Week 7 action

NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Last week was a bad dream. Hope I get back on track this week. Will probably try to play less games and tighten up a little til confidence returns...... who knows?

4 out of 6 weeks with profitable results.

+3.69 units. 84 -91-1 overall.

Monday action:

912 - Toronto RL +135 vs CWS (1.5 units)

912 - Tampa Bay -139 vs Oakland (1 unit)

912 - Tampa Bay RL +115 (0.5 units)

Good luck.

Probably will play Seattle tonight. Lets see how thing go this morning. :+clueless
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

Toronto run line bet bit me. Toronto was a run line covering machine to this point and hitting much better pitchers than this. Had the 2 run lead despite a poor offensive showing in the top of the 8th with two outs and nobody on. An infield ground ball to shortstop results in a base hit that paves the way for a Thome 2 run blast. Unbelievable.

I do a lot of run lines, but usually back them with ML hedges so I cant get totally burned. Occasionally I go for the gusto when the percentages and situations are ripe. This was one that didnt pan out. I think Ive only been burned twice this year on the run line when my team wins by one run. It hurts but if you play run lines carefully you should overcome the risk with bigger rewards in the long run. I know what some might be thinking, and this loser certainly stings, but statistically, this matchup was a good run line play that just blew up.

Adding:

2 tm parlay
917 - Milwaukee +114 w/over 9 -110 (0.5 units)
to win 1.54 units

2 tm parlay
907 - Mets +130 w/over 9.5 +100 (0.5 units)
to win 1.8 units

916 - Seattle +102 vs Anaheim Angels (1.5 units)

Staying positive is a must..... :LMAO

Good luck everyone. I need to go practice some meditation in my padded cell now. :thumbsup
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

3-3 for Monday. (-0.66 units)

Feel like Im on the verge of bustin out of the funk here. Lets get it done today.

971 - Baltimore +240 @ NY Yankees

Tough to play Bergeson but its a good fit for him. Hes all about keeping it on the ground. Still think going against CC is a great value at these prices. Yanks only 2-2 with him on the mound and 1-2 at home. Os have beaten him in first outing and this is thier third look. CC blanked them the second time around though. Hoping to catch to Yanks a little flat after they have had to pull every trick out of thier ass to sweep the Twins in every game of the series. Short version.... long shot, huge value.

976 - KC +125 vs Cleveland

Better team as a divisional home dog angle fits here. Cliff Lee is solid but so is Bannister and it takes 8 other dudes to win a game. Better team also stays home to continue its homestand with a needed day off. Cleveland travels off three losses in a row. Mucho angles in favor of the already better team.

968 - Detroit +117 vs Texas

Tigers win three straight get a day off and continue the homestand as a home dog. No one has any faith in Willis but then on the other side we have McCarthy who would be in the bullpen somewhere if Texas wasnt so short on pitching. Texas traveling off a terrific homestand and first place, may be a bit complacent in this game. Tigers bullpen blows Texas' bullpen out of the water and we will almost surely see both before the 6th inning. Id play the over but Im taking a break from that money milker for a while.

954 - Milwaukee RL +145 @ Houston

Do I really need to say much here. Travel and day off for Houston is a worry but thats about the only reason I can see to lay off. From whats transpired in this season so far Milwaukee has a 76% chance to win by 2 or more if they win.

961 - Cubs RL +145 @ STL

Cubs warming up and Redbirds really cold right now. Lilly on fire but still needs to prove it on the road. Pinieros defense better eat Wheaties tonight. Contact pitchers tend to get lots of it against the Cubs. Bullpen worries are gonna be with Cubs no dou bt but Lilly should be good for 7, hopefully with a big lead. Cubs had a day off while the Redbirds used the entire pen in thier beatdown by the Brewers. At least an 88% chance the Cubs cover a run line play should they win this one.

Good luck and Peace my brothers.
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

Thanks X. I know its the Balty game you disdain. I also know the O's read the paper too. They hate the Yankees and will go 200% to get a win off them. They will give a great effort regardless of the odds and I think Id rather lose a unit than watch Balty win and kick myself for not playing it. CC is waaaaay overpriced here.
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

3-2 for Tuesday. Forgot to list my units. Ill just say theyre all 1 unit plays since I fucked up. Actually did a little better unit wise but not enough to make a huge difference. Its all in my wallet where it really counts anyway.
(+1.87 units)

6-5 for week 7. (+1.21 units)

My heart goes out to anyone who had Cleveland and I will pray that Kerry Wood does not take his own life tonight (I know I would consider it). Had a mad brief thought of sending half my winnings to Cliff Lee but it was quickly replaced by the thought that I have to wake up and go to work tomorrow and I will not make in a year what he will makes for the week. Besides Ive had way more than my share of bad beats this year already. Waaaaay too many. Shit like this is why we cant quit our day jobs.

And by the way..... what the hell happened to the Cubs tonight 2348ji23e. UNLV could probably hit Piniero and the Cubs manage to make him into an All Star contender. Unbelievable.

This is one wacky sport.

Wednesday action:

921 - Toronto +107 @ Boston (1 unit)

Hope Cecil can keep up what hes been doing so far. He seems to be a good ground ball pitcher, which is the only way Ill bet a lefty (unless hes a proven ace) in Fenway Park. Toronto still the better team by a nose and maybe more. Still havnt seen anything better than mediocrity from Brad Penny and by the numbers, this Cecil kid is the nuts compared to him. Boston bats dont appear to be real reliable at this time.

901 - Pittsburgh +119 @ Washington (1 unit)

Lannan is beginning to fall off the map along with his team and Maholm is still a solid pitcher even if the Buckos arent always with him. They both appear to be in a good groove right now, while the Nationals are reeling. The Nats recent double header is still a factor as thier bullpen is unrested and slipping deeper into in a workload mess. The better team on a relative win streak and getting a plus price is a must play for me.

2 tm parlay
905 - Colorado +138 @ Atlanta w/under 8 -110 (0.5 units)
to win 1.77 units

Not sure I want to attempt an explanation on this one, so Ill leave it mostly to the imagination. I like the value with the correlated parlay and lets just say I expect a good pitching duel and feel the Rockies will have an edge in the late innings .....to keep it simple. :+clueless

I dont have an overnight line here in Vegas for the Dodgers tomorrow. But as long as the pitching matchup and price are not way out of line I will probably have a 1 unit ML and 0.5 unit RL play on them.

Good luck and Peace.
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

Adding:

916 - LA Dodgers -131 vs NY Mets (1 unit)

916 - LA Dodgers RL +150 (0.5 units)

The most basic and common two angles wrapped up in one game. Three game win streak at home vs three game losing streak on the road. Weaver very servicably solid and Hernandez is a wild card. Mets in the midst of one of thier classic basket case meltdown. Mets might have thier bags packed and loaded before they get to the ballpark today, maybe thier heads will be packed also. At least they wont be up thier asses.

Did I just talk smack? Oops ..... Can I take it back? Guess everyone should fade the Dodgers tonight thanks to me and my smart ass.

Good luck all.
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

2-3 for Wednesday (-0.05 units).

8-8 for the week (+1.16 units)

Thursday action:

970 - KC RL +105 vs Cleveland (1 unit)

Gonna try and get me sum of dat Greinke gravy train action. If he wins the odds are high they cover the run line. Really good.

956 - Atlanta -125 vs Colorado (1.5 units)

Kris Medlin has posted some terrific AAA numbers this year. So Ill go with the Debut pitcher as the Brave offense looks to be clicking lately. Cook has only two quality starts under his belt this year and was recently toasted by the Pirates.

Still considering the Giants and Brew crew but theres a possible fly in the ointment on both of these : divisional rival road favorite and Oswalt might be able to nuetralize the free swinging Brewers. I do like the value but I think it might be time for me to tighten up the reigns a bit. Been flying mighty close to the sun lately and Ive got a lot of hot wax hangin off my dick.

Peace. :thumbsup<!-- google_ad_section_end -->
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

0-2 for Thursday. (-2.5 units)

Going through a rough spell. Bound to have a few every season, things will improve. They always do.

8-10 for the week. (-1.34 units)

Friday action:

904 - Boston +115 vs NY Mets (1 unit)

922 - Minnesota -122 vs Milwaukee (1 unit)

924 - St Louis -125 vs KC

930 - LA Dodgers -120 vs Anaheim Angels

Good luck and Peace. :thumbsup
 
diogee

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
Re: Week 7 action

Best of luck Natty...time to get in the + for the week. Stl looks good with the way KC has been hitting err... not hitting.
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

Thanks guys. Lets get em tomorrow. Ive always done pretty good in interleague. Seems a lot dont like it. I think its a mistake to get too caught up in comparing leagues. Best just to cap each game on a one at a time basis. Still three outs, still ninety feet, still 9 innings and both sides must follow the same rules. No big deal in my opinion.
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

Been toying with the idea of playing a little extra on both of these straight bets but just couldnt pull the trigger on two home National league team to cover the run line. So I compounded the squareness and maximized the risk. Here it is.

Adding:

2 tm parlay

930 - LA Dodgers RL +170
924 - St Louis RL +165

0.4 units to win 2.46 units

I deserve to lose this on principle alone but I think its got a decent shot for a relatively small risk.

Fully prepared to take the heat if they both win by one run or any other heartbreaking scenarios.

Good luck all.
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

2-3-1 for Friday. (-1.78 units)

Would of been a great day were it not for Tori Hunter and his "Angels in the outfield". They were demons in my book. :devil::devil::devil::devil:
Definitely seemed to have God on thier side tonight. Oh well, Ill say a hail Mary and move on.

Ill update my weekly record tomorrow. Heres my Saturday action:

954 - St Louis -155 vs Kansas City (1.5 units)

957 - Philadelphia +148 @ NY Yankees (1.5 units)

969 - Minnesota -110 vs Milwaukee (1.1 units)

978 - LA Dodgers -125 vs Anaheim Angels (1.5 units)

Good luck and Peace.
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

3-1 tonight. (+2.17 units) Mr. Lidge was next in the line for the "Kick Natty in the balls sweepstakes". Nice day at any rate but theres always that one game 2348ji23e..... at least lately. Cant wait for my stars to line up.

Made a very large error in my unit loss calculation last night. Wasnt as bad as I originally posted. Anger can do things to a persons math skills. I actually only lost 0.79 units. So heres my updated record for the week.

Currently 13-14-1 for week 7. (+0.04 units)

Definitely cant brag, but glad to be ahead at least. My moments will come. I cant remember such a string of heartbreaking losses in such a short period of time :shoot:. Trying not to cry and I know the pendulum swings both ways. If I am still in the black with the way things are going lately, I know I must have just a little bit of skill. :thumbsup

Sunday action:

903 - Philadelphia +146 vs NY Yankees (1.2 units)

This is it for now. Wanted to play Boston, CWS, and LA Dodgers but the prices are a little too high right now. I will consider a run line play on these but not til I sleep on it a little. Maybe Ill bet my lunch money on a parlay with the run lines for kicks, but I wont post it because I dont believe anything above a two tm parlay is taking this shit very seriously.

Hopefully I can end the week a winner.

Good luck and Peace.
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

gynecologist said:
NO cards sir?
Click to expand...

I definitely had the Cards circled for the whole series Gyno. And I still think the sweep is a really good possibility. If forced to pick I would be there with you. Heres a few reasons why I have reservations on them tomorrow. 1) They have won the series and must travel to Milwaukee for what is relatively much more important than sweeping KC. Not that they wont try, but LaRussas priorities will be on the bigger picture. Wouldnt be surprised to see a big producer in the lineup get the day off. Bullpen will be used with the next series looming as the top priority. 2) Although Piniero has looked really good recently against the Cubs, we just have to look at the Cubs offensive output over the entire week to see that theyve make just about everyone look like an all star. I never have really trusted Piniero and I think Bannister (at least so far this year) is the better pitcher. The most worrisome thing about this pitching matchup to me is that Piniero pitched an eight inning complete game last time out and really put in a max effort to finnish the game. La Russa will be hesitant to pull him should he get into trouble since they have already won the series and will want a well rested and ready bullpen to try and sweep the division leading Milwaukee Brewers on the road.

Long winded analysis for why Im laying off this game. Kind of wierd since I still think it is STL or nothin but I thought you deserved a good explanation seeing how we both loved them the first two games.

Good luck Gyno, I will be rootin for you to cash this play.91023i2ndw;l
 
diogee

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
Re: Week 7 action

Best of luck Natty...tough one on the Phils for sure. Profit is profit...hope the rest of the week is a roller-coaster without any drops.
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

Youre welcome Gyno, and thank you for the support.

After much consideration I am adding two RL plays for the morning action:

916 - Boston RL +105 vs NY Mets

918 - White Sox +105 vs Pittsburgh

Still chomping the bit on the two late games. Like the Minny and Dodger sides, just hate the value. Maybe a small two teamer to nuetralize the juice if I do well in the morning. Or maybe Ill just move on to Monday.

Wont be able to check back for a while, so good luck all.
 
snoogans

snoogans

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Week 7 action

Best of luck Natty with the run lines. Not that many good matchups so I'm only playing texas and cleveland. Hope the money keeps flowing our way.:smoking2:
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week 7 action

Thanks Snoog. Luck to you also. Things gotta get rollin now that youve made you appearance. Seems like Im slowly climbing out of my slump. Hopefully they will be few and far between from now on. Id wish for never again but that would be just silly.

2-1 for the day with another couple of groin shots under my belt. Luckily I survived Lidge trying to take sloppy seconds on my ass. Pirates raped me today on the White Sox run line play. Aaaaaargh!!!!! Still happy to emerge somewhat victorious though.
(+1.80 units)

15-15-1 for week 7. (+1.84 units)
5 out of 7 weeks of profit.

99-106-2 for the year. (+5.53 units) It is what it is. :+whippingI expect better.
 
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