A Few Baseball Props for 2012

T

Tim Patterson

EOG Dedicated
I made only three prop bets for this year.
I'll post what I made the wagers at.

Blue Jays over 80.5 -150
This could be the surprise team of 2012.
Rotation is fair, bullpen much improved.
The lineup should not have a problem scoring runs.
Trouble is, they are in the same division as the big three.
I think they will cause waves and win their share of games.
My guess? 83-85 wins, enough to cash this ticket.

Red Sox under 90.5
Tough division and I don't think the Bosox go to the post season.
There is so much competition within the division and watch out for Texas and
Anaheim to win 89+ and take two post season berths. I think this is the year the Bosox might drop down in the 4th spot with Toronto taking 3rd behind the Rays/Yanks (not necessarily in that order).

Detroit to win Division -400
Before you start lauging at the juice I layed, I think if there is a slam dunk, this is it.
The division is the pits. I don't even think Cleveland will be a contender. They regress this year. Detroit is better in all categories when you line them up against the rest of this division.
You cash this ticket by September 20th. Detroit will be in cruise control by Labor day.

Good luck to all.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

Toronto I like, Boston I don't, and I agree Detroit wins unless they lose Verlander, Fielder, Cabrera and someone else I can't think of at the moment. GL Tim.:cheers
 
C

Cee

2
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

I actually kinda agree with all these plays. I'd be scared to to lay -150 with TOR tho. Unless I'm missing something , they only have one starter you can count on for 200 innings.

Santos should be good at closing, but then again only one good season he had so who knows. Like their offense. Unsure on their pitching overall
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

Sometimes -400 offers value.

I trust Timmay did his work on the AL Central before laying 4 to win 1.
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

Tigers are a lock however guys like Cokin would never dream of locking in -400
money for 6 months....
 
VegasRandy

VegasRandy

EOG Veteran
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

The Tigers have some ground ball pitchers that could lead to more balls to the face for Cabrera.
 
Mr. Smith

Mr. Smith

EOG Master
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

for the record, the red sox scored the most runs in baseball last year at 875 and won 90 games even with a putrid last month. red sox were +138 runs scored vs runs allowed which was significantly better than any other team not to make the playoffs and was 4th overall

Buchholz being out most of the year was awful for them.
 
Mr. Smith

Mr. Smith

EOG Master
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

the next best team run differential not to make the playoffs behind Boston at +138 was Atlanta +36
 
NickPappagiorgio

NickPappagiorgio

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

Much of the hype this preseason has been on the Jays, like it has for many years previous. Yet Vegas is thinking that they are only a .500 team. Vegas isnt wrong often.

GL with your wagers.
 
T

Tim Patterson

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

Cee said:
I actually kinda agree with all these plays. I'd be scared to to lay -150 with TOR tho. Unless I'm missing something , they only have one starter you can count on for 200 innings.

Santos should be good at closing, but then again only one good season he had so who knows. Like their offense. Unsure on their pitching overall
Click to expand...

Cee, thanks for your thoughts.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

Heim said:
Tigers are a lock however guys like Cokin would never dream of locking in -400
money for 6 months....
Click to expand...
I tend to think of those type of plays as investments. Basically, you're getting a 25% return on your money in 6 months if the play hits.
 
T

Tim Patterson

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

Heim said:
Tigers are a lock however guys like Cokin would never dream of locking in -400
money for 6 months....
Click to expand...

Heim,
respecting the drifter who was asked while in Vegas if the money he was asking for was going to be used for gambling, "I GOT GAMBLING MONEY". LOL.

By the way, I did hear Cokin say he didn't want to tie up his money for six months.....
I got a chuckle out of that.
 
T

Tim Patterson

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

Mr. Smith said:
for the record, the red sox scored the most runs in baseball last year at 875 and won 90 games even with a putrid last month. red sox were +138 runs scored vs runs allowed which was significantly better than any other team not to make the playoffs and was 4th overall

Buchholz being out most of the year was awful for them.
Click to expand...

Mr smith, excellent counter point...
I do remember the Sox season last year, very well.
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

Tim Patterson said:
Heim,
respecting the drifter who was asked while in Vegas if the money he was asking for was going to be used for gambling, "I GOT GAMBLING MONEY". LOL.

By the way, I did hear Cokin say he didn't want to tie up his money for six months.....
I got a chuckle out of that.
Click to expand...



That was a great show the other night.....Cokin is a great historian on baseball but
his penchant for giving out RL selections shows he can't shake those tout stripes.
Nonetheless a break out season for him last year which means break-even this year.
 
R

rjt721

EOG Master
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

Mr. Smith said:
for the record, the red sox scored the most runs in baseball last year at 875 and won 90 games even with a putrid last month. red sox were +138 runs scored vs runs allowed which was significantly better than any other team not to make the playoffs and was 4th overall

Buchholz being out most of the year was awful for them.
Click to expand...
If Boston gets 90 starts from Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, they're as good as anyone. However, Lester's the only reliable option of the bunch, so it's probably more likely than not that at least one will miss time. And given Boston's relative lack of depth, if one misses an extended period of time, their chances take a significant hit.

One positive - no Lackey this year. Talk about addition by subtraction.
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

I like Under on Angels and Over on Rangers. Would like to see Yu Darvish throw at Puljos head.
 
T

Tim Patterson

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

RJT, excellent info.
Rail, my lean on the Halo's is under, too. I'd worry about the Rangers going over only because they have been lights out for two straight years and at some point at team regresses. So, no opinion on that one for me.
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

really!? the Halos aren't going to win 7 more games this year than last year?

Their hitting was putrid last year with shit power and they won 86. How
many teams have an Ervin Santana type as a #4 starter?
 
C

Cee

2
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

rjt721 said:
If Boston gets 90 starts from Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, they're as good as anyone. However, Lester's the only reliable option of the bunch, so it's probably more likely than not that at least one will miss time. And given Boston's relative lack of depth, if one misses an extended period of time, their chances take a significant hit.

One positive - no Lackey this year. Talk about addition by subtraction.
Click to expand...

I think beckett will have a down year... Since he's an every-other year type guy. But his spring training stats say otherwise. So many wildcards involved with boston this year. Tough for me to get a read on
 
C

Cee

2
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

Tim , what do u think about my nationals over 84? They are my team this year :scooter
 
T

Tim Patterson

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

Cee, no strong opinion either way.

Heim, 93 wins is a lot of wins.
No strong opinion for me on that total.
Gun to my head I'd go under.
But, no gun so no play.
 
ajaysdreamplays

ajaysdreamplays

EOG Addicted
Re: A Few Baseball Props for 2012

Thing is, who's going to lay much coin on a -400 prop? Or even -150? Most guys don't like to see their money tied up that long unless its plus big odds.

Now here's one I kinda like:

[TABLE="class: lines, width: 501"]
<tbody>
  
  

Cleveland Indians

<input id="editx" name="C_83" maxLength="5" size="4"> +1150


</tbody>[/TABLE]


I haven't yet bet it, but I'm thinking hard on it.
 
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