2009 MLB

[bigdeal]

Hey guys I'm going to start posting my plays here, see how they go. I have a few different sorts of plays and I will post them all here. I do a chase system pretty much identical to gyno's, except I have more than one each series and I also include totals.

My other best are usually based on trends (for example betting against Tampa in Cleveland this week due to their awful record there). Anyway I'm sure you'll understand more once I start making plays.

I'll keep records for both and a total record mainly for myself.

Ok firstly series chases for these series, some of them have already left (chased LAD and Under today) but both won so I won't be counting these.

These aren't normally the lines I get either, I'm just using the most readily available line at the time of posting.

Series Chase

DET @ BAL = 0.5 units to win 0.56 (+113)

It is my belief Detroit has the advantage in all three of the remaining games between these two games.

OAK @ TEX G1 = 0.57 units to win 0.5 (-114)

Oakland is 4-10 in their last 14 meetings in Texas. Away from home they are 7-13 compared to Texas's home record of 15-8. Pitching matchups throughout the series don't give much advantage either way IMO but Texas will claim at least one, probably two or three IMO. This is probably the game Oakland will take but with Texas I never take games off when chasing like I do some others because their offense can fire any time of any day.

NYY @ CLE = 1 unit to win 1.14 (+114)

Apart from this game NYY have a big advantage in pitching matchups, but like Texas you can never discount the Yankee offense so I won't leave this game out either.

CWS @ KC = 0.62 units to win 0.5 (-124)

Chicago are just 2-5 in their last 7 in Kansas, Kansas have the pitching advantage in G1 and a very large one in G3. Chicago are only 9-15 away from home this year while Kansas are 15-12 at home.

CWS @ KC UNDER 9 = 0.5 units to win 0.52 (+104)

Under is 6-1 in the last seven between these two teams. I reckon the first two have a slight advantage to the Under and the last one should easily stay under.

SEA @ ANA = 0.89 units to win 0.5 (-178)

Angels are 40-18 in their last 58 games against the Mariners. I despise playing the Angels in these sort of series but it should be over after game one with Lackey on the mound and I'm sure they'll take one of the others anyway. Angels are 13-10 at home compared to Mariners 10-13 away.

HOU @ PIT = 0.62 units to win 0.5 (-124)

Houston stink, it's as simple as that. Pittsburgh aren't fantastic either but they have the pitching advantage in G1 and 3 and are 11-9 at home.

WSH @ PHI = 0.81 units to win 0.5 (-162)

Washington aren't sweeping anyone, especially away from home, 6-17 away home from. Phillies are 5-1 head to head in their last 6 in Philly as well.

FLA @ NYM = 0.5 units to 0.81 (+162)

I go into more details about Pelfrey's crapness versus Florida but I'll just tell you here he sucks. Game 1 is like 50/50, +162 is a joke. Aside from that Florida have two of their better starters starting after game 1 and they hold a 5-2 record in their last seven games in new York.

CIN @ MIL UNDER 8.5 = 1.1 units to win 1 (-110)

We've got six solid starters coming in this series which always helps. MIL are 10-12 O/U at home and Cincinatti are 7-13 O/U away from home.

SD @ COL OVER 9.5 = 2.6 units to win 2 (-130)

I'll just tell you this. Colorado overs are 14-5 this year. They are 6-2 in the last 8 between these two teams in Colorado and 9-4 overall.

STL @ SF UNDER 7.5 = 1 units to win 1.02 units (+102)

Ok that's those, I know alot of people are going to think this is ridiculous and that's fine, but at least give me a chance before you come in here telling me it's not going to work.

Normal Plays

LAD @ CHC = 1.04 units to win 1 (-104)

Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 against the Cubs and the Cubs are straight up awful at the moment. The pitching matchup is a slight edge to the Dodgers IMO. Lilly is 1-2 with a 5.03 ERA in his last 3 although he is much better at home. Billingsley is 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA in his last 3 and he's also been lights out away from home this year going 2-0 with a 1.63 ERA.

NYY @ CLE UNDER 9 = 1.12 units to win 1 (-112)

In Lee's last seven starts, Under is 6-1. Lee kept the Yankee's to just 1 ER in 6IP in Whiffle Ball Park and blanked them over 7 in his only start last year. Under is 5-0 in Pettitte's last five. In his last four starts against CLE he has an ERA of 3.60. The Under is also 5-0 in the last 5 games between these teams in Cleveland

HOU @ PIT UNDER 10 = 0.61 units to win 0.5 (-122)

I will be playing this total all series, the Under is 15-3-1 in the last 19 meeting in Pittsburg. I'm not so hot on these pitchers but I'm also not keen on these teams offenses and 10 is awfully high for these offenses.

FLA @ NYM = 0.5 units to 0.81 (+162)

Already got some Florida above but I see better value then just 0.5 units here. Pelfrey absolutely sucks versus Florida. Mets are 0-7 in his last seven starts against them. Sean West was OK in his first start but this is a play against Pelfrey more than anything.

CIN @ MIL = 0.5 units to win 0.53 (+106)

Cincinnati are 8-3 in their last 11 in Milwuakee. Cueto has been solid against the Brewers, going 6+ with only 2 ER in all three starts. Cueto this year is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA away from home, compare this to Looper with a 2-1 record with a 4.66 ERA at home and a 2-1 record with a 5.00 ERA in his last three. Cincinatti are also very solid on the road so that quell's any fears I had about that with a 13-8 records this year.

As I said above, I know I play a lot of games but before you bash at least see how the plays go. If you think it's that bad of an idea, it's easy, just fade, I don't care. 12io4j2w90

 

[diogee]

Re: 2009 MLB

Best of luck bigdeal. Solid analysis along with the plays.

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Thanks mate.

Good luck to you tomorrow as well.

 

[NattyBumpo]

Re: 2009 MLB

Good luck Bigdeal. Nice post and analysis. Got me worried about my Mets action now. Pelfrey does seem to be putting some consistancy together over his last four starts, which is something he has lacked. Bastard always seems to go sour when I back him. Hopefully (for my sake) your trend is due for a slip and he has figured out a thing or two. I like a lot of your other action though. Welcome to the forum.

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

What I also Forgot to mention IF TEX lose G1 this is the play for G2 since I'll probably only just be getting up a bit before this starts so won't have time to post it as a play.

OAK @ TEX = 1.62 units to win 1.07 units (-152)

Again this is only a play if they lose G1.

Good luck to all. :cheers

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Series Chase

DET @ BAL = 0.5 units to win 0.56 (+113) Loss -0.5 units

OAK @ TEX G1 = 0.57 units to win 0.5 (-114) Won +0.5 units

NYY @ CLE = 1 unit to win 1.14 (+114) Won +1.14 units

CWS @ KC = 0.62 units to win 0.5 (-124) Loss -0.62 units

CWS @ KC UNDER 9 = 0.5 units to win 0.52 (+104) Loss -0.5 units

SEA @ ANA = 0.89 units to win 0.5 (-178) Loss -0.89 units

HOU @ PIT = 0.62 units to win 0.5 (-124) Loss -0.62 units

WSH @ PHI = 0.81 units to win 0.5 (-162) Won +0.5 units

FLA @ NYM = 0.5 units to 0.81 (+162) Loss -0.5 units

CIN @ MIL UNDER 8.5 = 1.1 units to win 1 (-110) Won +1 unit

SD @ COL OVER 9.5 = 2.6 units to win 2 (-130) Loss -2.6 units

STL @ SF UNDER 7.5 = 1 units to win 1.02 units (+102) Won +1.02 units

Normal Plays

LAD @ CHC = 1.04 units to win 1 (-104) Loss -1.04 units

NYY @ CLE UNDER 9 = 1.12 units to win 1 (-112) Won +1 unit

HOU @ PIT UNDER 10 = 0.61 units to win 0.5 (-122) Won +0.5 units

FLA @ NYM = 0.5 units to 0.81 (+162) Loss -0.5 units

CIN @ MIL = 0.5 units to win 0.53 (+106) Loss -0.5 units

Obviously G2 in Texas didn't count because G1 got up.

Chase Plays = 5-7 -2.07 units
Normal Plays = 2-3 -0.54 units
Overall = 6-10 -2.61 units

Bit of a meh day. Could have been very different with all three losing normal plays losing by 1 run :hangt

Series Chase (G2)

DET @ BAL = 1.23 units to win 1 (-123)

CWS @ KC = 1.21 units to win 1.12 (-108)

CWS @ KC UNDER 8.5 = 1 unit to win 1.03 (+103)

SEA @ ANA = 1.42 units to win 1.39 (-102)

HOU @ PIT = 1 unit to win 1.34 (+134)

FLA @ NYM = 1.07 units to win 1 (-107)

SD @ COL OVER 11 = 4.18 units to win 4.6 units (+110)


Normal Plays

HOU @ PIT UNDER 8 = 1 units to win 1.03 (+103)

As I said yesterday, these two teams in Pittsburgh, playing the under has equaled $$. Yesterday I didn't really like the pitching matchup so only played it small but I like this one more. I could reel off any number of stats but some of the ones that got my attention were. Unders are 5-0-1 in Karstens last 6 home starts. Under is 11-5 in Wandy's last 16 and the Under is 4-0 in the Pirates last 4 versus LHP.

SEA @ ANA OVER 8.5 = 0.52 units to win 0.5 (-104)

For some reason the Angels seem to give Palmer good run support this season averaging six runs on offense every start, and averaging 8 on the road. Couple this with the fact Felix is pretty average against the Angels, over the course of this season and the two previous the least amount of runs he's give up is 3. The Over is 8-1 in Felix's last 9 against the Angels.

Some of the chase plays would also be normal play's if I wasn't chasing but am pretty happy with the units I'm risking already on those plays.

I may also have a play on the Cubs total depending on the line, if it's a play I'll post later.

Thanks for anyone who took the time to read this.

Good luck to you all :cheers

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Series Chase (G2)

DET @ BAL = 1.23 units to win 1 (-123) Won +1 unit

CWS @ KC = 1.21 units to win 1.12 (-108) Loss -1.21 units

CWS @ KC UNDER 8.5 = 1 unit to win 1.03 (+103) Won +1.03 units

SEA @ ANA = 1.42 units to win 1.39 (-102) Loss -1.42 units

HOU @ PIT = 1 unit to win 1.34 (+134) Won +1.34 units

FLA @ NYM = 1.07 units to win 1 (-107) Won +1 unit

SD @ COL OVER 11 = 4.18 units to win 4.6 units (+110) Won +4.6 units


Normal Plays

HOU @ PIT UNDER 8 = 1 units to win 1.03 (+103) Loss -1 unit

SEA @ ANA OVER 8.5 = 0.52 units to win 0.5 (-104) Loss -0.52 units

Pretty good day, bit pissed about the Angels blowing a 3-0 lead and still not being able to get the game over :+clueless

YTD Record
Chase Plays = 10-9 +4.27 units
Normal Plays = 2-5 -2.56 units
Overall = 12-13 +1.71 units


Series Chase (G3)

SEA @ ANA = 4.97 units to win 2.81 (-178)

CWS @ KC = 3.92 units to win 2.33 (-169)

Normal Plays

BOS @ TOR UNDER 9.5 = 1.23 units to win 1 (-123)
Lester has typically been pretty solid against Toronto. All four of Romero's starts have gone under. Both teams have been playing a lot of Under's lately. The Red Sox offense has been cold as of late scoring three runs or under five games in a row. Andy Fletcher is HP umpire tomorrow, in his last 57 games he has overseen 36 unders with 15 losses and 6 pushes.

FLA @ NYM UNDER 8.5 = 1.15 units to win 1 (-115)Volstad has been good this year, with an away record of 2-1 with a 3.19 ERA. In 12.1 IP previously against the NYM he has given up just one ER. Under is 8-3 in Volstad's last 11 on the road. Maine has been very good against FLA in the past, in his past 4 games he has an ERA of 1.21 and overall an ERA of 2.52 over 8. Before this series the Under was 10-2 in the last 12 and 6-1 in the last 7 in New York.

WSH @ PHI = 1.31 units to win 1 (-131)

I don't get this line at all. Washington are straight up awful, on another 5 game losing streak. Ok so Moyer has been crap so far this season. Lannan is still 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA away from home this year which is comparable to Moyer's stats this year. Phillies are 8-1 in Moyer's start since he moved to the Phillies against Washington and the maximum he has conceded in these starts was 4.

OAK @ TEX UNDER 9.5 = 1 units to win 1.12 (+112)
The Under is 7-3 in Braden's L10 road starts, and 6-2 in last 8 overall. The Under is 7-0 in Braden's last 7 against American League West opposition. The Under is 3-1 in his starts against Texas. He also has a nice overall ERA of 3.69 and 3.86 away from home. Milwood on the other hand has a 2.52 ERA at home this season. He's also been solid in his last three against Oakland going 21 innings and giving up 5 runs.

SEA @ LAA UNDER 9 = 0.5 units to win 0.52 (+104)

The Under is 8-2 in Santana's L10 starts versus Seattle. Santana got lit up last start and that will scare a lot of people off and that's probably what's driving the line up. Both of these offenses have been very average of late as you can see with LA only scoring over 4 once in L10, while the Seattle offense continues plug along never getting big totals, having not scored over 6 runs since early this month.

STL @ SF OVER 7.5 = 0.53 units to win 0.5 (-106)

Despite Wainwright being good this year, he's still be involved in a lot of Over's, in his last 19 games the Over is 12-5-2. Sanchez has also been pitching a lot of over's this season. In his L10 at home the Over is 8-1-1. Both of these pitchers haven't seen a total as low as 7.5 since early April.

ATL @ ARI = 0.78 units to win 0.5 (-156)

Max has been great lately, in his L3 he has an ERA of 2.37, winning all of them. He is starting to live up to some of the hype afforded to him at the start of the season. In his one start against ATL he went 6 innings giving up just four hits and no runs. Medlen on the other hand has been very average in his first two starts in the bigs.


Pretty big day, didn't intend to have so many plays but that's just the way the fell. Hopefully can get the two big ones in and make it a good first series posting here.

:cheers

 

[NattyBumpo]

Re: 2009 MLB

Good luck Bigdeal. Hope you get those chasers in tomorrow, both look like decent chances, especially the KC play with Grienke going like he has.

Hows Australia? Are you originally from there?

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Good luck Bigdeal. Hope you get those chasers in tomorrow, both look like decent chances, especially the KC play with Grienke going like he has.

Hows Australia? Are you originally from there?

Cheers Natty.

Really like both of the chase plays to get up, not really loving the Angels juice and haven't all series but not going to stop here.

Yeah Australia's alright at the moment, obviously just getting into winter here so it's getting pretty cold. Obviously nothing compared to what you US guys face but still pretty fresh. Yeah born and bred Aussie, used to play Baseball quite a lot and was once a decent Catcher but developed pretty bad knee problems so can't catch anymore but still play a bit. That's how I got into betting American sports, just loved the game and then when bases ended starting getting really into College Football.

Only downside is the ridiculous hours I run trying to gamble and work at the same time. For example a 1pm ET game over there starts at 2:30am over here. :hangt Makes getting the best line a bit of a challenge but I love it and I'm still young so can deal with the hours at the moment.

How's Vegas treating you? How long you been out there for?

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Forgot one play, hating all these Under's today but one I've got to play.

HOU @ PIT UNDER 8.5 = 1.07 units to win 1 (-107)

We've got two under teams going head to head with Johnny behind the dish. If I need to say more to convince you then just don't play. I'm sure most who like this angle like me have been on this since the line came out.

12io4j2w90

 

[NattyBumpo]

Re: 2009 MLB

Cheers Natty.

Really like both of the chase plays to get up, not really loving the Angels juice and haven't all series but not going to stop here.

Yeah Australia's alright at the moment, obviously just getting into winter here so it's getting pretty cold. Obviously nothing compared to what you US guys face but still pretty fresh. Yeah born and bred Aussie, used to play Baseball quite a lot and was once a decent Catcher but developed pretty bad knee problems so can't catch anymore but still play a bit. That's how I got into betting American sports, just loved the game and then when bases ended starting getting really into College Football.

Only downside is the ridiculous hours I run trying to gamble and work at the same time. For example a 1pm ET game over there starts at 2:30am over here. :hangt Makes getting the best line a bit of a challenge but I love it and I'm still young so can deal with the hours at the moment.

How's Vegas treating you? How long you been out there for?

Thanks for the comeback Bigdeal. I was very curious about your perspective from down under. Appreciate the answer. You covered all the bases (no pun intended). Look forward to your angle on things. Always love to hear from guys who played at any higher level, especially the catching position. Sure you might have some good reads on some of the situations the Pitchers are facing. I can certainly understand your logistical challenges too. Good thing is youll be pounding the box scores while were still sleeping and have fresh dope in your threads for us to wake up to.......I think. Maybe I have that backwards here in the Northern Hemisphere. :LMAO

Anyway.... glad ya found us and good luck.

 

[choslamshe]

Re: 2009 MLB

GL with all your plays...

Really like this thread and your writeups!!

I'm gonna tag along on your STL/SF Over

 

[NattyBumpo]

Re: 2009 MLB

Just realized I didnt answer you question. Pardon my manners.

Love just about everything in Vegas except.... and this is a big thing , the heat. I work outdoors so four months of misery is the price I pay. Winters rock. Got snow last year that didnt melt for a couple of days. Nearly shut down the town. :cheers

Love the cash and carry legal gambling and nothing beats grocery shopping at 2 in the morning in a 24 hr town.

Wouldnt mind living near the ocean or in the mountains but two things prevent that. The oceans too expensive and the mountains dont have jobs that pay a good enough living. Guess Im stuck in the desert for a while at least. Betting sports certainly doesnt pay the bills. Ha!

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Thanks for the well wishes Cho. :cheers
Natty, thanks for your reply, always love to hear about your life as a bettor in another part of the globe. Hope to hear more from you the longer I'm around.

Series Chase (G3)

SEA @ ANA = 4.97 units to win 2.81 (-178) Won +2.81 units

CWS @ KC = 3.92 units to win 2.33 (-169) Loss -3.92 units

Normal Plays

BOS @ TOR UNDER 9.5 = 1.23 units to win 1 (-123) Loss -1.23 units

FLA @ NYM UNDER 8.5 = 1.15 units to win 1 (-115) Won +1 unit

WSH @ PHI = 1.31 units to win 1 (-131) Won +1 unit

OAK @ TEX UNDER 9.5 = 1 units to win 1.12 (+112) Won +1.12 units

SEA @ LAA UNDER 9 = 0.5 units to win 0.52 (+104) Loss -0.5 units

STL @ SF OVER 7.5 = 0.53 units to win 0.5 (-106) Won +0.5 units

ATL @ ARI = 0.78 units to win 0.5 (-156) Loss -0.78 units

HOU @ PIT UNDER 8.5 = 1.07 units to win 1 (-107). Won +1 unit

Today:
Chase Plays: 1-1 -1.11 units
Normal Plays 5-3 +2.11 units
Overall: 6-4 +1 unit

YTD:

Chase Plays: 11-10 +3.16 units
Normal Plays: 7-8 -0.45 units
Overall = 18-18 +2.71 units

Pretty happy with the day, would have really loved to have gotten KC in for a big series but still quite happy to be coming out in the plus.

My plays will be posted later, just thought I'd post and update now.

 

[diogee]

Re: 2009 MLB

+ money is what it is all about...hope it continues in June. Will probably start some calculated chase style bets later this month as well.

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Cheers dio, I'm sure you've been keeping/looking at plenty of stats for your chases but if you ever want anyone to run an idea by with those chases feel free to shoot us a PM. I may not be able to help at all but sometimes I might be able to.

Here we go, with the start of a few new series today and the rest tomorrow.

Series Chase

OAK @ CWS = 0.68 units to win 0.5 (-136)

Their record against the A's is the reason I'm playing this for half. They seem to have a few pitching match up advantages as well as 12-10 home record compared to Oakland's 8-16 away record. They are also the hotter teams, being 7-3 in the L3 on a 3 game win streak. Oakland are 4-6 in their L10.

OAK @ CWS UNDER 9.5 = 1.22 units to win 1 (-122)

Under's this year at home for CWS are 15-7. The Under is 7-0 in their last 7 meetings @ CWS and is 7-2 L9 overall. Oakland didn't score Over 7 runs all last month and the White Sox didn't score more than 7 at home last month.

NYM @ PIT = 1.1 unit to win 1 (-110)

The Mets are 6-1 in their last 7 and 5-2 in their last 7 at the Pirates. Mets come in the much hotter team (7-3 L10) compared to Pitt (3-7 L10). The difference between Home/Away records is negliable and I'd give Mets an advantage in all three of the first three games pitching wise.

MIL @ FLA = 0.55 units to win 0.5 (-110)

Milwuakee come in the slightly hotter team with a better record overall but FLA has the ERA advantage in all four pitching matchups. They are also 19-7 in their last 26 against MIL in FLA.

COL @ HOU UNDER 8.5 = 0.56 units to win 0.5 (-112)

Houston are 8-15 O/U at home and Colorado are also a completely different totals propositon away from home, 9-14. All 8 starting pitchers for this series are settled down and have had multiple starts which is always an advantage when chasing Under's

CIN @ STL = 0.61 units to win 0.5 (-122)

Cincinatti do seem to be a reasonable shot to take a game or two in this series with some good starters on the mound but STL are 17-9 at home and 36-15 in their last 51 H2H in STL and 5-2 overall.

CIN @ STL UNDER 8.5 = 0.57 units to win 0.5 (-114)

STL are 10-15 O/U at home and CIN are 8-15 away from home. In this series we get Volquez, Cueto and Carps in three of the four games who should ensure at least one of them stays under.

ARI @ LAD = 1.81 units to win 1 (-181)

Was going to make this a 2 unit but G1 and 3 could be very juicy if it get's that far. Three pitchers with ERA's under 3 starting for LAD with Haren the only starter a chance of comparing H2H with these pitchers. Dodgers are 18-5 at home compared to Zona 10-10 on the road. Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 in LA. I could go on but I think that should suffice.

Regular Plays

MIL @ FLA UNDER 9.5 = 0.61 units to win 0.5 (-122)

A lot I like about this game. Miller has pitched in four Under's in a row. In his L3 he has an ERA or 3.00 and this season has a 3.14 ERA at home. Suppan hasn't exactly dealing but he's been solid and can usually be trusted for 6IP + and around 3 runs. The Under is 8-0 in their last 8 in Florida and 16-5 in their last 21.

BAL @ SEA OVER 8.5 = 0.5 units to win 0.52 (+104)

Washburn blows against BAL. Since moving to SEA he has averaged giving up just over 4 ER's each start with all but one lasting Under 6 innings (6 starts). All six of these games have gone over. Over is 35-16 for BAL in their last 54 starts versus LHP on the road and 47-21 overall on the road in the last 68. It sounds like I should be playing BAL with this analysis but I don't see much value with them given the line and the fact Hill has only had three starts and got lit up last start.

NYY @ CLE UNDER 10 = 0.55 units to win 0.5 (-110)

I said earlier in the week how much these two teams loved playing Under's recentley. This time we have Carlson behind the dish to call balls and strikes who has called roughly 55% Under's in his career and is 3-5 so far this year. The Under is also 7-3 in Sowers last 10 home starts and the Under is 5-2-1 in the Yanks last 8 vs LHP on the road. Joba has also been very good away from Whiffle Ball Park pitching with an ERA of just 2.86.


I feel this write up isn't as good as it's been the last couple of days but I'm running on like 4 hours sleep and have driven for nearly 8 hours today and have now been up for 14 hours. So I apologise for that and just ignore any sloppy grammar that may be around the place.

Remember to always line shop, these are mostly just Pinny lines because some of the lines I played are already gone and some I haven't played yet.

Good luck everyone for today/tomorrow, wherever you may be in the world.

:cheers

 

[mofome]

Re: 2009 MLB

great stuff here! Gl buddy

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Thanks mo, good luck to you as well.

Just thought I'd mention before the game goes too deep that after I posted both CWS plays there was a pitching change and therefore both games are voided. I would have played both again but I only woke up in the top of the first so didn't get a chance. I will still chase both if either lose tonight.

:cheers

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Series Chase

NYM @ PIT = 1.1 unit to win 1 (-110) Loss -1.1 units

MIL @ FLA = 0.55 units to win 0.5 (-110) Won +0.5 units

COL @ HOU UNDER 8.5 = 0.56 units to win 0.5 (-112) Won +0.5 units

CIN @ STL = 0.61 units to win 0.5 (-122) Loss -0.61 units

CIN @ STL UNDER 8.5 = 0.57 units to win 0.5 (-114) Won +0.5 units

ARI @ LAD = 1.81 units to win 1 (-181) Loss -1.81 units

Regular Plays

MIL @ FLA UNDER 9.5 = 0.61 units to win 0.5 (-122) Loss -0.61 units

BAL @ SEA OVER 8.5 = 0.5 units to win 0.52 (+104) Loss -0.5 units

NYY @ CLE UNDER 10 = 0.55 units to win 0.5 (-110) Won +0.5 units

Today
Series Chase: 3-3 -2.02 units
Regular Plays: 1-2 -0.61 units
Overall: 4-5 -2.63 units

YTD

Chase Plays: 14-13 +1.14 units
Normal Plays: 8-10 -1.06 units
Overall = 18-18 +0.08 units

Not a great day, but was similar last series. Lost my two biggest plays on chases but I don't play chases to win the first game all the time.

Today sees the start of even more chases so I'll break them up into G1 and G2 groups to make it easier to read and for me to keep recrods.

Chase Plays (G2)

NYM @ PIT = 3.32 units to win 2.1 (-158)

CIN @ STL = coming later. No line yet

ARI @ LAD = 3.2 units to win 2.81 (-114)

Chase Plays (G1)

TEX @ NYY = 0.96 units to win 0.5 (-192)

I think TEX are every chance to take a game or two here but it's very hard to not chase the Yanks at home. They have a 14-9 record there and despite pitching matchups not really favoring them throughout the series they'll take one at least. Yankees are also 23-8 in their last 31 against the Rangers.

ANA @ TOR = 1.63 units to win 1 (-163)

Toronto are a different team at home which I said in a different thread earlier in the week when talking about their former 9 game losing streak, they prove this by taking two of three against Boston. In this series we get the Doc in G1 and also a favourable G3 matchup. They are 18-7 at home compared to the Angels 11-12 on the road. Head to head Toronto are 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Toronto.

ANA @ TOR UNDER 8 = 1.12 units to win 1 (-112)

This year Toronto are 11-14 O/U at home. Angels offense has been weak the last two series scoring 3 runs or under in 5 of 6. They face some good pitching through this series which will make it even tougher. G1 and 2 we also have quality starters going for LA throughout this series. The Under is 22-5-3 in the last 30 H2H in Toronto. It is 40-13-5 in the last 58 overall H2H.

KC @ TB = 0.72 units to win 0.5 (-144)

We don't have to face Zac this series which hinders KC's chances of winning any games. TB have a 13-11 Home record compared to KC's 8-12 Road record. TB are 17-8 in the last 25 H2H overall and 19-7 in the last 26 at home.

CLE @ MIN = 1.61 units to win 1 (-161)

Really like this one. The Twins are a good chance to get out of this in G1. They are 19-11 at home compared to the Indians who have a 10-17 Road record. Minnesota are 7-1 in there last 8 H2H at home. Even in the last two games I like the matchups for MIN.

CLE @ MIN OVER 9.5 = 0.54 units to win 0.5 (-108)

Minnesota have a 17-13 O/U record at home and CLE have a 19-7 O/U on the Road. The pitching matchups outside of G2 aren't exactly spectacular and even there those two pitchers have been known to have rough days and the line will probably be reasonably low in that game.

CHC @ ATL = 0.56 units to win 0.5 (-112)

Chicago are rough on the road holding only a 9-14 record. They are in poor form with a 4-6 record in the L10 and I'd consider that generous. I reckon all 3 games I'd give ATL a slight pitching advantage as well

CHC @ ATL UNDER 9 = 1.17 units to win 1 (-117)

Both teams hold better Under records than Over slightly. In G1 we get two pitchers who have been in pretty hot form over their last couple of games and in G2 & 3 we get two of each teams top starters.

SF @ WSH = 0.75 units to win 0.5 (-150)

Some people may not like this play become SF does have a bad road record (7-15). But SF are in good form (6-4 L10). Everyone knows how bad WSH are but they actually even have a worse Home record than SF has Road record (7-16) and are 2-8 in their last 10. SF are also 4-0 in there last 4 in WSH and are 9-1 overall. We also get Linc and Cain going around in 2 of the 3.

SF @ WSH UNDER 8 = 0.5 units to win 0.52 (+104)

There are no secrets how much the San Fran offense blows so even this inexperienced Washington staff are probably going to be able to keep them reasonably under control. As I said above SF have Linc and Cain going in two of the three so I couldn't see WSH doing much to either of them let alone both. To top it off the Under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in Washington between these two clubs.

Regular Plays

NYM @ PIT UNDER 7.5 = 0.57 units to win 0.5 (-114)

There are no doubting Santana's creditinals to get in Unders. The Under is 8-3 last 11 overall and 5-0 in the last 5 on five days rest. Duke has been impressive this season. Looking at starts for Overall, L3, Away and Night ERA the highest ERA is Santana's 4.05 for his L3. That is the highest by nearly a point. I also believe Ted Barrett will be calling balls and strikes, Barret is 3-7 O/U this year and and has called Unders at roughly 54% through his career. Could be wrong on that one it's a play either way.

That's it, don't see much value out there tomorrow for some reason. A few of the Chase Plays would probably be plays if that weren't going in that system but I like the units on all of them already.

Hopefully plenty of winners tomorrow :cheers

 

[NattyBumpo]

Re: 2009 MLB

I like the under NYM/Pitt play a lot. Leery to play it cause I have horrible luck in total plays. Considered a play on the under on the 5 inning line but one bad inning for Duke could kill it with the Mets offensive potential. No doubt about it though leftys do well in this ballpark and we have one decent lefty and a hall of famer going at it here.

Got time to sleep on it, it is that time.

Good luck.

BTW, no disrespect but I have a dog lovers intuition that the Dodgers could possibly get swept. Just a hunch. Hope ya kill all the others though.

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

No worries Natty, appreciate your input.

Can't always agree, we split our disagreements today so not to bad!

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Chase Plays (G2)

CIN @ STL = 1.38 units to win 1.11 (-124)

that does it for the day

good luck to everyone :cheers

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Chase Plays (G2)

NYM @ PIT = 3.32 units to win 2.1 (-158) Loss -3.32 units

CIN @ STL = 1.38 units to win 1.11 (-124) Won +1.11 units

ARI @ LAD = 3.2 units to win 2.81 (-114) Won +2.81 units

Chase Plays (G1)

TEX @ NYY = 0.96 units to win 0.5 (-192) Won +0.5 units

ANA @ TOR = 1.63 units to win 1 (-163) Won +1 unit

ANA @ TOR UNDER 8 = 1.12 units to win 1 (-112) Loss -1.12 units

KC @ TB = 0.72 units to win 0.5 (-144) Won +0.5 units

CLE @ MIN = 1.61 units to win 1 (-161) Won +1 unit

CLE @ MIN OVER 9.5 = 0.54 units to win 0.5 (-108) Loss -0.54 units

CHC @ ATL = 0.56 units to win 0.5 (-112) Won +0.5 units

CHC @ ATL UNDER 9 = 1.17 units to win 1 (-117) Loss -1.17 units

SF @ WSH = 0.75 units to win 0.5 (-150) Loss -0.75 units

SF @ WSH UNDER 8 = 0.5 units to win 0.52 (+104) Loss -0.5 units

Regular Plays

NYM @ PIT UNDER 7.5 = 0.57 units to win 0.5 (-114) Won +0.5 units

Got very lucky with the Dodgers otherwise I was staring down a pretty average day.

Today
Chase: 7-6 +0.02 units
Regular Plays: 1-0 +0.5 units
Total: 8-6 +0.52 units

YTD
Chase: 21-19 +1.16 units
Regular Plays: 9-10 -0.56 units
Overall: 30-29 +0.6 units

Plays for tomorrow

Chase Plays (G3)

NYM @ PIT = 6.16 units to win 5.42 (-114)

Chase Plays (G2)

ANA @ TOR UNDER 9 = 2.55 units to win 2.12 (-120)

CLE @ MIN OVER 8.5 = 1 unit to win 1.09 (+109)

CHC @ ATL UNDER 8 = 2.39 units to win 2.17 (-110)

SF @ WSH = 1.18 units to win 1.25 (+106)

SF @ WSH UNDER 8.5 = 1.07 units to win 1 (-107)

Normal Plays

CHC @ ATL = 0.65 units to win 0.5 (-130)

Chicago are going to be deflated after blowing a big lead late tonight. Atlanta have won their last two compared to two losses from the Cubs. Lowe is just nasty at the moment, holding a 2.82 ERA over his L3 and has only one bad start over his last 8 starts. Late in his career at LA Lowe tended to do well against LA winning four of this last give games against them and the only one he lost was when he pitched 7 innings with no ER in a 2-1 loss. Compare this to Lilly who has a 6.14 Away ERA and over his Last 4 starts against Atlanta has an ERA only a touch under 5.00.

BOS @ DET = 0.73 units to win 0.5 (-146)

Beckett is almost as hot as any pitcher out there over his L3 starts, he holds an ERA of just 1.23 over this period. His ERA and Away ERA are grossly inflated by earlier in the year blowouts in Tampa and Los Angeles. In his last 8 versus AL Central opponents the Sox are 7-1. Galaragga on the other hand has been very average. The Tigers have won just 1 of his last 6 starts, has an ERA of 8.61 in his L3 and his Home ERA is actually a few points worse than his Road ERA. At night he has an 0-5 record with a 6.88 ERA for this season.

COL @ HOU UNDER 9.5 = 0.59 units to win 0.5 (-118)

As I mentioned earlier, Colorado is a massive under team on the Road and Houston is a big under team at Home. In this game we have James Hoye calling balls and strikes. He has a 2-9 O/U record so far this seaosn. Marquis has been in very good form with a 1.14 ERA over his L3. Moehler has been very incosistent so far this year but overall is a Under pitcher holding a 10-22-1 O/U record over his last 23 starts.

OAK @ CWS UNDER 9 = 1.16 units to win 1 (-116)

Both of these pitches are in unbelieveably good form. Both hold ERA's Under 2 for there last 3 games. They also both old ERA's Under 3 for the Home/Away record. The Under is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings in Chicago H2H and 9-2 in the last 11 overall.


Always good to be in + units for the day. Hopefully get the Mets in tomorrow otherwise I'm going to have a dilemma over a G4 play.

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Chase Plays (G2)

ANA @ TOR UNDER 9 = 2.55 units to win 2.12 (-120) Push

CLE @ MIN OVER 8.5 = 1 unit to win 1.09 (+109) Won +1.09 units

CHC @ ATL UNDER 8 = 2.39 units to win 2.17 (-110) Won +2.17 units

Normal Plays

CHC @ ATL = 0.65 units to win 0.5 (-130) Loss -0.65 units

BOS @ DET = 0.73 units to win 0.5 (-146) Won +0.5 units

COL @ HOU UNDER 9.5 = 0.59 units to win 0.5 (-118) Loss -0.59 units

OAK @ CWS UNDER 9 = 1.16 units to win 1 (-116) Won +1 unit

Today
Chase Plays: 2-0-1 +3.26 units
Normal Plays: 2-2 +0.26 units
Total: 4-2-1+4.52 units

YTD
Chase Plays: 23-19-1 +4.42units
Regular Plays: 11-12 -0.3 units
Total: 34-31-1 +4.12 units

Two postponed games which I just took out when quoting. Will continue the chase with both tomorrow still.

Chase Plays (G3)

NYM @ PIT = 6.16 units to win 5.42 (-114)

SF @ WSH = no line yet

SF @ WSH UNDER = no line yet

We have one new series starting today and I'll have one chase for that.

Chase Plays (G1)

PHI @ LAD = 0.5 units to win 0.5 (+100)

While the Phillies do hold a very good Road record, the Dodgers still hold a better Home record. I will keep chasing these guys at home until they prove to me they can't get it done. They've got four games here to get it done and in the three games were there are listed starters already all three give an ERA advantage to the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 6-2 in there last 8 at home against the Phillies.

Regular Plays

NYM @ PIT UNDER 8.5 = 0.5 units to win 0.5 (+100)

Pelfrey has been very good of late, looking at his L10 starts there is only one really average start the rest have been good. His Last 4 games have all gone Under and he holds a 2.18 ERA in his L3. His one previous start versus Pittsburgh also saw him go 7 innings for 0 ER. Ohlendorf has been solid at home this season holding a 3.72 ERA at home. In his last 6 home starts the Under is 5-1 and in his last 5 overall the Under is 4-1.

COL @ HOU = 0.79 units to win 0.5 (-158)

Wandy has been just plain nasty at home this season, he holds a 3-1 record with a 0.71 ERA. He also likes the night games where he holds a 1.77 ERA. Hammel has been OK for the Rockies this year away from home but he holds a 8.31 ERA at night. Houston hold a 4-1 record in Wandy's L5 starts versus Colorado. Houston have also been dominant of late in meetings in Houston holding a 23-6 record. Houston is also the much hotter team on a 4 game win streak compared to a 2 game losing streak by Colorado.

PHI @ LAD = 1.5 units to win 1.5 (+100)

Really like this play. I just don't understand what Kershaw and the Dodgers have done at home to deserve being a Dog at home. They aren't facing Johan or Halladay or anything like that. They are facing a guy who has a 5.50 ERA over his L3 and 6.89 ERA away from home. Kershaw holds a 1.12 ERA at home and a 2.50 ERA in his L3. Hamels got lit up for 6 against the Nats last start. The Dodgers are 8-1 in Kershaw's L9 at home and 35-17 overall. I can see a few positives for the Phillies, good Road record and also Hamels has previously done well against the Dodgers but I just really like the Dodgers here.


Will update when I get a San Francisco line.

:cheers

 

[Apple]

Re: 2009 MLB

Like Houston quite a bit tomorrow.. Wandy has always been nasty at home, he is coming off a poor effort too so I'm sure he's focused.. Like your writeup on that game, makes me want to put more on it..

GL stud.

 

[diogee]

Re: 2009 MLB

Best of luck bigdeal. Nice day today. 91023i2ndw;l

 

[NattyBumpo]

Re: 2009 MLB

Way to go bro. Glad to see your doing well. I know we differ on the Dodgers but I hope you get em again tomorrow. No way the Dodgers lose four in a row at home. They might even split the series. Think Phils get game one though.

Good luck.

 

[mofome]

Re: 2009 MLB

Natttttty in the building!

:houra

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Thanks Natty and gyno, mo reckon you might have got the wrong thread but thanks for stopping by anyway!

Chase Plays (G3)

SF @ WSH G1 = 1.04 units to win 1.25 (+104)

SF @ WSH UNDER 8.5 G1 = 1 units to win 1.05 (+105)

Also I forgot about the push on the TOR under and with the Push I really have no strict rules about what I do so I just play it series by series, in this case I'm just going to try and win back what I lost in G1.

ANA @ TOR UNDER 9 = 1.39 units to win 1.12 (-124)

Also one more regular play I am adding

Regular Plays

COL @ HOU UNDER 8.5 = 0.5 units to win 0.51 (+102)

As I talked about earlier Wandy has been incredible at home. I also touched on the fact Hammel had a very good record away from Coors. He holds a 1.64 ERA on the Road. After a loss the Rockies are 10-4-1 in the Unders department. They are also 6-1 Under's on the road versus a LHP in there last 7. The Astros are 20-6-1 in there last 27 against a RHP at home. These two met earlier in the year with a 5-3 scoreline but that was in Coors so you can expect less than that this time around.

That's it for the day, good luck to you all. :cheers

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

By the way yesterday's Today record should have read +3.52 instead of +4.52. The YTD record was correct though

Chase Plays (G3)

NYM @ PIT = 6.16 units to win 5.42 (-114) Loss -5.42 units

SF @ WSH G1 = 1.04 units to win 1.25 (+104) Won +1.25 units

SF @ WSH UNDER 8.5 G1 = 1 units to win 1.05 (+105) Won +1.05 units

ANA @ TOR UNDER 9 = 1.39 units to win 1.12 (-124) Loss -1.39 units

Chase Plays (G1)

PHI @ LAD = 0.5 units to win 0.5 (+100) Loss -0.5 units

Regular Plays

NYM @ PIT UNDER 8.5 = 0.5 units to win 0.5 (+100) Loss -0.5 units

COL @ HOU = 0.79 units to win 0.5 (-158) Loss -0.79 units

PHI @ LAD = 1.5 units to win 1.5 (+100) Loss -1.5 units

COL @ HOU UNDER 8.5 = 0.5 units to win 0.51 (+102) Loss -0.5 units

Today
Chase Plays: 2-3 -5.01 units
Regular Plays: 0-4 -3.29 units
Total: 2-7 -8.3 units

YTD
Chase Plays: 25-22-1 -0.59 units
Regular Plays: 11-16 -3.59 units
Total: 36-38-1 -4.18 units

Had a shocker, well done Natty on your Philly plays, you got the right side champ. I didn't even get to check results until I got home, I was at the gym this morning and popped out my shoulder so I've been at the physio most of the day. I won't be doing write ups for this reason but if anyone is interested behind my reasoning just let me know and I'm happy to write up a couple of games.

I might feel better to do write ups later tonight or possibly tomorrow for chase's that are still going.

Chase Plays (G2)

PHI @ LAD = 1.35 units to win 1 (-135)

Chase Plays (G1)

NYM @ WSH = 0.5 units to win 0.61 (+112)

NYM @ WSH OVER 10 = 1 unit to win 1.07 (+107)

LAA @ DET = 1.68 units to win 1 (-168)

LAA @ DET UNDER 8.5 = 0.55 units to win 0.5 (-110)

TB @ NYY = 1.91 units to win 1 (-191)

TEX @ BOS = 0.68 units to win 0.5 (-136)

KC @ TOR = 1 unit to win 1.3 (+130)

SF @ FLA OVER 9 = 0.5 units to win 0.59 (+118)

CLE @ CWS = 0.63 units to win 0.5 (-126)

COL @ STL = 1.74 units to win 1 (-174)

COL @ STL UNDER 8.5 = 0.58 units to win 0.5 (-116)

ARI @ SD = 0.5 units to win 0.53 (+106)

ARI @ SD UNDER 8 = 0.65 units to win 0.5 (-130)

BAL @ OAK UNDER 8.5 = 0.58 units to win 0.5 (-116)

MIN @ SEA = 1.42 units to win 1 (-142)

MIN @ SEA UNDER 7.5 = 0.5 units to win 0.57 (+114)

MIL @ ATL = 0.56 units to win 0.5 (-112)

MIL @ ATL UNDER 8 = 0.61 units to win 0.5 (-122)

Regular Plays

Just one, have so many chases really not that much room for other plays.

BAL @ OAK -1 = 0.5 units to win 0.66 units (+132)

 

[diogee]

Re: 2009 MLB

Doesn't sound like fun bigdeal...hope there isn't too much damage to your shoulder. Sounds a bit painful and could mess up a day.

Best of luck on the chases today.

 

[NattyBumpo]

Re: 2009 MLB

You might get that Dodger chase tonight or tomorrow. I will play the Phils again on Sunday if the price is right. New kid Bastardo has my stamp of approval. Hes good.

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Chase Plays (G2)

PHI @ LAD = 1.35 units to win 1 (-135) Won +1 units

Chase Plays (G1)

NYM @ WSH = 0.5 units to win 0.61 (+112) Won +0.61 units

NYM @ WSH OVER 10 = 1 unit to win 1.07 (+107) Loss -1 unit

LAA @ DET = 1.68 units to win 1 (-168) Loss -1.68 units

LAA @ DET UNDER 8.5 = 0.55 units to win 0.5 (-110) Won +0.5 units

TEX @ BOS = 0.68 units to win 0.5 (-136) Loss -0.68 units

KC @ TOR = 1 unit to win 1.3 (+130) Won +1.3 units

SF @ FLA OVER 9 = 0.5 units to win 0.59 (+118) Loss -0.5 units

CLE @ CWS = 0.63 units to win 0.5 (-126) Loss -0.63 units

COL @ STL = 1.74 units to win 1 (-174) Loss -1.74 units

COL @ STL UNDER 8.5 = 0.58 units to win 0.5 (-116) Loss -0.58 units

ARI @ SD = 0.5 units to win 0.53 (+106) Won +0.53 units

ARI @ SD UNDER 8 = 0.65 units to win 0.5 (-130) Push

BAL @ OAK UNDER 8.5 = 0.58 units to win 0.5 (-116) Loss -0.58 units

MIN @ SEA = 1.42 units to win 1 (-142) Loss -1.42 units

MIN @ SEA UNDER 7.5 = 0.5 units to win 0.57 (+114) Won +0.5 units

MIL @ ATL = 0.56 units to win 0.5 (-112) Loss -0.56 units

MIL @ ATL UNDER 8 = 0.61 units to win 0.5 (-122) Won +0.5 units

Regular Plays



BAL @ OAK -1 = 0.5 units to win 0.66 units (+132) Won +0.66 units

Don't have time to do a record or make regular plays today because I'm about to go out and won't be in any fit condition to be making selections later, but it was a losing day today.

Series Chase (G2)

NYM @ WSH OVER 9 = 2 units to win 2.28 (+114)

LAA @ DET = 3.78 units to win 2.68 (-141)

TEX @ BOS = 2.36 units to win 1.18 (-200)

SF @ FLA OVER 9 = 1.18 units to win 1 (-118)

CLE @ CWS = 1.52 units to win 1.13 (-134)

COL @ STL = 3.57 units to win 2.74 (-130)

COL @ STL UNDER 8.5 = 2.24 units to win 2.08 (-108)

BAL @ OAK UNDER 8.5 = 1.06 units to win 1.08 (+102)

MIL @ ATL = 1.71 units to win 1.06 (-161)

TB @ NYY = 1.91 units to win 1 (-191)

MIN @ SEA = 2.47 units to win 2.42 (-102)

ARI @ SD UNDER 7.5 = 0.59 units units to win 0.5 (-118)


Hope you all have a great weekend gentleman 12io4j2w90

 

[Apple]

Re: 2009 MLB

GL Man I'm gonna root everyone of these in.. ESPECIALLY STL

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Thanks gyno, hope you have a great day/weekend my friend :cheers

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Series Chase (G2)

NYM @ WSH OVER 9 = 2 units to win 2.28 (+114) Loss -2 units

LAA @ DET = 3.78 units to win 2.68 (-141) Won +2.68 units

TEX @ BOS = 2.36 units to win 1.18 (-200) Won +1.18 units

SF @ FLA OVER 9 = 1.18 units to win 1 (-118) Push

CLE @ CWS = 1.52 units to win 1.13 (-134) Won +1.13 units

COL @ STL = 3.57 units to win 2.74 (-130) Loss -3.57

COL @ STL UNDER 8.5 = 2.24 units to win 2.08 (-108) Loss -2.24 units

BAL @ OAK UNDER 8.5 = 1.06 units to win 1.08 (+102) Loss -1.06 units

MIL @ ATL = 1.71 units to win 1.06 (-161) Loss -1.71 units

TB @ NYY = 1.91 units to win 1 (-191) Loss -1.91 units

MIN @ SEA = 2.47 units to win 2.42 (-102) Won +2.42 units

ARI @ SD UNDER 7.5 = 0.59 units units to win 0.5 (-118) Loss -0.59 units

I'll do my offical record either later tonight over here or tomorrow. It's been a long weekend and it's been pretty hectic. Been having a shocking time so far but hopefully today turns it around.

Chase Plays (G3)

NYM @ WSH OVER 9.5 = 4.16 units to win 4 (-104)

SF @ FLA OVER 8 = 1 unit to win 1.02 (+102)

COL @ STL = 8.02 units to win 6.31 units (-127)

COL @ STL UNDER 8.5 = 4.2 units to win 4.32 units (+103)

BAL @ OAK UNDER 8.5 = 2.21 units to win 2.14 (-103)

MIL @ ATL = 3.72 units to win 2.77 (-134)

TB @ NYY = 3.92 units to win 2.91 units (-135)

ARI @ SD UNDER 7 = 1.09 units to win 1.1 (+101)

Just so no one thinks I'm trying to make myself look better by not posting units I would be down nearly 10-11 units this series and therefore 6-7 overall, I've just had more important things to do this weekend.

Hope all is well with everyone around here. :cheers

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Friday

Chase Plays: 7-10-1 -4.43 units
Regular Plays: 1-0 +0.66 units
Total: 8-10-1 -3.77 units

Saturday

Chase Plays: 4-7-1 -5.67 units

YTD
Chase Plays: 36-39-3 -10.69 units
Regular Plays: 12-16 -2.93 units
Total: 48-55-3 -13.62 units

Haven't been smiling much lately, hopefully that will all change today. Got a lot of units in play today.

 

[bigdeal]

Re: 2009 MLB

Chase Plays (G3)

NYM @ WSH OVER 9.5 = 4.16 units to win 4 (-104) Loss -4.16 units

SF @ FLA OVER 8 = 1 unit to win 1.02 (+102) Loss -1 unit

COL @ STL = 8.02 units to win 6.31 units (-127) Loss -8.02 units

COL @ STL UNDER 8.5 = 4.2 units to win 4.32 units (+103) Loss -4.2 units

BAL @ OAK UNDER 8.5 = 2.21 units to win 2.14 (-103) Won +2.14 units

MIL @ ATL = 3.72 units to win 2.77 (-134) Won +2.77 units

TB @ NYY = 3.92 units to win 2.91 units (-135) Won +2.91 units

ARI @ SD UNDER 7 = 1.09 units to win 1.1 (+101) Loss -1.09 units

Deary me, STL are killing me this week.

This could well be the biggest play I'll make this year. I'm gonna downgrade it to break even because quite frankly the play is big enough without adding another 1.18 units.

Chase Plays (G4)

COL @ STL = 15.74 units to win 13.33 (-118)

And I actually just realised I buggered up my unit sizes on here for STL Under, was only supposed to be playing to win 0.5 (like G1) so will go back to that. :doh1

COL @ STL UNDER 9 = 8.27 units to win 7.52 (-110)

SF @ FLA OVER 8.5 = 2.4 units to win 2 (-120)

ARI @ SD UNDER 7.5 = 2.52 units to win 2.18 (-115)

We also have a few games starting G1 and plenty of chases I like starting there.

Chase Plays (G1)

DET @ CWS UNDER 9.5 G1 = 0.52 units to win 0.5 (-104)

The pitching matchups don't fill me with confidence but DET have a 16-11 Under record away from home and CWS have a 21-8 Under record at Home. The Under is also 20-9 in there last 29 in Chicago. We also get 5 games to get this one.

TOR @ TEX = 1.46 units to win 1 (-146)

I haven't got info on G4 starters yet but we will miss Doc which is massive when facing Toronto. All three of the first three Texas starters have five wins under there belt for the season and solid W/L records. Toronto are a different team away from home, they are just 11-17 away from home, while Texas are 18-9 at home. Texas are 24-9 H2H in there last 33 meetings in Texas as well.

MIN @ OAK = 1.38 units to win 1 (-138)

Oakland are hot right now, I'm sure I don't need to tell anyone that, 6 on the trot now for them. Meanwhile Minnesota have been very average holding a 4-6 L10 record and have been struggling to get there bats going. Oakland is 1 game above .500 at home while Minnesota are 7-18 on the road. Oakland also has better starters ERA in the first three games and the first three games the Oakland starter has more or equal wins as the Minnesota starter. Oakland is 9-4 in the last 13 in Oakland.

MIN @ OAK UNDER 8 = 0.5 units to win 0.51 (+102)

As I said Minnesota has been struggling to get there bats going of late, and they have been struggling to get them going away from home all season. The Under is 17-6 away from home for them this season. Meanwhile Oakland has a touch over .500 Under record at Home this season. All starters in this series have been getting consistent starts which I do look for in this sort of situation.

PIT @ ATL = 0.7 units to win 0.5 (-140)

The Pirates are very average on the Road with a 11-19 record. Atlanta aren't great at home, they are a touch below .500, but they do hold a 26-9 L35 record at Home H2H against the Pirates. The second two games we also get Lowe and Jair which is key to Atlanta's success.


Root in STL for me if you wouldn't mind boys. :LMAO

BOL to you all :cheers

 

[NattyBumpo]

Re: 2009 MLB

Goooo Redbirds......only thing keeping me off the Rockies was that they've won three already and will probably be more concerned about the next series with an early wake up call and I dont trust Marquis.

I have been keeping my eye on pitchers that face former teams. They seem to get it done a majority of the time. One theory I have that might nix this here. I dont trust pitchers that get farmed out by two teams in particular. St Louis and Atlanta. Usually if these coaching staffs cant get any more out of a guy, he is not much worth the effort. They seem to struggle or become mediocre at best after leaving these teams who know what to do in getting the best out of an arm.