Flamingo kid
Everybody's hands go UP!
I have a few handicapping theories on MLB, i'll run them up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes.
1) Consider being really careful betting on a heavy favorite. There's so much parity in this league, that there is really no reason to be wagering on -180 or -200
2) Consider fading 'name' pitchers, especially when the name pitcher's team isnt as good as the other guys team. Don't forget that if a brand name pitcher is on the hill vs a generic brand, that generic pitcher, on quite a few occasions, will raise his game to a much higher level. He'll be able to bring is A game. Know your pitcher and know if your guy is a 'gamer'. That 'gamer' guy who isnt' as good as the elite guy, can surprise you in that situation.
Betting on 'name' pitchers means that you aren't getting the best of it from a value standpoint. Go with the young, talented guy who no one has heard of. Invent your own Johan Santana and find him before everyone else does.
3) Consider staying away from pitchers who miss time and probably 'need a start', especially if they are brand name guys. Dice K comes to mind as a guy who needed a start...when a guy misses time, if he comes back as the favorite, say to yourself, "i'd like to see one"
4) Consider betting on a back class pitcher who had a bad game in his last start if that pitcher had been otherwise pitching well and just had a bad game for no particular reason. If a guy with a hundred lifetime wins or more (or, an established quality pitcher) has a bad game but otherwise had been sharp, that guy is really likely to come back strong. Guys don't win tons of games in the bigs if they have no heart......you can bet that guy who had a bad outing can't wait to get back on the hill and redeem himself.
5) Consider betting against a team who is coming home after a long road trip.
6) Consider not betting on or against a team because they are 'due' to either win or lose. Anyone who's been betting on teams who have lost the first 2 games of their series has been getting crushed recently as there have been tons of sweeps. No one is due to do anything, teams lose games because they aren't playing good enough to win and losing 2 in row doesn't mean they are due to win game 3 of the series. Just be careful here.
7) Consider falling in love with teams who have shitty records at the all star break. This MLB has SO much parity right now, anything is possible. Your all star break assignment is to look at the standings and identify which teams have overachieved in the first half and which teams have underachieved. These crappy teams, some of them, will get on a bit of a roll at some point, even if its for a short period of time. Even the worst teams win at least 60 games.
8) Always remember that you are betting against the public which means you need to continually ask yourself, "what do i know about a certain team or situation that the public doesn't really know". I call it my 'just open up the newspaper' theory. Anyone can open up the newspaper and see which pitcher has the best record or best ERA. Opening up the paper isn't going to get you winners....you need to uncover some info that's not in the mainstream and exploit it in order to be successful.
9) Consider watching as many games as you can and really observe the play and don't really worry about the final score. Many times, the score doesn't tell the tale. After the game ask yourself, "did the final score really tell the tale". If it didn't tell the tale, you might have an edge for next time.
10) Consider the 'letdown' theory. Some teams get really fired up to play other teams and then in the following series, they aren't as excited. Perfect example is the Cubs. They played a highly charged series vs The White Sox (aka the good guys) and swept them and were feeling oh so good about themselves. In come the nameless and faceless Orioles and yep, i'm sure you can guess what happened.
Ok, so there's 10 things to ponder.
op:
1) Consider being really careful betting on a heavy favorite. There's so much parity in this league, that there is really no reason to be wagering on -180 or -200
2) Consider fading 'name' pitchers, especially when the name pitcher's team isnt as good as the other guys team. Don't forget that if a brand name pitcher is on the hill vs a generic brand, that generic pitcher, on quite a few occasions, will raise his game to a much higher level. He'll be able to bring is A game. Know your pitcher and know if your guy is a 'gamer'. That 'gamer' guy who isnt' as good as the elite guy, can surprise you in that situation.
Betting on 'name' pitchers means that you aren't getting the best of it from a value standpoint. Go with the young, talented guy who no one has heard of. Invent your own Johan Santana and find him before everyone else does.
3) Consider staying away from pitchers who miss time and probably 'need a start', especially if they are brand name guys. Dice K comes to mind as a guy who needed a start...when a guy misses time, if he comes back as the favorite, say to yourself, "i'd like to see one"
4) Consider betting on a back class pitcher who had a bad game in his last start if that pitcher had been otherwise pitching well and just had a bad game for no particular reason. If a guy with a hundred lifetime wins or more (or, an established quality pitcher) has a bad game but otherwise had been sharp, that guy is really likely to come back strong. Guys don't win tons of games in the bigs if they have no heart......you can bet that guy who had a bad outing can't wait to get back on the hill and redeem himself.
5) Consider betting against a team who is coming home after a long road trip.
6) Consider not betting on or against a team because they are 'due' to either win or lose. Anyone who's been betting on teams who have lost the first 2 games of their series has been getting crushed recently as there have been tons of sweeps. No one is due to do anything, teams lose games because they aren't playing good enough to win and losing 2 in row doesn't mean they are due to win game 3 of the series. Just be careful here.
7) Consider falling in love with teams who have shitty records at the all star break. This MLB has SO much parity right now, anything is possible. Your all star break assignment is to look at the standings and identify which teams have overachieved in the first half and which teams have underachieved. These crappy teams, some of them, will get on a bit of a roll at some point, even if its for a short period of time. Even the worst teams win at least 60 games.
8) Always remember that you are betting against the public which means you need to continually ask yourself, "what do i know about a certain team or situation that the public doesn't really know". I call it my 'just open up the newspaper' theory. Anyone can open up the newspaper and see which pitcher has the best record or best ERA. Opening up the paper isn't going to get you winners....you need to uncover some info that's not in the mainstream and exploit it in order to be successful.
9) Consider watching as many games as you can and really observe the play and don't really worry about the final score. Many times, the score doesn't tell the tale. After the game ask yourself, "did the final score really tell the tale". If it didn't tell the tale, you might have an edge for next time.
10) Consider the 'letdown' theory. Some teams get really fired up to play other teams and then in the following series, they aren't as excited. Perfect example is the Cubs. They played a highly charged series vs The White Sox (aka the good guys) and swept them and were feeling oh so good about themselves. In come the nameless and faceless Orioles and yep, i'm sure you can guess what happened.
Ok, so there's 10 things to ponder.
op:
