focker
EOG Veteran
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000071145
he likes Pats
[video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000071145[/video]
he likes Pats
[video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000071145[/video]
Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
- Thread starter focker
- Start date
Re: young John Netto on CNBC today
Re: young John Netto on CNBC today
Netto will be interviewed live on CNBC tomorrow.
Re: young John Netto on CNBC today
Netto will be interviewed live on CNBC tomorrow.
KingRevolver
Born Rambler
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today
Thanks for posting the video, Focker. :cheers
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today
Thanks for posting the video, Focker. :cheers
focker
EOG Veteran
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
Netto was a great host.
I felt like an extra.
No speaking role.
Next time, I'll pimp my EOG hat and EOG shirt.
Hehe.
Netto was a great host.
I felt like an extra.
No speaking role.
Next time, I'll pimp my EOG hat and EOG shirt.
Hehe.
Heim
EOG Master
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
Not a good day for the Southern Highlands 'think tank'......Netto on Pats, Servansky on
the over and White guaranteeing no safety on the show 'Linesmaker'. If Nover came
in to grab a donut he was on Pats as well. You would think these guys live in Las
Cruces not Las Vegas being so far off the information highway.
btw talked to Osborne the other day and mercifully it looks like 'The Linesmaker'
won't be renewed.
Not a good day for the Southern Highlands 'think tank'......Netto on Pats, Servansky on
the over and White guaranteeing no safety on the show 'Linesmaker'. If Nover came
in to grab a donut he was on Pats as well. You would think these guys live in Las
Cruces not Las Vegas being so far off the information highway.
btw talked to Osborne the other day and mercifully it looks like 'The Linesmaker'
won't be renewed.
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
Las Cruces not Las Vegas.
Funny, very funny.
Las Cruces not Las Vegas.
Funny, very funny.
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
Actually it was a profitable day for me and close to being a total blockbuster (If Pats win by 1/2/3 pts). Living here in Las Vegas provides some great Arbs/middles. Per my live twitter feed @JohnNetto and posts on Facebook. Was able to set up a very nice Pats Money Line -130 and Giants +3 -110 at the same minute the day before the Super Bowl. 3rd quarter +160 Giants In-game big play on G-men (b/c in-game is what I do well while NFL sides is what I'm shitty at) With Giants trailing by 2, was able to nearly guarantee a win on this amazing middle (could have been totally screwed with a late pats pic 6) by playing G-Men to win down 2 with 3:30 left...I even lost money on no safety and 2nd half over bet which had me over 26 and it closed over 27.5.
From both a process and P and L perspective was very happy with the outcome...
Actually it was a profitable day for me and close to being a total blockbuster (If Pats win by 1/2/3 pts). Living here in Las Vegas provides some great Arbs/middles. Per my live twitter feed @JohnNetto and posts on Facebook. Was able to set up a very nice Pats Money Line -130 and Giants +3 -110 at the same minute the day before the Super Bowl. 3rd quarter +160 Giants In-game big play on G-men (b/c in-game is what I do well while NFL sides is what I'm shitty at) With Giants trailing by 2, was able to nearly guarantee a win on this amazing middle (could have been totally screwed with a late pats pic 6) by playing G-Men to win down 2 with 3:30 left...I even lost money on no safety and 2nd half over bet which had me over 26 and it closed over 27.5.
From both a process and P and L perspective was very happy with the outcome...
BigDaddy
EOG Master
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
John Netto with one of the great minds here at EOG....I enjoy the time I get to listen to John speak about trading or sportsbetting....you get to learn from another perspective if you keep an open mind....
John Netto with one of the great minds here at EOG....I enjoy the time I get to listen to John speak about trading or sportsbetting....you get to learn from another perspective if you keep an open mind....
PerpetualCzech
EOG Addicted
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
There is no snowball's chance in hell this was a profitable combination of bets.
The only analysis you need to determine this is to quote percentages for NE winning by One, Two and Three. Do you want to go first or should I?
There is no snowball's chance in hell this was a profitable combination of bets.
The only analysis you need to determine this is to quote percentages for NE winning by One, Two and Three. Do you want to go first or should I?
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
BigDaddy - "great work John"
Viejo Dinosaur - "John Netto with one of the great minds here at EOG....I enjoy the time I get to listen to John speak about trading or sportsbetting....you get to learn from another perspective if you keep an open mind...."
Why don't either of you jump in and respond to PerpetualCzech's post if Netto isn't around?
You both praised Netto's post containing this middle.
Surely you weren't just accepting it as a great middle simply because Netto told you it's a great middle?
BigDaddy - "great work John"
Viejo Dinosaur - "John Netto with one of the great minds here at EOG....I enjoy the time I get to listen to John speak about trading or sportsbetting....you get to learn from another perspective if you keep an open mind...."
Why don't either of you jump in and respond to PerpetualCzech's post if Netto isn't around?
You both praised Netto's post containing this middle.
Surely you weren't just accepting it as a great middle simply because Netto told you it's a great middle?
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
Yeah, I'm surprised Netto took this middle. He's the first one to teach me about implied volatility in sports betting.
Yeah, I'm surprised Netto took this middle. He's the first one to teach me about implied volatility in sports betting.
PerpetualCzech
EOG Addicted
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
It's not like it was a huge blunder or anything. Seems like the whole world missed out on the fact these points were worth less than normal for this game (esp. the Three). It's just douchey to publicly pat yourself on the back like that simply because it almost ended up winning.
It's not like it was a huge blunder or anything. Seems like the whole world missed out on the fact these points were worth less than normal for this game (esp. the Three). It's just douchey to publicly pat yourself on the back like that simply because it almost ended up winning.
SlipperyPete
EOG Dedicated
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
Seems like all the "sharps" now are killing live wagering
op:
Seems like all the "sharps" now are killing live wagering
op:
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
Looking at the overall contributions and ideas that Netto has conveyed...not just one instance like the Superbowl....
Looking at the overall contributions and ideas that Netto has conveyed...not just one instance like the Superbowl....
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
"Surely you weren't just accepting it as a great middle simply because Netto told you it's a great middle? "
Nice sidestep. So how do you evaluate the middle posted by Netto? Hint: it does not involve a calculation of the implied volatility.
"Surely you weren't just accepting it as a great middle simply because Netto told you it's a great middle? "
Nice sidestep. So how do you evaluate the middle posted by Netto? Hint: it does not involve a calculation of the implied volatility.
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
Never said I accepted his middle, did I?
I just like to listen to any ideas about gambling and how it affects other venues...
I am certainly not as intelligent or capable of answering that question more than you...but I like to formulate my own opinons from listening to others; right or wrong....
Never said I accepted his middle, did I?
I just like to listen to any ideas about gambling and how it affects other venues...
I am certainly not as intelligent or capable of answering that question more than you...but I like to formulate my own opinons from listening to others; right or wrong....
PerpetualCzech
EOG Addicted
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
Because what's important of course is that it's *your* opinion, not whether it's actually right or wrong.
Because what's important of course is that it's *your* opinion, not whether it's actually right or wrong.
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
What is important is that I will even listen to guys like you who thinks he has all the answers...I tend to give everyone the benefit of the doubt...but usually only in gambling related topics...:cheers
What is important is that I will even listen to guys like you who thinks he has all the answers...I tend to give everyone the benefit of the doubt...but usually only in gambling related topics...:cheers
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Ray Luca
EOG Master
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
you laid a total of -240 (-130 + -110) and cashed +210 (110 + 100)= net -30
Is saying you lost 12.5% on ur money correct..?
you laid a total of -240 (-130 + -110) and cashed +210 (110 + 100)= net -30
Is saying you lost 12.5% on ur money correct..?
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
What makes you think he is full of it? Really curious.....
What makes you think he is full of it? Really curious.....
Ray Luca
EOG Master
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
I like Netto, please don't take this question the wrong way.
I like Netto, please don't take this question the wrong way.
BigDaddy
EOG Master
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
you can put me in that lost group as i fell for it.
i figured he was sharp as JK praised him a lot and he has been on tv news shows as well.
scooter can you point me to a forum where i can learn a few things from some actual sharps?
thank you:cheers
you can put me in that lost group as i fell for it.
i figured he was sharp as JK praised him a lot and he has been on tv news shows as well.
scooter can you point me to a forum where i can learn a few things from some actual sharps?
thank you:cheers
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
Yes, but that is looking backwards after the game is over. Virtually any middle/side trades off a likely small loss for a less-likely substantial gain. This is the case here. The key to whether a bet is good is if statistically it produces a net profit in the long-term, i.e. is +EV.
PC initially overstated the case (subsequently corrected), this bet is fairly close to EV = 0, i.e. neutral. It depends on how you quanitify the chances (probabilities) of the Pats winning the game by 1,2, and 3. A conservative model based on the NFL data over the last 17 years (since the two-pt conversion was implemented) suggests the combination bet is slighly -EV. Further, because of the new OT rules, the value of the 3 is slightly reduced making the bet combination a little worse.
Yes, but that is looking backwards after the game is over. Virtually any middle/side trades off a likely small loss for a less-likely substantial gain. This is the case here. The key to whether a bet is good is if statistically it produces a net profit in the long-term, i.e. is +EV.
PC initially overstated the case (subsequently corrected), this bet is fairly close to EV = 0, i.e. neutral. It depends on how you quanitify the chances (probabilities) of the Pats winning the game by 1,2, and 3. A conservative model based on the NFL data over the last 17 years (since the two-pt conversion was implemented) suggests the combination bet is slighly -EV. Further, because of the new OT rules, the value of the 3 is slightly reduced making the bet combination a little worse.
Ray Luca
EOG Master
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
ok, thanks. Why not buy the hook and take Giants +3.5 in order to have 3 working for a middle as opposed to a side?
ok, thanks. Why not buy the hook and take Giants +3.5 in order to have 3 working for a middle as opposed to a side?
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
Many Vegas books won't let you buy on or off an NFL 3 because its overall "worth" is about 23 cents. Most offshores will have a drop-down ability to buy to 3.5. If the price is 20 cents, generally its a small + to buy to the +3.5. In this case, it doesn't really change the long-term overall return by much.
It should be noted that even a very small +EV combination bet here isn't necessarily good because of the variance involved and tying up bankroll if other better opportunities exist.
Many Vegas books won't let you buy on or off an NFL 3 because its overall "worth" is about 23 cents. Most offshores will have a drop-down ability to buy to 3.5. If the price is 20 cents, generally its a small + to buy to the +3.5. In this case, it doesn't really change the long-term overall return by much.
It should be noted that even a very small +EV combination bet here isn't necessarily good because of the variance involved and tying up bankroll if other better opportunities exist.
PerpetualCzech
EOG Addicted
Re: Young John Netto on CNBC today (video)
FWIW I made the One+Two for this game 4.0% and the Three 7.5%. The value of the Three was hurt not only by the OT rules but also by the high total.
45%*-30+4%*200+7.5%*100+43.5%*-10 = -2.35 expected return on an investment of 240, or about -1% ROI.
FWIW I made the One+Two for this game 4.0% and the Three 7.5%. The value of the Three was hurt not only by the OT rules but also by the high total.
45%*-30+4%*200+7.5%*100+43.5%*-10 = -2.35 expected return on an investment of 240, or about -1% ROI.