I dug long and hard to find the valued side last night, and it turned in another winner. I have done even more to ensure, at the very least I am on the valued side for this one as well, and hopefully I can show you why this is the most valued play in tonight's game. let's go back and look at this total for game one. The books, and the public sw this one as being very physical, and defensive, and the opening game total was set at 184. The public still liked the under and backed it, even though the public is almost exclusively over oriented, they went under 51.36%, which doesn't seem like much, but rarely is a public consensus on the under. The series took on the OVER trait, and has produced 4 of 5 to the OVER, forcing the hand of the oddsmaker to go 8.5 points higher on what was deemed a fair total for these teams. So the question becomes this. Did the oddsmakers miss this one, and the new total is fair, or did the public force their hand, to move this 8.5 points? My answer is a little of both. This game however has been more public, as the same bettors that sided under in game 1, have been seduced well onto the otherside, where they favor the over, despite an 8.5 point line movement. The public is close to 70% on the over. Not me! Let's take a look at the Denver/Laker series. It followed a similar course in the opposite direction. The series opener was 214, but 4 of 5 unders pushed the line down to 208.5. Not quite as much as the total moving up in this case, but there is a reason for that. The oddsmakers know the action is going over, so they hedge the few points difference here, while they pad the OVER for the Cleveland game, a full 3 points more, than they reduced the total in the LA series. Last night the game went over, but it would have fallen under to the opening "fair" total. Now we have to look back and see if this is a similar pattern in NBA 3rd round 6th game playoffs. I take you back to 1998 when Indiana had played 4 of 5 to the OVER, and the opening 1st game total was 178. Because of the over signature on the series, the oddsmakers jacked the total to 186.5 for game 6. The game played UNDER, but also note, it would have gone OVER the game 1 "fair" total. The 1993 Chicago Bulls had played 4 of 5 overs in their 3rd round series, and the total went from game 1 at 183, to game 6 at 191. This game also went UNDER the total, but again, would have gone OVER the game 1 "fair" total. Contrary to popular belief, I am of the opinion, that the last game, or 2 games ago, does not have anything to do with the next game, except in the mind of the public. They go by what they see, and what they see is points, and the oddsmakers aren't foolish, they will put out a line that puts the expectation of the public OVER on the wrong side of the value, and tax the total, and in this case almost 9 points from the original. NBA 3rd round action has seen 26 series go to game 6 since 1991. There have been 19 of the 26 that have been 3-2 to the UNDER or better, while there have been just 7 that have been 3-2 to the OVER or better. All together this round through game 5 has seen the unders go 88-43. Game 6 has seen the under prevail at 15-10. When it has been an over series through 5 games, which mentioned earlier has occured 7 times, game 6 went under in 5 of them 71.4% of the time. Eastern Conference game 6's have gone under in 10 of 14, or 71.4% of the time. Lots of line value here on the UNDER and that is my play here
CLEVELAND @ ORLANDO
- Thread starter Ned
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