What happened to defense in the NFL?

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Overs go 10-2-1 this week vs the closing number.


:hangt:hangt:hangt



(Overs go 28-20 this week vs the closing number in the NCAA as well)


Is this a forecast of things to come? Are the numbers over adjusted for the new clock rules?


<-----------SCARED TO DEATH of unders right about now.

 

[THE SHRINK]

Re: What happened to defense in the NFL?

Can you please please please release all your plays BEFORE the games go off this weekend? :LMAO:LMAO:LMAO

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Re: What happened to defense in the NFL?

I did, I released over 550 Grand Salami, it cashed with two games to go I think. And a shrewd shopper would have went 11-2, getting that 47 1/2 on Saints. There are numerous reasons, but out of preseason normally the defenses are ahead of the curve while starting offense need a couple of games to get timing down. Then scoring numbers were held down by bad weather with Hurricane and tropical storm winds. So the perfect storm held everything down for the peak weeks. Numbers are ratcheting up now though. I used same angle to pick off a few game overs also, so when you are playing into a overall set of 11-2, it really increases your odds of cashing. The Grand Salami just reduces volatility.

Best Wishes...oF :cheers

 

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Re: What happened to defense in the NFL?

Free 13.8 units last week if you just played EVERY game over.

Lets see:

13.8 units
20,000 per unit (Kennys wager size)
______________

276,000 ........................................Looks like you would have made a little over a quarter of a million last week Shrink.


Maybe you should try it this week. :+clueless

 

[THE SHRINK]

Re: What happened to defense in the NFL?

Free 13.8 units last week if you just played EVERY game over.

Lets see:

13.8 units
20,000 per unit (Kennys wager size)
______________

276,000 ........................................Looks like you would have made a little over a quarter of a million last week Shrink.


Maybe you should try it this week. :+clueless

Why didn't I think of that Idea? 91023i2ndw;l

You are brilliant...:cheers

Just one small problem...

How do I go about getting 20k on College Totals? :+clueless

 

[raycabino]

Re: What happened to defense in the NFL?

My gut says it is just short samples more than anything else. Haven't seen any changes in the play of the game that would lead to this trend continuing going forward. There was a shitload of whacky 4Qs last week which lead to some of these. FWIW, 1stH overs only went 8-5, not bad but not the 10-2-1 they went for the whole game. If there is a big adjustment in the totals this week (which i don't think there will be) the unders could be worth a look.gl:cheers

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Re: What happened to defense in the NFL?

Bet several stores. You can load up on NCAA football totals, just takes a lot of outs. Phone your old pal BW, he can get any order down.

Best Wishes...OF op:

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Re: What happened to defense in the NFL?

My gut says it is just short samples more than anything else. Haven't seen any changes in the play of the game that would lead to this trend continuing going forward. There was a shitload of whacky 4Qs last week which lead to some of these. FWIW, 1stH overs only went 8-5, not bad but not the 10-2-1 they went for the whole game. If there is a big adjustment in the totals this week (which i don't think there will be) the unders could be worth a look.gl:cheers

My experience says different than your gut. Normally speaking weeks 3-5 are over weeks, especially with no bad weather. NFL. Last two weeks have had zero games with wind greater than 10 MPH. A strong breeze. The numbers are creeping up. Out of the entire sked next week 3 games are under 40. There is never a big adjustment in the NFL from week to week unless there is an injury. The lines creep. I think the Grand Salami has won by 80 points back to back. It has, I posted it both times.

Best Wishes...OF :cheers (Ray's donkey) hee haw

 

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Re: What happened to defense in the NFL?

My gut says it is just short samples more than anything else. Haven't seen any changes in the play of the game that would lead to this trend continuing going forward. There was a shitload of whacky 4Qs last week which lead to some of these. FWIW, 1stH overs only went 8-5, not bad but not the 10-2-1 they went for the whole game. If there is a big adjustment in the totals this week (which i don't think there will be) the unders could be worth a look.gl:cheers

Lets hope so. 75% of my totals plays are unders. Another high scoring fuck fest next week and I might have to come live with you in Vegas. :+textinb3

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Re: What happened to defense in the NFL?

Lets hope so. 75% of my totals plays are unders. Another high scoring fuck fest next week and I might have to come live with you in Vegas. :+textinb3

Don't play prime time games under. Don't play bad defenses under. I was always an under or nothing player. Those days are over. I prefer cashing.

Best Wishes...OF op:

 

[raycabino]

Re: What happened to defense in the NFL?

My experience says different than your gut. Normally speaking weeks 3-5 are over weeks, especially with no bad weather. NFL. Last two weeks have had zero games with wind greater than 10 MPH. A strong breeze. The numbers are creeping up. Out of the entire sked next week 3 games are under 40. There is never a big adjustment in the NFL from week to week unless there is an injury. The lines creep. I think the Grand Salami has won by 80 points back to back. It has, I posted it both times.

Best Wishes...OF :cheers (Ray's donkey) hee haw

Makes sense and you may be right. With the total adjustments I was referring to the market betting the overs (overreaction to this small skewed sample) as apposed to a big over adjustment in the openers. 4qs total results last week were 17,18,20,7,28,6,10,13,18,23,23,36,and 14. Probably the highest group of 4Q totals the NFL has ever seen. A lot of it was due to the big favs being down in some of these games and the dogs going into a coma in the 4Q. Long story short is I don't expect this outburst in scoring to continue. GL:cheers

 

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Re: What happened to defense in the NFL?

Makes sense and you may be right. With the total adjustments I was referring to the market betting the overs (overreaction to this small skewed sample) as apposed to a big over adjustment in the openers. 4qs total results last week were 17,18,20,7,28,6,10,13,18,23,23,36,and 14. Probably the highest group of 4Q totals the NFL has ever seen. A lot of it was due to the big favs being down in some of these games and the dogs going into a coma in the 4Q. Long story short is I don't expect this outburst in scoring to continue. GL:cheers

That is only 17.92 ppg 4Q average. :doh1 How is that even possible?

What a freaking retarded number. 2348ji23e

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Re: What happened to defense in the NFL?

What helped was the numbers being hung too low. The actual cover numbers are in my Grand Salami thread. Except for the Jet insanity, most of the overs were less than double digit covers, many less than 7. But instead of big favorites running out the clock you had a bunch of close games, but only one OT. Those close games contribute to higher scoring, see Pitt under that went over last night. But overall last couple of weeks have been statistical anomolies. Especially Charger 77 point and Jets 91 point games. Normally the highest game of the week might break 60, might. It is due to numerous factors all converging at once. To me, the Grand Salami was just a Grand Candy. It won't last. The only thing that will stay consistent is prime time overs and bad defenses. The numbers will rise, the weather will turn. The defenses will adjust, and the high scoring overall 4Q will not repeat.

Best Wishes...OF :cheers