NBA for opening week
- Thread starter ATX
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EOG Master
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
linear move to -5.5 by a group, but fairly sure not BW. Looked like they were pushing the number to get 6 so they could come back the other way. 4 of my outs got to 6, got the # at 3 of them before it moved, otherwise I would have been ok with going about 1.5% (all 4). I would have laid a little off at -4/4' b/c this is the time of year when middles HIT (half a season of numbers and before teams QUIT) plus it's the damn Clippers. But the middle opp would have been more risk diversification than middling. I'm comfortable with 1.4% (including ML) or less on the LAC in this spot, I wouldn't be too comfortable with more than 1.8% (4 shops at the +6 instead of 3) in which case I would have bought back some on Memphis into a slightly +EV situation. Numerically sharp? Not optimally. Psychologically nutritious? Yes. Otherwise notated and abbreviated by (The life of) Memphis -5.
linear move to -5.5 by a group, but fairly sure not BW. Looked like they were pushing the number to get 6 so they could come back the other way. 4 of my outs got to 6, got the # at 3 of them before it moved, otherwise I would have been ok with going about 1.5% (all 4). I would have laid a little off at -4/4' b/c this is the time of year when middles HIT (half a season of numbers and before teams QUIT) plus it's the damn Clippers. But the middle opp would have been more risk diversification than middling. I'm comfortable with 1.4% (including ML) or less on the LAC in this spot, I wouldn't be too comfortable with more than 1.8% (4 shops at the +6 instead of 3) in which case I would have bought back some on Memphis into a slightly +EV situation. Numerically sharp? Not optimally. Psychologically nutritious? Yes. Otherwise notated and abbreviated by (The life of) Memphis -5.
Toronto Raptors Injuries
F
Chris Bosh
knee
OUT
is OUT Friday vs New Orleans.
Players listed as Probable
02/05
G
Jose Calderon
hamstring
Probable
missed last game, is upgraded to probable Friday vs New Orleans.
Players listed as OUT
01/21
F
Kris Humphries
shin
OUT
is out indefinitely.
Chris Bosh
knee
OUT
is OUT Friday vs New Orleans.
Players listed as Probable
02/05
G
Jose Calderon
hamstring
Probable
missed last game, is upgraded to probable Friday vs New Orleans.
Players listed as OUT
01/21
F
Kris Humphries
shin
OUT
is out indefinitely.
New Orleans Hornets Injuries
G
Chris Paul
groin
OUT
missed last game, is OUT Friday vs Toronto.
Players listed as OUT
01/30
GF
Morris Peterson
foot
OUT
is expected to miss 1-2 weeks.
01/21
C
Tyson Chandler
ankle
OUT
is out indefinitely.
I'm almost definitely on New Orleans. Toronto is garbage, especially on the road. I don't watch the games but from what I can tell Hornets seemed to play better in the 2nd half. Takes a few reps to get used to an absence as big as Paul. Public is on Toronto even after the light opening # and after a 2point move.
Phoenix is the right side. GS will look about the same as they did playing @DAL, @HOU, @Port, or @LA. It's the way the home and home series work. Public almost always backs the team that won the previous game in the 2nd, and that's the case here by a large margin.
I like Indiana. They play well at home. And I'm getting 7 now...
Chris Paul
groin
OUT
missed last game, is OUT Friday vs Toronto.
Players listed as OUT
01/30
GF
Morris Peterson
foot
OUT
is expected to miss 1-2 weeks.
01/21
C
Tyson Chandler
ankle
OUT
is out indefinitely.
I'm almost definitely on New Orleans. Toronto is garbage, especially on the road. I don't watch the games but from what I can tell Hornets seemed to play better in the 2nd half. Takes a few reps to get used to an absence as big as Paul. Public is on Toronto even after the light opening # and after a 2point move.
Phoenix is the right side. GS will look about the same as they did playing @DAL, @HOU, @Port, or @LA. It's the way the home and home series work. Public almost always backs the team that won the previous game in the 2nd, and that's the case here by a large margin.
I like Indiana. They play well at home. And I'm getting 7 now...
Re: NBA for opening week
Thanks ATX, gonna back a few of those plays just not sure which ones yet.
Thanks ATX, gonna back a few of those plays just not sure which ones yet.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
numbers have moved but I'd say Charlotte right now. there were +1's out there, and I have -2. I've been debating putting a little more on them, but decided no reason to press...I should have 2-3 2nd halves and they are heating up. system plays that work every year. public is on ATL and when the public backs a dog the favorite is a good bet.
Indiana about the same. I watched it climb all day. Hit the 7 and ML then watched it tumble. Pacers have notable home battles vs Lakers, Boston etc. Magi shot over 55% last game, plus played the Clippers and hopefully the step up in comp adds a little to the 58% expected win rate I see with 7 (maybe 56.5 at 6).
Clippers. every dog has its fleas and I'm not a dog but they are and they certainly have fleas, mange, rabies, probably some HIV on that squad. But they are playing a team amidst an outbreak of Ebola. I see this as similar to the OKC game the Clippers won. It's tough to predict how LAC will compete but I see this as a 3 point game either way a high percentage of the time.
Phoenix -10 +100 for .8%
more likely they win by 20 than by 9.
numbers have moved but I'd say Charlotte right now. there were +1's out there, and I have -2. I've been debating putting a little more on them, but decided no reason to press...I should have 2-3 2nd halves and they are heating up. system plays that work every year. public is on ATL and when the public backs a dog the favorite is a good bet.
Indiana about the same. I watched it climb all day. Hit the 7 and ML then watched it tumble. Pacers have notable home battles vs Lakers, Boston etc. Magi shot over 55% last game, plus played the Clippers and hopefully the step up in comp adds a little to the 58% expected win rate I see with 7 (maybe 56.5 at 6).
Clippers. every dog has its fleas and I'm not a dog but they are and they certainly have fleas, mange, rabies, probably some HIV on that squad. But they are playing a team amidst an outbreak of Ebola. I see this as similar to the OKC game the Clippers won. It's tough to predict how LAC will compete but I see this as a 3 point game either way a high percentage of the time.
Phoenix -10 +100 for .8%
more likely they win by 20 than by 9.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
hope you got some on those ML's. I went small on them b/c they have been relatively cold this year, but they separate good nights from great nights, and vig nights from winning nights. I've been down this road so many times. Phx and GS should go over, I'm just hoping for the split with Phx covering. I stuck to my guns but it's fairly rare for me to cap a good night with the late game double. I've been playing a tourney and it took almost 3 hours to break it, so I haven't done any 2nd halves but I'll look at these two. Anything more than .5% is generally representing what I think is a 54% or better chance. .3,.4 I've got reasoning but a gamble. .7,.8% there's an angle that is solid. I rarely put 1.1% on a 2nd half, but when I do I see multiple things pointing to about a 60% opp.
For Jazz/Kings: I'm looking for reasons to back the Kings and the under. I passed on this game b/c the Kings are really struggling, and I spent a lot of time on the other games, put a decent amount on them. Midway thru the 2nd, it does look like a case for the over in the 2h. Public was on Jazz and over by fairly wide margins.
hope you got some on those ML's. I went small on them b/c they have been relatively cold this year, but they separate good nights from great nights, and vig nights from winning nights. I've been down this road so many times. Phx and GS should go over, I'm just hoping for the split with Phx covering. I stuck to my guns but it's fairly rare for me to cap a good night with the late game double. I've been playing a tourney and it took almost 3 hours to break it, so I haven't done any 2nd halves but I'll look at these two. Anything more than .5% is generally representing what I think is a 54% or better chance. .3,.4 I've got reasoning but a gamble. .7,.8% there's an angle that is solid. I rarely put 1.1% on a 2nd half, but when I do I see multiple things pointing to about a 60% opp.
For Jazz/Kings: I'm looking for reasons to back the Kings and the under. I passed on this game b/c the Kings are really struggling, and I spent a lot of time on the other games, put a decent amount on them. Midway thru the 2nd, it does look like a case for the over in the 2h. Public was on Jazz and over by fairly wide margins.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
2h Sac/Utah 3rd quarter over 55 for .4%
not an angle. just feel that Utah tries to battle back and Sac will continue to try to keep outscoring Utah in a chance for a rare win. I think Sac +4 is the right side but I'm not sure Sac is strong enough to secure a 5+ pt win.
2h Sac/Utah 3rd quarter over 55 for .4%
not an angle. just feel that Utah tries to battle back and Sac will continue to try to keep outscoring Utah in a chance for a rare win. I think Sac +4 is the right side but I'm not sure Sac is strong enough to secure a 5+ pt win.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
well, I did a writeup on Minnesota/Houston and I don't know what happened to it. I think I remember most of it. Since 12/15 Min hasn't lost a game by more than 8 points. They are 7-3 on the road since Christmas. After 2 days rest they are 11-4-1 ATS, and that is b/c McHale and the team are using the time off to improve, they were horrid before he took over and there's this thing called pride. They stayed within 8 at Boston, within 6 at SA, won SU at PHX. 7-3 on the road in spite of those 8 games in 12 days concluding with Atlanta. Sure, Houston may be a little motivated after that loss to Memphis, but even so, this line should be no more than -6.5. Rox reporting flu-like symptoms from more than one player.
Minnesota +8 for 1.2%
ML +300 for .3%
same at 7.5, looks like the few 8's out there a few minutes ago are even fewer now, may get back to 8, but I think Minnesota wins straight up.
well, I did a writeup on Minnesota/Houston and I don't know what happened to it. I think I remember most of it. Since 12/15 Min hasn't lost a game by more than 8 points. They are 7-3 on the road since Christmas. After 2 days rest they are 11-4-1 ATS, and that is b/c McHale and the team are using the time off to improve, they were horrid before he took over and there's this thing called pride. They stayed within 8 at Boston, within 6 at SA, won SU at PHX. 7-3 on the road in spite of those 8 games in 12 days concluding with Atlanta. Sure, Houston may be a little motivated after that loss to Memphis, but even so, this line should be no more than -6.5. Rox reporting flu-like symptoms from more than one player.
Minnesota +8 for 1.2%
ML +300 for .3%
same at 7.5, looks like the few 8's out there a few minutes ago are even fewer now, may get back to 8, but I think Minnesota wins straight up.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
this line is so bad I'm not sure what I'm missing. it "appeared" to be somewhat reasonable but then I went back and looked at all of the Dallas home games and the Chicago road games and their previous meetings and I guess they set it this high because 1. the public is still going with this over and 2. both of these teams have been scoring quite a bit recently. not that a high percentage of there games have been going over this total b/c the other teams haven't always scored too many. I counted 5 Dallas home games all year that have gone over 209. I was surprised. Where does Chicago fit in to this picture. That's a bit tricky but pretty much everything I'm looking at points to the under. Both teams are rested. Chicago went under this total at both NY and SAC, not to be transitive, but this suggests their style of play isn't a valid reason for 209. Both teams are rested. Nothing in their previous meetings suggests this type of total. A big factor is Chicago's shooting percentage in their last game: 56.6%. That adds value to the under as shooting percentage tends to regress quickly in the NBA. Now for Dallas there was a very long string of high shooting percentages until they played Utah. That tends to suggest a slight ongoing regression is likely. But the kicker is.... regression from what? The average Chicago road game is about 202 points, the average Dallas home game is about 201 points. Only one time in their previous ten meetings have they gone over 209, so they aren't adding points b/c of team tendencies like GS/PHX last night. Or are they? If anybody out there knows how they are arriving at this number feel free to add some thoughts. I think I had a couple other things to add, but I forgot what they were because this is very strange. Usually when I start typing I'll run across the something that makes it all halfway make sense, but the only thing I can think of is that because Dallas shot so badly against Utah they should score in bunches tonight. But the opposite holds true for Chicago. And the Mavs shot % was well above average for three and a half games in a row.
added to it.
Dallas/Chicago under 209 for 1.5%
this line is so bad I'm not sure what I'm missing. it "appeared" to be somewhat reasonable but then I went back and looked at all of the Dallas home games and the Chicago road games and their previous meetings and I guess they set it this high because 1. the public is still going with this over and 2. both of these teams have been scoring quite a bit recently. not that a high percentage of there games have been going over this total b/c the other teams haven't always scored too many. I counted 5 Dallas home games all year that have gone over 209. I was surprised. Where does Chicago fit in to this picture. That's a bit tricky but pretty much everything I'm looking at points to the under. Both teams are rested. Chicago went under this total at both NY and SAC, not to be transitive, but this suggests their style of play isn't a valid reason for 209. Both teams are rested. Nothing in their previous meetings suggests this type of total. A big factor is Chicago's shooting percentage in their last game: 56.6%. That adds value to the under as shooting percentage tends to regress quickly in the NBA. Now for Dallas there was a very long string of high shooting percentages until they played Utah. That tends to suggest a slight ongoing regression is likely. But the kicker is.... regression from what? The average Chicago road game is about 202 points, the average Dallas home game is about 201 points. Only one time in their previous ten meetings have they gone over 209, so they aren't adding points b/c of team tendencies like GS/PHX last night. Or are they? If anybody out there knows how they are arriving at this number feel free to add some thoughts. I think I had a couple other things to add, but I forgot what they were because this is very strange. Usually when I start typing I'll run across the something that makes it all halfway make sense, but the only thing I can think of is that because Dallas shot so badly against Utah they should score in bunches tonight. But the opposite holds true for Chicago. And the Mavs shot % was well above average for three and a half games in a row.
added to it.
Dallas/Chicago under 209 for 1.5%
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EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
good luck tonight x
good luck tonight x
ATX
2
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EOG Master
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
one way to look at it...Cleveland is the best home team in the league (IMO the best team period). Lakers were +7+ to Boston. Even further into their road trip and after a trade the Lakers are getting a lot fewer points to a better home team. This one should be more like 6-7.
one way to look at it...Cleveland is the best home team in the league (IMO the best team period). Lakers were +7+ to Boston. Even further into their road trip and after a trade the Lakers are getting a lot fewer points to a better home team. This one should be more like 6-7.
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EOG Master
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
the trade didn't affect much for today's game, you are probably right. kind of a grasp at straws finding reasons to fade the lakers by me. Felt like gambling a little in the NBA after 2 bad numbers cash b/c of OT. Pissed off is an understatement, been there hundreds of times, I'm actually winning that battle this year, a few overs have hit for me b/c of OT. No mistakes yesterday, except that I should have put more on the Dallas under and put some on the MIL ML.
T-Minus 1.23 hours until I hit the tables around the ATX. Start with a fun 110+10 tourney with usually around 90 people. My favorite game because there are 2 gals there...just smokin cute. One is a future wife.
2h Lakers pk for 3rd q for .5%
the trade didn't affect much for today's game, you are probably right. kind of a grasp at straws finding reasons to fade the lakers by me. Felt like gambling a little in the NBA after 2 bad numbers cash b/c of OT. Pissed off is an understatement, been there hundreds of times, I'm actually winning that battle this year, a few overs have hit for me b/c of OT. No mistakes yesterday, except that I should have put more on the Dallas under and put some on the MIL ML.
T-Minus 1.23 hours until I hit the tables around the ATX. Start with a fun 110+10 tourney with usually around 90 people. My favorite game because there are 2 gals there...just smokin cute. One is a future wife.
2h Lakers pk for 3rd q for .5%