One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

NoBS

EOG Enthusiast
There have been some nutty lines this College Football season, and this one takes the cake.

Cincinatti by 15 1/2 over Fresno State ? What. That is just crazy.

Fresno State is as good of a team as Cincinatti. I dont care about the rankings, I think we have seen what rankings mean during the first 3 weeks.

Freson State has a powerful offense that has 8 starters back from last years team. This offense was not shut down 1 time last year. This offense averaged 30 points a game last year, and it is averaging 40 points a game this year.

Fresno State just put up 34 points on Boise State. Get this. In the 15 games Boise State played last year and this year they held 10 of those 15 opponents to 10 points or less. They held 13 of those 15 opponents to 17 or less. That is how awesome the Boise State Defense is. Fresno put up 34 on them. Before the Fresno State game, Boise State has given up 8 points in 2 games. Fresno scored over 4 times that.

Oregon scored 8 on Boise. Fresno State scored 34.

In the last 2 seasons, Fresno State is 8-8. Boise State is the ONLY team to beat Fresno State by 14 points in the last 2 seasons. The Bulldogs always lose close. They have lost by 3, 3, 1, 5, 3, 3 and 5 since last season. Boise State is in fact, the only team to beat Fresno State by more than 5 points last year or this year.

The Bulldogs are a much better team than their record indicates. They play everyone tough but always lose close games. The Bulldogs have a 2 dimensional offense that the Bearcats will not be able to stop. QB Colburn has averaged about 300 yeards per game passing.

The Bulldogs have also been tearing it up on the ground. Mathews this year has 49 rushing attempts for 447 years. That is a 9 yard average. He averaged 12 1/2 yards per rush against Boise with 3 big TD runs. He averaged 6 yards a rush against Wisconsin.

Cincinatti returns 1 starter on defense this year and they havent played anyone this year. I dont care that Oregon State was ranked, Oregon State sucks. They got ranked after beating Portland State 34-7. Montana State beat Portland State by more than that. The Bearcats are ranked because they are 3-0. They have played 3 cupcakes. Yes Rutgers is way down this year, do I even have to mention SE Missouri State, and Oregon State should never have been ranked.

The Bearcats gave up 14 to Rutgers and 18 to Oregon State. Now they are playing a Fresno State offense that averaged over 30 last year and 40 so far this year.

Fresno State is traveling 2000 miles east. They did it 2 weeks ago as well. They lost by 3 points in 2OT at Wisconsin. They did it last year and won by 17 points at Rutgers. I dont think the traveling justifies the Bearcats as a 15 1/2 point favorite here.

I think the Bulldogs should win this game outright, but they seem to always lose the close games so I wont say it, I will just say this. Cincinatti is not going to beat the Bulldogs by 15 1/2 points.
 

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

Boy you are hot on these picks. I havent even looked at the lines yet but I think this pick is a golden opportunity as well. Ill follow you, GL man!
 

NoBS

EOG Enthusiast
Re: One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

Thanks Bamaguy.

If Cincinnatti plays its best game and the Bulldogs have a bad game, the Bearcats still wont cover this.
 
Re: One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

Let's take a look. Cincy is 3-0, 2-0 ATS. They have outscored their opponents by a whopping 145-36, two of those opponents being Rutgers and Oregon State on the road. Fresno State is 1-2, 1-1 ATS. They have given up 85 points in their last two games. They have scored 65 in those two contests. Their porblem is that they are 0-14 off a SU/ATS loss. We are looking for this line to go even higher. Fresno State players really got taken by the books last week as they manipulated the line to get more people on Fresno State. We will pass on this game. GL.
 

msmith2179

EOG Veteran
Re: One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

I'm not crazy about the play but your plays have been dead on. So I'm going to wait until Friday or Saturday and see what the public drives the line up to. Maybe an over play on this game as well. Thank you and Good luck NoBS!
 

msmith2179

EOG Veteran
Re: One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

When they played Wisconsin what time did it start? When do you think they will arrive into Cincinnati to get adjusted to the different time zone? Thank you if you know
 

NoBS

EOG Enthusiast
Re: One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

Let's take a look. Cincy is 3-0, 2-0 ATS. They have outscored their opponents by a whopping 145-36, two of those opponents being Rutgers and Oregon State on the road. Fresno State is 1-2, 1-1 ATS. They have given up 85 points in their last two games. They have scored 65 in those two contests. Their porblem is that they are 0-14 off a SU/ATS loss. We are looking for this line to go even higher. Fresno State players really got taken by the books last week as they manipulated the line to get more people on Fresno State. We will pass on this game. GL.


Bigdaddy,

Records dont mean anything. Fresno State has played an undeniably tougher opponent all 3 weeks. That whopping 145-36 that Cincy has outscored its opponents by was sure helped with its 70-3 win over SE Missouri State. They didnt even beat Oregon State by this many points and Fresno State is a better team without a doubt.

Cincy's schedule has been laughable. They beat SE Miss State who has 1 win against Quincy. They beat Oregon State who beat UNLV by 2 points. Beating UNLV by 2 is shameful. The Beavers also beat Portland State - by less than Montana State was able to beat them by. Cincy also beat Rutgers who beat Howard and then struggled Mightily to beat FIU.

I think people dont realize just how bad Cincy's schedule has been. Rutgers is way down this year and Oregon State is seriously overrated.

Fresno State is 1-2 but they have played at wisconsin and vs. Boise State. The Broncos barely covered 16 against the Bulldogs, you think the Bearcats are gonna win by more than Boise State did ?? Not going to happen.

Like I said, The Bulldogs are 8-8 last year and this year, But BOISE STATE is the only team that has beaten them by 2 TD's. The Bulldogs may lose games but not by this many points.

Cincinatti has a very vunerable defense. Only 1 returning starter. I cant help but laugh at the fact that bettors all across the US will jump all over Cincy -16 or -17 but maybe only 5% can name 1 player on the Cincy Defense. This defense has not been tested. I would be concerned that it gave up 18 to Oregon State because Fresno State will score twice that.

Who has stopped this Bulldogs offense this year or last ? Noone. They got 31 on the road against a better Wisconsin D and 34 against a vastly vastly superior Boise State D.

I think the Early game on the east coast talk is much ado about nothing. When I was in College ( not that long ago ), I know the football team was up practicing at 5 am or 6 am before classes began. I assume thats the norm at the college level. Its not like they sleep until noon every day. They will probably sleep later on Saturday than they normally do.

Cincinatti will not beat Fresno State by anything close to 16.
 

NoBS

EOG Enthusiast
Re: One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

Thanks for all the responses everyone.

Didnt mean to get so long winded on that last post.
 

oakparkguy

EOG Dedicated
Re: One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

I think Nobs' schedule analysis is right on. Neither of these teams has a Dee, and sixteen (the current line) is a lot to give if you can't stop the other team no matter how good your own offense is.

Another factor to watch out for is the weather. Thunderstorms are in the extended forecast for the Cincy area for the weekend.

This might be a great fade-the-over play if bad weather is likely at game time because I have to believe the over will be set pretty high.

I am going to put a unit on Fresno and make a note to check the weather as we get closer to gametime.
 

pags11

EOG Dedicated
Re: One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

great stuff nobs, I agree completely with all that you are saying other than Cincy's defense is better than Wisconsin and that going against Brian Kelly isn't fun...that being said I agree with what you are saying and am on Fresno here as well...
 

NoBS

EOG Enthusiast
Re: One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

Pags,

I just noticed that you actually had this Fresno State pick posted before I did. That makes me feel even better that this was the first pick for both of us.

I dont understand how this has been bet up to 17. I dont see what people are looking at that makes them want to take Cincy minus 2 TD's and a FG. I think a lot of bettors see a ranked team at home vs. an unranked team and assume it will be a blowout. There are a lot of unranked teams that are better than some of the teams ranked #15-#25. We see it every week.

I just cant see Cincy winning this game by double digits.
 

Illini_in_AZ

EOG Enthusiast
Re: One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

For what it's worth, it's at 17 right now on BetJamaica.

To tell you the truth, I don't feel a side on this one yet. I'm a big Cincy believer, but Fresno has played tough ball this year... 17 is a lot of points...
 

mofome

Banned
Re: One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

i may take it at 17. i respect both of you guys a lot. i personally think fresno is a joke, but maybe im missing something.
 

NoBS

EOG Enthusiast
Re: One Play I LOVE - FRESNO STATE + 15 1/2

thanks msmith.

The linesmakers are the man for giving us such silly lines.
 
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