NBA for opening week
- Thread starter ATX
- Start date
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
NY Knicks ML +550 for .3%
I am hoping for +11 for the spread. NY has played Cle 2x, Port, Det lately. ATL has played a lot of bottom feeders lately, and hasn't been winning convincingly. NY off an embarassing loss coupled with ATL shooting over 50% last game.
waiting on numbers for some others.
NY Knicks ML +550 for .3%
I am hoping for +11 for the spread. NY has played Cle 2x, Port, Det lately. ATL has played a lot of bottom feeders lately, and hasn't been winning convincingly. NY off an embarassing loss coupled with ATL shooting over 50% last game.
waiting on numbers for some others.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Gl today X, you're thinking the Lake-Show just running on empty in this 3rd away trip or that Wash has the D to keep it under.
Gl today X, you're thinking the Lake-Show just running on empty in this 3rd away trip or that Wash has the D to keep it under.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
not really running on empty, too deep and haven't played much of a schedule. typically being tired leads to overs. LA shot 58% last game, and right around 50% or over it since 11/21. All of them have gone over except for that first one vs Denver, and LA hasn't really been touched except for the Pacer game during that span. LA is one of those teams who is probably going to shoot very well all year so I discounted my stance a bit, but there is a strong angle on the first fact alone to go under and I feel better with this long string of high fg%'s compared to their road avg of about 47%. On the flip side Washington has also shot a little over their heads their last 2 games, they still managed to go under those 2. Seems likely one of the 2 regresses and has an off night, maybe both. On a Friday night, seems like it's more of a showtime type game and Washington probably has some motivation there. Previous meetings point toward the over. So discounted a bit for that last bit concluding the qualitative side of things. The public, as they will be on 99.99 percent of all Laker games from Adam&Eve thru eternity will be on the over.
Now for the number. If shooting percentages don't regress then I'll take the under just hoping for an 'average' night from them something between 197 and 204 home/away not taking into consideration team tendencies etc. just a very simple straight-line figure. Lakers have gone over this twice on the road all year, both times were in their last 2 games, none of the others were really that close to this total. Washington at home has gone over this total twice all year, once to NY, once to GS no surprise there, but somewhat surprising that none of their other home totals (when I say 'totals' I am referring to final scores in some contexts but I'm not going to go back and proofread this whole thing b/c then I will convince myself to put more on this and that is not going to happen I hope not) are close at all to this number. The last 6 LA games have gone over, and 8 out of 10, the number keeps going up with them. I liked LA to go under last game, but passed b/c I felt like LA might be in an over trend. The 'over' trend should stop sooner rather than later and tonight the number is good so I feel like there is quite a bit of cushion as well. I don't believe in Martingale type systems but the best way to explain it would be "if this one goes over I'll bet on the Milwaukee/LA under for a little more..." and not b/c this one loses but b/c if the number climbs on that game (if this one goes over) that game will have even more value (I'm not saying I will double up until LA goes under). The big picture: Yes it looks hard to take LA unders right now, but the median number if you look at the season as a whole makes this a better than 55% winner. I don't like betting against "SHOWTIME" so if I thought it was just a 55% number I would pass.
I'll beat you to the Clippers question...:cocktail
I like Memphis, but not sure how much. Yes Memphis is bad. WTF is the LAC? good? LAC=1and6 on the road, and the ONLY team they beat was OKC. "but the Clippers played well vs Dallas and Houston..." no they didn't. They lost a 2nd half lead... no they lost a 4q lead of 15 or more points at the Mavs to lose that game. I hate laying points on 2h's in the NBA but I was very close to laying -10.5 on the Mavs in that game. The Rockets shot 41% and were without Tracy McGrady so you know Houston had to lose that game...but they didn't b/c they were playing the Clippers. Giving a team 39 trips to the line vs 16 is the Clipper way.
not really running on empty, too deep and haven't played much of a schedule. typically being tired leads to overs. LA shot 58% last game, and right around 50% or over it since 11/21. All of them have gone over except for that first one vs Denver, and LA hasn't really been touched except for the Pacer game during that span. LA is one of those teams who is probably going to shoot very well all year so I discounted my stance a bit, but there is a strong angle on the first fact alone to go under and I feel better with this long string of high fg%'s compared to their road avg of about 47%. On the flip side Washington has also shot a little over their heads their last 2 games, they still managed to go under those 2. Seems likely one of the 2 regresses and has an off night, maybe both. On a Friday night, seems like it's more of a showtime type game and Washington probably has some motivation there. Previous meetings point toward the over. So discounted a bit for that last bit concluding the qualitative side of things. The public, as they will be on 99.99 percent of all Laker games from Adam&Eve thru eternity will be on the over.
Now for the number. If shooting percentages don't regress then I'll take the under just hoping for an 'average' night from them something between 197 and 204 home/away not taking into consideration team tendencies etc. just a very simple straight-line figure. Lakers have gone over this twice on the road all year, both times were in their last 2 games, none of the others were really that close to this total. Washington at home has gone over this total twice all year, once to NY, once to GS no surprise there, but somewhat surprising that none of their other home totals (when I say 'totals' I am referring to final scores in some contexts but I'm not going to go back and proofread this whole thing b/c then I will convince myself to put more on this and that is not going to happen I hope not) are close at all to this number. The last 6 LA games have gone over, and 8 out of 10, the number keeps going up with them. I liked LA to go under last game, but passed b/c I felt like LA might be in an over trend. The 'over' trend should stop sooner rather than later and tonight the number is good so I feel like there is quite a bit of cushion as well. I don't believe in Martingale type systems but the best way to explain it would be "if this one goes over I'll bet on the Milwaukee/LA under for a little more..." and not b/c this one loses but b/c if the number climbs on that game (if this one goes over) that game will have even more value (I'm not saying I will double up until LA goes under). The big picture: Yes it looks hard to take LA unders right now, but the median number if you look at the season as a whole makes this a better than 55% winner. I don't like betting against "SHOWTIME" so if I thought it was just a 55% number I would pass.
I'll beat you to the Clippers question...:cocktail
I like Memphis, but not sure how much. Yes Memphis is bad. WTF is the LAC? good? LAC=1and6 on the road, and the ONLY team they beat was OKC. "but the Clippers played well vs Dallas and Houston..." no they didn't. They lost a 2nd half lead... no they lost a 4q lead of 15 or more points at the Mavs to lose that game. I hate laying points on 2h's in the NBA but I was very close to laying -10.5 on the Mavs in that game. The Rockets shot 41% and were without Tracy McGrady so you know Houston had to lose that game...but they didn't b/c they were playing the Clippers. Giving a team 39 trips to the line vs 16 is the Clipper way.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
Memphis at +2 to -120 for .7%
too many questions for me to feel good about anything else.
lean to Jazz, but new coach for Tor
feel like Cleve is the right side but a lot of points and not getting on that train late
Nets prob right side but Min plays them close and I think NJ caught a lot of previously good teams in a slump on that road trip.
Charlotte/Mil lean to dog, but very hard game to get a strong opinion on.
Memphis at +2 to -120 for .7%
too many questions for me to feel good about anything else.
lean to Jazz, but new coach for Tor
feel like Cleve is the right side but a lot of points and not getting on that train late
Nets prob right side but Min plays them close and I think NJ caught a lot of previously good teams in a slump on that road trip.
Charlotte/Mil lean to dog, but very hard game to get a strong opinion on.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
With the new HC of Washington, the team may also play a different game, as well. I agree the Lakers will regress to a potentially lower shooting number, but each and every game they don't, brings that regression number up a point or two, I guess. The median number would tend to climb, and that is where you feel value will ultimately come from on the under bet. Thanks for the Clipper comments, as well.
With the new HC of Washington, the team may also play a different game, as well. I agree the Lakers will regress to a potentially lower shooting number, but each and every game they don't, brings that regression number up a point or two, I guess. The median number would tend to climb, and that is where you feel value will ultimately come from on the under bet. Thanks for the Clipper comments, as well.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Well done X.
Well done X.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
if I lose a game then I'm pissed. If I win then I didn't have enough on it. Either way, it's unacceptable. There is zero doubt I will make 15% in the NBA. If I don't make twice that then there's a problem. I will never chase, and 'they' will never break me. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger, and that is a terrible mantra for betting. Except I hate betting. Why any one bets? I'm an oppurtunist. Once I see that I can't have a better opinion on a sports game, then I follow. But I'll do better than that. You can't follow anyone in the sports market. Dr. Bob, yeah I think he knows what he's doing. I think he will win long term. But he had a losing year last year. WTF? nobody eats any more? I had a losing year in college football one year. I'm proud of it. I can now say that I lost. You know how unfathomable it is to lose? In the next 10 days I will probably destroy basketball. If history serves...
But if not, then I guess I'll just make it and more later on :hangt ?
yeah, that dude that I said Louisville +9 they run the ball well....I hope I didn't affect what you ended up with. I've extrememly wary because I've had the best NCAA football year landslide ever. But I've got some really good, really good angles that if followed every year, and I don't see it changing very soon b/c the LVSC knows how the money flows, will make you a LOT of money. It's a huge secret, I call it send me 100000 dollars and I'll tell you that if you bet the DOG and the POINTS ML, yeah you will still get drunk but with a little more happiness. But you might want to parlay OU and FLA in the meantime. 1.1% + .4%ML every bowl game. New Year's day bowls, look at the favorite, in 2008 you bet that on 90% of bowls and I'm not saying you will win, I'm saying that you will win every year, and if you don't...if you are playing at ****outs your money is gone anyways, if the books lose the bowls it's 3or4 decent sized shops are done. Most books win every year every sport, and all I'm gonna say is they will still win. They are playing with about +109. I would really like to end up with +105. I suffer from that illness caused by lack of sun. I grew up on the beach, when the sun goes down at or before 6pm I'm starting to get depressed. The next 5 days go something like 3-2 wins, a grind, I'm very ready to hit something heavy so that the grind doesn't matter. fwiw, I think this year's NBA is a lot more difficult than the last 5 years at least. That doesn't mean it's more difficult to win money. It just means there are fewer people to share it with. Sharps are killing it. A year ago I would have been betting that Charlotte game. After degrading myself for the entire wordage, it's now time to become a realist. I'm going to kill the NBA. I always have I always will. Kill? Ok, so you have a 401K? not me, whyTF would I invest in the stock market when I can invest in the sports market? you make 15% a segment in the NYSE? I probably pay more in taxes that a lot of Dellionaires... bad example, went to school, lived with the guy same dorm no I'm not gay or understand that shit either. But Michael Dell is good guy. Driven. You meet people like that (when you are young) you don't know that they are special, you think they are normal, you think...wow, this guy has got it together, "I can see that you can make a lot of money betting sports, but I think I can make a lot of money giving them computers..." no argument there, I asked him if he could make me a computer and he said no just kidding but could I get him some referrals if I just paid for parts. That fraternity that wouldn't take him, what a colossal f'up those guys were. So anyways, I will read this later probably a year from now when I'm losing at something or maybe I will never lose a game again, but the thing is, you are going to see maybe 10 public guys in all of the forums put together that will win in the NBA. The public can't beat the NBA, there are too many games and you have to know the numbers just enough. It's already thinned out. The NBA is the difference between winning and winning a lot. With this many games and the drawn out playoffs, this is what you want to beat. I love football. I beat football. But I may bet 275 football games a year pro and otherwise. There are over 80 games a year between all teams in the NBA. You read a couple articles about BW and the CG and you just know the good money is in baskets. I love when I lose. I don't think I lost tonight, but I lost 3 days in a row. I can't wait for that shit, I learn from losing streaks, the only thing you learn from winning streaks is that if you bet a favorite for the game, you lost. It's not about how many games or how much money you win, it's about how much you lose. You are going to lose, there will be times when you don't think it's possible to win. If you have an advantage and know simple BR mgmnt you will win and win a lot. The only reason you won't win is b/c the psychology gets to you. Impatience and greed. If you possess either, you are doomed. If you can't sit with a stack 1/10 of each of your table's 11 players at a poker game with a hunch that you are better than 3 of them then fold. With experience you know when you are probably going to lose. You want to win 60% of the time, have fun with -180 baseball. If you think something is 60%, risk 2% of your bankroll on it, hell yeah. If it wins, tell me. I'm just not seeing a whole lot of that shit. Since August I think I've seen maybe 10 bets that were worth over 2.0% of BR and I lost 2 of them, probably more, but I lost on aTm against Baylor and Orlando over Boston for sure. so what is my point? I don't have one. WTF is the point? I'm not here to convince anyone of anything that is counter-productive, the sports market would not exist without opinions. I'm here to prove my insanity. I came to the forums 15 years ago to figure out how people could lose. I'm still here at the forums to prove that it's impossible to lose. I suck at betting on sports, I just told this guy at a card room that Louisville might win SU (without looking at the game). Well, I figured it opened 10 for a reason this late and passed. Rutgers only covered by something like 5 tds. Point is, guy didn't care if I was Jimmy the Greek's dad, he wasn't going anywhere with that. He'll do OK, that is if he understands $Mgmnt. Do people get rich off their 401K in 10 years? How the hell do you think you can do better than that betting on sports? Do you scream and yell at the Wall Street Report on CNN? And ESPN? This is a tough year in the NBA, sharps are winning and the public is winning. LA, Cleve, Bos, overs. OU, Fla, Ala. Watch your ass with your off-color outs. The sharp books will get it all back and then some. The jokers will get raped in the short term by the bowl games. Support locals. Without them life sucks. They understand, they will cut deals, they just want to put more on the opposite. A good local will basically agree to part with 10% if they have a base that gives up an avg of 15% a week and can get down as much or more on a similar number. That is a friend. It's like, hey buddy I really like NY tonight, but you know it's the Knicks. Ok, I'll give you 11, but I'm not giving you a good ML. Cool, man I know the Knicks suck but it's a good number and I'd be surprised if the lose, and I know you want some action on the Lakers under. Cool, what you think the Lakers and Capitals do? not sure, but I think LA is playing the other Washington team, did you hear about that Chinese bud they found, supposedly it still has THC. How sure are you about the LA under? me? not very but I think it goes under, if not it goes over and we get the Brewers with a 7 point cushion. So you like the Brewers this year? I heard Sabathia was sitting out tonight, but I still like Green Bay this time of year. Man, I'm up to 214 the whole city is on LA and the over. How many your guys on the Knicks? Not a whole lot, I'm not really sided too much there, it's just the Lakers, Celtics, and Pistons and overs that hurt me sometimes. Give me 214 and take the Knicks. The Knicks suck. Yeah, they do, whyTF else would I be taking them? The hawks kinda suck too. No shit, WTfuck would I be telling you to bet them, ATL +10 vs Boston now -10 a couple weeks later?
This is the shipe I go through. I have my friends and they help me out b/c I help them out, but seriously, when you bet the Knicks do YOU really want to have to go through this shit. And that was a feeler bet. They have all these kitchen reality shows now. Any idea how much the reality on this game sells for? That concludes our meeting for the week. Life is good and goes on.
if I lose a game then I'm pissed. If I win then I didn't have enough on it. Either way, it's unacceptable. There is zero doubt I will make 15% in the NBA. If I don't make twice that then there's a problem. I will never chase, and 'they' will never break me. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger, and that is a terrible mantra for betting. Except I hate betting. Why any one bets? I'm an oppurtunist. Once I see that I can't have a better opinion on a sports game, then I follow. But I'll do better than that. You can't follow anyone in the sports market. Dr. Bob, yeah I think he knows what he's doing. I think he will win long term. But he had a losing year last year. WTF? nobody eats any more? I had a losing year in college football one year. I'm proud of it. I can now say that I lost. You know how unfathomable it is to lose? In the next 10 days I will probably destroy basketball. If history serves...
But if not, then I guess I'll just make it and more later on :hangt ?
yeah, that dude that I said Louisville +9 they run the ball well....I hope I didn't affect what you ended up with. I've extrememly wary because I've had the best NCAA football year landslide ever. But I've got some really good, really good angles that if followed every year, and I don't see it changing very soon b/c the LVSC knows how the money flows, will make you a LOT of money. It's a huge secret, I call it send me 100000 dollars and I'll tell you that if you bet the DOG and the POINTS ML, yeah you will still get drunk but with a little more happiness. But you might want to parlay OU and FLA in the meantime. 1.1% + .4%ML every bowl game. New Year's day bowls, look at the favorite, in 2008 you bet that on 90% of bowls and I'm not saying you will win, I'm saying that you will win every year, and if you don't...if you are playing at ****outs your money is gone anyways, if the books lose the bowls it's 3or4 decent sized shops are done. Most books win every year every sport, and all I'm gonna say is they will still win. They are playing with about +109. I would really like to end up with +105. I suffer from that illness caused by lack of sun. I grew up on the beach, when the sun goes down at or before 6pm I'm starting to get depressed. The next 5 days go something like 3-2 wins, a grind, I'm very ready to hit something heavy so that the grind doesn't matter. fwiw, I think this year's NBA is a lot more difficult than the last 5 years at least. That doesn't mean it's more difficult to win money. It just means there are fewer people to share it with. Sharps are killing it. A year ago I would have been betting that Charlotte game. After degrading myself for the entire wordage, it's now time to become a realist. I'm going to kill the NBA. I always have I always will. Kill? Ok, so you have a 401K? not me, whyTF would I invest in the stock market when I can invest in the sports market? you make 15% a segment in the NYSE? I probably pay more in taxes that a lot of Dellionaires... bad example, went to school, lived with the guy same dorm no I'm not gay or understand that shit either. But Michael Dell is good guy. Driven. You meet people like that (when you are young) you don't know that they are special, you think they are normal, you think...wow, this guy has got it together, "I can see that you can make a lot of money betting sports, but I think I can make a lot of money giving them computers..." no argument there, I asked him if he could make me a computer and he said no just kidding but could I get him some referrals if I just paid for parts. That fraternity that wouldn't take him, what a colossal f'up those guys were. So anyways, I will read this later probably a year from now when I'm losing at something or maybe I will never lose a game again, but the thing is, you are going to see maybe 10 public guys in all of the forums put together that will win in the NBA. The public can't beat the NBA, there are too many games and you have to know the numbers just enough. It's already thinned out. The NBA is the difference between winning and winning a lot. With this many games and the drawn out playoffs, this is what you want to beat. I love football. I beat football. But I may bet 275 football games a year pro and otherwise. There are over 80 games a year between all teams in the NBA. You read a couple articles about BW and the CG and you just know the good money is in baskets. I love when I lose. I don't think I lost tonight, but I lost 3 days in a row. I can't wait for that shit, I learn from losing streaks, the only thing you learn from winning streaks is that if you bet a favorite for the game, you lost. It's not about how many games or how much money you win, it's about how much you lose. You are going to lose, there will be times when you don't think it's possible to win. If you have an advantage and know simple BR mgmnt you will win and win a lot. The only reason you won't win is b/c the psychology gets to you. Impatience and greed. If you possess either, you are doomed. If you can't sit with a stack 1/10 of each of your table's 11 players at a poker game with a hunch that you are better than 3 of them then fold. With experience you know when you are probably going to lose. You want to win 60% of the time, have fun with -180 baseball. If you think something is 60%, risk 2% of your bankroll on it, hell yeah. If it wins, tell me. I'm just not seeing a whole lot of that shit. Since August I think I've seen maybe 10 bets that were worth over 2.0% of BR and I lost 2 of them, probably more, but I lost on aTm against Baylor and Orlando over Boston for sure. so what is my point? I don't have one. WTF is the point? I'm not here to convince anyone of anything that is counter-productive, the sports market would not exist without opinions. I'm here to prove my insanity. I came to the forums 15 years ago to figure out how people could lose. I'm still here at the forums to prove that it's impossible to lose. I suck at betting on sports, I just told this guy at a card room that Louisville might win SU (without looking at the game). Well, I figured it opened 10 for a reason this late and passed. Rutgers only covered by something like 5 tds. Point is, guy didn't care if I was Jimmy the Greek's dad, he wasn't going anywhere with that. He'll do OK, that is if he understands $Mgmnt. Do people get rich off their 401K in 10 years? How the hell do you think you can do better than that betting on sports? Do you scream and yell at the Wall Street Report on CNN? And ESPN? This is a tough year in the NBA, sharps are winning and the public is winning. LA, Cleve, Bos, overs. OU, Fla, Ala. Watch your ass with your off-color outs. The sharp books will get it all back and then some. The jokers will get raped in the short term by the bowl games. Support locals. Without them life sucks. They understand, they will cut deals, they just want to put more on the opposite. A good local will basically agree to part with 10% if they have a base that gives up an avg of 15% a week and can get down as much or more on a similar number. That is a friend. It's like, hey buddy I really like NY tonight, but you know it's the Knicks. Ok, I'll give you 11, but I'm not giving you a good ML. Cool, man I know the Knicks suck but it's a good number and I'd be surprised if the lose, and I know you want some action on the Lakers under. Cool, what you think the Lakers and Capitals do? not sure, but I think LA is playing the other Washington team, did you hear about that Chinese bud they found, supposedly it still has THC. How sure are you about the LA under? me? not very but I think it goes under, if not it goes over and we get the Brewers with a 7 point cushion. So you like the Brewers this year? I heard Sabathia was sitting out tonight, but I still like Green Bay this time of year. Man, I'm up to 214 the whole city is on LA and the over. How many your guys on the Knicks? Not a whole lot, I'm not really sided too much there, it's just the Lakers, Celtics, and Pistons and overs that hurt me sometimes. Give me 214 and take the Knicks. The Knicks suck. Yeah, they do, whyTF else would I be taking them? The hawks kinda suck too. No shit, WTfuck would I be telling you to bet them, ATL +10 vs Boston now -10 a couple weeks later?
This is the shipe I go through. I have my friends and they help me out b/c I help them out, but seriously, when you bet the Knicks do YOU really want to have to go through this shit. And that was a feeler bet. They have all these kitchen reality shows now. Any idea how much the reality on this game sells for? That concludes our meeting for the week. Life is good and goes on.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
on sat.
Washington +8.5 for 1.5%
I like it at for 1.1% at +7. washington sucks, and chicago? well, the bulls have won the last two, moral victories. I'd be surprised to see Chicago win. but at 325 or less it's only about 50 cents off. LOL. 50 cents off....Chicago has won a game or two by this number and the Bullets have lost a game or two by this number, but I'm just hoping this isn't one of those games or two. NOH is favored by a lot.
on sat.
Washington +8.5 for 1.5%
I like it at for 1.1% at +7. washington sucks, and chicago? well, the bulls have won the last two, moral victories. I'd be surprised to see Chicago win. but at 325 or less it's only about 50 cents off. LOL. 50 cents off....Chicago has won a game or two by this number and the Bullets have lost a game or two by this number, but I'm just hoping this isn't one of those games or two. NOH is favored by a lot.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Well, never have I read anything close to that, but all good X.
Well, never have I read anything close to that, but all good X.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
very perturbed that I didn't stick with Mil 13' which I figured was a little stronger than the Pacers, esp after it moved to 14. decided that it was a little dicey after the Wash debacle, and after looking at the first half realized that the 2h on Mil was probably the better percentage. I had the Bucks as 11 pt dogs, but it's tough to quantify a team such as LA at home after a big 4q letdown, road trip etc. That was a very strange first half and passed on the over and +5 on the 2nd.
And now I have to deal with the Clippers again, not sure why I continue to put myself in situations with this team. For all intents and purposes the line should be -5,-6 with a much higher probability of Orlando winning by more than less. This LAC team will screw you, and I'm not saying that the NBA is still fixed, and it would be really dumb to try to fix a game on the underdog side of the coin, but either way the LAC will fool you just when you think you understand the Clipper Way. Why take chances if you can beat the juice on over half the NBA schedule? That's what I'm thinking now. On the bright side, without looking at the exact percentages, games that open 4 or 5 have a fairly high probability of landing 4 or 5 such as Cha/Mil.
OKC/GS...GS has been far and away the worst team in the league since 11/21, but against fairly stout competition. OKC has been a cover machine during that span and still on a 7/8 ATS run. I have it close to pk, with motivational factors in the OKC corner. GS 7 (OT=pk) to OKC 1or2 as far as cover frequency vs the number (-3=push vs Minn) depending on the number that has moved quite a bit. I see it as a Washington/Washington State, OKC/MIN type game and almost always take the dog in the toilet bowls since it's difficult to argue that teams that rarely win should be favored over anyone, and a lot of times the teams that are lined as favorites aren't the true favorites or get add'l points b/c the books like to use that minus sign to make people think a team is a favorite. Player to watch: Cory Maggette, he's lighting it up behind the arc at a scorching 18% clip, there's that word again, his former team?? Actually he's probably out and Stephen Jackson will probably be out, getting an MRI, Jackson is a concern b/c he handles the ball. I may comeback the other way on this one too, it would be fairly dumb not to.
I really liked Charlotte, but I'm fairly sure that line isn't more like -5.5 b/c it's taking into consideration that Charlotte will most likely be missing both of their starting F's, Wallace and May. Funeral and tendons.
very perturbed that I didn't stick with Mil 13' which I figured was a little stronger than the Pacers, esp after it moved to 14. decided that it was a little dicey after the Wash debacle, and after looking at the first half realized that the 2h on Mil was probably the better percentage. I had the Bucks as 11 pt dogs, but it's tough to quantify a team such as LA at home after a big 4q letdown, road trip etc. That was a very strange first half and passed on the over and +5 on the 2nd.
And now I have to deal with the Clippers again, not sure why I continue to put myself in situations with this team. For all intents and purposes the line should be -5,-6 with a much higher probability of Orlando winning by more than less. This LAC team will screw you, and I'm not saying that the NBA is still fixed, and it would be really dumb to try to fix a game on the underdog side of the coin, but either way the LAC will fool you just when you think you understand the Clipper Way. Why take chances if you can beat the juice on over half the NBA schedule? That's what I'm thinking now. On the bright side, without looking at the exact percentages, games that open 4 or 5 have a fairly high probability of landing 4 or 5 such as Cha/Mil.
OKC/GS...GS has been far and away the worst team in the league since 11/21, but against fairly stout competition. OKC has been a cover machine during that span and still on a 7/8 ATS run. I have it close to pk, with motivational factors in the OKC corner. GS 7 (OT=pk) to OKC 1or2 as far as cover frequency vs the number (-3=push vs Minn) depending on the number that has moved quite a bit. I see it as a Washington/Washington State, OKC/MIN type game and almost always take the dog in the toilet bowls since it's difficult to argue that teams that rarely win should be favored over anyone, and a lot of times the teams that are lined as favorites aren't the true favorites or get add'l points b/c the books like to use that minus sign to make people think a team is a favorite. Player to watch: Cory Maggette, he's lighting it up behind the arc at a scorching 18% clip, there's that word again, his former team?? Actually he's probably out and Stephen Jackson will probably be out, getting an MRI, Jackson is a concern b/c he handles the ball. I may comeback the other way on this one too, it would be fairly dumb not to.
I really liked Charlotte, but I'm fairly sure that line isn't more like -5.5 b/c it's taking into consideration that Charlotte will most likely be missing both of their starting F's, Wallace and May. Funeral and tendons.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
The Clipership seems to be righting itself, a bit, and while I still hold little regard for Dunleavy, the players themselves seem concentrated and buying into his package. Baron is the leader, Baron is the only hope for a W now and then for this team. Clips appear to be turning the corner on those dreadful 12-16 point quarters that kill the ats many times this year-thats what I have keyed on, right or wrong, but if they get consistency, they are capable of playing with teams at Orlando's level.
The Clipership seems to be righting itself, a bit, and while I still hold little regard for Dunleavy, the players themselves seem concentrated and buying into his package. Baron is the leader, Baron is the only hope for a W now and then for this team. Clips appear to be turning the corner on those dreadful 12-16 point quarters that kill the ats many times this year-thats what I have keyed on, right or wrong, but if they get consistency, they are capable of playing with teams at Orlando's level.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
yes, Baron appears to be heating up, I'm still hoping that the ship is more like a canoe. I don't take road favorites very often...
the more I look at this game, the more it looks like I've got a weighted middle to the wrong side. Since I don't want to give myself a headache looking at NCAA baskets today and MNF looks like trash until the 2h, I decided to look for correlations within the chaos that is called Clippers:
LAC have 4 wins so far this year, none of them back to back. Last year, they won 4 in a row to begin the season, then only won back to back ONCE the entire rest of they year. The pattern for the year was pure Clipper, pretty much lose big, then win one out of nowhere, then lose even worse the game after the win. That was what must have drawn me to Orlando, remembering that pattern. How much of a correlation is there from last year's team to this one? Probably not a very big one, especially if you look at something such as the number on today's game. But I was interested to see why my impulse was to take the Magic even though the numbers suggested slight value to LA. Last year, after a win (disregarding the 4 W's straight to open), the Clippers must have lost the next game by an average of about 15 points. There were only 4 games (appx) in which they stayed within double digits following a win (6,5,2,7) disregarding the two game win streak and noting that even though the LAC won few games, they won a very small percentage on back to back nights (12/8 isn't a b2b for them). The bad news is that this year, there seems to be a more logical pattern to their futility. Crushed by Lakers then lose by 10 in OT (almost a W) then crushed by >20, and continue to get crushed until they narrow the gap to 9 vs. Houston then pull of the W 2 nights later vs Mavs. Now the pattern seems to change as instead of losing by 15+ they narrowly lose to Sacramento by 5 (they were favored by 8) then follow that up with another huge loss to another bottom 5 team, @ home to GS. They lost to SA by only 3 (they were favored, SA was w/o key starters) then they followed that up with a W at OKC. They only lost the next game by 1 to PHI, then they continued to get crushed until losing by only 1 to Denver, then won by 1 over Miami then lost by only 2 to Dallas. Loss, Loss then on a back to back and 4th in 5 days beat Minnesota. It looked like the Clippers were on a logical pattern briefly. But the pattern from last year (and years before) seems to have kicked back in. That pattern being no real pattern except win then get blown out.
yes, Baron appears to be heating up, I'm still hoping that the ship is more like a canoe. I don't take road favorites very often...
the more I look at this game, the more it looks like I've got a weighted middle to the wrong side. Since I don't want to give myself a headache looking at NCAA baskets today and MNF looks like trash until the 2h, I decided to look for correlations within the chaos that is called Clippers:
LAC have 4 wins so far this year, none of them back to back. Last year, they won 4 in a row to begin the season, then only won back to back ONCE the entire rest of they year. The pattern for the year was pure Clipper, pretty much lose big, then win one out of nowhere, then lose even worse the game after the win. That was what must have drawn me to Orlando, remembering that pattern. How much of a correlation is there from last year's team to this one? Probably not a very big one, especially if you look at something such as the number on today's game. But I was interested to see why my impulse was to take the Magic even though the numbers suggested slight value to LA. Last year, after a win (disregarding the 4 W's straight to open), the Clippers must have lost the next game by an average of about 15 points. There were only 4 games (appx) in which they stayed within double digits following a win (6,5,2,7) disregarding the two game win streak and noting that even though the LAC won few games, they won a very small percentage on back to back nights (12/8 isn't a b2b for them). The bad news is that this year, there seems to be a more logical pattern to their futility. Crushed by Lakers then lose by 10 in OT (almost a W) then crushed by >20, and continue to get crushed until they narrow the gap to 9 vs. Houston then pull of the W 2 nights later vs Mavs. Now the pattern seems to change as instead of losing by 15+ they narrowly lose to Sacramento by 5 (they were favored by 8) then follow that up with another huge loss to another bottom 5 team, @ home to GS. They lost to SA by only 3 (they were favored, SA was w/o key starters) then they followed that up with a W at OKC. They only lost the next game by 1 to PHI, then they continued to get crushed until losing by only 1 to Denver, then won by 1 over Miami then lost by only 2 to Dallas. Loss, Loss then on a back to back and 4th in 5 days beat Minnesota. It looked like the Clippers were on a logical pattern briefly. But the pattern from last year (and years before) seems to have kicked back in. That pattern being no real pattern except win then get blown out.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
Charlotte +8.5 for .6%
ML +325 for .1%
Charlotte has been a dog of more than this # once, and that was to Cleveland a team deserving it, and that they don't match up well against. Charlotte has lost once on the road by 9 or more to the Cavs. Miami has been a favorite by more than this number once at home and that was in their previous game, a win vs OKC by 6. Charlotte has won 6 of the last 7 SU. Something about this line smells and Bob may have personnel issues so discounted for that as well as the fact that Charlotte has had 2 days less than Miami to play their last 10 games.
Charlotte +8.5 for .6%
ML +325 for .1%
Charlotte has been a dog of more than this # once, and that was to Cleveland a team deserving it, and that they don't match up well against. Charlotte has lost once on the road by 9 or more to the Cavs. Miami has been a favorite by more than this number once at home and that was in their previous game, a win vs OKC by 6. Charlotte has won 6 of the last 7 SU. Something about this line smells and Bob may have personnel issues so discounted for that as well as the fact that Charlotte has had 2 days less than Miami to play their last 10 games.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Clippers continue to find ways to go cold in a Q, tonight a few. I have no explanation for it, as the players have been different over the years of Dunleavy, so you know who I think is responsible for their poor Q's. Nothing I can find or relate.
Clippers continue to find ways to go cold in a Q, tonight a few. I have no explanation for it, as the players have been different over the years of Dunleavy, so you know who I think is responsible for their poor Q's. Nothing I can find or relate.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I'm not sure the Clippers, the players, they even care. Maybe one or two try to care at the start of the season, but the rest of the team cut that caring cancer from the rest of the team before it spreads. I may be wrong, but I say that Baron is trash. He's a paycheck guy. I am basing this on basically nothing, but he seems to want to hang out on the west coast, doesn't care about rings. Why else would choose the LAC? He's always plenty fat come October, doesn't seem to be in too big of a hurry to rejoin the team after injuries. Nice 2-22 run to start the 4th by the Clips.
Mavs hopefully +2.
I'm not sure the Clippers, the players, they even care. Maybe one or two try to care at the start of the season, but the rest of the team cut that caring cancer from the rest of the team before it spreads. I may be wrong, but I say that Baron is trash. He's a paycheck guy. I am basing this on basically nothing, but he seems to want to hang out on the west coast, doesn't care about rings. Why else would choose the LAC? He's always plenty fat come October, doesn't seem to be in too big of a hurry to rejoin the team after injuries. Nice 2-22 run to start the 4th by the Clips.
Mavs hopefully +2.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
GL today.
GL today.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
thanks. I'm not going to rant about how 'if history serves, today should be a loser...' but the numbers have been really coming in lately, so I wouldn't be surprised to hit a speed bump today. Dogs have been coming in litters, so wouldn't be surprised to see some favorites cover today. Mavs are my best bet as SA shot 55% last game and public has pushed the number. Also like Port/Orl to go under, but not liking the Pinnacle lean there (or with Detroit under) and not sure I'll take ORL without 6. Got Detroit under at 195, was a close decision between that and Wash team total under. Hopefully, a couple of 2nd halves.
thanks. I'm not going to rant about how 'if history serves, today should be a loser...' but the numbers have been really coming in lately, so I wouldn't be surprised to hit a speed bump today. Dogs have been coming in litters, so wouldn't be surprised to see some favorites cover today. Mavs are my best bet as SA shot 55% last game and public has pushed the number. Also like Port/Orl to go under, but not liking the Pinnacle lean there (or with Detroit under) and not sure I'll take ORL without 6. Got Detroit under at 195, was a close decision between that and Wash team total under. Hopefully, a couple of 2nd halves.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I like to take teams with new coaches mid-season as they provide a spark, but even though the Jazz are typically bad on the road I'm not sure how much of a spark McHale provides as what I heard is that it was pretty public that he didn't really want to step in as coach. I think OKC gets the win tomorrow, been watching that pup grow since the line came out...
I like to take teams with new coaches mid-season as they provide a spark, but even though the Jazz are typically bad on the road I'm not sure how much of a spark McHale provides as what I heard is that it was pretty public that he didn't really want to step in as coach. I think OKC gets the win tomorrow, been watching that pup grow since the line came out...