Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

R

rjt721

EOG Master
I realize there are many variables to play out during Tuesday's game that could greatly effect the number. But as of right now, what's the line?

I'm thinking Rays -132, but Matsuzaka seemingly gets more (unwarranted) respect than any pitcher in baseball. Regardless, despite just a 6-6 career mark against Boston, Kazmir owns the Sox more so than any other current pitcher -- Manny, Lowell, Drew, Youkilis, Varitek and Lugo are a combined 27/141 (.191) with 53 Ks in their career of Kazmir. Pedroia, 10/18, is the only regular with any past success against Kazmir (Ellsbury has just 9 career ABs).

Difficult line to set.
 
R

rjt721

EOG Master
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

The poster who most accurately guesses the opening Pinny line wins absolutely nothing.
 
A

Apple

Banned
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

Dice-K lines this season:


<TABLE class=datatable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TH class=headergrey colSpan=3>June 2008</TH><TH class=header1 colSpan=5>Results</TH><TH class=header1 colSpan=7>Statistics</TH><TR><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=60>Date</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=120>Opponent</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=110>Opposing Pitcher</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=40>Line</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=40>OU</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=70>Score</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=40>Res</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=25>OU</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=35>IP</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=25>H</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>R</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>ER</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>BB</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>SO</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>HR</TH></TR><TR class=cell1><TD align=right>6-27-08</TD><TD>at HOUSTON</TD><TD>R HERNANDEZ</TD><TD align=right>-145</TD><TD align=right>9.5</TD><TD align=right>6-1 (W)</TD><TD align=right>Win</TD><TD align=right>Un</TD><TD align=right>5.00</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TR class=cell2><TD align=right>6-21-08</TD><TD>vs ST LOUIS</TD><TD>M BOGGS</TD><TD align=right>-265</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>3-9 (L)</TD><TD align=right>Loss</TD><TD align=right>Ov</TD><TD align=right>1.00</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TR><TH class=headergrey colSpan=3>May 2008</TH><TH class=header1 colSpan=5>Results</TH><TH class=header1 colSpan=7>Statistics</TH><TR><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=60>Date</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=120>Opponent</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=110>Opposing Pitcher</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=40>Line</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=40>OU</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=70>Score</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=40>Res</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=25>OU</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=35>IP</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=25>H</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>R</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>ER</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>BB</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>SO</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>HR</TH></TR><TR class=cell1><TD align=right>5-27-08</TD><TD>at SEATTLE</TD><TD>M BATISTA</TD><TD align=right>-185</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>3-4 (ND)</TD><TD align=right>Loss</TD><TD align=right>Un</TD><TD align=right>4.00</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TR class=cell2><TD align=right>5-22-08</TD><TD>vs KANSAS CITY</TD><TD>B BANNISTER</TD><TD align=right>-185</TD><TD align=right>8.5</TD><TD align=right>11-8 (W)</TD><TD align=right>Win</TD><TD align=right>Ov</TD><TD align=right>5.67</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TR class=cell1><TD align=right>5-17-08</TD><TD>vs MILWAUKEE</TD><TD>J SUPPAN</TD><TD align=right>-225</TD><TD align=right>9.5</TD><TD align=right>5-3 (W)</TD><TD align=right>Win</TD><TD align=right>Un</TD><TD align=right>6.67</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TR class=cell2><TD align=right>5-10-08</TD><TD>at MINNESOTA</TD><TD>G PERKINS</TD><TD align=right>-165</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>5-2 (W)</TD><TD align=right>Win</TD><TD align=right>Un</TD><TD align=right>7.00</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TR class=cell1><TD align=right>5-5-08</TD><TD>at DETROIT</TD><TD>J BONDERMAN</TD><TD align=right>-110</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>6-3 (W)</TD><TD align=right>Win</TD><TD align=right>P</TD><TD align=right>5.00</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TR><TH class=headergrey colSpan=3>April 2008</TH><TH class=header1 colSpan=5>Results</TH><TH class=header1 colSpan=7>Statistics</TH><TR><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=60>Date</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=120>Opponent</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=110>Opposing Pitcher</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=40>Line</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=40>OU</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=70>Score</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=40>Res</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=25>OU</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=35>IP</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=25>H</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>R</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>ER</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>BB</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>SO</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>HR</TH></TR><TR class=cell2><TD align=right>4-30-08</TD><TD>vs TORONTO</TD><TD>D MCGOWAN</TD><TD align=right>-155</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>2-1 (ND)</TD><TD align=right>Win</TD><TD align=right>Un</TD><TD align=right>7.00</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TR class=cell1><TD align=right>4-18-08</TD><TD>vs TEXAS</TD><TD>L MENDOZA</TD><TD align=right>-215</TD><TD align=right>10.5</TD><TD align=right>11-3 (W)</TD><TD align=right>Win</TD><TD align=right>Ov</TD><TD align=right>5.33</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TR class=cell2><TD align=right>4-13-08</TD><TD>vs NY YANKEES</TD><TD>P HUGHES</TD><TD align=right>-140</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>8-5 (W)</TD><TD align=right>Win</TD><TD align=right>Ov</TD><TD align=right>5.00</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TR class=cell1><TD align=right>4-8-08</TD><TD>vs DETROIT</TD><TD>K ROGERS</TD><TD align=right>-160</TD><TD align=right>9.5</TD><TD align=right>5-0 (W)</TD><TD align=right>Win</TD><TD align=right>Un</TD><TD align=right>6.67</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TR class=cell2><TD align=right>4-1-08</TD><TD>at OAKLAND</TD><TD>J BLANTON</TD><TD align=right>-120</TD><TD align=right>8.5</TD><TD align=right>2-1 (W)</TD><TD align=right>Win</TD><TD align=right>Un</TD><TD align=right>6.67</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TR><TH class=headergrey colSpan=3>March 2008</TH><TH class=header1 colSpan=5>Results</TH><TH class=header1 colSpan=7>Statistics</TH><TR><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=60>Date</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=120>Opponent</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=110>Opposing Pitcher</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=40>Line</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=40>OU</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=70>Score</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=40>Res</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=25>OU</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=35>IP</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=25>H</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>R</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>ER</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>BB</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>SO</TH><TH class=header1 noWrap align=middle width=30>HR</TH></TR><TR class=cell1><TD align=right>3-25-08</TD><TD> OAKLAND</TD><TD>J BLANTON</TD><TD align=right>-165</TD><TD align=right>9.5</TD><TD align=right>6-5 (ND)</TD><TD align=right>Win</TD><TD align=right>Ov</TD><TD align=right>5.00</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
A

Apple

Banned
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

I put thought into this considering the Red Sox fade thingy I have going..

I figured TB would be -125, but I'm not good at baseball..
 
R

rjt721

EOG Master
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

That's true, gyno. But he's yet to oppose anything close to a pitcher of Kazmir's status (if anyone mentions Bonderman, they're banned).

I brought this up because I could see anything as low as TB -118, or as high as -140. Personally, I think anything lower than -135 is a bargain.
 
A

Apple

Banned
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

Kazmir is by far the best Opposing Pitcher Dice K has been matched against..


IMO TB will likely be somewhere between (-121 to -131 )
 
Pickandwin2

Pickandwin2

EOG Dedicated
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

rjt721 said:
I realize there are many variables to play out during Tuesday's game that could greatly effect the number. But as of right now, what's the line?

I'm thinking Rays -132, but Matsuzaka seemingly gets more (unwarranted) respect than any pitcher in baseball. Regardless, despite just a 6-6 career mark against Boston, Kazmir owns the Sox more so than any other current pitcher -- Manny, Lowell, Drew, Youkilis, Varitek and Lugo are a combined 27/141 (.191) with 53 Ks in their career of Kazmir. Pedroia, 10/18, is the only regular with any past success against Kazmir (Ellsbury has just 9 career ABs).

Difficult line to set.
Click to expand...


Tomorrow game will have little bearing on Wed. line.

Either way, TB will be the Fav, line should open around -121 and close somewhere in the -130's might be as high as -140
( just like you posted )
 
R

rjt721

EOG Master
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

Pickandwin2 said:
Tomorrow game will have little bearing on Wed. line.
Click to expand...
It's unlikely to, but potential injuries and the status of each teams' bullpen (i.e. Papelbon going 2 innings Tuesday and not being available the following day) would be factored into the line.
 
Pickandwin2

Pickandwin2

EOG Dedicated
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

rjt721 said:
It's unlikely to, but potential injuries and the status of each teams' bullpen (i.e. Papelbon going 2 innings Tuesday and not being available the following day) would be factored into the line.
Click to expand...


True as far as injuries, but the bullpen will have nothing to do with the Opening line. As the line will open before the game ( tues ) is over
 
R

rjt721

EOG Master
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

Pickandwin2 said:
the bullpen will have nothing to do with the Opening line. As the line will open before the game ( tues ) is over
Click to expand...
I don't think you're giving the oddsmakers enough credit here, particularly since there figures to be more action on this game than anything else on the board for Wednesday. In any case, we're only talking the difference of a few cents, if that.
 
Flamingo kid

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

This is the first time that the Rays are playing with expectations and knowing they are supposed to win. In years past, the Rays were able to play pressure free because no one expected them to do anything. Now, people are expecting them to keep winning.............and with that, comes pressure.

I don't know how to react to the Rays as the FAVORITE vs the team many consider the best in baseball.
 
A

Apple

Banned
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

Flamingo kid said:
This is the first time that the Rays are playing with expectations and knowing they are supposed to win. In years past, the Rays were able to play pressure free because no one expected them to do anything. Now, people are expecting them to keep winning.............and with that, comes pressure.

I don't know how to react to the Rays as the FAVORITE vs the team many consider the best in baseball.
Click to expand...

Yeah but this is Kazmir we're talking about..

TB 31-13 @ home
Bos 19-25 on road

Boston w/o Ortiz
 
raycabino

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

TB -135ish

edit: Will probably be a shade under-135 but that is what I think it should be.
 
raycabino

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

The Greek just opened Kazmir at -135 for those keeping score.12io4j2w90
 
R

rjt721

EOG Master
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

Rays opened -139 at Pinny. Congrats to raycabino on winning absolutely nothing. Your prize is in the mail.
 
A

Apple

Banned
Re: Matsuzaka v. Kazmir Wednesday - What's the line?

I'm waiting for the 5c line at 5Dimes to be this..
 
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