Bamaguy Week 6

BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Well as you all know I have been struggling in college foots this year. I have steadily improved until week 4 when i finally broke through. Finished the week 16-6 +13.7 units. :+excited-

As for EOG, I made some late plays at the Kentucky game this weekend over the phone, so my record on my posted plays was 10-2! Not bad whatsoever!

Here is my weekly breakdown....
Week 1 4-10 ( dont remember, will look up later, very bad though)
Week 2 5-10 (-7.9)
Week 3 8-8 (-6.9)
Week 4 7-6 (+.4)
Week 5 16-6 (10-2 on EOG) +13.7 units

There is always a downside.... my biggest play last week, as bad as i hate to say it, was auburn. But, thanks to me listening to the UT lovers I played it small. Kinda mad at myself. Also, I followed probably the most repsectable capper on here on some NFL games today and lost my ass. Still up for the weekend, but not nearly as much as I was.

I am hoping that things are finally getting back to the way they used to be. There are some very very very good lines this week. Here are my leans:

Bama -6 - this would be my early play of the week. My tide has become a covering machine. Dont let the fact that Miss played well against Vandy fool you. Vandy is awful, Nutt is not in Saban's league. I will say this, the Rebs will be the most physical team Bama has played yet. They have a strong D-line to go against the bama run. Secondary is solid as well. Bama played AWFUL against UK this weekend. The boys just werent motivated to win. Dont think they wont be ready to take heads off this saturday in oxford. Tide covers, easy.

Arkansas +2.5 - I have played Auburn all year but may not this week. Both defenses suck, bad. Especially against the pass. Its gonna be in Fayettenam and Arky is hungry for a big SEC win after last week. It will be close, but I like the hogs to win outright at home.

Florida -8.5 - Still think LSU is one of the most overrated and luckiest teams in football. This was a play for me under 14, and definitely under 10. Tebow will be back and will dominate LSU. Big statement game for those questioning the Gators.

Michigan st -4 - am i missing something? maybe dantonio will know more. The illini are awful. MSU is alot better than their record indicated, just ask michigan. Dont understand this one.

Army +11.5 - Vandy should never be a favorite against a D-1 team
UGA -1
GT +3 - WTF???
Kentucky +11 - Dont get this one either.

wow, lines are already taking off. lots more insight later. let me know what you guys think.
 
BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Wanted to go ahead and update my card for my actual plays so far:
3.5* Kentucky +11.5
3* Bama -6
2* GT +3
2* Wiscy +14
2* Florida -9
 
G8RMANJAX

G8RMANJAX

2
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Congrats on a great week pards!!!

I am all over Florida this week. They are absolutely going to expose LSU as a #4 fraud like S.C. did to Mississippi. They should have been exposed the last two weeks, but immaturity and depth of talent on the part Miss St. & Ga prevented it. Won't happen with the Gators.

I am somewhat glad they have pulled those two out, better than having a wounded team coming home to face the #1 team. Those wins will continue to give them the false security that they have what it takes to line up with Florida.
 
Junkyarddog47

Junkyarddog47

2
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

We played Ga. Tech and got 4.5 on the lead. Something is definately wrong with that line. That game really concerns us now. You know the old saying, if it looks too good to be true.....

We are not ready to pull the trigger on 'Bama just yet. We want -3 or better. The fact is that 'Bama does not play well at Ole Miss, and has not covered in the past 4 years there.
 
BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

thanks closer and sharp!

G8R - couldnt agree with you more... gotta ask you, whats the deal with tebow? surely he is gonna play...

As for bama... ole miss gives us trouble...we have pretty much screwed them the past four years. The physicality and talent of ole miss worries me a little. But, look for Bama to REALLY open things up this weekend. Lots of schemes and probably some completely different formations on offense. I havent bet the tide much in the past but this game has got dominance written all over it.. Ill be shocked if we dont win by atleast 10-14.
 
G8RMANJAX

G8RMANJAX

2
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

BamaGuy said:
thanks closer and sharp!

G8R - couldnt agree with you more... gotta ask you, whats the deal with tebow? surely he is gonna play...
Click to expand...


To be honest sir... the boys are as tight-lipped as ever about this. Tebow is a gamer, we all know this, so my thoughts are he will be playing. I do find it hard to believe that with his wrecking ball mentality and style that this is his first ever concussion. I am curious as to how much he will try to deliver a blow like he has done in the past in fighting for extra yardage.

I believe everyone else will finally step up their games in an effort to prevent Tebow from having to try and do it all. The word around the campus from a couple of reliable sources is that everyone on the team is saying that "it is time to step up and become better playmakers in order to take the pressure off Tim". He is such a great leader that these guys are ready to run through a wall for him.

I will make a couple of calls this afternoon to find out what happened at practice today.
 
Junkyarddog47

Junkyarddog47

2
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

As I have prevoiusly stated, this is one of the few times that people can get to see first hand, how high rollers, wise guys, and cartels can manipulate a line. All it takes is one false rumor to hit the presses, and the line sinks. Then another false rumor and it can soar. We are going to play a middle on this game. Took LSU and the 11.5 like all the high rollers did at the start. I don't see a problem with middling 10 or 11 here. We would love to get 7, but we will take what we can. O.K. all of you Red Baton fans. Dump your load on the big hometown dogs. The sooner the line drops to 7 or less, the sooner we get down and don't have to watch this foolishness any more. I know, it will probably never drop that low, but we can hope.
 
M

M.W.

EOG Member
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

3.5* Kentucky +11.5
3* Bama -6
2* GT +3
2* Wiscy +14
2* Florida -9
Click to expand...

I like all the SEC plays, but I'm looking at the other side of the Wisconsin game. What's your take on that game?
 
BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

MW - I feel like Wiscy matches up well with Ohio St in many areas. However, the SEC is my expertise, i dont do nearly as well with other conferences. The main reason I am on them is because Gyno has them as his highest play. He is a capper that I respect the heck out of and is a winner. Im sure he wouldnt mind asking you why he likes them so much.:cheers
 
The Seer

The Seer

EOG Dedicated
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

gynecologist said:
How come no Army yet?? I like them, seems like no one else does tho.
Click to expand...

I usually like the Vandy under when they are the dog. I want to see the over when it comes out along with Auburn over @ no more than 65. I am leaning towards Army +11 now. With favorites tending to get bigger numbers later in the week, I am waiting for a better number but +10.5 is likely enough. Please, no more questions about how stupid BYU -24 was.

TROY STATE (-6.5) over Middle Tenn WIN
Nebraska (-2.5) over MISSOURI
Alabama (-6.5) over MISSISSIPPI
TCU (-9.5) over AIR FORCE
SMU (+6.5) over East Carolina




Last week
COLORADO +605 @ 0.17 bet
Southern Miss -9.5
BYU -24
SMU Under 51.5 (53)
LOSERS=-3.47 UNITS @ -1.10 vig

COLORADO +17
Alabama -16
LSU (+3)
LSU 2/3 unit X +155 ML =103.85
USC (-4.5)
LSU Under 50
SMU (+28)
ADDING Vanderbilt under 44
ADDING Under BYU 64?
WINNERS =9.04 UNITS
net winnings = +5.57 units

http://forums.eog.com/college-football-betting/the-seers-2009-cfb-picks-243478.html
 
blue45

blue45

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

3* Bama -6
2* GT +3
2* Wiscy +14
2* Florida -9

I love those picks. got different Spreads though. I got Florida -8 Wiscy +16.5, Gt +2.5, Bama -6.

Your Wisconsin pick is my 10* play. Wow we got a lot of the same picks this week!
Were going to take it to the bank with those picks!:cheers
 
BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Thanks for all of the compliments gentlemen....

Gyno - I am all about some Army this week. I am still watching the line, it jumped to 11.5 last night so I was seeing if it would climb more. I am really pissed about my Wiscy and Florida lines. Florida has dropped and Wiscy was all the way back up to 16.5. I still think they are winners though. Just now getting out of class, about to look at the lines....

Here's my updated card from last night... I was write out some small discussions later...
3.5* Kentucky +11.5
3* Bama -6
2* GT +3
2* Wiscy +14
2* Florida -9
2* SMU +7
3* Indiana +7 (NoBs special right here)
I will also play most if not all of oddshunters totals. Guy is a genious. Will not count them in my plays though.



3.5* Kentucky +11.5
3* Bama -6
2* GT +3
2* Wiscy +14
2* Florida -9
 
blue45

blue45

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

don't worry about the lines. Wisconsin, GT, Bama, and Florida are all winners!
 
BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

I just realized that my copy and paste went through twice on the post above, so ignore that.

As for week 6... this has got to be the biggest week with the best value this whole season. I made over 13 units last week in CFB, Im gonna be upset if I dont make 20 this week.

Btw, on a side note, I hit a 5 team parlay last week! I never post them because they are dumb and losing propositions, but I did hit it. It's the best I've hit since a 3 team last season.

Back to the business at hand, I am going to do a brief discussion on why I like the games below. There are still more that I will be playing later, watching the line movements..

3.5* Kentucky +11.5 - What has S.C. done this year? Nothing besides beating a VERY overrrated Ole Miss team. The Cocks are well coached however, and Garcia looks to be much improved. The D is solid as usual. On the flip side... Kentucky is pretty damn inconsistent. Who knows who will show up for the Cats and if they can keep from making stupid mistakes. But I like Kentucky in this spot. 11.5 is alot of points to give to the Cocks for an SEC game. I wouldnt expect but 10 or so against Vandy. Kentucky played Bama very well last week, granted Bama played like shit most of the game. I am really just going off of what I've seen. Not looking at a whole lot of matchups, I just cant see S.C. winning by more than 10. Wouldnt be a bit surprised to see an upset either.
[SIZE=+0]
[/SIZE]3* Bama -6 - Are the books just asking to get robbed this weekend? The fact of the matter is even though I have a huge confidence about this game, it's still kinda scary. Ole Miss is the most physical, talented team that Bama will have faced yet this year. They have phenominal speed on both sides of the ball, and they like to hit you in the mouth. The Rebs are sick of getting screwed by the Tide. Nutt is in his spot, lying low waiting to pull a big upset. Alot of factors pointing towards Ole Miss.. but.. it's not gonna happen. Bama has played SO conservative all year. Not pulling many linemen, not schemeing, playing a base 3-4 defense. Thy have basically run right at the D the whole year while letting McElroy take his occasional shots. Can you blame them? Saban knows how good Ole Miss can be. I've already said it before but this is the week that I believe Bama really opens up the playbook. I could see Ole Miss hanging around for a half like most teams have done with Bama, but something tells me this game may be dominated from start to finish.

2* GT +3 -Just how is FSU favored? That staff is so screwed up right now that they probably couldnt beat montana state tech. Bowden needs to go, he is ruining what he built. The Tech option attack will pound FSU the entire game. I really look for a blowout here. Will be shocked if it's close. Hopefully the FSU that played BYU won't show up for this one, I dont think they will.

2* Wiscy +14 -This line dropped and I got on it. Looks like that was the wrong decision. Everyone seems to love this play. Im simply a follower.

2* Florida -9 -I expected Tebow to be cleared by now and this line to be in the double digits. Turns out its dropped and I made another bad decision. But, I see no need why 7 or 9 points really matters. The bottom line is that the most overrated team in the country is going to get exposed in a major way this weekend, no matter who the Gator QB is. No need to go into more detail on this one.

2* SMU +7 - I was high on ECU before the season but they just havent produced whatsoever. On the othet hand, SMU really gave TCU a better game than the score indicated. Jones has his team playing well. I wouldnt be surprised to see SMU win. ECU will have fits with this offense.

3* Indiana +7 (NoBs special right here) - Well, NoBS continues his streak. How could you not follow him? I feel like this is a good pick but it does worry me. Virginia is one of those teams that you never know what your gonna get. They very well may show up like they did last year at the end of the season and dominate. I just dont think its gonna happen.

Here are some other lines I'm looking to play, just watching movement...

la tech +11 - I just dont see how this line has become so high. La tech isnt a bad ball club and there is no reason why they cant hand with nevada. Anyone else agree?

Mich st -4 - No one is on this. Seems like traditionally this is a huge letdown spot for mich st. Illinois is going with a new QB which could be their answer, but i doubt it. Im still not sure what ill do about this game but its a possibility.

I wanna play kansas, nebraska and duke, just dont know if i can make myself do it.

Army +11 -Vandy should never be a favorite against a halfway decent team. Vandy has been very dissapointing this year. I think Army keeps this very close. Just watching the line.

Houston +1.5 not sure about this either. Houston looked awful last week. State has been promising but just cant see them stopping this offense or making much of their own. I have a good bud who loves this one, I may follow him

Georgia +2 - really? this game is against the 2nd most overrated team in the country. UT sucks, bad, bad, bad. Uga isnt alot better but they are better than UT. Just how is UT gonna move the ball? Crompton damn sure isnt gonna throw it. Seems like Auburn exposed this great UT D last week. I like the Dawgs.

TCU -10 - i just like TCU too much. they are too good. its simple on this one.

Now, I have one game that I'm not going to play but I think this would be my upset alert of the week in the SEC..

Arkansas +2.... I hate Auburn but have bet them and won alot of money with them this year. They are a solid, for real team. When this line first came out I almost played Arky, then I switched to Auburn, now Im just laying off. Arkansas has really come about in my opinion. They played very well dominating Texas A&M last week. Auburn looked just as good against UT. My point is that I think Arkansas' defense is finally settling in. Auburn will not be able to stop Arkansas and Arky wont be able to stop Auburn. I am just saying that I think there's a good chance that Patrino could get a big win... hell, I may even play Auburn, what a toss-up.
 
BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Gonna put 1 unit on Nebraska -3. Alot of guys seem to like em that i trust. I leaned this way anyways, simnply because I feel as if their D shuts down Mizzou. GL everyone.
 
BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Kinda worried about the kentucky play now, didnt know both of their corners were out. I still think its a winner. Looks like the Nebraska play was solid. Too bad I only had one unit on them. Ive still gotta finish my card, gonna be alot of plays..

Week six currently 1-0! would love another 15-5 week or something along those lines. GL to everyone!
 
B

Bamafats

2
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Great looking card BamaG !! Like your picks on Georgia Tech, SMU, Indiana and I'am on your Arkansas for sure !! Good luck man and cash'em :cheers

Bamafats............................................................
 
BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Thanks Bama. Just to clarify, I am not going to be on Arky. I dont know if their D stepped it up some last week, or if A&M is just that bad. I think Aubie could get upset, but the play is still definitely auburn. Sorry for the confusion. Best of luck to you this week!
 
The Seer

The Seer

EOG Dedicated
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Arkansas +2.... I hate Auburn but have bet them and won alot of money with them this year. They are a solid, for real team. When this line first came out I almost played Arky, then I switched to Auburn, now Im just laying off. Arkansas has really come about in my opinion. They played very well dominating Texas A&M last week. Auburn looked just as good against UT. My point is that I think Arkansas' defense is finally settling in. Auburn will not be able to stop Arkansas and Arky wont be able to stop Auburn. I am just saying that I think there's a good chance that Patrino could get a big win... hell, I may even play Auburn, what a toss-up.
Click to expand...

both teams D can stop chit. Bet the over 66.
 
BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Hey guys, have made some more picks and upgraded others, still have a TON im looking at but want to go ahead and post this just to keep track of this week...

1* Nebraska -3 Winner
3* Bama -6
3.5* Kentucky +11
2* Florida -9
3* GT +3
3* Wisky +14
2* SMU +7
3* Indiana +7
2* Duke +15

Also tracking alot of Oddshunter/stay positive's totals.

I am interested in the Nevada/La Tech game. I feel about the same as I did about Troy. I wish I would have played it now. Im leaning La Tech +11. Any advice?
 
BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Glad I didnt bet La Tech tonight. I am done with my card, other than a crazy parlay or 2 which I will not post. I did hit the 5 teamer last week, pretty wild...

3.5* Kentucky +11
3* Bama -6
3* GT +3
3* Wisky +14 ( 1 unit is on wisky +16)
3* Indiana +7
2* Florida -9
2* SMU +7
2* Duke +15
1.5* Michigan +8
1.5* Col St +8
1.5* Kansas -19
1.5* Army +10
1.5* Houston +3
1.5* Auburn -2.5
1.5* FIU -5.5
1* Nebraska -3 WINNER

1.8* Teaser
Wisky +25.5
TCU -1/2
Fresno pk

Yeah my card is huge, believe it or not, there were more plays that I liked. I am feelin another big week though so im not too concerned. Im also on about 15 totals, i dont post totals and alot of them are oddshunters anyways. GL to everyone this week! :cheers
 
diogee

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Love the card overall BamaGuy...either on or lean to most of those plays.
 
G8RMANJAX

G8RMANJAX

2
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Good luck my SEC brother!!! I'm drinking the Saban kool-aid today.

May our teams take care of the business at hand today so that we may meet in Atlanta!!!!

Does the SEC get any better than today????

Ala - Miss
Aub - Ark
GA - Tenn
Fla - LSU

Now this is what Saturdays in the fall was made for!!!!!
 
BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Thanks Diogee!

G8R - You are right, this saturday is amazing for football! Its a rare occasion that I'm not at a game and actually get to watch all of these. I plan to sit in the lazy boy all day. When dinner is ready, they can bring me a plate. Im not moving. But yeah, roll tide and go gators my man!
 
BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Wells guys, its been another GREAT week! Seems like im really starting to hit my stride. I am currently 20-9 with one play left. Ill wiat on it and post my final record with units tomorrow! Hope everyone else is doing well too!
 
G8RMANJAX

G8RMANJAX

2
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Way to go my SEC brother!!!

Looks like a head on collision for our two squads in the G-Dome. May go out on an early limb here and call for the under in that match up.

Two of the best defenses I have seen in the SEC during the same year in a long long time.

What could be better for us. We both win over ranked teams to take the lead in our respective divisions, we both get to watch our hated rivalry (Aub for you, Ga for me) get absolutely hammered. :+excited- Plus I get the pleasure of FSU getting slapped around and you were on G.Tech. 91023i2ndw;l

WOW, it was such a great Saturday for us both.

Let's keep the money train rolling this week brother! :cheers
 
BamaGuy

BamaGuy

EOG Addicted
Re: Bamaguy Week 6

Gyn and G8r, thanks alot guys, we are all gonna kill it next week...

Totals for the week... 20-9-1 +9.87 units! Not too bad at all. Im gonna get week 7 thread going later tonight!
 
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