Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
- Thread starter FISHHEAD
- Start date
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
I think the niners rush has run its course and will hold steady now at 2.5 or it will be 3 with heavy juice. No way i see +3 -10.
I think the niners rush has run its course and will hold steady now at 2.5 or it will be 3 with heavy juice. No way i see +3 -10.
High Times
EOG Master
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
No chance of this game going to a solid -3 .....
Giant money will come and come big later in the week.
The early action is very questionable.
op:
No chance of this game going to a solid -3 .....
Giant money will come and come big later in the week.
The early action is very questionable.
op:
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
no. All the ML was on NYG early. Some buy back now but this game doesnt look to get a ton of action on the spread. Guys will lay -130/135 on the ML rather than -2.5 -115 or whatever it is. To get to -3 there would have to be a TON of SF money -2.5 I just dont see it, not with the way the ML is bouncing around. Because it is a perfect storm scenario. If enough ML money gets bet on the Giants to push the ML up enough to make people play the spread instead why would book move to a 'bad' number?
Books go to and open 3 when they dont want action for the most part. They clearly want action here, and by the looks they got the 'right' action as a lot of players are just taking the Giants ML and calling it a day. That is the normal M.O. in these types of games anyway where 'casual' bettors start betting. Most dont care about a spread they just pick a winner and bet.
But begging for a +3 is the ultimate "why do you bet anyway" statement. If you think you need the 3 to have an edge in case of a tie why bet the game at all? Just in case you get lucky and Giants win SU? The only spot +3 matters in this instance is if SF wins by exactly 3. If youre that scared of a 3 point game then dont bet at all or just lay the 2.5.
This falls right into my whole 'the 3 is meaningless' stance. All the 3 does is more or less give guys an excuse to bet a dog they might not want to bet in the first place and gives them insurance in case of a tie. Basically when you bet a dog to win +3 youre admitting defeat. You dont have enough balls to bet the ML but are basically hoping they win SU which makes youre +3 meaningless anyway. The only "win' for a guy betting +3 is when he pushes, and that isnt a win at all.
no. All the ML was on NYG early. Some buy back now but this game doesnt look to get a ton of action on the spread. Guys will lay -130/135 on the ML rather than -2.5 -115 or whatever it is. To get to -3 there would have to be a TON of SF money -2.5 I just dont see it, not with the way the ML is bouncing around. Because it is a perfect storm scenario. If enough ML money gets bet on the Giants to push the ML up enough to make people play the spread instead why would book move to a 'bad' number?
Books go to and open 3 when they dont want action for the most part. They clearly want action here, and by the looks they got the 'right' action as a lot of players are just taking the Giants ML and calling it a day. That is the normal M.O. in these types of games anyway where 'casual' bettors start betting. Most dont care about a spread they just pick a winner and bet.
But begging for a +3 is the ultimate "why do you bet anyway" statement. If you think you need the 3 to have an edge in case of a tie why bet the game at all? Just in case you get lucky and Giants win SU? The only spot +3 matters in this instance is if SF wins by exactly 3. If youre that scared of a 3 point game then dont bet at all or just lay the 2.5.
This falls right into my whole 'the 3 is meaningless' stance. All the 3 does is more or less give guys an excuse to bet a dog they might not want to bet in the first place and gives them insurance in case of a tie. Basically when you bet a dog to win +3 youre admitting defeat. You dont have enough balls to bet the ML but are basically hoping they win SU which makes youre +3 meaningless anyway. The only "win' for a guy betting +3 is when he pushes, and that isnt a win at all.
High Times
EOG Master
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
You forgot that fact that if the 49ers were legitimate favorites the Bettors would play anything lower than a -3. The game would go to 3 instantly. For the same reasons you stated ... the fear of -3.
If this game hasn't gone to -3 by now it will never get there.
As far as taking +2 1/2 or less that is something that has changed a lot over time. Now the Bettors have sharpened up and will bet the ML on the dog and forget about the 1 or 2 points. It's just not worth taking +2 1/2, +2, +1 1/2 or +1.
This is one of those few game where the books might need the Giants on the point spread, but will need the 49ers on the ML.
Thus the reason to make this game a PK and leave it there!
op:
You forgot that fact that if the 49ers were legitimate favorites the Bettors would play anything lower than a -3. The game would go to 3 instantly. For the same reasons you stated ... the fear of -3.
If this game hasn't gone to -3 by now it will never get there.
As far as taking +2 1/2 or less that is something that has changed a lot over time. Now the Bettors have sharpened up and will bet the ML on the dog and forget about the 1 or 2 points. It's just not worth taking +2 1/2, +2, +1 1/2 or +1.
This is one of those few game where the books might need the Giants on the point spread, but will need the 49ers on the ML.
Thus the reason to make this game a PK and leave it there!
op:Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
-2.5 looks like books are begging for SF money. 3.5 theyd be begging for NYG money. throwing up 2.5 thy could have just as easily thrown up 4.5 except they would have to give way too much on the NYG ML.
2.5 is the psychological number in this case. As it always is. Its a number they use (along with 3 and 3.5) to illicit a reaction from people who think they have a clue. More than likely it wont be close to the spread. But scared money always wants some back up. If SF happens to win this game by exactly a FG I suspect books will have a home run.
Hell Pinnacle might throw it up anyway at massive vig. I probably would if I were them. As long as they dont open up a middle they dont have a lot to lose. So if they sucker guys into making Giants +3 -125 or so and giants win SU no harm no foul, if Giants lose by more than 3 they 'win'. Because most guys lay the -125 per 100 rather than 100 to get back 80. If Giants lose by 1 or 2 (which falls into the spread range already) then it would be a matter of how many people took the +3 -125 that wouldnt have taken +2.5 +105. Thats where the real book KEEPING comes in for these places. Assessing how many 'extra' bets they took that they might not have. But since only one outcome really matters then I am sure they have a formula for it.
This is the same discussion we had at the RX about 7 or 8 years ago where the Shrink was trying to value the game and the ML and basically everyone was wrong, but they still all tried to make it seem like they knew what they were talking about. Pretty sure it was New Engalnd and Pittsburg.
I said the same thing then I am saying now. Bet the ML on the dog side or lay the points with the fav. or if you want to play the game look for the ML on the fav if it get s ridiculously low. Chances of a 1 or 2 point game are miniscule, but in one of the last 3 games of the season it will be highlighted for many. So it blows their minds basically, and feeds this paranoia about games lined around -3.
You forgot that fact that if the 49ers were legitimate favorites the Bettors would play anything lower than a -3. The game would go to 3 instantly. For the same reasons you stated ... the fear of -3.
If this game hasn't gone to -3 by now it will never get there.
As far as taking +2 1/2 or less that is something that has changed a lot over time. Now the Bettors have sharpened up and will bet the ML on the dog and forget about the 1 or 2 points. It's just not worth taking +2 1/2, +2, +1 1/2 or +1.
This is one of those few game where the books might need the Giants on the point spread, but will need the 49ers on the ML.
Thus the reason to make this game a PK and leave it there!
-2.5 looks like books are begging for SF money. 3.5 theyd be begging for NYG money. throwing up 2.5 thy could have just as easily thrown up 4.5 except they would have to give way too much on the NYG ML.
2.5 is the psychological number in this case. As it always is. Its a number they use (along with 3 and 3.5) to illicit a reaction from people who think they have a clue. More than likely it wont be close to the spread. But scared money always wants some back up. If SF happens to win this game by exactly a FG I suspect books will have a home run.
Hell Pinnacle might throw it up anyway at massive vig. I probably would if I were them. As long as they dont open up a middle they dont have a lot to lose. So if they sucker guys into making Giants +3 -125 or so and giants win SU no harm no foul, if Giants lose by more than 3 they 'win'. Because most guys lay the -125 per 100 rather than 100 to get back 80. If Giants lose by 1 or 2 (which falls into the spread range already) then it would be a matter of how many people took the +3 -125 that wouldnt have taken +2.5 +105. Thats where the real book KEEPING comes in for these places. Assessing how many 'extra' bets they took that they might not have. But since only one outcome really matters then I am sure they have a formula for it.
This is the same discussion we had at the RX about 7 or 8 years ago where the Shrink was trying to value the game and the ML and basically everyone was wrong, but they still all tried to make it seem like they knew what they were talking about. Pretty sure it was New Engalnd and Pittsburg.
I said the same thing then I am saying now. Bet the ML on the dog side or lay the points with the fav. or if you want to play the game look for the ML on the fav if it get s ridiculously low. Chances of a 1 or 2 point game are miniscule, but in one of the last 3 games of the season it will be highlighted for many. So it blows their minds basically, and feeds this paranoia about games lined around -3.
FISHHEAD
EOG Master
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
Almost makes more sense, at least right now. ML is dog shit for +2.5. I saw a +115 somewhere.
It opened +140 but I dont think it will come close to getting there again. So if you get +2.5 +110 why would you take even a +120 ML?
Almost makes more sense, at least right now. ML is dog shit for +2.5. I saw a +115 somewhere.
It opened +140 but I dont think it will come close to getting there again. So if you get +2.5 +110 why would you take even a +120 ML?
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
Agreed, but i think giants are team to beat right now, clicking and hot at right time,
First game teams played gonna benefit the gmen this weekend, imo
Should be close either way, 23-20 type for blue
Agreed, but i think giants are team to beat right now, clicking and hot at right time,
First game teams played gonna benefit the gmen this weekend, imo
Should be close either way, 23-20 type for blue
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
Exactly, and in a game i believe will be real close , i want the points even if is traditionally not wise
Exactly, and in a game i believe will be real close , i want the points even if is traditionally not wise
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
I would think there is alot of $$ on teasers getting the gmen past 7 and over 38 or thereabouts. Going to 3 would only push to much money for the books - they stay 1/2 as I see it.
I would think there is alot of $$ on teasers getting the gmen past 7 and over 38 or thereabouts. Going to 3 would only push to much money for the books - they stay 1/2 as I see it.
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
I think the giants can and will win this outright. Their defense is almost as good as the 9ers and their offense is a bit better.
Gonna be a great game regardless.
I think the giants can and will win this outright. Their defense is almost as good as the 9ers and their offense is a bit better.
Gonna be a great game regardless.
carolinakid
Banned
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
as the week move on the more im thinking imo the giants are the right side in this one.............
as the week move on the more im thinking imo the giants are the right side in this one.............
High Times
EOG Master
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
Don't stop thinking :LMAO
Don't stop thinking :LMAO
carolinakid
Banned
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
giants are the better team in this one...........too many people are looking at last week against a dome team
giants are the better team in this one...........too many people are looking at last week against a dome team
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
I still like SF but not worth betting. Even though
Giants +346 to win SB, SF +333.
Weird because SF prob a bigger dog than Giants are if Pats win.
I still like SF but not worth betting. Even though
Giants +346 to win SB, SF +333.
Weird because SF prob a bigger dog than Giants are if Pats win.
Flamingo kid
Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
Rumors about Eli Manning being sick...that ought to move the line.
Rumors about Eli Manning being sick...that ought to move the line.
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
I respectively disagree. Sf defense is far better than NYG. Sf would be playing GB if Aaron Rodgers showed up Sunday. Just look at SF's takeaways. And they have 6 all pro on defense/specials.
I respectively disagree. Sf defense is far better than NYG. Sf would be playing GB if Aaron Rodgers showed up Sunday. Just look at SF's takeaways. And they have 6 all pro on defense/specials.
J
joeybagadonuts
Guest
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
We have a storm moving into the bay area tomorrow and will be most likely raining on Sunday.
Mind you this is the first rain we are expecting since back in October or so.
We have a storm moving into the bay area tomorrow and will be most likely raining on Sunday.
Mind you this is the first rain we are expecting since back in October or so.
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
http://mobi.phillyburbs.com/phillyburbs/db_282655/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=INKgQFsQ
http://mobi.phillyburbs.com/phillyburbs/db_282655/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=INKgQFsQ
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
Good post, Its going to be a great game. Welcome to eog :cheers
Good post, Its going to be a great game. Welcome to eog :cheers
Flamingo kid
Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
Why would he not show up? Maybe the Giants blanketed his receivers and he had nobody to throw to?
Why would he not show up? Maybe the Giants blanketed his receivers and he had nobody to throw to?
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
3 is not gonna be good for the books. I can assure you of that.
3 is not gonna be good for the books. I can assure you of that.
William Lee
Banned
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
Not a rumor it's a fact, he missed most of practice yesterday due to his stomach problems. Is it a 24 hour bug or is it something he ate or is it THE FLU? GO GIANTS!:houra
Not a rumor it's a fact, he missed most of practice yesterday due to his stomach problems. Is it a 24 hour bug or is it something he ate or is it THE FLU? GO GIANTS!:houra
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
It would be the most costly $$ "side" of the year.
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
LOL at you guys how is a 3 point win costly? I havent seen a 3.5 anywhere? Are you intimating that people are buying to 3.5? If it is a 3 pt win anyone who just bought to 3 pushes. All the ML money on the ginats, which looks lie it is substantial lost. Any +2.5 money on Gaants is also lost.
Books ose nothing on a 3 point game, unless as I say someone bought to 3.5, but if theyre going to pay 45-50 cents for it then I guess they deserve to make laittle something.
LOL at you guys how is a 3 point win costly? I havent seen a 3.5 anywhere? Are you intimating that people are buying to 3.5? If it is a 3 pt win anyone who just bought to 3 pushes. All the ML money on the ginats, which looks lie it is substantial lost. Any +2.5 money on Gaants is also lost.
Books ose nothing on a 3 point game, unless as I say someone bought to 3.5, but if theyre going to pay 45-50 cents for it then I guess they deserve to make laittle something.
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
Rodgers flat out MISSED wide open receivers. Throws he's completed ALL season long he was missing by 5-10 yards this past Sunday. I'm sorry, but Rodgers played the worst he has all year v. NY last week. That fact makes NY look better than they really are this week imo. SF is the play.
Rodgers flat out MISSED wide open receivers. Throws he's completed ALL season long he was missing by 5-10 yards this past Sunday. I'm sorry, but Rodgers played the worst he has all year v. NY last week. That fact makes NY look better than they really are this week imo. SF is the play.
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
Rodgers was the best player on the field on sunday. Did he play up to his normal standards? No, because his normal standards are not human.
His receivers dropped easy catch after easy catch. Rodgers missed maybe 2 or 3 throws he should have made, but if the rest of the game was any indication his WR's would have dropped those passes anyways.
Rodgers has to win the game by himself. He had i believe 6 or 7 first down runs from 3rd and long, all of them he had to avoid a pass rush or make a LB miss. These weren't easy first down and slide runs.
SF wins this game because they are better and they are at home. Defense is miles better than New York all around imo, and the offense is more balanced. You shut down Nicks and you can do a good job on the Giants. I don't think they score more than 20. Probably less
Rodgers was the best player on the field on sunday. Did he play up to his normal standards? No, because his normal standards are not human.
His receivers dropped easy catch after easy catch. Rodgers missed maybe 2 or 3 throws he should have made, but if the rest of the game was any indication his WR's would have dropped those passes anyways.
Rodgers has to win the game by himself. He had i believe 6 or 7 first down runs from 3rd and long, all of them he had to avoid a pass rush or make a LB miss. These weren't easy first down and slide runs.
SF wins this game because they are better and they are at home. Defense is miles better than New York all around imo, and the offense is more balanced. You shut down Nicks and you can do a good job on the Giants. I don't think they score more than 20. Probably less
High Times
EOG Master
High Times
EOG Master
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
San Fran has had a great year.
Hand feed an indoor team that gave them the game.
Why are the 49ers better?
What have they done to show they are nothing more than a weak NFC division winner that got lucky in their playoff game?
:+clueless
San Fran has had a great year.
Hand feed an indoor team that gave them the game.
Why are the 49ers better?
What have they done to show they are nothing more than a weak NFC division winner that got lucky in their playoff game?
:+clueless
Re: Do GIANTS get to +3 -110 before kickoff at some decent shop?
I don't think you are reading it like he meant it. He means like " the player sided that game" laid 2.5 took 3.
And wantitall whatever ur name is. You can hang your hat on this. Any book that books any volume at all.......... the further the game can get from the number the better.
bookie's buckets are gonna be full of -2.5 and plus 3 and plus 3.5 they will buy to and thru the three all day long. they don't care how much it costs.
see balt houston last week. fell on side and close to total. books hated it. you couldn't book a losing teaser
I don't think you are reading it like he meant it. He means like " the player sided that game" laid 2.5 took 3.
And wantitall whatever ur name is. You can hang your hat on this. Any book that books any volume at all.......... the further the game can get from the number the better.
bookie's buckets are gonna be full of -2.5 and plus 3 and plus 3.5 they will buy to and thru the three all day long. they don't care how much it costs.
see balt houston last week. fell on side and close to total. books hated it. you couldn't book a losing teaser