Re: Good article on Derby prospects by Gary West
Keep an open mind when selecting your Derby horse.
Unless you're making future bets, don't get married to your position too early.
Most 'stars' now are early developing horses who arent really geared to be successful in a mile and a quarter race in May. Right now, horses are being rated high on their talent to run fast...but the Derby is a race where the winner is a horse who can STAY. The Derby isnt really about running talent as much as it is about stamina talent. Most 'stamina' horses arent 'early developers' so many good ones show up at the last moment. This is why its hard for the 2 year old champ (or, a precocious 2 year old) to actually translate his success to winning a mile and a quarter race at CD on May 5th.
Also, CD is a very tricky surface, not every horse loves it, so if you don't have success on that surface as a 2 yo, its like pot luck. That's a hard track to be able to negotiate a mile and a quarter.