early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

mazeltrick

EOG Addicted
looking to attack a few races tomorrow. can't give away the store, but here are some thoughts:

r2- nw1x turfer for F&M and i like a cheap little cal-bred that is in great form, Secret Cove. these types make some of the best bets at the track- horses in good form going up the class ladder. some question marks surrounding the high beyer fig runners in here. anywhere near the 5/1 morning line is a must play.

r4- koriner filly, three for marino gets the one level bump in class and meets a bunch of cheap speed. i hope agapito sends this gal to the front and runs 'em off their feet. won't get the 12/1 opener, but should see at least 8/1.


r5- shirreffs' colt is a potential turf monster. other than the rail colt stretching out, nothing looks anywhere close to appealing.

r7- maiden sprint came up tough, but there's no way mandella's second timer, ava pie, should be 15/1. that's just crazy talk. filly just kind of ran around the track on dirt. no real turf breeding to lean on, unfortunately, but think she can run some.


r9- hollywood derby. annually, one of my favorite races. made a nice score with ultimate eagle last time, but we won't see anywhere near the 30/1. however, what we might see is the 'eagle loping on an uncontested lead yet again. irish art looks like the only one who wants to go early, so if those two can avoid hooking up, we may see another merry-go-round race. been a fan of Wilcox Inn, but like the other closers, i don't think the pace is going to be very closer-friendly.

good luck.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

Maze..im going to look for the 'stranger' in the big race.....i like your irish linnet colt and i love wilcoxx inn....they look like the best 'strangers' in the race. Also, the 2nd place finisher behind the Eagle last time was rip-roaring late while blocked, so, he's a factor obviously.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

Great to have mazeltrick posting a few goodies for Sunday's Hollywood Park card.

We don't want the store but a winner or two would be nice.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

Secret Cove won and paid $20.20.

Mazeltrick is impressive.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

FWIW i like the 11 horse in the final race today at Churchill. Its closing day there, this is the last race of the meet. Its a 2nd time starter with excellent breeding, she made a big v wide move as a firster and just got tired, she should be tighter today.
 

mazeltrick

EOG Addicted
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

dink- i'll trade you nhl for socal for the pendency of the puck season.

good luck everyone rest of the day. dink- i need your nhl selections to come in for a monster day.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

FWIW i like the 11 horse in the final race today at Churchill. Its closing day there, this is the last race of the meet. Its a 2nd time starter with excellent breeding, she made a big v wide move as a firster and just got tired, she should be tighter today.

ill play this one.

thanks

[TABLE="class: ticket, width: 2"]
<tbody>

[TD="class: ticket_cell_b"]

Churchill Downs​

[/TD]
[TD="class: ticket_cell_b"]

11​

[/TD]
[TD="class: ticket_cell_b"]

05:45 pm​

[/TD]
[TD="class: ticket_cell_b"]

11​

[/TD]
[TD="class: ticket_cell_b"]

Satyana​

[/TD]
[TD="class: ticket_cell_b"]

C. Borel​

[/TD]
[TD="class: ticket_cell_b"]

8/1​

[/TD]
[TD="class: ticket_cell_b"]

[/TD]


</tbody>[/TABLE]
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

Ugh sorry try 8-1 ML she's 2-1 first flash.

:doh1

Maybe i know more than Battaglia the ML maker?
 

dinkenson

EOG Dedicated
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

mmmm...this is getting serious... don't think you need my input for a huge day
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

If you won what i lost today on the ponies, you could fund a small civil war.:doh1
 

mazeltrick

EOG Addicted
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

FK. I was serious. Second best day I've had his year. I will be kicked out of a number of shops tOmorrow morning.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

I'm an idiot.

I gambled every day for three straight weeks and decided to take off a day.

Sunday was the day.

I went out to eat and enjoyed comedy at Harrah's.

I should have played the ponies at Hollywood Park.

Dammit.

Great work, mazel.
 

ChiTownJoe

EOG Dedicated
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

I never thought the 11 would hang on at a 1 1/4 in the Hollywood Derby, after barely hanging on at 1 1/8 Oak Tree Derby and coming home the last 1/8 in over 13 seconds...never the way Rosario's horse closed in the lane that day would I think the 11 would hold on racing 2 furlongs further. Then I saw the 6F split of 1:14 and change, and knew the closers were in trouble. I bet Cloud Man and thought he was sitting in a perfect spot on the rail pressing the 11&2 and then broke down.

Congrats on the big day MazelTrick
 

mazeltrick

EOG Addicted
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

CTJ- I think this is one of the biggest handicapping misperceptions out there. speed is a huge advantage in any race, but even more so the longer the races go, particularly on grass. When a horse is life and death to hold on at a mile or 1 1/16th and then stretches out to 9 or 10 furlongs, it often leads to great betting opportunities. too often the other jockeys see the same thing and are more willing to concede the lead if the race is longer, figuring there's no way that speed horse wants to go an extra furlong or two. nothing is more dangerous than a class horse allowed to gallop an a steady pace for 6 furlongs.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

CTJ- I think this is one of the biggest handicapping misperceptions out there. speed is a huge advantage in any race, but even more so the longer the races go, particularly on grass. When a horse is life and death to hold on at a mile or 1 1/16th and then stretches out to 9 or 10 furlongs, it often leads to great betting opportunities. too often the other jockeys see the same thing and are more willing to concede the lead if the race is longer, figuring there's no way that speed horse wants to go an extra furlong or two. nothing is more dangerous than a class horse allowed to gallop an a steady pace for 6 furlongs.

I'll remember that last line.

You should write a book, mazel.

James Quinn has nothing on you.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

I never thought the 11 would hang on at a 1 1/4 in the Hollywood Derby, after barely hanging on at 1 1/8 Oak Tree Derby and coming home the last 1/8 in over 13 seconds...never the way Rosario's horse closed in the lane that day would I think the 11 would hold on racing 2 furlongs further. Then I saw the 6F split of 1:14 and change, and knew the closers were in trouble. I bet Cloud Man and thought he was sitting in a perfect spot on the rail pressing the 11&2 and then broke down.

Congrats on the big day MazelTrick


One of the greatest angles in horse racing is when a horse wins while losing ground in the stretch and then goes a longer distance. People just assume that if his PP line looks the way it looks and then you add 1 or 2 furlongs, the horse would certainly perish. Its a simple way of thinking, but that's the great thing about racing, most people who are betting are simpletons.

Great stuff from Maze, he's dead on in post 20.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

wow great work!
Mazel is very sharp

Didja get the pink slips...?
 

mazeltrick

EOG Addicted
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

thanks Ray. hope you've had an enjoyable vacation. Let's get a dialogue going over the winter when gulf and SA open up. I'll stay out of your parimutuel pools if you stay out of mine. deal?
 

mazeltrick

EOG Addicted
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

and yes- booted from the horse books. in what is a sad testament to my mediocre sports gambling prowess, i am more than welcome to continue to play into WA numbers....
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: early thoughts from hollywood park- sunday

thanks Ray. hope you've had an enjoyable vacation. Let's get a dialogue going over the winter when gulf and SA open up. I'll stay out of your parimutuel pools if you stay out of mine. deal?

lol deal.... Gulf opens this Sat! Dec 3 and I didn't know until I heard it on the radio down there. Back in NY right now. Was planning on Dec off but Gulf was very profitable last yr so i'm playing starting day 1.
 
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