Santa Anita - 2011

D

Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Happy New Year everyone!

Santa Anita - Race 8

#1A Ten Devils (8/5 ml) ***part on an entry, no play on the other half if Ten Devils scratches***

I've been waiting on this horse to run back for a while now. You might remember we played Shelter Cove in that Nov 18 race, and i thought he was a bit of a standout there, but this first-time starter for Mandella was getting a ridiculous amount of support on the toteboard (bet down to 5/2 at post time from a morning line of around 10/1, if memory serves). It seemed likely that someone must have known something about this horse, especially after he exploded from out of nowhere in the late going to score a convincing win. This will be his first start around two turns, and it comes on the class jump, but Mandella is simply outstanding going sprint-to-route (24% with a big flat-bet profit), and this horse is obviously bred to run long as a son of Rock Hard Ten. Plus, it looked like he was just getting started in the late stages of his debut run, so that's a positive indicator as well. Obviously, i'm not real happy with the morning line here, but i wonder if it might be his entrymate Robie The Cat (coming off a 6-length win and accompanying field-best Beyer) who might be the cause of that. Incidentally, there's not a lot of pace in here, and there's a decent chance that Robie the Cat could get loose early. So a nice little backup plan there. In any case, despite the short morning line, i don't think we'll go favored here, as #3 Moment of Weakness (5/2 ml) is coming off a strong second behind the next-out Hollywood Futurity winner Comma to the Top in a graded turf stakes at this same distance. So if there's an "obvious" horse in this race, it would seem to be him. Good chance the morning line odds will be flip-flopped here, with us getting the better price on a horse who looks to be a very exciting young stakes prospect for Mandella.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

Post time is 4:07 Pacific time. I'll be watching and wagering. Good luck to us and thanks for contributing, Cat.
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

I'll be on two horses there #6 Silver Medallion and #4 Celestic night currently 9/2 and 25-1....21 minutes
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

<TABLE class=raceHeader><TBODY><TR><TD style="WIDTH: 81px"> </TD><TD class=postOffTime>(Off: 4:10) </TD><TD class=surfaceDescription>Surface: Turf </TD><TD class=getPPs>GET PPS: This Racecard | Next Card: 01/01 </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=4><HR style="HEIGHT: 1px" class=divider></TD></TR><TR><TD class=distanceDescription colSpan=4>Eddie Logan S. </TD></TR><TR><TD class=distanceDescription colSpan=4>1 Mile | Open | 2 Year Olds </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- Runner info --><TABLE class=runner cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><!-- Header --><THEAD><TR class=header><!-- Column Widths: currently totaling 648, which is equal to the main table width --><TH style="WIDTH: 20px" id=headerProgramNumber># </TH><TH style="WIDTH: 192px">HORSE </TH><TH style="WIDTH: 192px" class=coloredBackground>JOCKEY </TH><TH style="WIDTH: 72px">WIN </TH><TH style="WIDTH: 72px" class=coloredBackground>PLACE </TH><TH style="WIDTH: 72px">SHOW </TH></TR></THEAD><!-- Loop over each runner --><TBODY><TR class=runner><!-- Choose the saddle cloth text color --><TD style="BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(images/entriesResults/6.jpg); COLOR: #ffffff" id=programNumber>6 </TD><TD class=horseName>Silver Medallion </TD><TD class=coloredBackground>G. Gomez <TD>$12.60 </TD><TD class=coloredBackground>$4.80 </TD><TD>$3.20 </TD></TR><TR class=runner><!-- Choose the saddle cloth text color --><TD style="BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(images/entriesResults/1.jpg); COLOR: #ffffff" id=programNumber>1A </TD><TD class=horseName>Ten Devils </TD><TD class=coloredBackground>J. Talamo <TD> </TD><TD class=coloredBackground>$2.60 </TD><TD>$2.10 </TD></TR><TR class=runner><!-- Choose the saddle cloth text color --><TD style="BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(images/entriesResults/3.jpg); COLOR: #ffffff" id=programNumber>3 </TD><TD class=horseName>Moment of Weakness (IRE) </TD><TD class=coloredBackground>J. Rosario <TD> </TD><TD class=coloredBackground> </TD><TD>$2.40 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- Fractions -->Times in 5ths: :23<SUP>1</SUP> :46<SUP>3</SUP> 1:10<SUP>3</SUP> 1:23 1:35<SUP>3</SUP>
Times in 100ths: :23.20 :46.76 1:10.67 1:23.03 1:35.67
<!-- Winning Info --><!-- Using runner[0] because they are order in the stored procedure by official position -->Winning Trainer: Asmussen Steven | Owner: Ryan Michael

<!-- Scratch Info --><!-- Loop over each scratch --><!-- Claim info --><!-- Loop over each claim --><!-- Also ran info --><!-- Loop over each also ran --><!-- Display --><TABLE id=alsoran class=others><TBODY><TR><TD>Unplaced horses listed in order of finish. </TD></TR><TR><TD>Also ran: Major Art (GB), Oakcrest Drive, Dominator (GB), Robie the Cat and Celestic Night </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- Payoff info --><!-- Loop over each payoff --><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- Display --><TABLE id=payoff class=others><TBODY><TR><TD>$1 Exacta (6-1) Paid: $15.40, $1 Trifecta (6-1-3) Paid: $36.00, $1 Superfecta (6-1-3-7) Paid: $184.00, $2 Daily Double (3-6) Paid: $91.80 Daily Double Pool $32,725.00 , $1 Pick 3 (6-3-6) 3 Correct Paid: $198.20 Pick 3 Pool $64,411.00 , $1 Consolation Pick 3 (6-4-6) Paid: $36.70 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- Spacing --><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
brians

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

Nice call on the #6 at 10:1.

Cat - love the analysis ... as valuable as the pick itself. Thank you.
 
Flamingo kid

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

Exacta takeout rates rise from 20.68 to 22.68 and trifecta takeouts rise from 20.68 to 23.68 on Jan 1st at the great race place.

I guess pick 3's pick 4s and pick 6s also rise to the new tri takeout of 23.68.

playersboycott.org
 
D

Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

Santa Anita - Race 8

#3 Sirocco Strike (10/1 ml)

Not sure where this price is coming from. This horse has run extremely well in all four of his turf sprints, most recently a very good 4th in the extremely tough (and fast) Caracortado race, from which 3rd-place finisher Amazombie returned to win his next start, then subsequently missed by a nose in a main-track race earlier this week. Also, 5th-place finisher Stoneside (right behind Sirocco Strike) returned to miss by a head yesterday over this same downhill course. And as you know, Caracortado returned to finish a very sharp third in the Grade 1 Malibu on opening day. Back to Sirocco Strike, he then emerged from the Caracortado race to run a close second behind the afore-mentioned Amazombie, who incidentally looked great in that one while overpowering the solid frontrunner El Scorpio. As for today's race, Sirocco Strike figures to get a good trip here by sitting off the Dance With Gable (who may be dealing with Regally Ready if that one gets sent), and there's absolutely no reason he shouldn't be a major factor here despite the tough field. Excellent value on a major contender here.
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

Another good analysis by Cat, the only thing you left out is the 3rd race off a layoff, I always take a closer look at those horses. Not sure where the ML is coming from either.

My contenders here are 6-7-5-3 and as always i will key in on the one the public likes least :)

Good Luck
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

made e's and tri's w 3 and 7 on top only with each other and the other contenders

3,7 // 3,7,5,6
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

BAM


<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD><TABLE border=1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%"><TBODY><TR align=middle><TD class=resultHeader colSpan=4>Santa Anita Park - Race 8
</TD></TR></TD></TR></TD></TR></TD></TR></TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD class=resultHeader align=middle>#</TD><TD class=resultHeader align=middle>Win</TD><TD class=resultHeader align=middle>Place</TD><TD class=resultHeader align=middle>Show</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=result>7</TD><TD class=result>$19.60</TD><TD class=result>$7.00</TD><TD class=result>$4.60</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=result>6</TD><TD class=result>.</TD><TD class=result>$4.40</TD><TD class=result>$3.40</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=result>5</TD><TD class=result>.</TD><TD class=result>.</TD><TD class=result>$3.20</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD><TABLE border=1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=resultHeader colSpan=3>http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/totedb/results_tracks.cgi?track=SAX&race=all&type=0</TD><TR><TD class=resultHeader align=middle>Wager-Type</TD><TD class=resultHeader align=middle>Winning Numbers</TD><TD class=resultHeader align=middle>Paid</TD></TR><TR><TD class=result>$2 Exacta</TD><TD class=result>7-6 </TD><TD class=result>$73.20</TD></TR><TR><TD class=result>$2 Trifecta</TD><TD class=result>7-6-5 </TD><TD class=result>$328.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Viejo Dinosaur

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

Ray Luca said:
Another good analysis by Cat, the only thing you left out is the 3rd race off a layoff, I always take a closer look at those horses. Not sure where the ML is coming from either.

My contenders here are 6-7-5-3 and as always i will key in on the one the public likes least :)

Good Luck
Click to expand...

Kind of like Trotter in "Let It Ride"

Nice ticket Ray....
 
D

Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

Santa Anita - Race 1

#3 Scantily Clad (8/1 ml)

Interesting situation here. This European import turned back into a downhill race last time after running okay in a two-turn stakes, and broke well from the rail (the comment line in the Racing Form is incorrect), but that's when things got messed up. The rail is a hard enough place to break from on the downhill course, but this filly ended up having to taken back due to a riderless horse that had come over to get in her way, then she caught inside tracking the leader while the loose horse basically ran interference for the entire way. Finally she was able to make her move up the inside as the loose horse drifted out late (and interfered with another horse rallying outside, btw), but she was still in pretty tight and just never got to show her best stuff. Still wasn't beaten by a while lot, draws a better post here and clearly figures to move forward here with a clean trip, perhaps way forward. Excellent value.
 
M

mazeltrick

EOG Addicted
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

fwiw, i am with you DC- this one has a big shot in here. only the two sadlers to beat. good luck.
 
D

Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

No idea why they chose to take her so far back today. I really expected her to be forwardly-placed. Pretty strange. Went off @ 9/1 btw, so at least there was no problem with the price.

PS - Sorry about the typos.
 
D

Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

I think i have a good one for tomorrow; i've been waiting for this filly to run back for several weeks now. I was planning to post in the morning like i usually do, but unfortunately Brad Free had to tell the entire world in his DRF analysis, so i might as well do it now. Here's what i wrote about her in my "Horses to Watch" thread on HRT about a month ago.

Pink Blanket (2/4 @ SA, Race 4)

Hugely impressive performance by this first-time starter yesterday. He completely blew the start (looked like he hit the side of the gate coming out) to be off several lengths last, but then rushed up almost immediately to pass the entire herd and challenge the loose frontrunner who had gotten clear. Put that one away into the stretch and started to open up, while i basically just sat there in amazement, thinking holy-shit, he's gonna win this race anyway! It wasn't to be though, as a Kory Owens firster came and got him late, but he was well-clear for second and obviously would've won with ease if not for the starting gate mishap. Today's race was 5 1/2 furlongs, i'd like to see him stay short next time, but this horse can run. Figures tough to stop when run back, quite possibly on a class-jump (this one was a MCL75).

I guess i must've overlooked the fact that he's actually a she, but anyway, she's entered in tomorrow's first race @ 3/1 ml. Not the morning line favorite either, which is nice. Also, something i didn't know at the time, she was actually claimed out of her debut, which is always an extemely positive sign. Especially when the trainer claims the horse for HIMSELF, as is the case here. Impossible not to like this one.
 
D

Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

I haven't forgotten about Brethen. Believe me.

Uncle Mo i don't really care about at this point. Btw, i read a very interesting comment yesterday that i meant to post in the Uncle Mo thread. Assuming he gets to the Derby, Uncle Mo could face twice as many opponents that day as he did in his two prep races COMBINED. That's pretty sick.
 
Flamingo kid

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

Discreet Cat said:
I think i have a good one for tomorrow; i've been waiting for this filly to run back for several weeks now. I was planning to post in the morning like i usually do, but unfortunately Brad Free had to tell the entire world in his DRF analysis, so i might as well do it now. Here's what i wrote about her in my "Horses to Watch" thread on HRT about a month ago.

Pink Blanket (2/4 @ SA, Race 4)

Hugely impressive performance by this first-time starter yesterday. He completely blew the start (looked like he hit the side of the gate coming out) to be off several lengths last, but then rushed up almost immediately to pass the entire herd and challenge the loose frontrunner who had gotten clear. Put that one away into the stretch and started to open up, while i basically just sat there in amazement, thinking holy-shit, he's gonna win this race anyway! It wasn't to be though, as a Kory Owens firster came and got him late, but he was well-clear for second and obviously would've won with ease if not for the starting gate mishap. Today's race was 5 1/2 furlongs, i'd like to see him stay short next time, but this horse can run. Figures tough to stop when run back, quite possibly on a class-jump (this one was a MCL75).

I guess i must've overlooked the fact that he's actually a she, but anyway, she's entered in tomorrow's first race @ 3/1 ml. Not the morning line favorite either, which is nice. Also, something i didn't know at the time, she was actually claimed out of her debut, which is always an extemely positive sign. Especially when the trainer claims the horse for HIMSELF, as is the case here. Impossible not to like this one.
Click to expand...

You don't want to land on Brad Free's picks because that means you're landing on the master of the obvious horse who had a trip from hell that everyone saw. You want to find the horse who had the 'sneaky' bad trip that the DRF tripline missed or, its just a trip that was bias and or pace compromised.
 
D

Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

It's not my fault that Brad Free is touting the horse also. I still like her very much. If she goes off @ 2/1 (which is a very real possibility here), i'll be pleased as punch. The morning-line favorite is a Bob Baffert horse who also ran a close second last time out. Wouldn't shock me if that one went favored. The Sadler horse could take a bit of money also.
 
D

Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

JAKEPEAVY21 said:
I see pink blanket in race 1, not 4..
Click to expand...

She ran in Race 4 on 2/4. Like I said.

Disappointing effort here, obviously. They had some trouble with her at the gate, and then she blew the break again. Came running and looked poised to maybe win it coming around the turn, but flattened out badly thereafter. Might have injured herself or something. Who knows.
 
D

Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

I probably shouldn't post this one, I'm beginning to think I'm jinxed on here. But here ya go.

Santa Anita - Race 8

#7 Bench Points (8/1 ml)

Speaking of overlays. As talented as this field is, you can argue that none of them have looked any better than Bench Points has, as this undefeated gelding has simply been a terror in the lane throughout his short career. His first three all came in state-bred 2yo events, which i guess is why we're getting a big price here (that, and his low-profile connections), but he came off the long layoff last month and simply torched Da Ruler late, a horse that you may notice happened to beat the much-hyped Albergatti (also entered here) in their common debut race. There's also a ton of early speed in here, which sets it up beautifully for this guy's powerful late run. Unfortunately, this will be Bench Points' first start around two turns, so we really don't know if he'll show the same kind of late kick here that he does in the shorter races, but he's bred to route top-and-bottom, and the way he's able to relax early in his races seems to indicate that he'll stretch out well (you might compare him to Dialed In, in fact). Big value any way you look at it.
 
JAKEPEAVY21

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

Discreet Cat said:
She ran in Race 4 on 2/4. Like I said.

Disappointing effort here, obviously. They had some trouble with her at the gate, and then she blew the break again. Came running and looked poised to maybe win it coming around the turn, but flattened out badly thereafter. Might have injured herself or something. Who knows.
Click to expand...

my bad..gl in race 8 with Bench Points
 
KingRevolver

KingRevolver

Born Rambler
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

Discreet Cat said:
I probably shouldn't post this one, I'm beginning to think I'm jinxed on here. But here ya go.

Santa Anita - Race 8

#7 Bench Points (8/1 ml)

Speaking of overlays. As talented as this field is, you can argue that none of them have looked any better than Bench Points has, as this undefeated gelding has simply been a terror in the lane throughout his short career. His first three all came in state-bred 2yo events, which i guess is why we're getting a big price here (that, and his low-profile connections), but he came off the long layoff last month and simply torched Da Ruler late, a horse that you may notice happened to beat the much-hyped Albergatti (also entered here) in their common debut race. There's also a ton of early speed in here, which sets it up beautifully for this guy's powerful late run. Unfortunately, this will be Bench Points' first start around two turns, so we really don't know if he'll show the same kind of late kick here that he does in the shorter races, but he's bred to route top-and-bottom, and the way he's able to relax early in his races seems to indicate that he'll stretch out well (you might compare him to Dialed In, in fact). Big value any way you look at it.
Click to expand...

I'm on it, boss.
 
Flamingo kid

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

Discreet Cat said:
It's not my fault that Brad Free is touting the horse also. I still like her very much. If she goes off @ 2/1 (which is a very real possibility here), i'll be pleased as punch. The morning-line favorite is a Bob Baffert horse who also ran a close second last time out. Wouldn't shock me if that one went favored. The Sadler horse could take a bit of money also.
Click to expand...

That's not what i meant. I meant that if you're on the same horse as Brad Free, you're picking a horse who the entire world saw had massive trouble. Free can only identify the most obvious ones, so, if he identifies the same horse you do, its maybe 'too obvious' of a pick and figures to go to post at deflated odds.
 
C

Ching or Dong

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

Discreet Cat said:
I think i have a good one for tomorrow; i've been waiting for this filly to run back for several weeks now. I was planning to post in the morning like i usually do, but unfortunately Brad Free had to tell the entire world in his DRF analysis, so i might as well do it now. Here's what i wrote about her in my "Horses to Watch" thread on HRT about a month ago.

Pink Blanket (2/4 @ SA, Race 4)

Hugely impressive performance by this first-time starter yesterday. He completely blew the start (looked like he hit the side of the gate coming out) to be off several lengths last, but then rushed up almost immediately to pass the entire herd and challenge the loose frontrunner who had gotten clear. Put that one away into the stretch and started to open up, while i basically just sat there in amazement, thinking holy-shit, he's gonna win this race anyway! It wasn't to be though, as a Kory Owens firster came and got him late, but he was well-clear for second and obviously would've won with ease if not for the starting gate mishap. Today's race was 5 1/2 furlongs, i'd like to see him stay short next time, but this horse can run. Figures tough to stop when run back, quite possibly on a class-jump (this one was a MCL75).

I guess i must've overlooked the fact that he's actually a she, but anyway, she's entered in tomorrow's first race @ 3/1 ml. Not the morning line favorite either, which is nice. Also, something i didn't know at the time, she was actually claimed out of her debut, which is always an extemely positive sign. Especially when the trainer claims the horse for HIMSELF, as is the case here. Impossible not to like this one.
Click to expand...
That is a big junp from MDN CLM to Staright MD plus being way overbet at 6-5, Granted had trouble, again but don't think it would have made a winner. A drop back to MDN CLM in order.
 
C

Ching or Dong

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Santa Anita - 2011

Only the winner has a right to look ahead to KY from the San Felipe. The Tampa Bay Derby is also a throw out as a 16k claimer ran 2nd in a photo. Brethern no chnce. I guess The Factor is the best in the West and that is weak.....Let's look to the midwest and Oaklawn and NY and Fla for a Derby horse Cat..
 
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