ajaysdreamplays
EOG Addicted
Hi, guys. Been following cassiusclay?s dog betting thread, and thought you might be interested in knowing a little about how games within a certain range can help you have similar success to that of CC the first part of June (prior to Interleague play).
June 1-14, dogs in the range of +110 to +150 went 51-35 (59.3%). Think about that for a sec. Faves in that odds range generally go about 55%. So what we had during that two week span was nothing short of a phenomenal aberration. But an aberration that you could?ve made money from, had you been keeping track.
I picked up on it early, but failed to follow it for its entirety, hence only went 11-7 on away dogs during that span. See, most odds range dogs or faves don?t have streaks nearly that long, tending to last only 4-7 days. So by about June 5, I was waiting for the home faves to take over . . . and waiting . . . and waiting.
In that I don?t track Interleague play, I can only tell you that the home faves didn?t show again in intra-league play until July . . . but since then they?ve been there with a vengence, going 51-24 (68%). So now you know why CC?s dog betting system hasn?t fared as well recently. But I guarantee you it?ll flare up brightly again, and soon ? I just can?t tell you exactly when.
Note that this far into July, home faves have remained strong for a good bit longer than a normal short-term odds range tends to do. The A/S break might account for some of that.
Away faves have also been ok in July, just not that many of them, going 11-6 (64.7%), in that odds range.
If you were to go back and look at CC?s plays during early June, I?m guessing (since I haven?t done so) that you?d find a higher winning percentage in the aforementioned odds range than outside it. Thing is, those really low-odds plays, say -103 to +109, tend to lean more toward 50-50, and the higher odds plays, >+150, just don?t normally win often enough. And that?s why I limit my tracking system to plays in the middle.
Right now, home faves >-129 are making money, but for how much longer? Thinking I may sit out the next few days just to observe what?s going on.
June 1-14, dogs in the range of +110 to +150 went 51-35 (59.3%). Think about that for a sec. Faves in that odds range generally go about 55%. So what we had during that two week span was nothing short of a phenomenal aberration. But an aberration that you could?ve made money from, had you been keeping track.
I picked up on it early, but failed to follow it for its entirety, hence only went 11-7 on away dogs during that span. See, most odds range dogs or faves don?t have streaks nearly that long, tending to last only 4-7 days. So by about June 5, I was waiting for the home faves to take over . . . and waiting . . . and waiting.
In that I don?t track Interleague play, I can only tell you that the home faves didn?t show again in intra-league play until July . . . but since then they?ve been there with a vengence, going 51-24 (68%). So now you know why CC?s dog betting system hasn?t fared as well recently. But I guarantee you it?ll flare up brightly again, and soon ? I just can?t tell you exactly when.
Note that this far into July, home faves have remained strong for a good bit longer than a normal short-term odds range tends to do. The A/S break might account for some of that.
Away faves have also been ok in July, just not that many of them, going 11-6 (64.7%), in that odds range.
If you were to go back and look at CC?s plays during early June, I?m guessing (since I haven?t done so) that you?d find a higher winning percentage in the aforementioned odds range than outside it. Thing is, those really low-odds plays, say -103 to +109, tend to lean more toward 50-50, and the higher odds plays, >+150, just don?t normally win often enough. And that?s why I limit my tracking system to plays in the middle.
Right now, home faves >-129 are making money, but for how much longer? Thinking I may sit out the next few days just to observe what?s going on.
