest to a U.S. deal with Poland to station parts of a U.S. missile defense shield on Polish soil.
Relations between Russia and the West had already been strained by Moscow's military intervention in Georgia, a conflict that has already disrupted rail shipments of Azeri oil through the region.
Meanwhile, operations on the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline were ramping up with a cargo of Azeri crude scheduled to be loaded in Turkey early next week -- the first cargo since an explosion on the line in Turkey August 5. (Additional reporting by Bate Felix and Santosh Menon in London and Felicia Loo in Singapore; Editing by Christian Wiessner):party:party
 

PalmTree

EOG Dedicated
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

Yup. No one realized how much oil China was hoarding to avoid shortfalls during the games. That, as much as anything else, is responsible for a big part of the drop once they got out of the market. But nevertheless, great call.
 

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

I actually boosted my investment in this by 100% ( he who dares and all that):pop: As College starts next week I have sold out at a 22% ROI :houragiving me an extra $22 to go to War with this Season. :party
Before you ask, yes I'm looking deep into the financial life of the Red Kidney Bean, which is a Grey area for the wiz kids on Wall St. Apparently beans across the board are been ( no pun intended) decimated by the Zimbabwain lesser spotted Fly but the Red Kidney Bean actually kills them. This means 3rd World Countries will have a big demand for them therefore boosting the price of a Chilli-con-Carne many fold. Its just a matter of picking the right angle here.:cheers
 

ZZ CREAM

EOG Master
Re: OIL READY TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR

Keep this in mind. All it takes is one major hurricane in the northern Gulf of Mexico to push the price of oil to between $175-$200 a barrel. At that point, you will see $6.00 per gallon for gas.:bank:[/quote

Yes you are correct to some degree but the future risks like you mentioned and War have been taken into account for once with the price. The whole inflation has taken place because of a weak Dollar and various Government policies which both are now being addressed, as I said earlier, speculators now have no safety nets and thats why they will bale out of the market and invest in the Dollar. :cheers
You are God!:houra:houra:houra

I thought God was George Burns............now I know he is Irish!:cheers:cheers
 
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