<TBODY><TR><TD style="FONT-FAMILY: arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt" id=yiv1443953161drftMsgContent _yuid="yui_3_1_1_3_131131272471885">"You learn something new every day."
My late mother, a deeply religious woman, seemingly delivered a different saying for every occasion and the above expression was among her favorites (along with biblical quotations like "You reap what you sow" and "This too shall pass").
Little did Mom know my daily lessons would be absorbed and digested in a Las Vegas sports book -- my house of worship -- where the congregation is more interested in profits than, ...er..., prophets.
Sports handicappers are information hogs, looking to learn something new every day. They are constantly processing the latest news, searching for relevant data either ignored by the betting marketplace or undervalued in the betting line.
Baseball is the ultimate information game in which 30 teams with 25 players a side compete over a 162-game schedule in a season that lasts over eight months, preseason and postseason included.
The critical element in studying past results to reveal future outcomes is the understanding of "predictive value." The term, used mostly by accountants and medical professionals, helps decision-makers forecast events with greater accuracy and more confidence.
Gamblers view every piece of information with several questions in mind: Is the information timely? Is this information relevant? Does the information make sense? Is a logical pattern evolving? Or do the results appear random without cause or explanation?
Listed below are four nuggets of Major League Baseball information I've uncovered over the past couple of days with my analysis of the data's predictive value:
ITEM: The three MLB teams sporting the best records -- the Phillies, Red Sox and Yankees -- are an incredible 74-23 in day games.
ANALYSIS: This is head-scratching material. These three teams have combined to win 61% of their games (177-112), but they've been victorious in 76% of their contests during daylight hours. Why? I'm not sure. I glance at day/night splits for teams and pitchers, but rarely find a plausible connection between past performances and future results. Is it possible the richest teams, loaded with veteran players, are more prepared and professional to compete on Saturday and Sunday afternoons following a Friday night game or a Saturday night on the town? I don't think so.
ITEM: The San Francisco Giants hired Jim Riggelman as a special assignment scout with an emphasis on National League East teams.
ANALYSIS: My initial thought was a good one. I immediately looked at San Francisco's remaining schedule to check if the defending World Series champs would meet the Washington Nationals. No luck. I thought Riggelman, fueled by revenge and resentment, would provide a detailed report to the Giants on the strengths and weaknesses of his old club. Instead, the Giants are scheduled to meet the Phillies seven times, the Braves four times and the Marlins thrice. Riggelman's old team was 11-17 against the NL East, so I'll monitor the Giants' results against NL East teams before forming an opinion on Riggelman's scouting abilities.
ITEM: The Philadelphia Phillies are 42-5 when scoring four or more runs.
ANALYSIS: It makes sense considering Philly's unbelievable pitching staff with the trio of aces -- Halladay, Lee and Hamels -- and the emerging young prospect Vance Worley. But the next item of discovery is the potential money-maker over the final two months of the baseball season.
ITEM: The Phillies this season are a perfect 5-0 in games following a high-scoring loss (I defined "high-scoring" as games in which both sides score four or more runs).
ANALYSIS: I always look to play good teams off a loss in every sport, but the classy Phils look like the perfect candidate to rebound after losing a high-scoring affair. The stellar pitching staff limits the production of opposing hitters while the Phils' offense, though not as prolific as in years past, is stocked with proven veterans. Philly was 8-5 last season with this angle and a perfect 5-0 this season. Let's keep an eye on this potential money-making trend.
FRIDAY'S BEST BET.....Play 921 CHICAGO WHITE SOX +101 over the Cleveland Indians. It's time for the South Siders to play to their $127 million payroll. Juan Pierre and Gordon Beckham are performing well, but Chicago's run-producers, especially Adam Dunn and Alex Rios, are struggling. Pierre is hitting .373 in his last 20 games while Beckham is hitting .348 since the All-Star break. Cleveland is without two of its best players as Grady Sizemore (sports hernia) and Shin Soo Choo (broken thumb) are both sidelined until late August. Chicago starter Gavin Floyd pitched well in his first start after the All-Star break and he pitches with the intensity manager Ozzie Guillen demands and appreciates.
COMING MONDAY.....A review of the newest casino in the Chicagoland area, Rivers Casino, a 147,000-square-foot property with 1,050 slot machines and nearly 50 table games located in suburban Des Plaines.
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My late mother, a deeply religious woman, seemingly delivered a different saying for every occasion and the above expression was among her favorites (along with biblical quotations like "You reap what you sow" and "This too shall pass").
Little did Mom know my daily lessons would be absorbed and digested in a Las Vegas sports book -- my house of worship -- where the congregation is more interested in profits than, ...er..., prophets.
Sports handicappers are information hogs, looking to learn something new every day. They are constantly processing the latest news, searching for relevant data either ignored by the betting marketplace or undervalued in the betting line.
Baseball is the ultimate information game in which 30 teams with 25 players a side compete over a 162-game schedule in a season that lasts over eight months, preseason and postseason included.
The critical element in studying past results to reveal future outcomes is the understanding of "predictive value." The term, used mostly by accountants and medical professionals, helps decision-makers forecast events with greater accuracy and more confidence.
Gamblers view every piece of information with several questions in mind: Is the information timely? Is this information relevant? Does the information make sense? Is a logical pattern evolving? Or do the results appear random without cause or explanation?
Listed below are four nuggets of Major League Baseball information I've uncovered over the past couple of days with my analysis of the data's predictive value:
ITEM: The three MLB teams sporting the best records -- the Phillies, Red Sox and Yankees -- are an incredible 74-23 in day games.
ANALYSIS: This is head-scratching material. These three teams have combined to win 61% of their games (177-112), but they've been victorious in 76% of their contests during daylight hours. Why? I'm not sure. I glance at day/night splits for teams and pitchers, but rarely find a plausible connection between past performances and future results. Is it possible the richest teams, loaded with veteran players, are more prepared and professional to compete on Saturday and Sunday afternoons following a Friday night game or a Saturday night on the town? I don't think so.
ITEM: The San Francisco Giants hired Jim Riggelman as a special assignment scout with an emphasis on National League East teams.
ANALYSIS: My initial thought was a good one. I immediately looked at San Francisco's remaining schedule to check if the defending World Series champs would meet the Washington Nationals. No luck. I thought Riggelman, fueled by revenge and resentment, would provide a detailed report to the Giants on the strengths and weaknesses of his old club. Instead, the Giants are scheduled to meet the Phillies seven times, the Braves four times and the Marlins thrice. Riggelman's old team was 11-17 against the NL East, so I'll monitor the Giants' results against NL East teams before forming an opinion on Riggelman's scouting abilities.
ITEM: The Philadelphia Phillies are 42-5 when scoring four or more runs.
ANALYSIS: It makes sense considering Philly's unbelievable pitching staff with the trio of aces -- Halladay, Lee and Hamels -- and the emerging young prospect Vance Worley. But the next item of discovery is the potential money-maker over the final two months of the baseball season.
ITEM: The Phillies this season are a perfect 5-0 in games following a high-scoring loss (I defined "high-scoring" as games in which both sides score four or more runs).
ANALYSIS: I always look to play good teams off a loss in every sport, but the classy Phils look like the perfect candidate to rebound after losing a high-scoring affair. The stellar pitching staff limits the production of opposing hitters while the Phils' offense, though not as prolific as in years past, is stocked with proven veterans. Philly was 8-5 last season with this angle and a perfect 5-0 this season. Let's keep an eye on this potential money-making trend.
FRIDAY'S BEST BET.....Play 921 CHICAGO WHITE SOX +101 over the Cleveland Indians. It's time for the South Siders to play to their $127 million payroll. Juan Pierre and Gordon Beckham are performing well, but Chicago's run-producers, especially Adam Dunn and Alex Rios, are struggling. Pierre is hitting .373 in his last 20 games while Beckham is hitting .348 since the All-Star break. Cleveland is without two of its best players as Grady Sizemore (sports hernia) and Shin Soo Choo (broken thumb) are both sidelined until late August. Chicago starter Gavin Floyd pitched well in his first start after the All-Star break and he pitches with the intensity manager Ozzie Guillen demands and appreciates.
COMING MONDAY.....A review of the newest casino in the Chicagoland area, Rivers Casino, a 147,000-square-foot property with 1,050 slot machines and nearly 50 table games located in suburban Des Plaines.
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