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<!--StartFragment --> FOOTBALL BETTING MYTHS
COURTESY OF OLYMPIC SPORTS BOOK: By David Scott
In America, football represents better than 40 percent of the total sports wagering action. Bookmakers who have an international clientele handle a smaller percentage on the gridiron games but whether you're in Manchester, New Hampshire or Manchester, England, the sport still rates highly with bettors.
Interestingly, for a sport that boasts such a worldwide wagering audience, there are many misconceptions and misunderstandings about betting and booking the sport.
Let's see if we can separate myth from reality:
Myth #1: Bettors have the edge during preseason and early in the regular season because oddsmakers and bookmakers need more time to assess the teams.
Reality: Not true. More hours are spent analyzing the opening week of the NFL season than is any other. A detailed, in-depth assessment of NFL teams begins more than a month before the opening kickoff. While it's true that teams often do not tip their hand during the preseason, players are in no better position to uncover this deception than are bookmakers. If anything, the early part of the season is a very fair fight.
Myth #2: The line is created to beat the public.
Reality: That's laughable. With the exception of the Super Bowl, the public plays almost no role in the linemaking process. The line is created and adjusted to meet the opinion of professional players because it is they who bet serio
us money on the game.
Myth #3: Lines get balanced action.
Reality: Yeah, maybe in bookmakers' dreams. While the idea is to construct a line that is of equal attraction to both favorite and underdog players, it rarely works out that way in the real world. Much more typically, four or five games on the NFL schedule will have an insignificant amount of wagering to cause much of a stir, four or five other games will have balanced betting, and the remaining four or five games will have heavy one-way action. Traditionally, it is how books fare on these lopsided games, called "decisions, "that determines who wins or loses. Of course, with an 11-10 advantage in vigorish, winning half these key decisions usually translates to a successful week for bet takers.
Myth #4: Bookmakers have inside info that they use to establish "trap" games.
Reality: Not so. Nowadays, with everyone having access to information over the Internet, it's not so much the information itself but how well that information is interpreted. Bookmakers still may occasionally receive information regarding injuries or weather changes before players, but thanks to the abundance and quality of technology, that advantage often can be measured in seconds. Sometimes, players find out first. Many years ago, if a bookmaker found out some significant nugget of data, he might try to lure the bettor to the "wrong" side. Those days are gone as inside information has all but ceased to exist and there is no such thing as a "trap" game.
Myth #5: Pro gamblers pick their spots, betting just a couple of games a weekend.
Reality: Actually, sophisticated gamblers bet a lot of games. Think of it this way: If you were the Los Angeles Lakers, would you rather the NBA Finals be just one game or the best of seven? If you're a successful gambler, why risk serious money on just a few games where a freak play or an official's call can make you a loser? The wider the net is tossed, the less a factor luck is in the outcome. Wiseguys make many plays over the course of a football weekend.
Myth #6: Wiseguys bet more on games they really like.
Reality: More than any misconception, this myth probably best illustrates the difference between how professionals and amateurs think. A professional gambler believes that if a game is worth betting, it's worth betting significantly. Professional bettors generally wager approximately the same amount on every game they play. The concept of a "best bet" is a media creation that is foreign to professional sports bettors. After all, if you really knew what your best bets were, wouldn't you just bet those? Professional gamblers believe all their bets are good ones; that's why they make them.
Myth #7: Bettors can win by focusing on a specific conference, division or region.
Reality: Not likely. It's not enough to have one specific area of expertise because the NFL schedule demands that teams play many of their games outside their own conference and division. Knowing the strength of a team is worthless is you don't also know the strength of the opponent. There's also an enormous difference between sports and sports gambling. Many people who know sports quite well are unable to effectively transfer that knowledge to pointspreads or wagering.
Myth #8: Statistical wagering trends are important.
Reality: Yeah, to whom? While technical analysis may be popular, it's hardly meaningful. Professional bettors put little faith in the favorite/underdog, home/away pointspread analysis that is so often cited by gridiron "handicappers." It's just another method of backfitting that is dismissed as irrelevant by wiseguys.
Myth #9: It's never wise to bet on rumors
Reality: Oh, yes it is. For example, if a professional bettor hears a rumor that Brett Favre has the flu and is too ill to play quarterback for the Packers, he'll quickly bet on Green Bay's opponent. If the rumor is correct, the gambler has stolen the line on a game that's certain to change. If the rumor is false, then he's played Green Bay's opponent at a fair price. Since most lines are accurate, the bettor takes little risk in chasing a rumor.
COURTESY OF OLYMPIC SPORTS BOOK: By David Scott
In America, football represents better than 40 percent of the total sports wagering action. Bookmakers who have an international clientele handle a smaller percentage on the gridiron games but whether you're in Manchester, New Hampshire or Manchester, England, the sport still rates highly with bettors.
Interestingly, for a sport that boasts such a worldwide wagering audience, there are many misconceptions and misunderstandings about betting and booking the sport.
Let's see if we can separate myth from reality:
Myth #1: Bettors have the edge during preseason and early in the regular season because oddsmakers and bookmakers need more time to assess the teams.
Reality: Not true. More hours are spent analyzing the opening week of the NFL season than is any other. A detailed, in-depth assessment of NFL teams begins more than a month before the opening kickoff. While it's true that teams often do not tip their hand during the preseason, players are in no better position to uncover this deception than are bookmakers. If anything, the early part of the season is a very fair fight.
Myth #2: The line is created to beat the public.
Reality: That's laughable. With the exception of the Super Bowl, the public plays almost no role in the linemaking process. The line is created and adjusted to meet the opinion of professional players because it is they who bet serio
us money on the game.
Myth #3: Lines get balanced action.
Reality: Yeah, maybe in bookmakers' dreams. While the idea is to construct a line that is of equal attraction to both favorite and underdog players, it rarely works out that way in the real world. Much more typically, four or five games on the NFL schedule will have an insignificant amount of wagering to cause much of a stir, four or five other games will have balanced betting, and the remaining four or five games will have heavy one-way action. Traditionally, it is how books fare on these lopsided games, called "decisions, "that determines who wins or loses. Of course, with an 11-10 advantage in vigorish, winning half these key decisions usually translates to a successful week for bet takers.
Myth #4: Bookmakers have inside info that they use to establish "trap" games.
Reality: Not so. Nowadays, with everyone having access to information over the Internet, it's not so much the information itself but how well that information is interpreted. Bookmakers still may occasionally receive information regarding injuries or weather changes before players, but thanks to the abundance and quality of technology, that advantage often can be measured in seconds. Sometimes, players find out first. Many years ago, if a bookmaker found out some significant nugget of data, he might try to lure the bettor to the "wrong" side. Those days are gone as inside information has all but ceased to exist and there is no such thing as a "trap" game.
Myth #5: Pro gamblers pick their spots, betting just a couple of games a weekend.
Reality: Actually, sophisticated gamblers bet a lot of games. Think of it this way: If you were the Los Angeles Lakers, would you rather the NBA Finals be just one game or the best of seven? If you're a successful gambler, why risk serious money on just a few games where a freak play or an official's call can make you a loser? The wider the net is tossed, the less a factor luck is in the outcome. Wiseguys make many plays over the course of a football weekend.
Myth #6: Wiseguys bet more on games they really like.
Reality: More than any misconception, this myth probably best illustrates the difference between how professionals and amateurs think. A professional gambler believes that if a game is worth betting, it's worth betting significantly. Professional bettors generally wager approximately the same amount on every game they play. The concept of a "best bet" is a media creation that is foreign to professional sports bettors. After all, if you really knew what your best bets were, wouldn't you just bet those? Professional gamblers believe all their bets are good ones; that's why they make them.
Myth #7: Bettors can win by focusing on a specific conference, division or region.
Reality: Not likely. It's not enough to have one specific area of expertise because the NFL schedule demands that teams play many of their games outside their own conference and division. Knowing the strength of a team is worthless is you don't also know the strength of the opponent. There's also an enormous difference between sports and sports gambling. Many people who know sports quite well are unable to effectively transfer that knowledge to pointspreads or wagering.
Myth #8: Statistical wagering trends are important.
Reality: Yeah, to whom? While technical analysis may be popular, it's hardly meaningful. Professional bettors put little faith in the favorite/underdog, home/away pointspread analysis that is so often cited by gridiron "handicappers." It's just another method of backfitting that is dismissed as irrelevant by wiseguys.
Myth #9: It's never wise to bet on rumors
Reality: Oh, yes it is. For example, if a professional bettor hears a rumor that Brett Favre has the flu and is too ill to play quarterback for the Packers, he'll quickly bet on Green Bay's opponent. If the rumor is correct, the gambler has stolen the line on a game that's certain to change. If the rumor is false, then he's played Green Bay's opponent at a fair price. Since most lines are accurate, the bettor takes little risk in chasing a rumor.