The general thinking is that of those who get sick enough to get tested(far less than half of infections), about 15% are hospitalized, of those maybe half end up in the ICU, of those maybe half die.But totals cases are not resolved. I think the death percentage is way higher than fucking 1%. It's clocking in over 50% with *resolved cases.
But totals cases are not resolved. I think the death percentage is way higher than fucking 1%. It's clocking in over 50% with *resolved cases.
Just give it to the old sand banger. Crown his ass!
i guarantee any 90 plus yr old who died of COPD in NYC cause of death will be Wuhan virus if it is true or not. and most cases not.
'It's gonna either be Fair Warning, myself, or Bomzee.
I have a feeling its gonna be a long, long contest. For contrast, I'll take the other side with JK, Abundy and jb777.
I'm sending my resume to the CDC and the WHO.
Only one problem: I don't know the difference between a microbe and an enzyme.
However, one can attempt to provide some coarse estimations of the “effective/apparent” values of these epidemiological parameters based on the reported confirmed cases using an assumption and approach described in the next section.
either do theyI'm sending my résumé to the CDC and the WHO.
Only one problem: I don't know the difference between a microbe and an enzyme.
You are still qualified
What exactly is the scoring criteria anyways? Are deaths weighted heavier (as they should be) than cases?
I'll be glad to do the grading, however I think I need to clarify/modify the formula given by EJD.
Restatement 1, add paren after deaths: Grading formula is (difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + (difference between prediction and actual number of deaths) x 25
First, his example, the score is 1000000 -1150000 + (10000 -12000) x 25 = -200,000.
Restatement 2, use absolute value of the differences so score is always non-negative: Grading formula thus is abs(difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + abs(difference between prediction and actual number of deaths) x 25
Deadline is Thursday 11:59PM CT, thus 9:59PM PT tonight, 12:59AM ET, Friday morning.
Will look for EJD's concurrence.
5 million cases
50,000 deaths
Not a good time to be a modeler.
#Exposed
If CDC modelers were forced to make a living in Las Vegas, they'd be working for the house, not living "on the house."