buffettgambler
EOG Veteran
Sides
Steelers @ Bengals
Play: Bengals +9.5
It seems like the marketplace is no longer as easily fooled by last years aberration of double digit favorites covering spreads, as they quickly bid down the price off early open, when the spread was trading at double digit territory. Double digit dogs have covered all eight games this year, and despite the Bengals no longer selling in that range, in my opinion, there is value still being left on the table.
The Bengals season is over, there star quarterback is hurt, and the team has been accused of giving up on their coach. However, that is all being over factored in the price. What is not being factored is the notion the Bengals have played a quality schedule, has risen to the level of their competition, and has motivation for an upset against the hated Steelers. The Steelers offense is simply not good enough to warrant laying this many points on the road. This holds especially true with their biggest playmaker once against sidelined for this game. The Bengals have been hurt by big plays on the ground, but the median run allowed has been decent. This is advantageous with Parker sidelined and being replaced with a grinder. The Bengals should hold their own in the run game, and force Ben to beat them with his arm. Although Ben has his fair share of weapons to have the upper hand in this facet of the game, their lines inability to give him time and apparent rust in the passing game leaves a lot of be desired for this big of a favorite. The Bengals have held their own against some quality passing games already this year, and has had success against Ben in the past.
There is not much to get excited about when the Bengals have the ball. But fortunately, all they have to do is keep this within single digits. Fitzpatrick is getting more in sync with his receivers, and his ability to utilize the first level passing game is ideal against a blitzing defense that forces opposing offense to heavily rely on such. He also has better mobility than Palmer, which is also an idea tangible variable when facing a fast blitzing defense like the Steelers.
All the bad news on the Bengals is priced in the market. What does not appear to be is their ability to play top tier teams close, their difficulty of schedule that has hindered their record, and this being a rivalry game, which usually forced convergence in level of talent. I think the Bengals can keep this closer than the market thinks. I will close my eyes and take this 0-6 team.
Totals
Vikings @ Bears
Play: Under 38
In my opinion, there are a lot of fundamental variables favoring the Under in this game. The Vikings offense goes as far as their running game takes them. Ferrote is too mistake prone, lacks ideal consistency, and simply lacks the talented receivers to counter teams who are consistently stacking the box and making the Vikings run game less potent than it should be. Even one of the worst defenses in the league, the Lions, implemented such a strategy last week against the Viking with much success, as they were able to keep the Vikings out of the endzone the entire game. The Bears run defense is much improved this year, and have yet to allow a 100 yard running this year. Add extra motivation of wanting to avenge the domination Peterson put forth last year on their home field, and Petterson and the Vikings running game is primed for yet another underachieving game. However, playing against a defense known to capitalize on mistakes, expect the Vikings to be highly committed to the run and use Ferrote in the supplemental role. The result should be a performance very similar to last weeks game, with a lot of stalled drives that do not end in three and outs, but also do not end in points. The Vikings better drives should have a hard time ending with touchdowns as well. Scoring just 3 touchdowns in 15 red zone trips is not ideal when facing one of the better red zone defenses in the league. Their predictability is a detriment, but they simply lack the fundamentals to overcome it.
The Bears area also an offense heavily dependent on the running game and use their passing game as a supplement that feeds off the run. Going up against one of the best run defenses in the league is simply not ideal for this offense. However, Orton is not a quarterback that can lead a one dimensional passing game, and the Bears will be forced to stay heavily committed to the run no matter how unproductive it is. Much like the Vikings offense, I am expecting a lot of grind it out drives that are able to garnish some first downs but will not end in points. Again, much like the Vikings offense, the Bears offense is an inferior redzone offense, which leads me to believe some of the better drives will only end with field goals.
This has a smash mouth division game written all over it. Both defenses should lead the charge, while both offenses will be forced to be overly committed to running games that should struggle to find ground. The result should be field goal fest. I like the Under.
Colts @ Packers
Play: Under 47.5
One good game out of the Colts offense, and the market now think all is well with this big name offense. Usually premature conclusions lead to overvaluation in price. In my opinion, this is what appears to be happening with the high total set in Green Bay.
The Packers defense has not lived up to expectations so far this season, but do have the talent to play at the top tier level that was expected out of them at the beginning of the season. Their underachievement on defense has come from one facet, defending the run, as their pass defense is my opinion, still is one of the best in all of football. This bodes well for the Under, as this should kill all of the momentum Manning has been accumulating during the last six quarters of play. The Colts missing Addai will also depreciate the worth of their running game, and put them in a spot where they should have enough success on the ground to lean on the ground game, but not enough success to be detrimental to the Over. The Colts finesse receiving group has the propensity to struggle against physical corners and game plans that Packers bring to the table. Expect the Colts to find a little bit of success on the ground and in the air, but they simply are not top tier offense they have been the last few years.
Rogers is still a little banged up and has witnessed decreased productivity as defenses are getting more information that is allowing them to put forth game plans better suited to contend with his strengths. The Colts strength on defense is defending the pass, especially the type of passing game the Packers typically employ. Heavily dependent on the first and third level, the Colts Cover 2 and swarming ability is suited to counter such a game plan. Their lines improved ability to get to the quarterback should take advantage of the deprecation in pass protection the Packers have also been witnessing. Despite last week?s performance, the Colts are still highly vulnerable defending the run. This should encourage the Packers to run the ball as much as possible and prevent this game turning into a shootout that would put them at a disadvantage. Grant and his run blocking has been less than ideal all season. This should put him in the category of solid, but not dominating- a category quite complementary to the Under.
Both teams should find the most success on the ground this week. The result should be a lot more running that a Rogers/Manning game would indicate and a total set this high would lead one to believe. In my opinion, there is some value on the Under, and I will take it.
Jets @ Raiders
Play: Under 41
The Raiders offense is young, bad, and getting worse. Russell has shown no signs of improvement and is stalling what could be promising drives if the Raiders would be more committed to the running game. Sooner later, they will put him in a more supplemental role, and force him to be more dependable role which offers more conservative passes. This weeks game appears to be an ideal one to implement a structural change on offense so they can prevent this game getting away from them early and force Russell in a role where he has to play catch up. Expect the Raiders to run as much as possible, to shorten the game, and prevent the shootout that Favre would love this game to turn into. The Jets run defense is decent, but the Raiders should find enough success to prevent them from abandoning it or not being heavily committed to it. However, their running game is not good enough to run the show or make up for their passing games inefficiencies. The result should be more successful drives than the Raiders have been accustomed to of late. But that is a good thing, as it will prevent them from giving the opposition the ball quickly, often, and at good field position that has been adding risk to their Under plays.
Take that one high scoring game against the Cardinals off the table, and Favre and the Jets offense has not been anything special. He continues to be mistake prone, and should be forced into a role where he doesn?t have to be such, as the Jets will probably not need a lot of points to win this game. The Jets also don?t have the multiple passing weapons the Saints do, which will force them to have to attack Hall or Asomugha at a high rate of passing plays. The Jets running game has a slight advantage in this game. That is ideal for the Under, and should only encourage a more conservative game plan.
The expected structural change in the Raiders offense and the overated perception of the Jets offense and Brett Favre has created some hidden value on the Under in this game. I will take that value and place my bet on the Under.
Steelers @ Bengals
Play: Bengals +9.5
It seems like the marketplace is no longer as easily fooled by last years aberration of double digit favorites covering spreads, as they quickly bid down the price off early open, when the spread was trading at double digit territory. Double digit dogs have covered all eight games this year, and despite the Bengals no longer selling in that range, in my opinion, there is value still being left on the table.
The Bengals season is over, there star quarterback is hurt, and the team has been accused of giving up on their coach. However, that is all being over factored in the price. What is not being factored is the notion the Bengals have played a quality schedule, has risen to the level of their competition, and has motivation for an upset against the hated Steelers. The Steelers offense is simply not good enough to warrant laying this many points on the road. This holds especially true with their biggest playmaker once against sidelined for this game. The Bengals have been hurt by big plays on the ground, but the median run allowed has been decent. This is advantageous with Parker sidelined and being replaced with a grinder. The Bengals should hold their own in the run game, and force Ben to beat them with his arm. Although Ben has his fair share of weapons to have the upper hand in this facet of the game, their lines inability to give him time and apparent rust in the passing game leaves a lot of be desired for this big of a favorite. The Bengals have held their own against some quality passing games already this year, and has had success against Ben in the past.
There is not much to get excited about when the Bengals have the ball. But fortunately, all they have to do is keep this within single digits. Fitzpatrick is getting more in sync with his receivers, and his ability to utilize the first level passing game is ideal against a blitzing defense that forces opposing offense to heavily rely on such. He also has better mobility than Palmer, which is also an idea tangible variable when facing a fast blitzing defense like the Steelers.
All the bad news on the Bengals is priced in the market. What does not appear to be is their ability to play top tier teams close, their difficulty of schedule that has hindered their record, and this being a rivalry game, which usually forced convergence in level of talent. I think the Bengals can keep this closer than the market thinks. I will close my eyes and take this 0-6 team.
Totals
Vikings @ Bears
Play: Under 38
In my opinion, there are a lot of fundamental variables favoring the Under in this game. The Vikings offense goes as far as their running game takes them. Ferrote is too mistake prone, lacks ideal consistency, and simply lacks the talented receivers to counter teams who are consistently stacking the box and making the Vikings run game less potent than it should be. Even one of the worst defenses in the league, the Lions, implemented such a strategy last week against the Viking with much success, as they were able to keep the Vikings out of the endzone the entire game. The Bears run defense is much improved this year, and have yet to allow a 100 yard running this year. Add extra motivation of wanting to avenge the domination Peterson put forth last year on their home field, and Petterson and the Vikings running game is primed for yet another underachieving game. However, playing against a defense known to capitalize on mistakes, expect the Vikings to be highly committed to the run and use Ferrote in the supplemental role. The result should be a performance very similar to last weeks game, with a lot of stalled drives that do not end in three and outs, but also do not end in points. The Vikings better drives should have a hard time ending with touchdowns as well. Scoring just 3 touchdowns in 15 red zone trips is not ideal when facing one of the better red zone defenses in the league. Their predictability is a detriment, but they simply lack the fundamentals to overcome it.
The Bears area also an offense heavily dependent on the running game and use their passing game as a supplement that feeds off the run. Going up against one of the best run defenses in the league is simply not ideal for this offense. However, Orton is not a quarterback that can lead a one dimensional passing game, and the Bears will be forced to stay heavily committed to the run no matter how unproductive it is. Much like the Vikings offense, I am expecting a lot of grind it out drives that are able to garnish some first downs but will not end in points. Again, much like the Vikings offense, the Bears offense is an inferior redzone offense, which leads me to believe some of the better drives will only end with field goals.
This has a smash mouth division game written all over it. Both defenses should lead the charge, while both offenses will be forced to be overly committed to running games that should struggle to find ground. The result should be field goal fest. I like the Under.
Colts @ Packers
Play: Under 47.5
One good game out of the Colts offense, and the market now think all is well with this big name offense. Usually premature conclusions lead to overvaluation in price. In my opinion, this is what appears to be happening with the high total set in Green Bay.
The Packers defense has not lived up to expectations so far this season, but do have the talent to play at the top tier level that was expected out of them at the beginning of the season. Their underachievement on defense has come from one facet, defending the run, as their pass defense is my opinion, still is one of the best in all of football. This bodes well for the Under, as this should kill all of the momentum Manning has been accumulating during the last six quarters of play. The Colts missing Addai will also depreciate the worth of their running game, and put them in a spot where they should have enough success on the ground to lean on the ground game, but not enough success to be detrimental to the Over. The Colts finesse receiving group has the propensity to struggle against physical corners and game plans that Packers bring to the table. Expect the Colts to find a little bit of success on the ground and in the air, but they simply are not top tier offense they have been the last few years.
Rogers is still a little banged up and has witnessed decreased productivity as defenses are getting more information that is allowing them to put forth game plans better suited to contend with his strengths. The Colts strength on defense is defending the pass, especially the type of passing game the Packers typically employ. Heavily dependent on the first and third level, the Colts Cover 2 and swarming ability is suited to counter such a game plan. Their lines improved ability to get to the quarterback should take advantage of the deprecation in pass protection the Packers have also been witnessing. Despite last week?s performance, the Colts are still highly vulnerable defending the run. This should encourage the Packers to run the ball as much as possible and prevent this game turning into a shootout that would put them at a disadvantage. Grant and his run blocking has been less than ideal all season. This should put him in the category of solid, but not dominating- a category quite complementary to the Under.
Both teams should find the most success on the ground this week. The result should be a lot more running that a Rogers/Manning game would indicate and a total set this high would lead one to believe. In my opinion, there is some value on the Under, and I will take it.
Jets @ Raiders
Play: Under 41
The Raiders offense is young, bad, and getting worse. Russell has shown no signs of improvement and is stalling what could be promising drives if the Raiders would be more committed to the running game. Sooner later, they will put him in a more supplemental role, and force him to be more dependable role which offers more conservative passes. This weeks game appears to be an ideal one to implement a structural change on offense so they can prevent this game getting away from them early and force Russell in a role where he has to play catch up. Expect the Raiders to run as much as possible, to shorten the game, and prevent the shootout that Favre would love this game to turn into. The Jets run defense is decent, but the Raiders should find enough success to prevent them from abandoning it or not being heavily committed to it. However, their running game is not good enough to run the show or make up for their passing games inefficiencies. The result should be more successful drives than the Raiders have been accustomed to of late. But that is a good thing, as it will prevent them from giving the opposition the ball quickly, often, and at good field position that has been adding risk to their Under plays.
Take that one high scoring game against the Cardinals off the table, and Favre and the Jets offense has not been anything special. He continues to be mistake prone, and should be forced into a role where he doesn?t have to be such, as the Jets will probably not need a lot of points to win this game. The Jets also don?t have the multiple passing weapons the Saints do, which will force them to have to attack Hall or Asomugha at a high rate of passing plays. The Jets running game has a slight advantage in this game. That is ideal for the Under, and should only encourage a more conservative game plan.
The expected structural change in the Raiders offense and the overated perception of the Jets offense and Brett Favre has created some hidden value on the Under in this game. I will take that value and place my bet on the Under.
