WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

[WINBET]

All you read nowadays on Forums is Idiots talking about EV this EV that, Spreadsheet tells me this, Books have got it wrong statistically, my model says 3 star bet.
ALL BOLLOCKS.
Dont let these wasters who are self delusional convince you that they have found the holy grail ( an easy way to find winners instead of long hours of hard work) In 30 years of Bookmaking the only Bettor that I or any other bookmaker feared was one who not only knew his figures (not a tough assignment) but had a vast depth of knowledge in the Sport they were betting. I've even read posts saying its best to know nothing of the Sport your betting, words are cheap on a sports Forum so beware.
Probably the biggest failure to these new age punters is that all their methods are shot down by a lack of latest info, which makes their calculations laughable. Bottom line is, the main priority to winning at any sport is more than just betting smart numbers, its putting in the donkey work to know why prices are changing and evaluating that info.

Dont fall for that nonsense that you can win at Sports betting by knowing fuck all but watching line movement or playing silly games with Maths. Just look at that joker Grainchew on SBR, waffling on in Maths till the cows come home yet probably couldnt name a linebacker in the NFL 12io4j2w90:cheers

 

[Jimmy Hoffa]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

BOLLOCKS is right!

 

[John Kelly]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Decimal-point sports handicappers have their place. I think the math guys are more adept at shaping their wagers than isolating pointspread winners. Market analysts struggle to beat horse racing. Imagine going to the racetrack and not buying the racing form. Good luck. Same with sports wagering.

 

[kid44]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

I find it funny that guys will make over 8 wagers on a Saturday college foots or hoops. My brain cannot follow more than a couple teams at a time during the season to know what an efficient number is for 80 games. As a recreational capper I like action but hate pulling coin out of my pocket to pay the man. On any game of a team I follow i have several plays to consider. Bases, first 5 innings, total, side. If I know this team and their character, the managing style, health, pitching staff that is all I need to make an informed play. I do not hesitate to fade my team when it comes to plays. This works for me. I can get the feel of the opposition coming in to town several days before they arrive to enhance the feel.
Foots is easier because you have the week to prepare. The forums will provide all the stuff referred to in above posts and can usually tip me to a side if I am wavering. Keep it simple, do not over study, dont force a play.
A very good capper I know once told me 'study long, study wrong'.

 

[High Times]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

All you read nowadays on Forums is Idiots talking about EV this EV that, Spreadsheet tells me this, Books have got it wrong statistically, my model says 3 star bet.
ALL BOLLOCKS.
Dont let these wasters who are self delusional convince you that they have found the holy grail ( an easy way to find winners instead of long hours of hard work) In 30 years of Bookmaking the only Bettor that I or any other bookmaker feared was one who not only knew his figures (not a tough assignment) but had a vast depth of knowledge in the Sport they were betting. I've even read posts saying its best to know nothing of the Sport your betting, words are cheap on a sports Forum so beware.
Probably the biggest failure to these new age punters is that all their methods are shot down by a lack of latest info, which makes their calculations laughable. Bottom line is, the main priority to winning at any sport is more than just betting smart numbers, its putting in the donkey work to know why prices are changing and evaluating that info.

Dont fall for that nonsense that you can win at Sports betting by knowing fuck all but watching line movement or playing silly games with Maths. Just look at that joker Grainchew on SBR, waffling on in Maths till the cows come home yet probably couldnt name a linebacker in the NFL 12io4j2w90:cheers

I could not agree with you more!

These math and market guys are all blowhards.

I used to laugh at the guys who had all these figures and trends and magical numbers/odds that guaranteed that they would hit 54% but never was able to get there. These are games and nothing you have in writing or math or "The Market" has anything to do with you WINNING or LOSING.

They are like little children that think they found something no other person has found yet.

Watch the games, know the teams and players and the rules to the games and start picking winners.

The HUGE REASON these math/market guys are STUPID is that what they are doing is MAKING SURE THEY CAN ONLY WIN A LITTLE over time because all they want is a LITTLE edge and that does not GET IT DONE. They are limiting themselves and don't even know it.

Why would you waste all that time to hit JUST 53%? Or get a pennies to the dollar edge?

 

[vincenzococotti]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

hey all u idiots too dumb to do the math...how about this ...doing the math AND watching the games is the way to go...any asshole saying doing the math and working the numbers is bullsit is one of 3 things

-too lazy to do so
-math isnt and has never been their strong suit so they couldnt do it
-have no idea how to make a line and dont want to learn...


the best guys in this industry are guys who have people do the math, stay informed AND have a great feel...


you see if the math AND your feel agree its a big play....one without the other is inefficient....can it win...sure...but it aint efficient


the key to this business is information and building a consensus of info...be it math, feel, info, or line reading if u have all and they all point the same way and are each done by an expert in that analyses...pound it...if u only do it one way....dont be fucing ignorant about the people who can do it the other way......what u should do is team up with an expert in another discipline, do your work seperately and bet the ones u match on..

but the way this post is worded and most of the replies...u all seem dumb, lazy and or ignorant......like the assholes who thought the world was flat.....dont be ignorant....think of the multiple ways games are capped, find experts in all those ways (some are experts at numbers and feel and line reading) and cap on your own compare the info and bet what you all agree on.....that will both narrow down your plays per day and give u a consensus.......

also if u are a league expert, then find another league expert....and another and make sure they do the work and know the teams and read the local papers and have kids on campus with their ear to the ground....guys its an information business dont knock the guys that do more work than you do or something u dont know.....i know totals guys that kill the number, i know info guys that bet based on stuff they hear, and others that would rather be late and see the best info to see if it matches with their own before they bet it.....most arent good enough to be first to the party, so knocking someone who has a systematic way of handicapping is just stupid...

and fyi i dont know any decimal bettor in which it doesnt take hours and hours of tweaking formulas and sheets to get to their conclusions, tweak numbers every day ***** hours checking the info , updating umpires and previous days stats while also considering factors we would base our "feel" on.... so acting like its just hit a button and watch the info spit out is also ignorant and shows you are criticizing a mething you literally know nothing about...

and last MOST GUYS WHO ONLY GO ON "FEEL" DONT HAVE MANY OTHER OPTIONS....AND ARE USUALLY JEALOUS

HERE IS A QUIZ
CAN U OR DO YOU........

GET INSIDE OR CITAL INFO INFO
BUILD A ***WORK OF EXPERT CAPPERS
KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT STATISTICS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, OR EXCELL TO EVEN START ON THIS PROJECT
HAVE THE 4-6 HOURS A DAY TO BOTH ADJUST YOUR INFO AND ALSO BET THE GAMES U NEED TO
HAVE A "REAL" BANKROLL


IF U DONT THEN NO SHIT U FIGHT FOR GUYS WHO BET ON FEEL...YOU HAVE NO FUCKIN CHOICE....ITS LIKE A GUY WHO CANT AFFORD A CAR OR DOESNT KNOW HOW TO GET A LEASE SAYING HOW GREAT A BICYCLE IS CAUSE U GET SO MUCH EXERCISE, CAN BE IN THE SUN, GET FRESH AIR ECT....WHEN THE STORY ISNT HOW GOOD A BIKE IS COMPARED TO CAR, ITS THAT YOU COULDNT AFFORD A CAR SO U NEED TO EXPLAIN WHY U ARE ONLY RIDING A STUPID BICYCLE .....IF IT MAKES U FEEL GOOD GREAT, BUT YOUR RATIONALIZATION ISNT FOOLING THE GUYS IN CARS THAT KNOW U ARE FULL OF SHIT

 

[High Times]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Some of the greatest linemakers ever did it in their heads!

It's not fricken rocket science and never will get that complicated no matter how you think it is because YOU guys are just not good enough and NEED THE MATH.

That's how it works, you got it backwards.

The market and the lines/odds are the easiest thing to figure out in sports betting. There is NOTHING there. The thing is knowing what the lines/odds should be and getting the best odds/lines when you make your bet.

Math guys (linesmakers/system bettors) just can't make the best lines/odds and NEVER will be able to beat the guys who do it on feel.

 

[vincenzococotti]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Some of the greatest linemakers ever did it in their heads!

It's not fricken rocket science and never will get that complicated no matter how you think it is because YOU guys are just not good enough and NEED THE MATH.

That's how it works, you got it backwards.

The market and the lines/odds are the easiest thing to figure out in sports betting. There is NOTHING there. The thing is knowing what the lines/odds should be and getting the best odds/lines when you make your bet.

Math guys (linesmakers/system bettors) just can't make the best lines/odds and NEVER will be able to beat the guys who do it on feel.

of course they did it that way..now they dont have to..its u who have it wrong...like I said u need both but if u are ignorant to what the edge computers and thir speed gives u ...u are too old school to get it and never will....so keep listening to your 8 tracks andwatching your betamax...u are behind the times and most of the best use numbers along with feel......they dont just use their heads cause they dont have to ...........10 years ago u had a decent case...now u just look like an ignorant dinosaur...good luch to you

 

[High Times]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

An ignorant dinosaur that can out handicap any computer.

I understand that a lot of people have no chance to make it that way and need math to do what their minds should be able to do.

No big deal

 

[High Times]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

A computer can't tell you what rain will do to a football game and it doesn't know how hard it is raining.

A computer can't tell you how much Kobe Bryant will play tonight because he broke his finger.

A computer can't tell you that is it 50 degrees tonight and the wind is blowing in at any baseball park.

Explain how the computer helps in these and many, many other situations that happen right before games.

And do you think for a minute the computer is telling BW and all the other big time bettors who to bet at game time when late info comes in?

You believe what you want to believe, but in no way is a computer better than the human eye!

Plus anything the computer spits out

Is only a reaction of what you put in it so in that regard the HUMAN still needs to know what is going on or his computer would have no idea what to spit out. It only can do whatever the human tells it too.

 

[Mammon]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

ev is garbage

 

[vincenzococotti]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

A computer can't tell you what rain will do to a football game and it doesn't know how hard it is raining.

A computer can't tell you how much Kobe Bryant will play tonight because he broke his finger.

A computer can't tell you that is it 50 degrees tonight and the wind is blowing in at any baseball park.

Explain how the computer helps in these and many, many other situations that happen right before games.

And do you think for a minute the computer is telling BW and all the other big time bettors who to bet at game time when late info comes in?

You believe what you want to believe, but in no way is a computer better than the human eye!

Plus anything the computer spits out

Is only a reaction of what you put in it so in that regard the HUMAN still needs to know what is going on or his computer would have no idea what to spit out. It only can do whatever the human tells it too.

u argue just to argue u ignorant ass....i have said u need both about 5 times above...the computers plus feel is best...feel with no basis on what the line should be before feel is not as good.....yes what comes out of a computer is only as good as what goes in, that was never in question but once it has the data then it is thousands of times faster than the human mind....then when its done u decide what feel factors should change that number....i think BW will buy out of a play partially based on late info...

u need to fell u know more than everyone...take a guy with feel that knows how to get the stats and data in a computer to come up with a line to be adjusted for that exact feel and you have something...if u dont have it, u dont have all u need, if u are good now, u could be better.....thats what ur missing...thinking u cant improve with technology is your ignorance.....good luck..i can bring u to water but i cant make u drink...

 

[High Times]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

u argue just to argue u ignorant ass....i have said u need both about 5 times above...the computers plus feel is best...feel with no basis on what the line should be before feel is not as good.....yes what comes out of a computer is only as good as what goes in, that was never in question but once it has the data then it is thousands of times faster than the human mind....then when its done u decide what feel factors should change that number....i think BW will buy out of a play partially based on late info...

u need to fell u know more than everyone...take a guy with feel that knows how to get the stats and data in a computer to come up with a line to be adjusted for that exact feel and you have something...if u dont have it, u dont have all u need, if u are good now, u could be better.....thats what ur missing...thinking u cant improve with technology is your ignorance.....good luck..i can bring u to water but i cant make u drink...

The only reason I am bringing this up is I can make better lines/odds than any computer and always have been able to do just that.

Now I know you don't believe me and that is your right. I don't really care because there is no way I can prove that to you or would want to prove that to you.

I do not need a computer to make a very, very strong line. That I can do in my head and A LOT better than any computer.

STOP WITH THE NOBODY CAN DO THAT CRAP BECAUSE I AM SURE I AM NOT THE ONLY ONE WHO MAKES GOOD LINES WITHOUT THE HELP OF A COMPUTER.

In fact I do believe in the human making lines better than a computer and I also know that the human mind has a HUGE edge over the computer because the computer just doesn't know everything about the event.

There are a lot of bettors who can win just using their OPINION.

You just don't believe anybody

I believe everything you are saying except for me I don't need a computer to know if a line/odds are off.

Always have known

 

[High Times]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

It's cool

Don't get mad at me because I don't need a computer except to get info

 

[High Times]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

And 1 more thing

You believe nobody can beat sports betting without a computer?

Do you really believe that?

 

[vincenzococotti]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

And 1 more thing

You believe nobody can beat sports betting without a computer?

Do you really believe that?

absolutely not....what i think is the guys that can do it without it can be even better with them....the stats combined with that feel is an unbeatable combination...that is what i am saying..

 

[vincenzococotti]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

It's cool

Don't get mad at me because I don't need a computer except to get info

mad? son i get more info than u ever will but i can give it a value and enter it in a model that can take 10 years of data into account..this is what im saying.....i can still have the same feel i did 20 years ago and that opinion and cross reference it with 10 years worth of data........if u cant give that info a value and see what it does to your line that u are working on an imperfect system....my computer knows what heppened the last time i adjusted for rain....my computer also has umpire ratings and how they have changed over time and why.....because yours or my "feel" cannot take into consideration the last 20 times u came across the same situation and what the outcome was, then my adjustment to todays info be it rain or a broken finger will adjust the line better just "feel" will....im sorry but computers and feel are like ham and eggs.....computers give you something to start from..and ANY variable can be given a value to change your model.....then feel can adjust from there...

 

[Doughy]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Post #6 above by vincenzococotti is 100% accurate.

 

[IrishTim]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

This thread makes me confident that spots betting will always be beatable.

HT, I know you have a lot of bookmaking experience, but things have changed with the advent of the inter*** and the immediate accessibility it offers to decades worth of stats, lines, and scores. I've explained to you with evidence and logical argument dozens of times now why sports betting acts as a market just like any other kind. It's always the same story: you respond for a little while and then once you've been defeated in reasoned debate you disappear - only to reappear a few days later declaring how "market guys don't know anything".

 

[IrishTim]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Post #6 above by vincenzococotti is 100% accurate.

I just read it and agree with pretty much every word. The three most important parts of becoming a winning sport gambler in my estimation (in order):

1) Modeling/making your own number
2) Timing the market/beating the CL
3) Watching the game and "feeling" out bad numbers

Betting solely by feel may have worked backed in the 80s when the square money outweighed sharp money, but there are very few who can do it today and I'm confident no one can win betting on "feel" recreationally. Today, the market is driven by people with precise models, updated injury information, and huge bankrolls acquired over years of gambling with good models and good information. So what would you rather bet on? The side you just think, for whatever unquantifiable reason, will win or the side that these aforementioned groups (i.e. the market) thinks has value?

High Times has posted so many stupid things in this thread, it's too hard to know where to start so I'll just leave it for someone else. If you do win with instinct and "feel", it has to be treated as a full time job like JK does it. No one can win simply by watching Sports Center for two hours a day and then a few games from 7-10 each night.

 

[The Judge]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Some of the greatest linemakers ever did it in their heads!.

Obviously as bookmakers have been doing business quite successfully long before computers came into the mix. In fact, I was amazed at my business partner, Larry Mac's ability to do just this during every halftime throughout this year's NBA playoffs. Uncanny, to say the least.

I do not need a computer to make a very, very strong line. That I can do in my head and A LOT better than any computer.

STOP WITH THE NOBODY CAN DO THAT CRAP BECAUSE I AM SURE I AM NOT THE ONLY ONE WHO MAKES GOOD LINES WITHOUT THE HELP OF A COMPUTER.

In fact I do believe in the human making lines better than a computer and I also know that the human mind has a HUGE edge over the computer because the computer just doesn't know everything about the event.

I have seen a lot of the myths that I had previously bought into, completely debunked since moving here in April.

However, the point needs to be made that there is a huge difference between an accurate line and a "good" line.

 

[IrishTim]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

I apologize for the string posting, but there isn't much traffic at EOG right now to break it up. To answer Win's question "what happened to the old way of beating the book?" Well, the old way doesn't work anymore thanks for the inter***.

Decimal-point sports handicappers have their place. I think the math guys are more adept at shaping their wagers than isolating pointspread winners. Market analysts struggle to beat horse racing. Imagine going to the racetrack and not buying the racing form. Good luck. Same with sports wagering.

Obviously I disagree with your sentiment here, but that's fine. My issue is with you comparing using the market to place your wagers at the race track vs. the sports book. Pretending like fixed odds sports betting vs. parimutuel odds horse racing are the same thing is terribly disingenuous. You said you believed horse-racing was an efficient market (http://forums.eog.com/online-sports...is-your-criteria-efficient-market-290330.html), which essentially means that you believe the implied odds a line has - once the vig is taken out - are reflective of a horse's true probability of winning. If this is indeed the case, then theoretically betting a horse at fixed odds of 10 to 1 that closes at 5 to 1 would offer a +EV opportunity, whether you purchased the Daily Racing Form or not, no?

 

[IrishTim]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

However, the point needs to be made that there is a huge difference between an accurate line and a "good" line.

Interesting quote, Judge. Do you mind elaborating on this point? The head of the LVSC (his name escapes me at the moment) said that they used to set their lines at a number they believed would draw the most 2-way action, but since the markets have gotten sharper with all of the data available online, they have had to shift their focus to setting the most accurate number possible. It's them against the wiseguys (his words, not mine), because as I said before - the sharp money, compiled by years of winning gambling, now dwarfs the square money.

 

[The Judge]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Tim, while I can appreciate LVCS's perspective, they certainly have a different agenda from the majority of bookmakers as their opinions are under a very large microscope while own their clientele has to book to their particular customer base. The LVCS openers on heavily wagered events are seldom in line with most closers as bookmakers are moving based on action, not someone else's opinion on where the players' money is initially going.

Almost apples and oranges.

 

[vincenzococotti]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

I just read it and agree with pretty much every word. The three most important parts of becoming a winning sport gambler in my estimation (in order):

1) Modeling/making your own number
2) Timing the market/beating the CL
3) Watching the game and "feeling" out bad numbers

Betting solely by feel may have worked backed in the 80s when the square money outweighed sharp money, but there are very few who can do it today and I'm confident no one can win betting on "feel" recreationally. Today, the market is driven by people with precise models, updated injury information, and huge bankrolls acquired over years of gambling with good models and good information. So what would you rather bet on? The side you just think, for whatever unquantifiable reason, will win or the side that these aforementioned groups (i.e. the market) thinks has value?

High Times has posted so many stupid things in this thread, it's too hard to know where to start so I'll just leave it for someone else. If you do win with instinct and "feel", it has to be treated as a full time job like JK does it. No one can win simply by watching Sports Center for two hours a day and then a few games from 7-10 each night.

appreciate the "consensus" even here to validate my thoughts...I am not arguing the HT is successful just that he is nowhere near as successful as he could be if he could take advantage of the info and speed in which it can be processed...that in conjunction with his superior "feel"could be and incredible tool....

him fighting against it is just his stubborness...and assuming we cant do what he does is silly...i know 20 guys that can do what HT does but have switched to the computer to aid in their process....a lot of these guys didnt knw how to turn one on 10 years ago.....do they have quant and really smart guys doing the data work..of course...but their feel is important to the process...they all say they could not have been as successful without computers aiding in their ability to make a line and can compare that to other lines....identifying an imperfect line is sub jective if u are only using feel...and watching games and retaining that information is an imperfect model, as I can load and recall all stats for the last 10 years , so i will never not remember a play, or get a team wrong....or as roger clemens says "misremember" a situation orscore i am using for my "feel" only....real stats get u to what the line should be and feel, momentum, win streaks, mentality ect can be entered in the equation as a variable in the formula to adjust the line...

if u bet baseball on feel only and dont have stats taking into direct cnsideration how each pitcher does in day or night at home and away if they are a fly ball or ground ball or contact pitcher and if batting teams hit well against lefties or righties, day or night home or away and what their avg score is in each situation and then what the ump will give to this situation and weather and whether the roof if in arizona is open or closed to then get a total and compare that to the market ...as you an see .im sorry but feel is just one part of the puzzle....all the calls and ino on top ofthis makes it efficient info....

say u find out pujols isnt playing...do u take the other side..or when u switch his replacement for puhuls do u see that puhols is 3 for 22 lifetime against this guy and his obscure replacement is 10 for 20.....hearing albert is out and basing it on feel can only get u so far....but only guys who can repace and have the stats can see that the cards may be a bigger play without him in that situation in about 15 seconds....no oone will have that in their head...just one extreme example but it works...

 

[MrTop]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Interesting quote, Judge. Do you mind elaborating on this point? The head of the LVSC (his name escapes me at the moment) said that they used to set their lines at a number they believed would draw the most 2-way action, but since the markets have gotten sharper with all of the data available online, they have had to shift their focus to setting the most accurate number possible. It's them against the wiseguys (his words, not mine), because as I said before - the sharp money, compiled by years of winning gambling, now dwarfs the square money.

Michael Roxy Roxborough started LVSC in the early 80's......... said back then in his book and interviews "the number is designed to beat the wiseguys......the public will lose on their own"..... LVSC is now headed by Kenny White.
What the inter*** did do is made the line tighter with the use of the inter*** services through the years....jim feist's line tracker...now gone....Don Best... Sportsoptions......Vegas Insider's Live odds.... etc.....

 

[rainbow]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Michael Roxy Roxborough started LVSC in the early 80's......... said back then in his book and interviews "the number is designed to beat the wiseguys......the public will lose on their own"..... LVSC is now headed by Kenny White.
What the inter*** did do is made the line tighter with the use of the inter*** services through the years....jim feist's line tracker...now gone....Don Best... Sportsoptions......Vegas Insider's Live odds.... etc.....

I used Roxy's over night numbers in the early 1990's and beat the walk-in sportsbooks in the Dominican Republic...

 

[rainbow]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Tim, while I can appreciate LVCS's perspective, they certainly have a different agenda from the majority of bookmakers as their opinions are under a very large microscope while own their clientele has to book to their particular customer base. The LVCS openers on heavily wagered events are seldom in line with most closers as bookmakers are moving based on action, not someone else's opinion on where the players' money is initially going.

Almost apples and oranges.

Years ago Chuck Sharp had a field day betting books with Stardusts opening Nba lines, I can't count on both of my hands how far the totals use to move, I can remember when I first start working offshore, I was working for Frankie Masterana and some mornings the totals were moving 10 and 12pts... back in those days the opening NBA lines were real soft.. but back to your reply, these openeing lines today are real easy to beat, the problem for alot of betters is they can't get down for enough money on the overnight lines...

 

[MrTop]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

I used Roxy's over night numbers in the early 1990's and beat the walk-in sportsbooks in the Dominican Republic...

those were the days Rainbow before the line sevices came out.......I remember I had a phone line service to get the lines ..it was about 300 per month back in the 80's... online services are so much better now......but it sharpened up the books all over the world.......it was easy back in those days to beat the local books in and play the middles...no more...the locals are in PPH offices and opened their own shops.......

 

[rainbow]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

I apologize for the string posting, but there isn't much traffic at EOG right now to break it up. To answer Win's question "what happened to the old way of beating the book?" Well, the old way doesn't work anymore thanks for the inter***.



Obviously I disagree with your sentiment here, but that's fine. My issue is with you comparing using the market to place your wagers at the race track vs. the sports book. Pretending like fixed odds sports betting vs. parimutuel odds horse racing are the same thing is terribly disingenuous. You said you believed horse-racing was an efficient market (http://forums.eog.com/online-sports...is-your-criteria-efficient-market-290330.html), which essentially means that you believe the implied odds a line has - once the vig is taken out - are reflective of a horse's true probability of winning. If this is indeed the case, then theoretically betting a horse at fixed odds of 10 to 1 that closes at 5 to 1 would offer a +EV opportunity, whether you purchased the Daily Racing Form or not, no?

In Louisiana at Evangeline Downs, you can throw the Racing Form in trash can, if you don't get info at that track you have no chance winning......... I use to be hard headed and ignore the info and bet all my horses strictly out of the form, it didn't take me long to realize that I was dealing with a very CROOKED track........

 

[rainbow]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

those were the days Rainbow before the line sevices came out.......I remember I had a phone line service to get the lines ..it was about 300 per month back in the 80's... online services are so much better now......but it sharpened up the books all over the world.......it was easy back in those days to beat the local books in and play the middles...no more...the locals are in PPH offices and opened their own shops.......

You are so right about this... do you know Shep or Lil Johnny?

 

[rainbow]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Obviously as bookmakers have been doing business quite successfully long before computers came into the mix. In fact, I was amazed at my business partner, Larry Mac's ability to do just this during every halftime throughout this year's NBA playoffs. Uncanny, to say the least.

2nd Halfs are not that hard to put up, in the College basketball season that for me is the most stressful, sometimes 20 come up almost at the sametime, and I put them up fast... I never have coppied off of anyone, I have to put the moneyline up too...

 

[Poster X]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

CROOKED is in all caps. that is today's scooby clue, boys and girls. ignore the face i am a broke dick linesmaker in costa rica at age 57.

hang on, ok, took a xanax. im ok.

 

[MrTop]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Don Best took over the phone line service in the 90's and their accounts.......I am from NYC... know very few people in Vegas.... use to work in a NYC shop in the 90's ....... it is has been on the Don Best screen for years......... My biggest mistake was not meeting Bob Martin in the 90's when he use to live in NYC.........

 

[rainbow]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

those were the days Rainbow before the line sevices came out.......I remember I had a phone line service to get the lines ..it was about 300 per month back in the 80's... online services are so much better now......but it sharpened up the books all over the world.......it was easy back in those days to beat the local books in and play the middles...no more...the locals are in PPH offices and opened their own shops.......

I can remember in the early 1980's when I was working for a guy in Louisiana, and everyday I was calling JK Sports for the lines and they had a different rotation schedule, I almost always had to call twice because of the order it was in...........

 

[rainbow]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Don Best took over the phone line service in the 90's and their accounts.......I am from NYC... know very few people in Vegas.... use to work in a NYC shop in the 90's ....... it is has been on the Don Best screen for years......... My biggest mistake was not meeting Bob Martin in the 90's when he use to live in NYC.........

You had to know TAJ, this guy had ALOT of money at o***ime, they brutilized him booking..........

 

[MrTop]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

I can remember in the early 1980's when I was working for a guy in Louisiana, and everyday I was calling JK Sports for the lines and they had a different rotation schedule, I almost always had to call twice because of the order it was in...........

Funny........I had a solid book from Lousianna years ago..........my agent was real solid..... did some work for danny K ....kosher boy in NYC

 

[rainbow]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Don Best took over the phone line service in the 90's and their accounts.......I am from NYC... know very few people in Vegas.... use to work in a NYC shop in the 90's ....... it is has been on the Don Best screen for years......... My biggest mistake was not meeting Bob Martin in the 90's when he use to live in NYC.........

I remember when Donbest first opened, I was in Dominican Republic at the time, I talked to the owner on the phone every morning, he passed sometime ago, his name was AL...after he passed his sons took it over and than eventually sold it........

 

[rainbow]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

Funny........I had a solid book from Lousianna years ago..........my agent was real solid..... did some work for danny K ....kosher boy in NYC

No, but the KOSHERS were the nuts in baseball in those days.... they won alot of money....... I worked for the biggest bookie in Louisiana at that time.......

 

[MrTop]

Re: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD WAY OF BEATING THE BOOK

I remember when Donbest first opened, I was in Dominican Republic at the time, I talked to the owner on the phone every morning, he passed sometime ago, his name was AL...after he passed his sons took it over and than eventually sold it........

Corbo.......was his name........... you had to be in the office working when I moved for Kosher..........small world rainbow