Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY)

Squarepants

Squarepants

2
Maybe not, Merlin, but I do like to track here in particular the degree of increase in the day-over-day US fatality count . . . of all the wasted bandwidth here on Eye On God-knows-what, perhaps the least offensive . . . .

UNITED STATES
235,747 CONFIRMED CASES
5,624 DEATHS (+1013)

Recapping in reverse chrono: +1013 (21.97%) +1180 (34.4%) +561 (19.5%) +432 (17.7%) +474 (24.1%) +487 (32.97%) +341 (32.2%) +258 (+14.7%) +225 (+55.2%) +145 (+29.5%) +112
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
railbird said:
left wants america broke and people dead.


this could win election for trump
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Going to either win or lose him the election. Need this noncents to end and economy come roaring back before the election. Trump should offer to do an interview in Fredo's basement. He is 100% faking it and I cannot believe unless Twitter is blocking it that nobody else thinks so.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Dell Dude said:
Going to either win or lose him the election. Need this noncents to end and economy come roaring back before the election. Trump should offer to do an interview in Fredo's basement. He is 100% faking it and I cannot believe unless Twitter is blocking it that nobody else thinks so.
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Nobody else is an alt right nut job conspiracy kook, you've thought this whole thing is a hoax from the start, thus your prediction of 700 deaths
 
J

Juan Marichal

EOG Senior Member
Valuist said:
What kind of question is that?
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I made a different post in reply, but I looked at many of your posts and you seem to be a pretty tuned in guy. I deleted what was here before. Disregard my question. I realize you weren't proposing civil war, but saying it is a possibility. Which is fair enough.
 
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Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Fuck it. That's actually not a good line because even if he has it, 1%. I'll give you 100-1! $10 to win $1000. I'll have plenty of Cohen to pay. I am Brian Sheltering in place my income. Let's go with the end of the year grade date.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
As a bonus whore, any cuz of death. May get a suckout and this pos dies in a car crash since he is playing with karma fire.
 
J

Juan Marichal

EOG Senior Member
kane said:
Nobody else is an alt right nut job conspiracy kook, you've thought this whole thing is a hoax from the start, thus your prediction of 700 deaths
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Dell Dude is ok. He is just a screen persona. In real life, he's an airline captain. Now furloughed. Quite rational. He only portrays himself as an alt right wing nut job conspiracy kook because he's compiling a database of people who agree with him on the forums, and then forwarding those names to the TSA. In real life, you and he would be golfing buddies.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Juan is right, kane. In real life Anderson (Cooper) and I are fake news friends with benefits.

Cwissy said:
If I had corona and I had a clean shot at Anderson, I would give him a big wet cough right on his fucking face.
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Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Fredo was supposed to have 2 hours today but a no show. Come on, won time kane. Let me be wrong and he has corona for real.
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Big Deemer becomes the 5th entrant to take the lead. VD and EJD next up, My guesses have been crummy, but I think BD will have the lead for maybe a week.

1585899300564.png
 
jimmythegreek

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
The uptick was long expected especially now that more are bring tested on a daily basis. A whole month and more will seem a lot longer than it actually is. At last look the nationsl fatality rate has increased to some 2.6% from it's initial opening of the first cases of 1.6%. Staying home unless absolutely necessary, and lives will continue to be saved. Can only watch so much news on a daily basis and sticking to my trust and instincts.
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
jimmythegreek said:
The uptick was long expected especially now that more are bring tested on a daily basis. A whole month and more will seem a lot longer than it actually is. At last look the nationsl fatality rate has increased to some 2.6% from it's initial opening of the first cases of 1.6%. Staying home unless absolutely necessary, and lives will continue to be saved. Can only watch so much news on a daily basis and sticking to my trust and instincts.
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Except none of that is true, the death rate is not changing, nor is there any evidence that putting people out of work is the answer, if there was italy would be 90% better by now.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Pop quiz, kane. You open the economy and millions die. You keep the economy closed and we become Cuba. What do you do, kane? What do you do?

 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
I will go first and be honest. I hate Mitt Romney but I would feel very comfortable if he was POTUS right now. Obama, not so much but to avoid Quo Biden, absolutely yes.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Romney better suited than Trump. He's very good at crisis management. Trump is going to need a helping Hand from God to win a suckout. Even God couldn't help Quo.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Dell Dude said:
Pop quiz, kane. You open the economy and millions die. You keep the economy closed and we become Cuba. What do you do, kane? What do you do?

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It's impossible for me to know what I would do given I don't have the data and info the president does. If I were president I would listen to every expert regarding the economy and every expert regarding the virus, and would then sit down with my best advisors, and make a decision that's in the best interest of the American people, not what's in the best interest for me to get re-elcted, but what's best for the country. The main thing I would want to know is, how many additional lives would be lost by re-opening the economy sooner rather than later. Then I would determine if the number of those lives lost is worth it in the long run, this is an extremely difficult situation the president is in, my fear is that he'll do what's best for himself, not what's best for the country
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Dell Dude said:
I will go first and be honest. I hate Mitt Romney but I would feel very comfortable if he was POTUS right now. Obama, not so much but to avoid Quo Biden, absolutely yes.
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You can name almost any republican you want, and I would feel more comfortable with that person than I do with Trump
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
kane said:
It's impossible for me to know what I would do given I don't have the data and info the president does. If I were president I would listen to every expert regarding the economy and every expert regarding the virus, and would then sit down with my best advisors, and make a decision that's in the best interest of the American people, not what's in the best interest for me to get re-elcted, but what's best for the country. The main thing I would want to know is, how many additional lives would be lost by re-opening the economy sooner rather than later. Then I would determine if the number of those lives lost is worth it in the long run, this is an extremely difficult situation the president is in, my fear is that he'll do what's best for himself, not what's best for the country
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It's not that easy. The "experts" are routinely wrong. Models are wrong. Intelligence is wrong. Just look at the Iraq War. Nobody knows how bad it would be if we shut our economy down for 18 months to 2 years because it has never happened before. I'm just going out on a limb and say that would be worse and worse than the worse and worse virus model. And longer. Perhaps forever. There is no option to allow our economy to collapse. If I was POTUS, I would start with that template and then decide what actions to take. You cannot allow our economy to fail. Besides the direct damage to our country, the collateral world damage. The United States is the world's designated survivor. If we fail, it's the planet Earth Hunger Games.
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
Dell Dude said:
It's not that easy. The "experts" are routinely wrong. Models are wrong. Intelligence is wrong. Just look at the Iraq War. Nobody knows how bad it would be if we shut our economy down for 18 months to 2 years because it has never happened before. I'm just going out on a limb and say that would be worse and worse than the worse and worse virus model. And longer. Perhaps forever. There is no option to allow our economy to collapse. If I was POTUS, I would start with that template and then decide what actions to take. You cannot allow our economy to fail. Besides the direct damage to our country, the collateral world damage. The United States is the world's designated survivor. If we fail, it's the planet Earth Hunger Games.
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This is key, everything we've been told up till now has been wrong, tremendously wrong. 10 days ago the NY models predicted there would be 50,000 people hospitalized right now, the actual number is about 14,000. yet policies are being made using those same models.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
The clock is ticking. Right now Trump should not be debating whether and when to turn those machines back on but how to do it. Mass make fucking masks for everybody and make it mandatory. Whatever you gotta do but we need to go and go soon. I am surprised we are still ok. It's been close to 3 weeks. 1 to 2 to 3 to 4 to 5 million people dying is better than 300 million people living in Cuba. I'm willing to sacrifice myself! Fuck it.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Pop up poll. Are you more afraid of the chink virus or an economic collapse the likes of the which the world has ever seen?
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Dell Dude said:
Pop up poll. Are you more afraid of the chink virus or an economic collapse the likes of the which the world has ever seen?
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There's no way we can keep the economy closed till we find a vaccine, 12-18 months will cause the type of dmage we could never recover from, but right now it's still too early to open things back up
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
kane said:
There's no way we can keep the economy closed till we find a vaccine, 12-18 months will cause the type of dmage we could never recover from, but right now it's still too early to open things back up
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yes.

this is a time bomb. but the way I read online is that there are sections of the country where they are still gathering, churches for one, which are causes big breakouts (a city near seattle where 40+ people got the virus from attending a church service) which shows that people can't understand how serious this is which is going to have the national order of a complete shutdown which I cant even imagine the damage this could cause.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
US death rate now over 2.5% despite much more testing, and an ever increasing denominator.

But compared to the European 5 (Italy, Spain, France, UK and Netherlands), 2.5% looks real good compared to their 10% plus.

Right now, JB777 is closest on death rate. I don't think we get to his numbers, however. In terms of pure death numbers, it's between Fair Warning, me and Bomzee IMO..
 
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Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
kane said:
There's no way we can keep the economy closed till we find a vaccine, 12-18 months will cause the type of dmage we could never recover from, but right now it's still too early to open things back up
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Johnny Fairplay answer. I think it's the wrong strategy because it won't prevent 100% infection rate but a legitimate strategy. This thing will not stop until mob immunity or a vaccine.
 
S

SlipperyPete

EOG Dedicated
As I wrote before, you gotta be able to treat the treatables.

Once you can do that, we can reopen.---- get cracking on the ventilators

And as Ivan Drago said: 'if he dies.... he dies'
 
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