My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I'm constantly looking for my next bet.

At this time of the college basketball season, I'm searching for highly-ranked teams playing poorly or lowly-rated teams playing well.

Meet Ohio State and DePaul, the former a highly-rated team in a season-low funk and the latter a team continuing to play hard despite a lack of success.

The Buckeyes have lost two of their last three games, failing to cash for their backers in three of their last four contests.

Following the Buckeyes' 10-point home loss to Michigan State on February 11, several Ohio State players complained about a lack of offensive aggressiveness and more disturbingly an unwillingness to help teammates on both ends of the floor.

Jared Sullinger, Ohio State's most high-profile player, often sulks on the court and his teammates rarely rally around the overrated star.

Here's my favorite reason to fade Ohio State: instead of executing the offensive game plan and playing defense with energy and enthusiasm, the Buckeyes (Sullinger specifically) have played sloppy basketball, constantly looking at the scoreboard in the second half as if to play only as well as required.

The best teams in the country, especially well-coached teams, focus on the plan and the process, allowing the score to take care of itself.

DePaul is one of the worst teams in the Big East but it's not due to a lack of heart or hustle but rather a lack of talent.

Oliver Purnell's team continues to play hard despite losing 14 of its 16 Big East games.

The Blue Demons last Saturday missed a golden opportunity to post an upset over Louisville when losing to the Cardinals in overtime, 90-82.

DePaul, a 10-point home underdog, came out ready and focused to play at Allstate Arena, shooting nearly 55% from the field in the first half and posting a pair of impressive scoring runs (16-0 and 16-2) against a shell-shocked Louisville squad.

Following the game, opposing coach Rick Pitino paid DePaul a worthy compliment when he said, "They (DePaul) play their butts off every night and they don't come away with much at times---but that's the building process you've got to go through. They play everybody tough."

More on the DePaul Blue Demons later in this blog entry.


DERBY 138.....Hansen won the Eclipse Award as champion two-year-old colt of 2011, but Union Rags is the better Derby prospect.

That was my opinion last November following the running of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs -- a race won by Hansen over Union Rags -- and it remains my opinion today, 88 days after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 75 days prior to the first Saturday in May.

EOG contributors Ray Luca and Discreet Cat went on record this weekend with their early thoughts on the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Luca hesitated to mention his top Derby contenders before seeing the leading candidates in prep races at the all-important distance of nine furlongs.

"The four fastest horses as of today are Union Rags, Algorithms, Creative Cause and El Padrino. A lot can change between now and May 5. If you want a price horse, take a look at Empire Way," replied Luca.

"Cat" wrote, "I've been impressed with a few Bob Baffert-trained horses. Fed Biz looked good, so did Bodemeister and don't forget about Baffert's filly, Princess Arabella. It's a longshot, but if Baffert's colts fail in some of the leading prep races, he may look to his star filly. I hear she's built like an amazon. Strictly back-burner stuff right now, but you never know."

My top three-year-olds for Derby 138 are Union Rags, El Padrino and Creative Cause, in that order.


MONDAY'S BEST BET......Play 527 DEPAUL +5.5 over St. John's.

The Blue Demons look to avenge an 87-81 home loss to the Red Storm on February 1, when D'Angelo Harrison went 7-for-11 from beyond the arc for a Johnnies team among the worst in Division I (ranked 334 of 344) in three-point shooting accuracy.

St. John's played only six players in its mild upset over UCLA last Saturday with its starting lineup featuring five freshman.

DePaul has led or been tied at halftime in five of its last six games.

The game will be played at Carnesecca Arena in Queens, not Madison Square Garden where the arena was only one-third full for the Saturday game against UCLA.

There's not a lot of excitement surrounding St. John's basketball right now.

Head coach Steve Lavin, still recovering from prostate cancer surgery, will not be on the sidelines for St. John's.


COMING TUESDAY.....A look at the not-so-shocking Wichita State win on the road against Davidson.
 

dinkenson

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

what about depaul first half instead......ceative cause ran pretty awful 2day at santa anita...may have been a tightener, but still awful....
 

railbird

EOG Master
Re: My Monday blog

what about depaul first half instead......ceative cause ran pretty awful 2day at santa anita...may have been a tightener, but still awful....

no, you want a road 1st half vs a strong home court or team, sju is neither right now. if depaul gets stuck at half a 2H press bet may be in order.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

Creative Cause was third at odds of 1-2 in yesterday's San Vicente at Santa Anita.

Mazeltrick called it and nedrow9 had the winner (Drill).

I think DePaul is a solid bet in the first half.

Better than the full game?

Hard for me to say.
 

copenique

EOG Enthusiast
Re: My Monday blog

JK is finally starting to heat up and taking those "doggies" to the bank as outright winners as Oregon beat Stanford at Stanford as a 5 1/2 puppy!!!! As the conductor says "All Aboard"!!!!! Good luck JK and keep those winners comming!!!!!!
 

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

Nice pick tonight; they will probably win outright. Do you have any news on Steve Lavin? His recovery from prostate cancer treatment seems to be much longer than most. Suffice it to say, his health comes first, but St John's season has been a lost cause.
 

bimmercando

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

Very good one with Oregon !
Had it 'cuz of you. I know nada about NCAA.
Just the good and the bad ones.

thx
 

mazeltrick

EOG Addicted
Re: My Monday blog

I disagree with Union Rags being the better prospect than Hansen. Hansen ran a vastly superior race to Rags in Juvenille and I really hate watching horses have dead aim and weave in and out in the stretch like Rags did. Pass for me until he can run straight as a pin. Until both run this year we won't know for sure, but Hansen is higher on my list. California finally has some real runners this year and I think we won't know much until the San Felipe and SA Derby. I am still very high on Blingo, who may end up better suited for turf, but trains really well on the dirt, can run all day and has a turn of foot that may make him very interesting this spring. I am a fan of El Padrino and not so much on Discreet Dancer and Algorithms.

On another note, I saw a near Twitter-gasm prasing Animal Kingdom's return win vs. a bunch of pigs on turf Saturday afternoon. As a fan, I'm glad he's back racing and wish him well, but please, let's hold off on how great he is 'til he beats horses who have all four legs.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

DERBY 138.....Hansen won the Eclipse Award as champion two-year-old colt of 2011, but Union Rags is the better Derby prospect.

That was my opinion last November following the running of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs -- a race won by Hansen over Union Rags -- and it remains my opinion today, 88 days after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 75 days prior to the first Saturday in May.

EOG contributors Ray Luca and Discreet Cat went on record this weekend with their early thoughts on the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Luca hesitated to mention his top Derby contenders before seeing the leading candidates in prep races at the all-important distance of nine furlongs.

"The four fastest horses as of today are Union Rags, Algorithms, Creative Cause and El Padrino. A lot can change between now and May 5. If you want a price horse, take a look at Empire Way," replied Luca.

"Cat" wrote, "I've been impressed with a few Bob Baffert-trained horses. Fed Biz looked good, so did Bodemeister and don't forget about Baffert's filly, Princess Arabella. It's a longshot, but if Baffert's colts fail in some of the leading prep races, he may look to his star filly. I hear she's built like an amazon. Strictly back-burner stuff right now, but you never know."

My top three-year-olds for Derby 138 are Union Rags, El Padrino and Creative Cause, in that order.

It's been a long time since I felt Even money was outstanding value, but that was the case in Princess Arabella's debut and made for a nice horizontal single. She wasn't a secret to those that saw this massive filly. Baffert taking her time with her as chose ALWN1X over right to a stakes race which he's done in the past; think he knows he has something special here. She won't be intimidated by 3YO males as she looks completely out of place running against 3YO fillies from a physical standpoint.............I don't think Fed Biz wants anything to do with 1 1/4, I give him very, very little chance. I don't think he wants much to do with anything over 1M against top quality competition. I do like Ray's lean in Empire Way as a price play. One thing you know is he'll thrive at the distance. The further the better for him.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

Nice pick tonight; they will probably win outright. Do you have any news on Steve Lavin? His recovery from prostate cancer treatment seems to be much longer than most. Suffice it to say, his health comes first, but St John's season has been a lost cause.

I've read he will stay away from the coaching sidelines for the remainder of the season.

He's spending most of his time on the recruiting trail.
 

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

The red storm plays a lot better in carnesecca

Play better or is more a matter of playing lesser competition? Either way I suppose DePaul falls into the category of lesser competition.

I liked DePaul's effort vs Louisville but I wouldn't go nuts on them based on the L'ville game alone. L'ville has a habit of playing down (they lost to Providence by 31 in January).
 

justintalk

EOG Veteran
Re: My Monday blog

Its senior day the irreplaceable Boris Brakalov will be honored.Lone senior Boris Brakalov, a former student-manager turned practice performer turned walk-on sharpshooter, will be honored on Monday night at Carnesecca Arena.:cheers [h=1][/h]
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

I wonder if St. John's will honor Boris with a starting assignment.

If so, Dink's suggestion to play the first half looks a little better.

Boris in the starting lineup may be worth half-point in favor of DePaul unless he buries a 3-ball (hehe).
 

bimmercando

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

I knew you were getting hot on the NCAA courts !

Keep it up and maybe Dink will keep us all in the $$ !
 

Paleface

EOG 500 Champion Dec. 2013
Re: My Monday blog

Brutal loss as some dumba$$ from DePaul turned it over in the last5 secs and the easy layup for the backdoor (frontdoor?) cover for St. John's.
 

JCROM777

EOG Addicted
Re: My Monday blog

Sorry about the bad beat, I thought we were going to get the backdoor cover. I just watched the
last 2 minutes so can't really comment on the game.
:pop:
 
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