New CBB daily including pops69

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CapnHandi

EOG Addicted
I've been working with an outstanding handicapper for some time now and I've automated much of what he used to spend several hours a day doing manually. He uses the handle pops69 and used to post his plays across the street. Now I'm going to post one of his plays daily here for your enjoyment. Usually I don't get his daily picks until around 6PM daily on weekdays and a little before noonish on weekends; check back then if interested.

Also as part of this effort I'm going to post some fruits of my labors on automating pops' methodology. More to come as we continue down this path. One result of this are first half total plays that have been doing exceptionally well; tonight there are 2 - Temple OVER 48 and Memphis UNDER 64.5; my projections for these games show totals of 56 and 57 respectively.<!-- / message -->
 
MadCapper

MadCapper

Head <in> Moderation
Just curious how you got the 57 projection in the Temple game?

Richmond mils the clock every possession. They will have lots of trouble scoring tonight.
 
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CapnHandi

EOG Addicted
MadCapper said:
Just curious how you got the 57 projection in the Temple game?

Richmond mils the clock every possession. They will have lots of trouble scoring tonight.
Click to expand...

I go off of a moving average of a team's past performance. I do this for every game - I've found when I differ by the line by 7.5 or more the win rate is over 60%
 
kelp0027

kelp0027

EOG Dedicated
..

..i've been following pops "across the street" thru college foots and into cbb; when he started hitting at an amazing gr8 rate early in the cbb season:

pops stated he played mainly home teams with low numbers or dogs; especially if the line had moved substantially to make these better odds bets:i.e. against the public...

ty for posting; i hope you can elucidate some of pops methods

gl

:cocktail
 
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CapnHandi

EOG Addicted
pops play for 2/22

pops play for 2/22

you are right kelp - he usually goes against line moves - usually after service plays are released.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:eek:ffice:eek:ffice" /><o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
Tonight he has st joes, and says "almost everyone has fordham, and line opened at 10 and is now around 9"<o:p></o:p>


 
kelp0027

kelp0027

EOG Dedicated
..nice..!! 2/2 wins..!!

..nice..!! 2/2 wins..!!

..

.. hey cap: i cashed 2/2; hard to believe the richmond g went over first h with the lack of contribution offensively by spiders..lol

that mem under 1st h was an iced; stoned ; colded gr8 play

ty

hope you keep um comin'

gl

:+thumbs-2

:cheers
 
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kennyruss

EOG Member
Ok first 2 games I am looking at tonight

Eastern Washington -1.5
Jacksonvillie -1.5

be back later with some thoughts on those 2 picks...

kenny
 
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CapnHandi

EOG Addicted
hi kenny :cheers - he has access to my database so i guess he wants to post here too (he's from scotland so he's still learning about American college basketball)

More on the methodology and the database: I have key information on every team's lined games for the whole season. Based on some logic I developed along with pops, the software generates a short list of potential plays for point spread and totals plays; this logic continues to be improved and refined based on statistical methods. What I'm posting here now are just the first half totals opportunites; last night they were 2-0 but I started from a list of 5 candidates and whittled it down to just 2 based on info in the database as well as other sources. (The other 3 candidates were 1-2)
Thursday night, there are 3 first half totals candidates and I have narrowed it down to just one play: Northeastern Under 67. Both of these teams have tailed off in scoring from their early season performance, particularly in the first half. My data shows that for the last 5 games (H/A respectively) both teams are down 8 points from their full season averages.
 
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kennyruss

EOG Member
kennyruss said:
Ok first 2 games I am looking at tonight

Eastern Washington -1.5
Jacksonvillie -1.5

be back later with some thoughts on those 2 picks...

kenny
Click to expand...

Ok reasons why I am going to play On East Washinton (line is now a pickem)

E.W 5-0 W/L and 5-0 ATS last 5 at home. They have won these games by an average of 10. They have won all 5 conference games at home and only suffered one defeat to San Diego (30 odd places above them in the ratings). Conf Leaders N Arizona suffered there only conf defeat at E.W (12pts). Montana themsleves are a good home team but have struggled recently on the road losing the last 2 conf games to lower conf teams. Second place in the Big Sky is up for grabs tonight. Home Court advantage and momentum should carry E.W through.

JMHO

kenny
 
BlindLuck

BlindLuck

EOG Enthusiast
Greetings Capn, et al

Greetings Capn, et al

Al here. Took me a couple hours but I finally found my way through the sign up procedure. This seems nice. They even have an icon that looks like me with my special glasses on: :+cool-1+
 
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CapnHandi

EOG Addicted
Hi Al! Welcome to EOG. You should like it here - a fine place.

Will be posting pops' play of the day in a few minutes.
 
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CapnHandi

EOG Addicted
pops' play for Thursday, 2/23

pops' play for Thursday, 2/23

He's taking Jacksonville St -2, who is 5-0 ATS their last five road games, over Eastern Illinois (1-4 ATS their last 5 at home). E.Ill. would be 0 for February straight up if they didn't have a worse patsy, SE Mo St on their schedule.

Good luck all
 
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pops69

EOG Member
well much better day than yesterday. i think we lost that e wash game on a 60 ft 3 pointer at the buzzer, or something like that. guess my coin flip between them and cal riv came up on the wrong side.

spent the nite at chuck cheese with 8 million kids, at lease some of the chicks were hot

lot of same names and faces from the past,\

nite all, and gl this weekend

p.s. capt hope you dont mind if i stop by from time to time, and if you got any capping questions just drop them off in the thread

nite all
 
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Atlanta1978

EOG Member
Found you guys! :) Nice to see everyone. Eog seems to be a laid back place. Thank you for the Jacksonville play last night. I look forward to hanging out with you guys in this thread. Let the fun begin :)
 
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CapnHandi

EOG Addicted
Hi Atlanta! Nice to see you here.
The General checks everyone's ID at the door and won't let kids in under 12 (in age or IQ) like they do across the street.

:cheers
 
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CapnHandi

EOG Addicted
Friday, 2/24

Friday, 2/24

Fridays are usually pretty dull with me with the bulk of the action being Ivy League. That should change next Friday with conference tournament action starting. pops went to Harvard and he usually takes Fridays off because "those guys would rather be playing chess."
Stats show one total opportunity of Princeton over 104 for the game but I'm not touching it or recommending it.
I've attached an example of the data sheets we use for tonight's games; there's a description of what the columns mean on the EZSummary sheet.
It's in Excel format and you can download it here if you want to take a look:
http://s60.yousendit.com/d.aspx?id=0M6OG6G4JA63E0Q9CM1H5WSQDR
 
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Atlanta1978

EOG Member
Thanks for having me guys. Cap I was not able to dl the yousendit file for some reason. I didnt know pops went to harvard, good stuff :) I think this may be an nba night for me.
 
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Atlanta1978

EOG Member
Perfect Cap. I have a question, When you are studying the teams cap, is there a reason why you list some teams with more games than others....like harvard with 13 and yale with 17....

Thanks
ATL:D
 
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CapnHandi

EOG Addicted
My database only tracks games that have a line on them - that's one reason I lay off the Ivy League. When Harvard played the Sacred Heart girl's team in November I didn't much care.

I think that yousendit gizmo only allows a limited number of downloads. Thanks for letting me know of the problem Atlanta.
 
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Atlanta1978

EOG Member
Thanks Cap. Glad you and pops stuck the whole day out and found something, alot of people seem to be taking the night off. Still gonna play the princeton over (small play)?
 
Bizzie

Bizzie

2
I played canisius as well got it at 7.5, looking good so far, lets keep it up. good to see some nice cappers around here, with no BS. good luck guys
 
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Atlanta1978

EOG Member
Unbeleivable work you two. Thank you so much for tonight. I didnt end up taking princeton but i did take canisius. You guys are great at what you do.

Atlanta
 
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pops69

EOG Member
guys, the one thing that we really dont need is any kudo's. capt will post regardless. so dont stick your nose up his ass. although any questions are always welcome.

capt, cant believe you called my harvard pick a homer play. have you ever seen me bet a homer play?

got some great funkychunky pretzels at winns tonight. one of the nicer places to go if you come to town.

nite all from lv land
 
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