Trend Junkies Unite!

[farbror]

A quick look thru my notes gave some interesting results. Maybe someone "armed" with a proper database could fine tune this analysis:

I simply looked at the game with the highest spread over the last few months. Grabbing the highest number of points turned out nicely:

53-41-2 (56.4%)

In my notes I have kind of an average of the closing lines as presented at Don Best. On days with several dogs with the same number of points given I tokk'em all.

Maybe someone has read about a more detailed analysis of this "No brain" strategy for a daily NBA pick?


I think we've just entered the Year of the Dog according to our oriental firends

 

[The General]

Interesting farb. Thank you for sharing that tidbit w/ us.

 

[farbror]

Thank you!

I only try to contribute to the community in my small ways.

 

[tonyb]

good observation on the big dogs. a good one tonight is new jersey. check out my plays for tonight.

 

[farbror]

Update on "Big Bad Dog" Angle

Update on "Big Bad Dog" Angle

I have tested the approch for a few days and here's the results:

1. NJN +9.5/-108 L
2. WAS +10/-110 W
3. HOU +5/-102 L
4. ATL +14/-105 W
5. BOS +14/-106 W
6. IND +9/+100 W
7. ATL +8.5/-105 W
8. SEA +15/-108 ?
------------------
5-2-0, +2.90

 

[farbror]

Dogs still barking!

Dogs still barking!

My Big Bad Dog angle is still working!

1. NJN +9.5/-108 L
2. WAS +10/-110 W
3. HOU +5/-102 L
4. ATL +14/-105 W
5. BOS +14/-106 W
6. IND +9/+100 W
7. ATL +8.5/-105 W
8. SEA +15/-108 W
9. CLE +8.5/+100 L
10. NYK +15.5/-106 L
11. ORL +8.5/+106 L
12. NYK +11.5/-107 W
13. DAL +5/-107 L
14. ORL +14/-108 W
-----------------------------
8-6-0, +1.77

Decent results from a nobrainer strategy. Also an sneaky way to learn a bit more about the less than stellar teams (and you get an overdose of Knicks' info )



Disclaimer: Most of my friends are Knicks fans. The needeling above is only directed to "you-know-who-you-are"

 

[farbror]

1. NJN +9.5/-108 L
2. WAS +10/-110 W
3. HOU +5/-102 L
4. ATL +14/-105 W
5. BOS +14/-106 W
6. IND +9/+100 W
7. ATL +8.5/-105 W
8. SEA +15/-108 W
9. CLE +8.5/+100 L
10. NYK +15.5/-106 L
11. ORL +8.5/+106 L
12. NYK +11.5/-107 W
13. DAL +5/-107 L
14. ORL +14/-108 W
15. POR +15.5/-102 L
16. POR +12/-105 L
17. CHA +6.5/-101 W
18. POR +16/-108 W
19. CHI +10/-107 W
20. POR +8/-101 ??
-----------------------------
11-8-0, +2.70

Voff-voff!

The Big Bad Dog Theory is still keeping it's nose over the water.

:+thumbs-2

 

[farbror]

Dogs are still barking....

Dogs are still barking....

1. NJN +9.5/-108 L
2. WAS +10/-110 W
3. HOU +5/-102 L
4. ATL +14/-105 W
5. BOS +14/-106 W
6. IND +9/+100 W
7. ATL +8.5/-105 W
8. SEA +15/-108 W
9. CLE +8.5/+100 L
10. NYK +15.5/-106 L
11. ORL +8.5/+106 L
12. NYK +11.5/-107 W
13. DAL +5/-107 L
14. ORL +14/-108 W
15. POR +15.5/-102 L
16. POR +12/-105 L
17. CHA +6.5/-101 W
18. POR +16/-108 W
19. CHI +10/-107 W
20. POR +8/-101 L
21. GS +9/-109 W
22. MIN +12/-101 ??
----------------------------
12-9-0, +2.69

 

[tonyb]

this is a great find but do you think it can continue? remember that the fav/dogs usually end up being pretty close to even when the season is over.

 

[farbror]

Well, we can only hope

I think/fear the win rate will decline a bit but I don't find it hard to believe that this strategy will have a long term positive EV.

This is a very special type of fave which I don't think have been studied in detail (well, It sure has been studied but I have never seen it discussed and not seen any long term data).

Ergo: I don not think we'll see this kind of results in the long run but I think the system will have a positive EV.