Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Its that time of year again, bowl season and final exams! Still up and just saw where the lines came out for some bowls. I gotta say, either Vegas knows something I dont or a am going to rack up to end the year....
Penn St +11 - I cant believe this. Penn could win this ouright. I know the Trojan D is great but giving 11?!?! Just dont understand it, this will be a BIG play, maybe my biggest.
V Tech +3 - Cincy had a great comeback last week and they have the better record. But V Tech is more talented in my opinion. Tyrod Taylor should have a good game and imo lead the hokie birds to a win. This will be a pretty big play as well, will definitely hit the moneyline. Big East isnt that good, neither is ACC but V Tech wins this outright.
BAMA -10 - Boise was the exception for these non bcs schools. Utah is a great team, and this will be a great game. Probably the most senseable line by far for the 6 or so games that are out. I think UTAH has enough plays and plays enough D to keep this within a TD. But, Bama will run, and run, and run and wear them down. Tide probably wins by 17 to 21. WAC atheletes cannot compete with SEC speed and especially SEC strength. Tide swamps this one in the trenches.
TEXAS -9.5 -This is a statement game, probably for both teams but mainly for Texas. Should have been in the title game in alot of people's eyes. The Horns will dominate and prove once again that Ohio St has no business in the big games. We can ask the past 2 title games and USC and Penn St (although it was close) about that this year. Texas D makes LOTS of plays on Pryor and easily covers this spread.
FLORIDA -2.5 - Another decent line. Both Offenses are abolutely sick. OU's streak of 60 points is quite impressive. The Gators have done their share of scoring as well. I think Bradford may have an edge in this one even though Tebow is more diverse. But, the game here is defense, defense, defense. If Okie state scored 40 something, Texas 35, and even Mizzou with 21, you can bet the Gators will rack up probably 6 td's in this one. The Gators D is for real. OU will score but i think Gators win by 10. Another solid play in my book.

As for this big games, its the best looking card i have seen this whole year. I think this could be my biggest week. But, with that said, who knows how these teams will react in this situation and especially after alot of time off. I just hope the smaller bowls have as intriguing lines as these. Hoping for the best. Now, I will finally sleep before finals tomorrow!
 
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Good write-ups Bama......I think I have to agree with you on most of these, except Penn State. Big 10 teams don't fare too well in the Rose Bowl vs. USC when Carroll has a month to prepare. I think USC blows them out, but I haven't been right about anything lately! Best of luck to you on your plays.:cheers
 

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Double J - Thanks for the input man. I havent really thought about Carrolls dominance so that input helps. I am still playing it hard, but may not be a top play...

Blondie - Thank for the compliments...

On a side note, nothing towards you two, well, maybe Blondie, but some of your avators trip me out. Hilarious stuff...

One more note as I am still up studying for finals at 7am, this adderall is amazing stuff. I went ahead and put a very small amount on a parlay of these games above while moving the lines some... here is how it came out....

Parlay-----
Penn St +12.5
V Tech +3.5
Bama -8.5
Texas -8.5
Florida -1.5

I have hit one of these big ones this year so maybe this one will as well. It looks good, but im sure one of these teams will screw it up for me. I wish I could have moved these lines a little more but went ahead and played it with the anticipation of these things moving against me. Now, back to the books!
 

LaxDevil

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Yeah, I think USC rolls here. PSU has not faced a D like this. It will come down to how Clark can handle himself in the pocket under pressure.
 

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

I got them all at bookmaker around 9pm last night. The V Tech line is moving quick, I think thy are now only +1. The rest are still within a half point.:cheers
 
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Never saw them at those prices at Bookmaker. Lowest I saw Bama was -10.5 and lowest at -10 for Ohio St.

GL if you got those there.
 

karmaisreal

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Thanks for the early picks Bamaguy. The only ones that surprise me so much is how high you are on Penn State and how low you are on Ohio State. As a Buckeye fan, I actually agree 100% with your Texas play. The one thing I know is that Penn State & Ohio State are VERY comparable teams. If you watched that whole game, you would know that game could have gone either way.

Hope you are right on Penn State, but I just don't see it against USC. Penn State's offense will struggle big time with USC.

Obviously just opinions...hope you take no offense by them. You have had a great year - thanks much for everything.
 

lvmike32

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Bama, I actually like your Penn St a lot and I see it's down to 10 now. USC simply has not been good on offense all year and their win vs. UCLA was totally unimpressive (i.e. not peeking at all on offense) - I don't know what it is (likely youth) but that offense just doesn't click considering the 3 and outs and field position the defense normally gets them - they have almost zero pressure as usually they only have to score 14 points to win a game - and I think the Pac 10 was god awful this year (and I do discount USC's offensive performance vs Wash and Wash St, two of the worst teams in CF). I also put a little stock in that Penn St beat OSU huge and OSU beat USC - not really sure if Penn St hasn't imporved more since those games. I think PSU will run up the gut on USC and loosen up those backers and open up play action - OSU showed you could do it as did Stanford. And Penn St defense is as good as any other in the Pac 10 with exception to USC so I don't see USC marching up and down the field on them. Normally betting against USC in the Rose Bowl is suicide but I don't think so this year. USC is missing some intangible this year on offense - I'm pretty much a casual fan if you will and I can't name a player on offense for them except Sanchez - been many years since that has been the case. Too many points. I can easily see PSU winning this game SU. Worth a normal bet to me and a little on the ML.

Rest I just don't know. Worry about Bama's mind set, Texas as well. I won a futures bet on VTech winning their ACC Division but what a miracle - watching that team this year was painful - I give the coaching edge to Cincy in this one - not a fan of Beamer's play calling. don't think I would bet any of the others. No idea on Fla/Ok - if Ok is getting that top stud DE back and LB Reynolds (no idea on their status), I'd lean Ok. without them, no way - just watch and enjoy game.

GL
 

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Penn st wont be my biggest play anymore, just since so many people I respect are against them. This is almost a bet against USC than for Penn, I know, sounds crazy in the Rose Bowl. The pac-10 is weak, i dont see the big 10 as that solid weither but, like the Florida/OU game, I think Defense is the difference. USC is a stud on defense but their offense is lacking this year. I look for Penn's D to really keep this close and atleast keep the from covering if not winning. This is just a big gut game for me.

In every other year I would worry about Bama's mindset, they are known to be awful with it and I hate betting them. This year is different, Bama shows up every week and gets it done minus last week which was nearly impossible to begin with. More than that though, its once again defense and the trenches. Utah is a good club, but if Bama helf the Gators to 31 what will utah get? 10-14? maybe 17? I also look for that veteran O-Line to go out with a bang. They will blow Utah off the ball the whole game. Coffee may rush for 150-200 in this one. On a side note, I thought Saban was gonna cry after the SEC champ. Seems to really care about the players being winners which is something I didnt know he was so passionate about.

I dont like tOSU against that Horn defense. Pryor is good, but if I remember correctly, Penn shut it down easily. USC dang sure did but I dont think Pryor was at the helm then. Texas should be in the title game and they are going to prove it. tOSU has got to prove to me that they can play in a big game, and so far they havent.

As for Cincy, they are good, but Hawaii stuck it to them. I think this game will be really close, but like VT by a couple. Should be fun to watch the most unimpressive BCS game ever.

I hope this gives you a little more insight of where Im coming from. I want to blow it open during bowl season, hopefully pay for Christmas which would be sweet. Thanks for all the compliments, and as always, opinions are welcomed!
 

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Im gonna watch line movements some more but have a couple games i lean heavy to and wanna get some opinions...

Okie St -3.5 agaisnt Oregon
BC -4 against Vandy
Maryland +1 against Nevada
Buffalo +5 against connecticut

There are a few others but i lean heavy towards these. What do you guys think?
 

hutch15

EOG Senior Member
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

I like the Maryland play... What do you think about WVU as a pickem? Pat White's last game and they have played well the last few years in the bowls...
 

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

That game looks interesting. The problem I have is I feel that WV plays below their potential alot. On the other hand, I dont know what has happened to NC. They were on a roll, then got dominated by nc st and havent been the same since. I would lean slightly to NC. Would be interesting to see what Junk, Pags, Noob, or Gyno think about some of these. They have been very solid this year.
 

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Line is moving so bought a little and got Okie St -3. Just think they handle Oregon in a high scoring shoot out.
 

'EERfan

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Not that I am by any means a good handicapper, but many seem to only be talking about USC and Carroll. I really think that if you give Paterno a month to prep, he can beat anyone. It won't be a big play for me, But I like Penn St +.
 

hutch15

EOG Senior Member
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

The problem I have with Penn St. is that when Darrell Clark gets pressured he has problems. Iowa, first half vs. Mich, and even tosu and all of these teams have no pass rush comparable to USC. I look at previous bowl games and how coaches call plays and every year USC turns up the heat. I haven't made up my mind but I just think USC is to damn good for PSU.
 

choslamshe

EOG Master
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Bamaguy;

Solid writeups...you could not be more bang on about the OKL/FLO game!! The oklahoma offense is by far the most exciting to watch, however if there's one thing i've noticed, especially during this little run of 60 points, its that their defence plays the first couple series with intensity, and then the rest of the game is almost like they just know their offense will score next possession anyways.

I love FLO to cover in this game!!! Florida's d will limit OK to less than or maximum 40 points in this magnitude of a game, and Florida should easily eclipse this mark. This game should see (imo) a total flip of what Oklahoma's has endured the last few weeks. They will hang with Flo...probably trade scores for the first half and a bit, but FLO will come up with some Defensive plays that past d's have not been able to against Okie, and this will be the difference.

This is my favourite play of the year...i expected flo to be favoured by a TD in which case i still woulda jumped on it.

Good luck to all...some very interesting/enticing bowl matchups
 
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

I like the maryland and buff games. Watch out for the BC game. Not sure if they will have their starting qb back, but that freshman looked HORRRRRIBLE in the ACC champ game. He looked like a boy amongst men. IMO

BoL to All.........
 

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Didnt know about the BC QB. I didnt pay any attention to the ACC championship other than the outcome. Vandy is just really bad, talk about a bad bad offense. I also am starting to like Florida State alot, but I will wait and see if the line will drop some for me.
 

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

As much as I would like the SEC to sweep the bowl games, I am really liking Ga Tech. LSU is falling apart, I had them at 8-5 this year and everyone I know told me I was a dumbass. Needless to say, they dont have the same opinion anymore. On a side note, Les Miles may get on the hot seat in the next couple of years, wouldnt surprise me a bit.

As for the SEC, really need ole miss and florida to pull through, simply because of the big 12 vs sec argument. We shall see what will happen.
 
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Im a miss state alum and hate to go against the SEC, but Ole miss has one of the worst pass Ds around. Im thinking that Tech will have a field day with them. Now Florida on the other hand is going to show the Big 12 what SEC ball is all about.

Im gonna look at the under in the BC/Vandy game myself.

Im liking that bama and the GT lines too 91023i2ndw;l
 
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Not that I am by any means a good handicapper, but many seem to only be talking about USC and Carroll. I really think that if you give Paterno a month to prep, he can beat anyone. It won't be a big play for me, But I like Penn St +.
24-10 bowl record including many underdog/upset victories against the "superior" opponent
penn state loses a bowl game about once every 4 years
 

Apple

Banned
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

This is a great thread, lots of info here.. Great job this season dude, hope all is well..
 

m1goblu

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Bama, On Tex & Fla w you.Tex- i think they will want to show they should have been the team in the Big 12 game & of course the Champ game. Fla has the better D. That should be the ifference. On the other hand, Penn St hasnt been tested at all. I see all the Big 10 games & dont think they stand a chance on the road against USC. Look what happened in the only tough road game at Iowa. Whatever you decide BOL.... Just my 2 cents...
 
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

usually I'd worry about bama's mindset in this spot
somewhat disappointing playing a "nobody" after being number one for several weeks
but for saban
 

Cloverleaf

EOG Dedicated
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Hell of a thread.

Goddamn BamaGuy.....we thought you were that Bama boy who has been
crying in the downunder.

Someone, playing cards and not sure who brought up the Tide not being ready.
Respect for Utah....BUT BAMA WILL BE GODDAMN READY!!!
 

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Wow, havent been on in a few days and looks like I have alot to respond to. First, some good news that has nothing to do with football. Finals are over! Secondly, took a short drive across the state line 2 days ago and saw snow everywhere! Havent seen that much sincee the big 93 storm! Anyways, I guess football, weather, cars, and women tend to crank me up... on to football...

Ok. WHAT IN THE HELL IS AUBURN THINKING??? Dont get me wrong, it makes me thrilled, but Chizzik?(sp?) The guy is 5-19! Are they just trying to let bama break that all time win streak of 9 strait? I just cant believe they dropped Tubbs for this guy.

MPHSSTRENGTH -Very good point about the ole miss pass D. Texas Tech has a hell of an offense but are the D's they have been playing against all year any better than Ole Miss? I havent played this one yet, still looking at some things but thanks for the input!

SPARTACUS - Hope we are right about Penn St, its just one of those gut feelings and although Penn hasnt played anyone, neither has USC. I think overall Penn is slightly more impressive in my book.

GYNO - Thanks bud! Heard you had a birthday, hope it was a great one!

M1GOBLU - THanks for the input as well! Seems like most are against me with Penn St. I have already played them though so I will hope for the best!

PAGS - Thanks man! You have helped me alot this year. Ill be looking forward to your bowl plays!

CLOVER - Sometimes I dont know what the hell you are talking about man! I do agree with you about bama being ready. Saban looked ready to have a breakdown after the game he was so pissed. Enjoy the cards and beer!

Also, I have made one more play. I am normally not a totals guy but Nood ponted this one out and I had to take it...
Rutgers/NC St Over 52-----4*
Couldnt resist this. These two are hot as hell and it should be an offensive showdown. I think this total will be covered before the 4th quarter!

Looking forward to this bowl season, Would love to pay for all of Christmas with this! Anyone have any input on the early bowl games? I have some leans but nothing just jumps out at me on the first few days...
 

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Penn st +11-----5*
VT +3----3*
VT ml110----2*
Alabama -10----3*
Texas -9.5-----5*
Florida -2.5----5*
Okie St -3----4*
NCST/RUT O52-----4*

I also have a bcs parlay for fun. The only game I added was the VT ml, I just wanted to get everything organized so I can keep track of it better. I will be adding alot more plays and adding some units to alot of plays as well. Florida might be my biggest play this year by the time its said and done.
 
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

hahah good idea.. at first i was all over PSU then kept on thinken about it and i can just see USC dominating the hole game like they do so often..

BOL this bowl season & thanks for the pics


:cheers

Penn st wont be my biggest play anymore, just since so many people I respect are against them. This is almost a bet against USC than for Penn, I know, sounds crazy in the Rose Bowl. The pac-10 is weak, i dont see the big 10 as that solid weither but, like the Florida/OU game, I think Defense is the difference. USC is a stud on defense but their offense is lacking this year. I look for Penn's D to really keep this close and atleast keep the from covering if not winning. This is just a big gut game for me.

In every other year I would worry about Bama's mindset, they are known to be awful with it and I hate betting them. This year is different, Bama shows up every week and gets it done minus last week which was nearly impossible to begin with. More than that though, its once again defense and the trenches. Utah is a good club, but if Bama helf the Gators to 31 what will utah get? 10-14? maybe 17? I also look for that veteran O-Line to go out with a bang. They will blow Utah off the ball the whole game. Coffee may rush for 150-200 in this one. On a side note, I thought Saban was gonna cry after the SEC champ. Seems to really care about the players being winners which is something I didnt know he was so passionate about.

I dont like tOSU against that Horn defense. Pryor is good, but if I remember correctly, Penn shut it down easily. USC dang sure did but I dont think Pryor was at the helm then. Texas should be in the title game and they are going to prove it. tOSU has got to prove to me that they can play in a big game, and so far they havent.

As for Cincy, they are good, but Hawaii stuck it to them. I think this game will be really close, but like VT by a couple. Should be fun to watch the most unimpressive BCS game ever.

I hope this gives you a little more insight of where Im coming from. I want to blow it open during bowl season, hopefully pay for Christmas which would be sweet. Thanks for all the compliments, and as always, opinions are welcomed!
 

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy's Bowl Season Picks

Bama wishes he would have played the first 4 bowl games, would have been 3-1, but that doesnt really matter. Tonights first play.... TCU -3. I am torn on this game, I do like tcu because the public is all over boise and alot of people i respect are on tcu, therefore it will be my first bowl play, for 3 units.
 
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