Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

[PassTheRock]

<TABLE width="90%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD>Jan 28,2009</TD><TD>11:56</TD><TD>NBA: To win the 2008/09 Championship</TD><TD>Denver Nuggets</TD><TD noWrap align=right>+3300</TD><TD>USD</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

:+clueless

 

[winkyduck]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

yes

but it won't cash but you should feel good about it

 

[shdw01]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

they are much better than 33-1 now.....but nowhere near 1-1 or a favorite.....

hedge it and be glad you made a fantastic wager....just don't hold on to the ticket too long without hedging.....

 

[ATX]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

hedge big.

 

[PassTheRock]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

I was thinking about hedging. But I have never done that before (rookie?).

Whats the best way to hedge at this point? Should I do it now or wait to see if Denver actually beats the Lakers?

BTW, this breaks my heart as a Lakers fan. But my wallet can use the best advice ya'll can give me.

 

[Wade]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

You should pat yourself on the back.

 

[railbird]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

I was thinking about hedging. But I have never done that before (rookie?).

Whats the best way to hedge at this point? Should I do it now or wait to see if Denver actually beats the Lakers?

BTW, this breaks my heart as a Lakers fan. But my wallet can use the best advice ya'll can give me.

Hedging is what squares do. Why give away your value. We have seen that Lakers and Cavs are both marginal. The media shoves 2 overrated players down our throat, it is why you were able to get 33-1 on the best team left.

 

[royalfan]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

Hedging is what squares do. Why give away your value. We have seen that Lakers and Cavs are both marginal. The media shoves 2 overrated players down our throat, it is why you were able to get 33-1 on the best team left.

First two sentences by rail are correct. Great gamblers identify if there is value in the "hedge" or not and bet accordingly. Every bet you make should be made if an only if it is an advantageous bet. Sort of an act like you have been there before and will be again mentality. Hedge if you think the price is right on LA and only if you think the price is right on LA. Good position and good luck.

 

[ATX]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

I would hedge now. I think LA wins the series. also if you are not betting single games involving your future you are passing up some money if you have an advantage ATS. Lakers are still -135 for series without home court.

 

[munson15]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

I'd bet Denver 'no title' for as much as you originally wagered. That way, you can't lose, but if they win, you still cash big. Congrats on a great bet.91023i2ndw;l

 

[PassTheRock]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

I picked up some Lakers to win the series.

I'm gonna get SOMETHING outta this. I should have done it when it was -135 though.

 

[gridironguy]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

Hedging is what squares do. Why give away your value. We have seen that Lakers and Cavs are both marginal. The media shoves 2 overrated players down our throat, it is why you were able to get 33-1 on the best team left.

hogwash. pros lock in profit.

passtherock, now that its 2-2, wait until the outcome of tomorrow night. if the lakers win, i say hold off because the nuggets will likely win gm 6, but perhaps you can bet the lakers moneyline in gm 6 at denver to have + value just in case they win, youll guarantee yourself profit. if the nuggets win gm 6 and go back to LA 3-3, you DEFINITELY take the lakers moneyline in gm 7 because thats a very tough gm to win on the road for denver with that much on the line

if you hold on to the ticket and do not hedge like some of these crazy ppl are telling you, you are swinging for a home run only and may not make anything. its just using some simple math now, for each gm by gm scenario. i will say this: if the nuggets win tomorrow night, they will win gm 6 and you will take that ticket into the finals with you and denver will be a very good pick to beat orlando or cleveland. you might be sitting very pretty if the nuggets win tomorrow nite at staples, and considering that they won the last time they played there (gm 2), i really like your chances bud........................

 

[royalfan]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

hogwash. pros lock in profit.

passtherock, now that its 2-2, wait until the outcome of tomorrow night. if the lakers win, i say hold off because the nuggets will likely win gm 6, but perhaps you can bet the lakers moneyline in gm 6 at denver to have + value just in case they win, youll guarantee yourself profit. if the nuggets win gm 6 and go back to LA 3-3, you DEFINITELY take the lakers moneyline in gm 7 because thats a very tough gm to win on the road for denver with that much on the line

if you hold on to the ticket and do not hedge like some of these crazy ppl are telling you, you are swinging for a home run only and may not make anything. its just using some simple math now, for each gm by gm scenario. i will say this: if the nuggets win tomorrow night, they will win gm 6 and you will take that ticket into the finals with you and denver will be a very good pick to beat orlando or cleveland. you might be sitting very pretty if the nuggets win tomorrow nite at staples, and considering that they won the last time they played there (gm 2), i really like your chances bud........................

Completely wrong on the hedging aspect. Each wager is its own wager. You only should "hedge" if the you like the price of the entity you are making the new wager on. You don't make bad wagers just because you have one really good one. You have to act like you have been there before and will be again. Every bet made at any time should be a positive ev one.

 

[PassTheRock]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

Thanks for the info/advice, guys.

 

[gridironguy]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

Completely wrong on the hedging aspect. Each wager is its own wager. You only should "hedge" if the you like the price of the entity you are making the new wager on. You don't make bad wagers just because you have one really good one. You have to act like you have been there before and will be again. Every bet made at any time should be a positive ev one.

i completely, utterly, and vehemently disagree in this case

when you bet an underdog to win a series, sometimes you do so because there is value there in the dog taking it to 6 or 7 games, case in point, i bet the rockets +650 vs the lakers because i felt very strongly they matched up well with the lakers and it might go 6 or 7, once it went 3-3 i felt very strongly as did all of you that the lakers would win gm 7, so with gm 7 approaching i was either sitting on a loss of $1000 which i placed on the rockets to win the series = +6500, but i knew that wasnt gonna happen, so i came over the top with the lakers -1100 moneyline to win gm 7

i locked in profit because otherwise i'm sitting on a great value of rockets +650 but a losing ticket

pros and amateurs alike should ALWAYS look to profit, that is the name of the game

 

[Mr. Smith]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

you may disagree, but you are 100% wrong

 

[gridironguy]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

another example of betting value

the last 3 yrs, including this yr, i have bet federer to win the french open at huge huge + odds, knowing that nadal is the actual favorite to win...........in 07 and 08 in the finals, nadal was around a -300 to -350 favorite both times over federer, depending on the yr, i knew both times that nadal barring injury would run fed off the crt, so i came back with nadal moneyline to win and made profit both times simply because fed was in the finals and if nadal was upset i had the fed future in my back pocket

profit profit profit, that is the name of the gm with futures bets, otherwise theres no pt betting the underdog in series bets or other future bets

 

[winkyduck]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

i wih to aplogize

earlier i said you had THREE losing tix on the Nuggets - forgot thie one...it now makes FOUR losing tix you have

amazed at how someone who claims to be smart can make bets as DUMB as these

 

[gridironguy]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

i have NEVER, not even once, come over the top against my original series bet or future bet and had the original series or future bet be the winner

you have to know when to come back over the top or when to hedge. if the lakers and nuggets are tied 3-3 going into gm 7, i believe 'passtherock' should hedge the +3300 with lakers moneyline in gm 7 because gm 7 teams win over 80% of the time

simple math, which helps me because i'm pretty good at it

 

[royalfan]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

i completely, utterly, and vehemently disagree in this case

when you bet an underdog to win a series, sometimes you do so because there is value there in the dog taking it to 6 or 7 games, case in point, i bet the rockets +650 vs the lakers because i felt very strongly they matched up well with the lakers and it might go 6 or 7, once it went 3-3 i felt very strongly as did all of you that the lakers would win gm 7, so with gm 7 approaching i was either sitting on a loss of $1000 which i placed on the rockets to win the series = +6500, but i knew that wasnt gonna happen, so i came over the top with the lakers -1100 moneyline to win gm 7

i locked in profit because otherwise i'm sitting on a great value of rockets +650 but a losing ticket

pros and amateurs alike should ALWAYS look to profit, that is the name of the game

So let me get this straight. More proof you are fabricating stories. Losing more credibility. You had 1000 to win 6500 on the Rockets to win the series. So game 7 rolls around you decided to "lock in a profit"? Well genius, you just said you are good at math.

11000 to win 1000 gets you even on the whole deal if Lakers win game. If they don't you lose 4500. There is and was no locking in profits like you claimed.

Bottom line is this, there are times to hedge and times not to. Depends on if you think the new wager is positive EV or no. Essentially not even a hedge really. But if you have a big future position and you are getting what you deem to be a fair price it isn't bad to hedge. If getting ass ended on value and expectation it is.

Perfect example, I had large position on Marlins to win NL the bartman year at 55-1. They were not getting proper respect with linesman in my view and so I opted not to hedge. I was not going to play Prior and Wood at -240 in those last two games. Would have been stupid bets. Rest is history. You have to plan on getting good positions in the future. You don't give up large chunks of profit making shitty bets.

 

[royalfan]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

i have NEVER, not even once, come over the top against my original series bet or future bet and had the original series or future bet be the winner

you have to know when to come back over the top or when to hedge. if the lakers and nuggets are tied 3-3 going into gm 7, i believe 'passtherock' should hedge the +3300 with lakers moneyline in gm 7 because gm 7 teams win over 80% of the time

simple math, which helps me because i'm pretty good at it

If your mythical stories are true, and you can always tell who is going to win and lock in profit at the right time, then just play moneylines when those times come up and forget your series dabbling as those end up being losing tickets anyway as your story goes.

 

[winkyduck]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

i wih to aplogize

earlier i said you had THREE losing tix on the Nuggets - forgot thie one...it now makes FOUR losing tix you have

amazed at how someone who claims to be smart can make bets as DUMB as these

i do owe GG an aplogy here - i thought this was HIS losing ticket

so i take it back he has FOUR losing Nuggets tix - he only has 3

 

[gridironguy]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

genius, i bet more than 11000 on the lakers ML because i can afford it, i had the rockets point spread every gm and was 4-2 goin into the gm 7, so profit was already made which allowed me to come over the top with the lakers

 

[biggamer3]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

So let me get this straight. More proof you are fabricating stories. Losing more credibility. You had 1000 to win 6500 on the Rockets to win the series. So game 7 rolls around you decided to "lock in a profit"? Well genius, you just said you are good at math.

11000 to win 1000 gets you even on the whole deal if Lakers win game. If they don't you lose 4500. There is and was no locking in profits like you claimed.

Bottom line is this, there are times to hedge and times not to. Depends on if you think the new wager is positive EV or no. Essentially not even a hedge really. But if you have a big future position and you are getting what you deem to be a fair price it isn't bad to hedge. If getting ass ended on value and expectation it is.

Perfect example, I had large position on Marlins to win NL the bartman year at 55-1. They were not getting proper respect with linesman in my view and so I opted not to hedge. I was not going to play Prior and Wood at -240 in those last two games. Would have been stupid bets. Rest is history. You have to plan on getting good positions in the future. You don't give up large chunks of profit making shitty bets.

:cheers

Good shit Royalfan

 

[royalfan]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

genius, i bet more than 11000 on the lakers ML because i can afford it, i had the rockets point spread every gm and was 4-2 goin into the gm 7, so profit was already made which allowed me to come over the top with the lakers

I am way too smart to let you try and back your way out of that one. Bottom line is you claimed you locked in profit and you were fucking lying. Lost all credibility. You were in a shitty position on that story from the land of make believe. I just caught it and busted your balls AGAIN. Add it to the Bibby thing, the Nuggest interior defense, the playing every game on the card. Now you are a liar on top of it, claiming you locked in profit. But at least you can afford it, allegedly. Furthermore, point spread bets have nothing to do with the series bet dipshit.

:thumbsup

 

[Mr. Smith]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

I cant believe anyone would hedge a 33-1 Nuggets to win it all bet before like game 5 of a championship series if it was 2-2.

with early hedging is this, you will piss away almost all your equity hedging to "lock in a profit". A very small profit you will end up with, no matter who wins. Squares feel sharp when they do this, but its an awful idea. The problem is you make a lot of futures that go bad and never get into "hedge to lock in a profit" area. So if you piss away most of the equity of a good future, where does that leave you considering all your futures that are stone cold losers?

You are hopeless. Your losers lose, your winners are largely pissed away. Huge loser at futures. You are actually "locking in a loss" by giving away your winners.

Their are times to hedge, already been talked about. If you are 1 game away from a huge win and dont really have an opinion on the last game for instance, then hedge. Their are a few other examples.

Same deal with the guys who do like 5 team baseball parlays in a night and come in and post they are 4-0. Lets say their 5th is Lincecum -160 tonight, which they obviously like since they picked it. So they ask "Should I hedge and take Atlanta?" Square answer is hell yes, lock in a profit!!!

But that locks in a loss considering all the parlays that never get to hedge area and the pissing away half of it by hedging on sides you dont even like. Be tough and let it go on San Fran. Otherwise, if you cant do that and take it if you lose, dont bet parlays, make straight bets.

by hedging your parlays you are locking in losses. if thats what you do, then swith to straight, because you are hopeless to win at parlays, losers lose, winners give 1/2 away. No chance to come out ahead.

 

[royalfan]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

Not surprisingly, very well put. Good example on the parlays.

 

[PassTheRock]

Re: Should I be feeling good about this future bet I made back in January?

I picked up some Lakers to win the series.

I'm gonna get SOMETHING outta this. I should have done it when it was -135 though.

Thank you guys who told me to hedge. I came out very much on top for doing so.

You know who you are. :cheers