HANDICAPPING TIPS

[Cloverleaf]

These are handicapping tips offered by many well know handicappers from across the country. Many are spot on and worth a players attention. If you have other tips to add, please do. Come football season, all of us will need all the help we can get.

1. Three things can happen when you bet on a dog, and two of them are good.

2. Remember to stay disciplined and shop for the best lines from the most reputable sources.

3. Don't be afraid of dogs; they cash just as often as favorites.

4. Read local newspapers every day.

5. Focus your efforts on one or two conferences where you can develop a real feel for the teams.

6. Sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint. Being conservative and patient pays off.

7. Accepting LOSSES....Learning from LOSSES....and budgeting LOSSES.

8. Invest with your head and not your heart.

9. Bet within your means and keep a long term approach.

10. Bet on teams to have an emotional letdown after a big win.

11. You must have unbridled desire to succeed and be willing to make adjustments when change is warranted.

12. Stay unemotional.

13. Formulate a game plan and make adjustments accordingly.

14. Avoid public underdogs. When the points look too good to be true, they usually are.

15. Never bet more than 2% of your bankroll on a single game.

16. Always shop for the best price.

17. Don't invest or trust in bad teams no matter how good they may look.

18. Play all games for the same amount of money.

19. Use proper money management; it's one of the key ingredients to a winning recipe.

20. Never force a play for the sake of having action.

21. Look closely at teams when they are playing in a similar game they have played in the past.

22. When you win on Saturday, don't give it back on Sunday.

Great food for thought..........................:cheers

 

[Junkyarddog47]

Re: HANDICAPPING TIPS

Interesting that you start out with a quote from Mark Lawrence. Mark loves to play the dogs. His philosophy is that you still can win playing a dog even if they lose. All you have to do is to cover. The fact that they only cover around 48% of the time seems to slip his mind every so often. Still, Mark is good people and an expert in the Technical end of Handicapping. Other tips that are worth while IMO:

#2. Stay disciplined. This is what separates the pro gambler from the amateur. The amateurs have no discipline at all. I think a review of threads in here will prove this.

#5. This is good advice for those starting out. This is the exact advice that I gave in an interview at another site. Sorry Blondie, you do not have an exclusive on me.

#6. This defines the very nature of the game. Remember it.

#8. This is why you will never see this USC grad have any action on any USC game, for or against, side or total.

#10. This is just a "Situational" play. These games are also called "trap" games, "sandwich" games, and other names.

#12. This is another big taboo of amateur players. They lose because of what they think is a bad call and cry for months about it. They are so upset about that one loss, they totally overlook the other losses they have taken because of the one bad loss. A Loss is a Loss. Forget about it.

#18. This is the key. Do not dump all of your winnings on a certain day on a team because you think you are "hot". This is how to go 4-1 and end up even for a day. Remember,you are going to have days when you go 1-4. Do not chase either. That is what pays for the pretty ladies and the free drinks they serve in the sportsbooks in Vegas.

#20. There are so many suckers in here who have to have action on every game televised. This is how books make their money. The weeknight games are so easy to manipulate, you now see more and more of them. The player has very little, if any choice of what games to play, because there is only 1-3 games that day.

#22. That is called money management. It also goes along with being disciplined. Develop a money management system that allows you to bankroll winnings as the season progresses.

Now for the ones I DISAGREE with:

#1. To a degree. While two out of three things that can happen to dogs is good, the one bad thing happens more often. Being a favorite or a dog should not determine whether you play on a team or not.

#4. By reading a local newspaper every day, you are going to get a slanted view of the team that the paper is covering. If you need injury info, there are plenty of unbiased sources on the net to find it.

#14. What is a "Public" Underdog? Is there a "Public" Favorite? This makes no sense to me. You cap the game and compare your line to the line being offered. It is that simple. The object of the game is to FIND lines that are too good to be true.

#16. If what they mean by that is to spend all of your tie looking for team a at -3, -108 instead of -110, I disagree. Too many people spend way too much time looking to save a penny or two on the vig, and not nearly enough time figuring out which team to play. It is much more important to find the best line than it is to find the best price.

#17. Too generalized. What is a "bad team"? A team under 500? A team under .333? Last year Utah State went 4-8 S/U but 8-3 ATS. Were they a "bad team"? Conversely, Texas goes 13-1 S/U, but 5-8-1 ATS. Were they a "good team"?

#21. I really have no idea of what the means. No two games are alike. Just how far is the "past"? A season? Three seasons" The same season?

And here is one of my golden rules: "There is only ONE reason why you lose a wager. That reason is because you wagered on the WRONG TEAM." Period. No excuses. If your team loses because of a bad call, that is on you, for wagering on a team that could be put in that position. You have also won as many games as you have lost due to questionable calls. Live with it. A win is a win, and a loss is a loss. The more you bitch and moan about a"bad beat", the more you will lose in the long run. Just move on. If you play the same amount on every game like you should, the next game is just as important as the previous game. That is the attitude you must have to be successful.

 

[pvcpipe]

Re: HANDICAPPING TIPS

Clover,

I love #14.

One of my favorite betting angles is fading a public-backed underdog by using the different consensus sites available. If you can get a strong sample of +65% backing a dog.....lay the lumber!

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: HANDICAPPING TIPS

One rule I live by during football season is #18.

"Play all games for the same amount of money."

I feel sorry for people who have a winning record yet are losing money because of poor money management.

 

[Junkyarddog47]

Re: HANDICAPPING TIPS

It happens all of the time. Chasers are the absolute worst. They always seem to run out of money just before they would have finally gotten even.

 

[winkyduck]

Re: HANDICAPPING TIPS

I would add one more:

DON'T be afraid to "walk away" from a game

If the Dog WAS +7 and now they are +3 (Or other way around with the Fave) it doesn't matter how much you may like the side - WALK AWAY because taking the far worst of a line will get you killed in the long run. How many games do we lose by the hook or point when we get the BEST line possible - so why play a side that is getting 4-ish points to the worst

I would add one more VERY soilid piece of advice:

If In Las Vegas - head down to the book earlier than usual one weekend morning when CFB or NFL is going on. Listen for the guy with the BIGGEST MOUTH and go to him. Pay very clear attention to what he says and if he has friends around him even better. He will usually be very loud in saying what he feels the best plays are. Listen for him to use the word "Lock(s)" and when he does IMMEDIATELY bet the OTHER side. Fading the biggest mouth in the Sportsbook is ALWAYS a profitable thing. The smart guys NEVER say a word beforehand


20.) SOLID - you have no idea how many times I will see someone say.........I am going to the game and want to have a bet on it - which side should i play? WRONG! While there is nothing better than going to a game and seeing your play WIN - the feeling of going to a game and seeing your play LOSE is far worse

 

[Junkyarddog47]

Re: HANDICAPPING TIPS

Excellent advice. I always have my own line, which I use to determine my wagers. If I have a team at +3, and the line drops from +7 to +3 before I can get down on it, the game becomes a "pass."

Another trick I use in Vegas is to get to the book early, look for the big mouth macho males from New York, and fade them if they are going off. Jet's fans are a great source of information. If they are going off about the Jets, it's fade time. If they are more cautious, then I may make a play on them. Northeast gamblers have been the source of many a profit for Westcoast gamblers.

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: HANDICAPPING TIPS

I played high school and college football but never cared for betting on sports until later in life. In 1975 I went to Las Vegas for the first time and stayed at the Sands. A football buddy's dad was a heavy hitter out there and set me up. No charge...except I took $500 and lost it all at the Crap table and lord was I hooked. I have learned so much about sports gaming from the simple game of craps. 35 years later I still love the crap table....anything else at a Casino is a waste of time to me.

As some of you have mentioned above about loud characters shouting about their football teams. I learned and studied the guys who seem to always win at a crap table. Other than the occasional loud mouth "hey look at me showoff". The true winners at craps where the guys who where quiet and stayed away from
attention.

I love sports betting now....but the best wagering game in the world is playing at a crap table. Same as sports betting...you have the smart guys, the stupid guys, the crazy guys, the dumbasses, the I don't care if I win or lose players, the PLAYERS WHO NEVER TAKE THE TIME TO LEARN THE GAME and so play the same stupid bets over and over. God almighty I see the same thing year after year in betting sports. UNIT BETS are a CANCER and this disease kills young people. They are $10 bettors and listen to BS artist who tell them to be 5 units, 10 units, 25 units, 50 units and other GODDAMN SILLYNESS. How in the hell is a college student working his ass off to get through college who likes to place a small wager bet 25 units ($250) on a game some DIRTBAG is plugging. PIMPS.

The unit stuff got me and my gang band here last year because we hate "Suckege Promoters". We promise not to tell anyone how to bet unless we feel some young guys are being taken advantage of. Just can't handle that. Hurts these kids. Hurts us.

Wagering on college football can be fun....but it also can destroy people who don't have a clue.....I'm just asking we all be up front and honest....nothing else.

 

[crazytrain]

Re: HANDICAPPING TIPS

Sound advice from you all. What it do Winky? Good to see ya back with some good advice..........My strongest plays come from the smaller markets like the MAC for instance. Always seems the linesmakers overlook some of these because they want the sharpest lines where the most action is going.

 

[heart222]

Re: HANDICAPPING TIPS

hi the piece about going to a game i have to bet is so wrong. i share seson tix for wash caps and when i go to game no action i dont want to root for anempty net goal to cover the over or a tie to go to overtown. tix are priicy and i antto enjoy the esperiance. my caps play 82 games im sure i cannot bet on 10-12 games. looking forward to college season the info from several of you here is terrific. its nice to be at site with limitd number of bashers. i will try and contribute when i can but i am not an every day contributer possibly hockey. is nyreb and cannon coming back anyone know? regards all heart222

 

[Cloverleaf]

Re: HANDICAPPING TIPS

This thread was posted last month but with the gained interest in college football as the season draws near, thought I'd give it a second run. May be helpful especially with some of the bullshit that's been flying around lately.

New guys who are just starting out......"READ EVERYONE...TRUST NO ONE". It's your money and don't let any self promoter steal it from from you.

The quote is from John Kelley who runs this place.....I agree!

 

[Junkyarddog47]

Re: HANDICAPPING TIPS

Absolutely. Guys, it is your money. If you are not sure, you should not be playing. Despite what some B.S'ers in here are posting, the fact is that if you hit 58% of your plays, you will turn a profit and should be pleased with your results. Those numbers are for the plays that you are SURE of. So never be afraid to take a "pass"on a game that you are not sure of. There are two very important rules to remember. First, not wagering on a loser is more important than wagering on a winnner. The reason is the vig. If you wager $100.00 on a loser that you are not sure of, and $100.00 on a winner that you are not sure of, you are going to lose the vig. You will have wagered $220.00 and collected $210.00. By not wagering anything, you lose nothing. Next, no matter what the numbers tell you, if it just doesn't feel right, PASS on it. To be successful, again not withstanding what the B.S. artists in here will say, you have to have the ability to sense when something is just not right. J.K. has the right idea. Trust NO ONE, when it comes to actual play selection. Read what everyone has to say, develop your own system, and make your picks accordingly.